Societal response to challenges of global change and human sustainable development

It is now widely accepted that carbon emission from human activities is an important driving force in global warming, and global change has a deep impact on sustainable development of human society. To meet the challenges of global change, the international community has reached a consensus that developed countries take strict actions in emission reduction, whereas developing countries take spontaneous efforts in reducing emissions under the guiding principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, with an agreed goal to restrict global surface temperature increase due to human activities to within 2℃ of pre-industrial levels. However, there is no clear pathway to reach this goal. A number of related questions must be addressed on principles to be followed, research emphasis and policy measures. Here we argue that response policies to address global change issues must be based on balanced development at regional and international levels, and on advancements in science and technology. This requires consideration of harmony not only between humans and nature but also within human societies, to properly deal with the relationship between global change and sustainable development. We must make equal efforts toward carbon emission reduction and carbon sequestration, and toward mitigation and adaptation. There should be more research support to reduce uncertainties in our understanding of global change. Addressing the challenges of global change creates great opportunities for the development of human society. This will facilitate transformation of energy use structure, improve and restore ecological functioning of the earth environment, transform production modes and ways of living in human society, and promote harmonic and balanced development at regional and international levels.     

Influence of the carbon cycle on the attribution of responsibility for climate change

The carbon cycle is one of the fundamental climate change issues.Its long-term evolution largely affects the amplitude and trend of human-induced climate change,as well as the formulation and implementation of emission reduction policy and technology for stabilizing the atmospheric CO2concentration.Two earth system models incorporating the global carbon cycle,the Community Earth System Model and the Beijing Normal University-Earth System Model,were used to investigate the effect of the carbon cycle on the attribution of the historical responsibility for climate change.The simulations show that when compared with the criterion based on cumulative emissions,the developed(developing)countries’responsibility is reduced(increased)by 6%–10%using atmospheric CO2concentration as the criterion.This discrepancy is attributed to the fact that the developed world contributed approximately61%–68%(61%–64%)to the change in global oceanic(terrestrial)carbon sequestration for the period from 1850 to2005,whereas the developing world contributed approximately 32%–49%(36%–39%).Under a developed world emissions scenario,the relatively larger uptake of global carbon sinks reduced the developed countries’responsibility for carbon emissions but increased their responsibility for global ocean acidification(68%).In addition,the large emissions from the developed world reduced the efficiency of the global carbon sinks,which may affect the long-term carbon sequestration and exacerbate global warming in the future.Therefore,it is necessary to further consider the interaction between carbon emissions and the carbon cycle when formulating emission reduction policy.     

Low-carbon Scenario and Technologies in Modern City

From a multi-dimensional perspective of economic development,carbon dioxide and industrial pollutant emission and resource consumption in the case study of Shenyang,this paper analyzes the resource consumption and environmental impact in the process of urban economic development and low-carbon transition and evaluates the emission reduction potential and scenario of various technologies. The results show that city plays a key role in global low-carbon economic construction,and it is pointed out that emission reduction technology in urban scale can reduce total amount of carbon emission to substantial extent. From the aspect of future development,the input of technology and economic growth pattern should be strengthened so as to realize economic development as well as the total amount reduction of pollutant emission.     

The Land Subsidence and Relative Sea Level Rise in Chinese Delta Areas

Based on some experts‘ research effort, the problems of land subsidence and relative sea level rise in three Chinese delta areas(Huanghe, Changjiang and Zhujiang Delta) are analyzed and discussed in this paper. The authors‘ opinion is that the land subsidence is mainly induced by human activity and has made the greater contributions to the relative sea level rise and become one of the geological hazards in these areas. In Tianjin and Shanghai areas where had ever existed serious land subsidence problem, due to the positive and effective control methods, the ratio of man-induced land subsidence to relative sea level rise decreased from 80% - 90% in 1960s - 1970s to less than 60% at present. But it is estimated that in the next tens of years this ratio will still be considerable. So human being must keep its eyes on this phenomenon and take more positive countermeasures to control the land subsidenee.     

Retrospect and prospect: advances and future strategies in climate research

A brief review of the progress in climate research and a prospect on its further development in the 21st century is presented. Some key findings including the concept of climate system, the discovery of climatic multi-equilibrium and abrupt climate changes, and the recognition of human activities as an important force of climate change made breakthroughs in climatology possible during last few decades. The adaptation to climatic and global change emerged as a new aspect of climatic research during the 1990s. Climate research will break through in the observation of the global system, in the analysis of mass data, in the deepening of research on the mechanism of climatic change, and in the improvement of models. In the applied fields of climate research, there will be substantial progress in the research on adaptation to global change and sustainable development, on orderly human activities, and climate modification.     

