甘肃碳减排影响因素分析及对策研究

碳减排是人类社会应对化石能源短缺和气候变化双重挑战的必然选择。2015年,《中国国家自主贡献》明确提出中国到2030年的自主行动目标为:二氧化碳排放2030年左右达到峰值并争取尽早达峰;单位GDP二氧化碳排放比2005年下降60%~65%。甘肃作为一个经济欠发达地区尚处于工业化和城镇化阶段,能源消费需求会不断扩张,碳减排压力将与日俱增。通过计算甘肃历史碳排放量和碳强度,并依据能源消费状况、产业发展等实际情况,对甘肃碳排放的影响因素进行分析。分析结果表明:能源消费结构、产业结构、技术发展水平和重大工程项目是影响甘肃碳排放的4个主要影响因素,提出了绿色低碳发展的若干建议。     

安徽居民生活能源消费碳排放测度及影响因素分析

随着我国社会经济发展、城市化进程加快和人口数量增长,居民直接能源消费人均二氧化碳排放量持续走高,雾霾影响人们生活.文章根据IPCC碳排放计算指南中的计算公式和二氧化碳排放系数缺省值,建立了居民直接能源消费二氧化碳排放计算模型,测算出2005-2013年安徽省居民直接能源消费二氧化碳排放量,接着对碳排放的影响因素进行了实证分析,最后提出了相应的二氧化碳减排对策措施.     

我国可再生能源中长期（2030、2050）发展战略目标与途径

基于我国调整能源结构的战略方针和以煤为主要一次能源的国情，根据可再生能源在技术、产业等方面的发展形势，从可持续发展的战略高度和大能源体系的视野，分析了2030年、2050年我国可再生能源发展的战略目标、技术路线、发展重点和保障政策，指出通过重点发展可再生能源发电、大力发展可再生能源热利用和燃气技术、积极努力发展生物质交通燃料技术，使可再生能源从目前的补充能源，逐步提升到2020年的替代能源、2030年的主流能源和2050年的主导能源的战略地位。     

西部可持续能源开发利用模型

为了研究中国西部可持续的能源开发利用战略,建立了西部可持续能源开发利用模型。该模型以能源系统优化模型——MARKAL模型为内核,耦合了能源服务需求预测模块、水资源需求模块、污染物排放模块、经济分析模块和内生技术学习模块。应用该模型研究了2000—2050年间西部地区终端能源需求、一次能源供应、电力消费及构成、水资源需求以及污染物排放等。并分析了“能源东送”方案对西部能源系统的影响。结果显示,2050年中国西部终端能源消费量将达到12.43亿t,一次能源消费量将达到14.67亿t。预计“能源东送”方案实施后,一次能源消费、电力需求、水资源需求和污染物排放均会有较大幅度增加。     

中国各地域能源消费及SO2、NOx、CO2排放量估计与预测

估算了巨大都市、大都市、中小城市及农村（其他地区）的能源消费情况，建立了各地区人及GDP预测模型，根据各地区人口和GDP增长率及由CGEn模型预测的2种计算方案下的各部门燃料类别的能源消费量，对4个地域2030年前的能源消费量进行了估计，同时，在考虑燃料性质及大气污染防治对策动向的条件下，估算了现况及到2030年的SO2、NOx和CO2的排放情况，结果表明，未来的30a中国将大大加快都市化特别是中小都市化的发展进程，从各地区能源消费量及SO2、NOx和CO2的排放量构成来看，都市主要集中于电力、钢铁、水泥等能源消费密集型企业，农作物秸秆及薪柴是中国农村的主要能源和废气排放源。     

煤炭利用洁净化度的构建与分析

通过对10种发电技术的单一指标和综合指标的洁净化度的研究,分析和预测了中国2030年和2050年煤炭利用过程中污染物排放对环境的影响程度,给出了评价煤炭高效洁净化利用程度的洁净化度的概念并作出了相应的定量判据。研究结果表明:不同发电技术采用二氧化碳捕获与埋存(CCS)技术后,洁净化度比不采用CCS的大,其中多联产、超超临界发电的综合洁净化度较大;随着煤炭高效洁净化技术路线的实施和大规模利用,总体洁净化度提高,特别是2050年,在能源消费总量增加、煤炭总量略有增加的情况下,如果全国50%的燃煤发电机组采用CCS技术,煤炭利用总洁净化度将从2030年的61%增加到71%。     

氢能源将在内蒙古自治区实现碳达峰和碳中和发挥重要作用

2020年9月22日,国家主席习近平在第七十五届联合国大会一般性辩论上发表重要讲话时提出二氧化碳排放力争于2030年前达到峰值,于2060年前实现碳中和的宏伟目标。因为实现碳达峰与碳中和意义深远,所以如何实现这两个宏伟目标,值得深入思考。为确保内蒙古自治区如期实现这两个宏伟目标,在如何有效替换化石能源为氢能源方面做出几点思考,并给出初步对策。     

