Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data

The threat posed by the highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza virus requires public health authorities to prepare for a human pandemic. Although pre-pandemic vaccines and antiviral drugs might significantly reduce illness rates, their stockpiling is too expensive to be practical for many countries. Consequently, alternative control strategies, based on non-pharmaceutical interventions, are a potentially attractive policy option. School closure is the measure most often considered. The high social and economic costs of closing schools for months make it an expensive and therefore controversial policy, and the current absence of quantitative data on the role of schools during influenza epidemics means there is little consensus on the probable effectiveness of school closure in reducing the impact of a pandemic. Here, from the joint analysis of surveillance data and holiday timing in France, we quantify the role of schools in influenza epidemics and predict the effect of school closure during a pandemic. We show that holidays lead to a 20-29% reduction in the rate at which influenza is transmitted to children, but that they have no detectable effect on the contact patterns of adults. Holidays prevent 16-18% of seasonal influenza cases (18-21% in children). By extrapolation, we find that prolonged school closure during a pandemic might reduce the cumulative number of cases by 13-17% (18-23% in children) and peak attack rates by up to 39-45% (47-52% in children). The impact of school closure would be reduced if it proved difficult to maintain low contact rates among children for a prolonged period.     

Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic

Development of strategies for mitigating the severity of a new influenza pandemic is now a top global public health priority. Influenza prevention and containment strategies can be considered under the broad categories of antiviral, vaccine and non-pharmaceutical (case isolation, household quarantine, school or workplace closure, restrictions on travel) measures. Mathematical models are powerful tools for exploring this complex landscape of intervention strategies and quantifying the potential costs and benefits of different options. Here we use a large-scale epidemic simulation to examine intervention options should initial containment of a novel influenza outbreak fail, using Great Britain and the United States as examples. We find that border restrictions and/or internal travel restrictions are unlikely to delay spread by more than 2-3 weeks unless more than 99% effective. School closure during the peak of a pandemic can reduce peak attack rates by up to 40%, but has little impact on overall attack rates, whereas case isolation or household quarantine could have a significant impact, if feasible. Treatment of clinical cases can reduce transmission, but only if antivirals are given within a day of symptoms starting. Given enough drugs for 50% of the population, household-based prophylaxis coupled with reactive school closure could reduce clinical attack rates by 40-50%. More widespread prophylaxis would be even more logistically challenging but might reduce attack rates by over 75%. Vaccine stockpiled in advance of a pandemic could significantly reduce attack rates even if of low efficacy. Estimates of policy effectiveness will change if the characteristics of a future pandemic strain differ substantially from those seen in past pandemics.     

Drosophila RNAi screen identifies host genes important for influenza virus replication

All viruses rely on host cell proteins and their associated mechanisms to complete the viral life cycle. Identifying the host molecules that participate in each step of virus replication could provide valuable new targets for antiviral therapy, but this goal may take several decades to achieve with conventional forward genetic screening methods and mammalian cell cultures. Here we describe a novel genome-wide RNA interference (RNAi) screen in Drosophila that can be used to identify host genes important for influenza virus replication. After modifying influenza virus to allow infection of Drosophila cells and detection of influenza virus gene expression, we tested an RNAi library against 13,071 genes (90% of the Drosophila genome), identifying over 100 for which suppression in Drosophila cells significantly inhibited or stimulated reporter gene (Renilla luciferase) expression from an influenza-virus-derived vector. The relevance of these findings to influenza virus infection of mammalian cells is illustrated for a subset of the Drosophila genes identified; that is, for three implicated Drosophila genes, the corresponding human homologues ATP6V0D1, COX6A1 and NXF1 are shown to have key functions in the replication of H5N1 and H1N1 influenza A viruses, but not vesicular stomatitis virus or vaccinia virus, in human HEK 293 cells. Thus, we have demonstrated the feasibility of using genome-wide RNAi screens in Drosophila to identify previously unrecognized host proteins that are required for influenza virus replication. This could accelerate the development of new classes of antiviral drugs for chemoprophylaxis and treatment, which are urgently needed given the obstacles to rapid development of an effective vaccine against pandemic influenza and the probable emergence of strains resistant to available drugs.     