DEVELOPMENT MODEL OF TEXTILE COMPLEX -A CASE OF HONG KONG

Experience of industrialized countries revealed that there exists a generalized pattern in the development of textile complex in the world. A model proposed by Toyne et al. was found to be generally acceptable. However, the development of this model was primarily based on observation rather than supported by empirical evidence. It is the aim of this research, by using the generalized model, to determine the development pattern of the Hong Kong textile complex. It was revealed that the local development process had both conformance and inconsistencies when compared with the model. The inconsistencies, in particular, provide implications to the application of the model in describing the global situation.     

BLEACHING OF SULFONATED CMP FROM BIO-TREATED WHEAT STRAW

INTRODUCTIONThe increasing consumption of paper and paper board all over the world and the more and more serious legislative constraints on forest resources intensify the shortage of pulping materials. Agricultural residues such as wheat straw are of increasing interests in countries and areas which have abundant plantation of agricultures and are lack of wood supply. One of the problems associated with the wheat straw pulp was the low pulp yield and low bleachability relative to wood pulp…     

Material removal model for non-contact chemical mechanical polishing

Material removal mechanism under non-contact condition between the pad and the wafer in the chemical mechanical polishing （CMP） process is investigated. Based on the assumption that almost all effective material removals take place due to the active abrasives which cut material through the plowing effects. A novel model is developed to predict the material removal rate （MRR） under non-contact condition between the pad and the wafer in CMP. Validated by the experimental data, the model is proved to be able to predict the change of MRR under non-contact condition. Numerical simulation of the model shows： the relative velocity u between the pad and the wafer and fluid viscosity 7/are the most important factors which impact MRR under non-contact condition; load changes of wa- fer also affects the MRR, but the effect is not as obvious as the relative velocity and fluid viscosity; when the radius of abrasive is not less than 50nm, the impact of MRRalone with the changes in the size of the abrasive can be ignored.     

Monitoring and analysis of nonlinear dynamic damage of transport roadway supported by composite hard rock materials in Linglong Gold Mine

The study concentrates mainly on the development of failure process in composite rock mass. By use of acoustic emission (AE), convergence inspection, pressure monitoring, level measurement techniques and the modem signal analysis technology, as well as scan electron microscopy (SEM) experiment, various aspects of nonlinear dynamic damage of composite rock mass surrounding the transport roadway in Linglong gold mine are discussed. According to the monitoring results, the stability of the rock mass can be synthetically evaluated, and the intrinsic relation between the damage and the characteristic parameters of acoustic emission can be determined. The location of the damage of rock mass can also be detected based on the acoustic emission couple monitoring signals. Finally, the key factors which influence the stability of the transport roadway supported by composite hard rock materials are found out.     

Fluxes of carbon dioxide and methane from swamp and impact factors in Sanjiang Plain,China

Incomplete decomposition of organic matter results in the accumulation of the carbon and other nutriments in wetlands. The wetland ecosystem gains a large amount of carbon from atmosphere CO2 by photosynthesis, and it loses much of which back into the atmosphere as CO2 and CH4 emission through the decomposition and respiration. Climate change, such as global warming and reduction of precipitation could drive the wetlands from carbon sink to source[1,2]. Wetland plays an important role in car…     

Impact of technology advances on China’s CO2 emission reduction

Global warming tends to be the major characteristics of the dramatic global climate change. To deal with these changes, the impact of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission on Chinese future economic and social development has to be assessed. In this paper, a Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE), which is well known and accepted widely, has been used for Chinese economic assessment of climate change after introduction, assimilation and verification. Based on a sensitivity analysis of technical parameters in the RICE model and constrained targets proposed for energy saving and emissions reduction technological advance programs of China from 2000 to 2050, the economic impact of the programs is examined. The results indicate that when technology advances, Chinese CO₂ emission, climate loss, and the growth rate of atmospheric CO₂ concentration and temperature will all decrease. It is assumed that in 2010, the CO₂ emission is 20% lower than in 2005, CO₂emission in 2050 would only double the level in 2000, the accumulative CO₂ emission would be decreased by 12.4 GtC, and the atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature in 2050 would reduce by 35 GtC and 0.04°C respectively from 2000 to 2050. The accumulative climate loss from 2000 to 2050 will drop down by 4.6 billion dollar, which only accounts for 6% of the global total benefits. However, the economic benefit the developed countries will obtain is 10 times that for China under such a technological advance scenario. The decrease of the CO₂ emission control rate is 1% in cooperation policy while 4.6% in non-cooperation policy, which would relieve China’s burden in the control of CO₂ total emission and thereby benefit China in participation of the international cooperation for CO₂ emission reduction.     