基于中国TIMES模型的碳排放达峰路径

该文以中国能源系统优化模型(China TIMES)为基础,构建了碳排放达峰路径模型体系,分析了中国未来可能的碳排放峰值水平和达峰路径,综合评估了各部门及各项措施的碳减排贡献。结果表明:在参考情景下,中国的能源消费与碳排放在2010—2050年间将持续增长,对能源安全和应对气候变化带来严峻挑战;在达峰情景下,通过发展非化石能源和推广高耗能工业的节能减排技术,使得电力、工业和高耗能工业部门分阶段地实现碳排放达峰,进而实现2030年碳排放峰值达100亿~108亿t;电力和工业部门是碳减排的关键部门,二者在2030年的减排贡献分别达到75%和15%;发展非化石能源和提高高耗能工业的能效是碳减排的关键措施,二者在2030年的减排贡献分别达到65%和15%。     

基于生产函数理论的碳排放量模型及应用

为了准确预测经济社会发展及能源消费的二氧化碳排放量(简称碳排放量),提出了基于生产函数理论的碳排放量模型.首先,以生产函数为理论基础,结合碳排放量与经济社会发展及能源消费相关的事实,构建了碳排放通用模型;利用经典的碳排放模型,验证了通用模型模型的合理性.其次,根据我国可能出现的发展情况,以人口、GDP、城市化率、能源强度、能源结构和产业结构等作为驱动因素,推导出适合我国的碳排放系列模型.最后,将国家统计局历史数据和外推法驱动因素数据带入碳排放预测模型中,实现对我国碳排放量预测.结果表明:新碳排放量模型更加符合实际情况;人口、GDP和城市化率是碳排放的主导驱动因素;用新模型预测得出我国碳排放在2027年左右达到峰值,经济社会发展将在2030年前实现脱碳.     

我国经济增长、能源消费与二氧化碳排放实证分析

对我国的经济增长与能源消费、二氧化碳排放等的关系进行实证研究在当前具有十分重要的意义.采用SPSS软件建立的回归模型,对未来十年我国的二氧化碳排放量及排放强度进行了估计:我国未来的二氧化碳排放总量仍然会有很大增幅,并且二氧化碳排放效率在短期内不会有明显的改善.     

Characterization of Ordovician carbonate reservoirs, southeastern Saskatchewan, Canada

The discovery of the prolific Ordovician Red River reservoirs in 1995 in southeastern Saskatchewan was the catalyst for extensive exploration activity which resulted in the discovery of more than 15 new Red River pools. The best yields of Red River production to date have been from dolomite reservoirs. Understanding the processes of dolomitization is, therefore, crucial for the prediction of the connectivity, spatial distribution and heterogeneity of dolomite reservoirs.The Red River reservoirs in the Midale area consist of 3～4 thin dolomitized zones, with a total thickness of about 20 m, which occur at the top of the Yeoman Formation. Two types of replacement dolomite were recognized in the Red River reservoir: dolomitized burrow infills and dolomitized host matrix. The spatial distribution of dolomite suggests that burrowing organisms played an important role in facilitating the fluid flow in the backfilled sediments. This resulted in penecontemporaneous dolomitization of burrow infills by normal seawater. The dolomite in the host matrix is interpreted as having occurred at shallow burial by evaporitic seawater during precipitation of Lake Almar anhydrite that immediately overlies the Yeoman Formation. However, the low δ18O values of dolomited burrow infills (-5.9‰～ -7.8‰, PDB) and matrix dolomites (-6.6‰～ -8.1‰, avg. -7.4‰ PDB) compared to the estimated values for the late Ordovician marine dolomite could be attributed to modification and alteration of dolomite at higher temperatures during deeper burial, which could also be responsible for its 87Sr/86Sr ratios (0.7084～0.7088) that are higher than suggested for the late Ordovician seawaters (0.7078～0.7080). The trace amounts of saddle dolomite cement in the Red River carbonates are probably related to "cannibalization" of earlier replacement dolomite during the chemical compaction.     

An Index mechanism for multi-scale view in spatial databases

There are numerous geometric objects stored in the spatial databases. An importance function in a spatial database is that users can browse the geometric objects as a map efficiently. Thus the spatial database should display the geometric objects users concern about swiftly onto the display window. This process includes two operations:retrieve data from database and then draw them onto screen. Accordingly, to improve the efficiency, we should try to reduce time of both retrieving object and displaying them. The former can be achieved with the aid of spatial index such as R-tree, the latter require to simplify the objects. Simplification means that objects are shown with sufficient but not with unnecessary detail which depend on the scale of browse. So the major problem is how to retrieve data at different detail level efficiently. This paper introduces the implementation of a multi-scale index in the spatial database SISP (Spatial Information Shared Platform) which is generalized from R-tree. The difference between the generalization and the R-tree lies on two facets: One is that every node and geometric object in the generalization is assigned with a importance value which denote the importance of them, and every vertex in the objects are assigned with a importance value,too. The importance value can be use to decide which data should be retrieve from disk in a query. The other difference is that geometric objects in the generalization are divided into one or more sub-blocks, and vertexes are total ordered by their importance value. With the help of the generalized R-tree, one can easily retrieve data at different detail levels.Some experiments are performed on real-life data to evaluate the performance of solutions that separately use normal spatial index and multi-scale spatial index. The results show that the solution using multi-scale index in SISP is satisfying.     