Crystal structures of oseltamivir-resistant influenza virus neuraminidase mutants

The potential impact of pandemic influenza makes effective measures to limit the spread and morbidity of virus infection a public health priority. Antiviral drugs are seen as essential requirements for control of initial influenza outbreaks caused by a new virus, and in pre-pandemic plans there is a heavy reliance on drug stockpiles. The principal target for these drugs is a virus surface glycoprotein, neuraminidase, which facilitates the release of nascent virus and thus the spread of infection. Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and zanamivir (Relenza) are two currently used neuraminidase inhibitors that were developed using knowledge of the enzyme structure. It has been proposed that the closer such inhibitors resemble the natural substrate, the less likely they are to select drug-resistant mutant viruses that retain viability. However, there have been reports of drug-resistant mutant selection in vitro and from infected humans. We report here the enzymatic properties and crystal structures of neuraminidase mutants from H5N1-infected patients that explain the molecular basis of resistance. Our results show that these mutants are resistant to oseltamivir but still strongly inhibited by zanamivir owing to an altered hydrophobic pocket in the active site of the enzyme required for oseltamivir binding. Together with recent reports of the viability and pathogenesis of H5N1 (ref. 7) and H1N1 (ref. 8) viruses with neuraminidases carrying these mutations, our results indicate that it would be prudent for pandemic stockpiles of oseltamivir to be augmented by additional antiviral drugs, including zanamivir.     

Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza

The 1918 influenza pandemic killed 20-40 million people worldwide, and is seen as a worst-case scenario for pandemic planning. Like other pandemic influenza strains, the 1918 A/H1N1 strain spread extremely rapidly. A measure of transmissibility and of the stringency of control measures required to stop an epidemic is the reproductive number, which is the number of secondary cases produced by each primary case. Here we obtained an estimate of the reproductive number for 1918 influenza by fitting a deterministic SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model to pneumonia and influenza death epidemic curves from 45 US cities: the median value is less than three. The estimated proportion of the population with A/H1N1 immunity before September 1918 implies a median basic reproductive number of less than four. These results strongly suggest that the reproductive number for 1918 pandemic influenza is not large relative to many other infectious diseases. In theory, a similar novel influenza subtype could be controlled. But because influenza is frequently transmitted before a specific diagnosis is possible and there is a dearth of global antiviral and vaccine stores, aggressive transmission reducing measures will probably be required.     

2021年新冠病毒变异、跨种传播及疫苗和药物研究热点回眸

概括了新冠病毒主要变异毒株的分类、时空分布和流行动态,以及关键变异位点和其对病毒生物学特性的影响;阐述了2021年新冠病毒基因进化起源研究进展和新冠病毒在人和动物间跨种传播的风险;论述了2021年新冠疫苗和药物的研发和使用现状,以及不完全免疫保护形势下病毒可能的变异动向;提出了疫情防控、病毒流行监测和疫苗药物研发的相应...     

The structure of H5N1 avian influenza neuraminidase suggests new opportunities for drug design

The worldwide spread of H5N1 avian influenza has raised concerns that this virus might acquire the ability to pass readily among humans and cause a pandemic. Two anti-influenza drugs currently being used to treat infected patients are oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and zanamivir (Relenza), both of which target the neuraminidase enzyme of the virus. Reports of the emergence of drug resistance make the development of new anti-influenza molecules a priority. Neuraminidases from influenza type A viruses form two genetically distinct groups: group-1 contains the N1 neuraminidase of the H5N1 avian virus and group-2 contains the N2 and N9 enzymes used for the structure-based design of current drugs. Here we show by X-ray crystallography that these two groups are structurally distinct. Group-1 neuraminidases contain a cavity adjacent to their active sites that closes on ligand binding. Our analysis suggests that it may be possible to exploit the size and location of the group-1 cavity to develop new anti-influenza drugs.     

Experimental adaptation of an influenza H5 HA confers respiratory droplet transmission to a reassortant H5 HA/H1N1 virus in ferrets

Highly pathogenic avian H5N1 influenza A viruses occasionally infect humans, but currently do not transmit efficiently among humans. The viral haemagglutinin (HA) protein is a known host-range determinant as it mediates virus binding to host-specific cellular receptors. Here we assess the molecular changes in HA that would allow a virus possessing subtype H5 HA to be transmissible among mammals. We identified a reassortant H5 HA/H1N1 virus-comprising H5 HA (from an H5N1 virus) with four mutations and the remaining seven gene segments from a 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus-that was capable of droplet transmission in a ferret model. The transmissible H5 reassortant virus preferentially recognized human-type receptors, replicated efficiently in ferrets, caused lung lesions and weight loss, but was not highly pathogenic and did not cause mortality. These results indicate that H5 HA can convert to an HA that supports efficient viral transmission in mammals; however, we do not know whether the four mutations in the H5 HA identified here would render a wholly avian H5N1 virus transmissible. The genetic origin of the remaining seven viral gene segments may also critically contribute to transmissibility in mammals. Nevertheless, as H5N1 viruses continue to evolve and infect humans, receptor-binding variants of H5N1 viruses with pandemic potential, including avian-human reassortant viruses as tested here, may emerge. Our findings emphasize the need to prepare for potential pandemics caused by influenza viruses possessing H5 HA, and will help individuals conducting surveillance in regions with circulating H5N1 viruses to recognize key residues that predict the pandemic potential of isolates, which will inform the development, production and distribution of effective countermeasures.     