我国产业结构演进对碳减排的贡献程度

为定量测算产业结构对碳减排的贡献程度,根据2000—2009年的GDP相关数据,在产业结构自然演进情景下,采用因素分析模型和时间序列模型,预测2020年的GDP相关数据,并测算各产业增加值所占GDP的比重及能源强度。结果显示:自然演进情景下产业结构对2020年实现全国碳减排目标的贡献率仅为35.86%。基于产业结构自然演进下无法实现碳减排目标的现实,拟定产业结构加快调整情景。比较分析两种情景所得数据,结果表明产业结构调整必须结合其他影响能源强度的因素共同作用才能达到减排目标。该研究为制定有效的碳减排措施提供了参考。     

基于终端能源消费的中国工业部门碳排放初始配额分配研究

碳排放权初始配额分配是碳排放权交易市场有效开展的前提。工业部门是能源管理和碳排放总量控制的重点领域,且不同行业的发展水平、碳排放强度、减排潜力等方面都各不相同。行业配额分配作为一种有效的分配机制对碳市场建设具有重要的现实意义。研究基于公平与效率原则建立了历史累计碳排放、工业产值、碳强度、技术投入、出口程度等5个指标,并运用灰色关联-极大熵模型对中国2030年的工业部门碳排放进行了配额分配研究。     

中国的二氧化碳边际减排成本

应用能源、环境、经济耦合的中国 MARKAL-MACRO模型对 2 0 10到 2 0 5 0年中国的碳边际减排成本进行系统研究。给出 2 0 10、 2 0 2 0、 2 0 30、 2 0 4 0与 2 0 5 0年碳边际减排成本曲线的函数形式 ,分析不同的碳减排实施方式、减排实施起始年、以及限制核电发展等对碳边际减排成本的影响。研究结果表明 :中国的碳边际减排成本是相当高的 ,当减排率在 0 %～ 4 5 %时 ,碳边际减排成本在 0～ 2 5 0美元 / t之间 ;而且越早开始实施碳减排约束 ,在等同的减排量下碳边际减排成本将越高 ;限制核电的发展将进一步增大碳边际减排成本     

海平面上升及其对上海市可持续发展的影响

根据已有研究表明，全球海平面在未来的几十年内仍将持续上升，自1990-2100年，全球绝对海平面将上升9～88cm，对于上海市，由于其特殊的地理位置及地理条件，相对海平面变化幅度将远远大于全球海平面变化平均水平，为此就海平面变化对上海市可持续发展的影响作初步探讨。     

东北落叶松属植物潜在分布对气候变化的响应

为探索气候变化对东北落叶松属植物的影响，采用logistic回归模型方法与地理信息系统，预测东北落叶松属植物目前以及未来潜在分布范围。结果表明：兴安落叶松在2050年将向北退200km，在2100年进一步向北退缩300km；长白落叶松在2050年向西北推进约200km，2100年继续推进约200km；华北落叶松在2050年向东北方向推进280km；2100年继续推进470km左右。气候变化极大地改变了三种落叶松的适宜分布区。在未来气候条件下，长白落叶松和华北落叶松将可能替代目前占主导地位的兴安落叶松。     

Estimated HCFC-142b emissions in China: 2000–2050

1-Chloro-1,1-difluoroethane(HCFC-142b)was both ozone depleting substance under restriction of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer(Montreal Protocol)and potent greenhouse gas with high GWP.Controlling its emissions in China will contribute to both mitigating climate change and protecting ozone.A national emission inventory of HCFC-142b for China during 2000–2012 was established and projected to2050 based on the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories and the Montreal Protocol,showing that(i)in contrast to the downward trend revealed by existing researches,HCFC-142b emissions kept increasing from 0.1 kt/y in 2000 to the peak of 14.4 kt/y in2012,making China a crucial contributor to global HCFC-142b emissions and(ii)for future emission projections,a continuous increase from 14.9 kt/y in 2013 to 97.2 kt/y in2050 was anticipated under the business-as-usual(BAU)scenarios,while a reduction of about 90%of the projected BAU emissions would be obtained by fulfilling the Montreal Protocol,namely an accumulative mitigation of 1578kt HCFC-142b from 2013 to 2050,equal to 103 kt ODP and 3504 Tg CO2emissions.Emissions from each province in 2012 were also estimated to identify key emission areas.Among the 31 mainland provinces in China(Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan were not included),Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Shandong,and Guangdong had the highest emission ratesin 2012(2.06,1.85,1.52,and 1.04 kt/y,respectively);Zhejiang,Jiangsu,and Shanghai exhibit the strongest emission strength(0.83,0.59,and 0.54 t/km2,respectively),much higher than the average national level of 0.33t/km2.     

The significant roles of anthropogenic aerosols on surface temperature under carbon neutrality

A target of limiting global warming below 1.5 or 2 ℃ by 2100 relative to the preindustrial level was established in the 2015 Paris Agreement to combat the clima...     

碳排放强度与工业化的关系研究——基于200O-2008年省级面板数据分析

借鉴环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC),文章采用2000-2008年中国30个省区市的面板数据,对碳排放强度与工业化的关系进行回归.结果显示,它们之间呈倒N型关系;目前中国整体上处于工业化水平中期,完成2020年减排目标的关键是跨越第二个拐点进人碳排放强度随工业化发展下降的阶段;各省区市的工业化程度不同导致其减排压力不一样.因...