A computer generator for randomly layered structures

AcomputergeneratorforrandomlylayeredstructuresYUJia shun1,2,HEZhen hua2(1.TheInstituteofGeologicalandNuclearSciences,NewZealand;2.StateKeyLaboratoryofOilandGasReservoirGeologyandExploitation,ChengduUniversityofTechnology,China)Abstract:Analgorithmisintrod…     

海南岛地体及其毗邻陆缘晚中生代—新生代古地磁研究和构造演化

本文叙述了对海南岛及其毗邻大陆边缘白垩纪到第四纪地层岩石进行古地磁研究的全部工作过程。通过分析岩石中剩余磁矢量的磁偏角及磁倾角的变化,提出海南岛白垩纪以来经历的构造演化模式如下:早期伴随顺时针旋转而向南迁移,后期伴随逆时针转动并向北运移。联系该地区及邻区的地质、地球物理资料,对海南岛上述的构造地体运动提出以下认识:北部湾内早期有一拉张作用,主要是该作用使湾内地壳显著伸长减薄,形成北部湾盆地。从而导致了海南岛的早期构造运动,而海南岛后期的构造运动则主要是受南海海底扩张的影响。海南地体运动规律的阐明对于了解北部湾油气盆地的形成演化有重要的理论和实际意义。     

Exciton Seebeck in Molecular Systems

Various applications relevant to the exciton dynamics,such as the organic solar cell,the large-area organic light-emitting diodes and the thermoelectricity,are operating under temperature gradient.The potential abnormal behavior of the exicton dynamics driven by the temperature difference may affect the efficiency and performance of the corresponding devices.In the above situations,the exciton dynamics under temperature difference is mixed with     

Achieving Unusual States of Matter Under High Pressure

The elongation method,originally proposed by Imamura was further developed for many years in our group.As a method towards O(N)with high efficiency and high accuracy for any dimensional systems.This treatment designed for one-dimensional(ID)polymers is now available for three-dimensional(3D)systems,but geometry optimization is now possible only for 1D-systems.As an approach toward post-Hartree-Fock,it was also extended to     

《Chinese Science Bulletin》SUBJECT INDEX TO VOLUME 59(2014)

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An on-line scaling method for improving scalability of a database cluster

The explosive growth of the Internet and database applications has driven database to be more scalable and available, and able to support on-line scaling without interrupting service. To support more client's queries without downtime and degrading the response time, more nodes have to be scaled up while the database is running. This paper presents the overview of scalable and available database that satisfies the above characteristics. And we propose a novel on-line scaling method. Our method improves the existing on-line scaling method for fast response time and higher throughputs. Our proposed method reduces unnecessary network use, i.e. , we decrease the number of data copy by reusing the backup data. Also, our on-line scaling operation can be processed parallel by selecting adequate nodes as new node. Our performance study shows that our method results in significant reduction in data copy time.     

An improved R-tree based on childnode''s probability

R-Tree is a good structure for spatial searching. But in this indexing structure,either the sequence of nodes in the same level or sequence of traveling these nodes when queries are made is random. Since the possibility that the object appears in different MBR which have the same parents node is different, if we make the subnode who has the most possibility be traveled first, the time cost will be decreased in most of the cases. In some case, the possibility of a point belong to a rectangle will shows direct proportion with the size of the rectangle. But this conclusion is based on an assumption that the objects are symmetrically distributing in the area and this assumption is not always coming into existence. Now we found a more direct parameter to scale the possibility and made a little change on the structure of R-tree, to increase the possibility of founding the satisfying answer in the front sub trees. We names this structure probability based arranged R-tree (PBAR-tree).     

Integrating GIS Web services based on mediating architecture

The geographic information service is enabled by the advancements in general Web service technology and the focused efforts of the OGC in defining XML-based Web GIS service. Based on these models, this paper addresses the issue of services chaining,the process of combining or pipelining results from several interoperable GIS Web Services to create a customized solution. This paper presents a mediated chaining architecture in which a specific service takes responsibility for performing the process that describes a service chain. We designed the Spatial Information Process Language (SIPL) for dynamic modeling and describing the service chain, also a prototype of the Spatial Information Process Execution Engine (SIPEE) is implemented for executing processes written in SIPL. Discussion of measures to improve the functionality and performance of such system will be included.