The novel H1N1 Influenza A global airline transmission and early warning without travel containments

A novel influenza A (H1N1) has been spreading worldwide. Early studies implied that international air travels might be key cause of a severe potential pandemic without appropriate containments. In this study, early outbreaks in Mexico and some cities of United States were used to estimate the preliminary epidemic parameters by applying adjusted SEIR epidemiological model, indicating transmissibility infectivity of the virus. According to the findings, a new spatial allocation model totally based on the real-time airline data was established to assess the potential spreading of H1N1 from Mexico to the world. Our estimates find the basic reproductive number R0 of H1N1 is around 3.4, and the effective reproductive number fall sharply by effective containment strategies. The finding also implies Spain, Canada, France, Panama, Peru are the most possible country to be involved in severe endemic H1N1 spreading.     

Epidemiological and risk analysis of the H7N9 subtype influenza outbreak in China at its early stage

Dozens of human cases infected with H7N9 subtype avian influenza virus (AIV) have been confirmed in China since March, 2013. Distribution data of sexes, ages, professions and regions of the cases were analyzed in this report. The results showed that the elderly cases, especially the male elderly, were significantly more than expected, which is different from human cases of H5N1 avian influenza and human cases of the pandemic H1N1 influenza. The outbreak was rated as a Grade Ⅲ (severe) outbreak, and it would evolve into a Grade IV (very severe) outbreak soon, using a method reported previously. The H7N9 AIV will probably circulate in humans, birds and pigs for years. Moreover, with the driving force of natural selection, the virus will probably evolve into highly pathogenic AIV in birds, and into a deadly pandemic influenza virus in humans. Therefore, the H7N9 outbreak has been assumed severe, and it is likely to become very or extremely severe in the future, highlighting the emergent need of forceful scientific measures to eliminate any infected animal flocks. We also described two possible mild scenarios of the future evolution of the outbreak.     

Aberrant innate immune response in lethal infection of macaques with the 1918 influenza virus

The 1918 influenza pandemic was unusually severe, resulting in about 50 million deaths worldwide. The 1918 virus is also highly pathogenic in mice, and studies have identified a multigenic origin of this virulent phenotype in mice. However, these initial characterizations of the 1918 virus did not address the question of its pathogenic potential in primates. Here we demonstrate that the 1918 virus caused a highly pathogenic respiratory infection in a cynomolgus macaque model that culminated in acute respiratory distress and a fatal outcome. Furthermore, infected animals mounted an immune response, characterized by dysregulation of the antiviral response, that was insufficient for protection, indicating that atypical host innate immune responses may contribute to lethality. The ability of influenza viruses to modulate host immune responses, such as that demonstrated for the avian H5N1 influenza viruses, may be a feature shared by the virulent influenza viruses.     

Haemagglutinin mutations responsible for the binding of H5N1 influenza A viruses to human-type receptors

H5N1 influenza A viruses have spread to numerous countries in Asia, Europe and Africa, infecting not only large numbers of poultry, but also an increasing number of humans, often with lethal effects. Human and avian influenza A viruses differ in their recognition of host cell receptors: the former preferentially recognize receptors with saccharides terminating in sialic acid-alpha2,6-galactose (SAalpha2,6Gal), whereas the latter prefer those ending in SAalpha2,3Gal (refs 3-6). A conversion from SAalpha2,3Gal to SAalpha2,6Gal recognition is thought to be one of the changes that must occur before avian influenza viruses can replicate efficiently in humans and acquire the potential to cause a pandemic. By identifying mutations in the receptor-binding haemagglutinin (HA) molecule that would enable avian H5N1 viruses to recognize human-type host cell receptors, it may be possible to predict (and thus to increase preparedness for) the emergence of pandemic viruses. Here we show that some H5N1 viruses isolated from humans can bind to both human and avian receptors, in contrast to those isolated from chickens and ducks, which recognize the avian receptors exclusively. Mutations at positions 182 and 192 independently convert the HAs of H5N1 viruses known to recognize the avian receptor to ones that recognize the human receptor. Analysis of the crystal structure of the HA from an H5N1 virus used in our genetic experiments shows that the locations of these amino acids in the HA molecule are compatible with an effect on receptor binding. The amino acid changes that we identify might serve as molecular markers for assessing the pandemic potential of H5N1 field isolates.     

Special features of the 2009 pandemic swine-origin influenza A H1N1 hemagglutinin and neuraminidase

Since the 2009 pandemic H1N1 swine-origin influenza A virus (09 S-OIV) has reminded the world about the global threat of the ever changing influenza virus,many questions regarding the detailed re-assortment of influenza viruses yet remain unanswered.Influenza A virus is the causative agent of the pandemic flu and contains 2 major antigenic glycoproteins on its surface:(i) hemagglutinin (HA);and (ii) neuraminidase (NA).The structures of the 09 S-OIV HA and NA proteins (09H1 and 09N1) have recently been resolved in our laboratory and provide some clues as to why the 09 S-OIV re-assortment virus is highly infectious with severe consequences in humans.For example,the 09H1 is highly similar to the HA of the 1918 influenza A pandemic virus in overall structure and especially in regards to its 5 defined antibody binding epitopes.For 09N1,its most distinctive feature is the lack of a 150-loop active site cavity,which was previously predicted to be present in all N1 NAs,and we hypothesize that the 150-loop may play a important role in the substrate specificity (α2,3 or α2,6 linked sialic acid receptors) and enzymatic mechanism of influenza NA.Combination of the HA and NA with special characteristics for the 09 S-OIV might contribute to its high increased transmissibility in humans.     

Genomic analysis of increased host immune and cell death responses induced by 1918 influenza virus

The influenza pandemic of 1918-19 was responsible for about 50 million deaths worldwide. Modern histopathological analysis of autopsy samples from human influenza cases from 1918 revealed significant damage to the lungs with acute, focal bronchitis and alveolitis associated with massive pulmonary oedema, haemorrhage and rapid destruction of the respiratory epithelium. The contribution of the host immune response leading to this severe pathology remains largely unknown. Here we show, in a comprehensive analysis of the global host response induced by the 1918 influenza virus, that mice infected with the reconstructed 1918 influenza virus displayed an increased and accelerated activation of host immune response genes associated with severe pulmonary pathology. We found that mice infected with a virus containing all eight genes from the pandemic virus showed marked activation of pro-inflammatory and cell-death pathways by 24 h after infection that remained unabated until death on day 5. This was in contrast with smaller host immune responses as measured at the genomic level, accompanied by less severe disease pathology and delays in death in mice infected with influenza viruses containing only subsets of 1918 genes. The results indicate a cooperative interaction between the 1918 influenza genes and show that study of the virulence of the 1918 influenza virus requires the use of the fully reconstructed virus. With recent concerns about the introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses into humans and their potential to cause a worldwide pandemic with disastrous health and economic consequences, a comprehensive understanding of the global host response to the 1918 virus is crucial. Moreover, understanding the contribution of host immune responses to virulent influenza virus infections is an important starting point for the identification of prognostic indicators and the development of novel antiviral therapies.     

Genesis of a highly pathogenic and potentially pandemic H5N1 influenza virus in eastern Asia

A highly pathogenic avian influenza virus, H5N1, caused disease outbreaks in poultry in China and seven other east Asian countries between late 2003 and early 2004; the same virus was fatal to humans in Thailand and Vietnam. Here we demonstrate a series of genetic reassortment events traceable to the precursor of the H5N1 viruses that caused the initial human outbreak in Hong Kong in 1997 (refs 2-4) and subsequent avian outbreaks in 2001 and 2002 (refs 5, 6). These events gave rise to a dominant H5N1 genotype (Z) in chickens and ducks that was responsible for the regional outbreak in 2003-04. Our findings indicate that domestic ducks in southern China had a central role in the generation and maintenance of this virus, and that wild birds may have contributed to the increasingly wide spread of the virus in Asia. Our results suggest that H5N1 viruses with pandemic potential have become endemic in the region and are not easily eradicable. These developments pose a threat to public and veterinary health in the region and potentially the world, and suggest that long-term control measures are required.     

Neutralizing antibodies derived from the B cells of 1918 influenza pandemic survivors

Investigation of the human antibody response to influenza virus infection has been largely limited to serology, with relatively little analysis at the molecular level. The 1918 H1N1 influenza virus pandemic was the most severe of the modern era. Recent work has recovered the gene sequences of this unusual strain, so that the 1918 pandemic virus could be reconstituted to display its unique virulence phenotypes. However, little is known about adaptive immunity to this virus. We took advantage of the 1918 virus sequencing and the resultant production of recombinant 1918 haemagglutinin (HA) protein antigen to characterize at the clonal level neutralizing antibodies induced by natural exposure of survivors to the 1918 pandemic virus. Here we show that of the 32 individuals tested that were born in or before 1915, each showed seroreactivity with the 1918 virus, nearly 90 years after the pandemic. Seven of the eight donor samples tested had circulating B cells that secreted antibodies that bound the 1918 HA. We isolated B cells from subjects and generated five monoclonal antibodies that showed potent neutralizing activity against 1918 virus from three separate donors. These antibodies also cross-reacted with the genetically similar HA of a 1930 swine H1N1 influenza strain, but did not cross-react with HAs of more contemporary human influenza viruses. The antibody genes had an unusually high degree of somatic mutation. The antibodies bound to the 1918 HA protein with high affinity, had exceptional virus-neutralizing potency and protected mice from lethal infection. Isolation of viruses that escaped inhibition suggested that the antibodies recognize classical antigenic sites on the HA surface. Thus, these studies demonstrate that survivors of the 1918 influenza pandemic possess highly functional, virus-neutralizing antibodies to this uniquely virulent virus, and that humans can sustain circulating B memory cells to viruses for many decades after exposure-well into the tenth decade of life.     

人源甲型H1N1流感HA基因进化特征分析

为了探究2009年3月至8月流感大爆发期间的人源甲型H1N1流感病毒的进化特征,提出了一种图形化表达病毒序列的方法,该方法将甲型H1N1流感病毒HA基因的符号序列数字化表达后,利用主成分分析（PCA）将高维数值序列的维度大幅度降低为二维,将低维的数值序列图形化表达在平面和空间中。在序列的图形化表达基础上,对2009年3月到8月收集的三千多个流感病毒样本做了新旧病毒的区分,筛选出了新型病毒菌株,并根据图形探究了甲型H1N1流感病毒在时间序列上的进化特征。     

IFITM3 restricts the morbidity and mortality associated with influenza

The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic showed the speed with which a novel respiratory virus can spread and the ability of a generally mild infection to induce severe morbidity and mortality in a subset of the population. Recent in vitro studies show that the interferon-inducible transmembrane (IFITM) protein family members potently restrict the replication of multiple pathogenic viruses. Both the magnitude and breadth of the IFITM proteins' in vitro effects suggest that they are critical for intrinsic resistance to such viruses, including influenza viruses. Using a knockout mouse model, we now test this hypothesis directly and find that IFITM3 is essential for defending the host against influenza A virus in vivo. Mice lacking Ifitm3 display fulminant viral pneumonia when challenged with a normally low-pathogenicity influenza virus, mirroring the destruction inflicted by the highly pathogenic 1918 'Spanish' influenza. Similar increased viral replication is seen in vitro, with protection rescued by the re-introduction of Ifitm3. To test the role of IFITM3 in human influenza virus infection, we assessed the IFITM3 alleles of individuals hospitalized with seasonal or pandemic influenza H1N1/09 viruses. We find that a statistically significant number of hospitalized subjects show enrichment for a minor IFITM3 allele (SNP rs12252-C) that alters a splice acceptor site, and functional assays show the minor CC genotype IFITM3 has reduced influenza virus restriction in vitro. Together these data reveal that the action of a single intrinsic immune effector, IFITM3, profoundly alters the course of influenza virus infection in mouse and humans.     

Avian flu: isolation of drug-resistant H5N1 virus

The persistence of H5N1 avian influenza viruses in many Asian countries and their ability to cause fatal infections in humans have raised serious concerns about a global flu pandemic. Here we report the isolation of an H5N1 virus from a Vietnamese girl that is resistant to the drug oseltamivir, which is an inhibitor of the viral enzyme neuraminidase and is currently used for protection against and treatment of influenza. Further investigation is necessary to determine the prevalence of oseltamivir-resistant H5N1 viruses among patients treated with this drug.     

Avian flu: multiple introductions of H5N1 in Nigeria

As the avian influenza virus H5N1 swept from Asia across Russia to Europe, Nigeria was the first country in Africa to report the emergence of this highly pathogenic virus. Here we analyse H5N1 sequences in poultry from two different farms in Lagos state and find that three H5N1 lineages were independently introduced through routes that coincide with the flight paths of migratory birds, although independent trade imports cannot be excluded.