A possible important CO2 sink by the global water cycle

The locations, magnitudes, variations and mechanisms responsible for the global CO2 sink are uncertain and under debate. Here, we show, based on theoretical calculations and evidences from field monitoring results, that there is a possible important CO2 sink （as DIC-dissolved inorganic carbon） by the global water cycle. The sink constitutes up to 0.8013 Pg C/a （or 10.1% of the total anthropogenic CO2 emission, or 28.6% of the missing CO2 sink）, and is formed by the CO2 absorption of water and subsequent enhanced consumption by carbonate dissolution and aquatic plant photosynthesis. Of the sink, 0.5188 Pg C/a goes to sea via precipitation over sea （0.2748 Pg C/a） and continental rivers （0.244 Pg C/a）, 0.158 Pg C/a is released to the atmosphere again, and 0.1245 Pg C/a is stored in the continental aquatic ecosystem. Therefore, the net sink could be 0.6433 Pg C/a. This sink may increase with the global-warming-intensified global water cycle, the increase in CO2 and carbonate dust in atmosphere, and reforestation/afforestation, the latter increasing soil CO2, and thus the concentration of the DIC in water.     

净生态系统生产力研究进展与问题

针对净生态系统生产力(NEP)的研究正处于起步阶段,尤其在土壤呼吸及其对气候变化的响应方面尚有许多具体工作有待展开,土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)对净生态系统生产力的影响越来越受到科学界的重视等现实,较为系统地总结了当今关于净生态系统生产力的最新研究进展,并对现存的主要问题进行了一些必要的讨论.     

Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change

The mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae) is a native insect of the pine forests of western North America, and its populations periodically erupt into large-scale outbreaks. During outbreaks, the resulting widespread tree mortality reduces forest carbon uptake and increases future emissions from the decay of killed trees. The impacts of insects on forest carbon dynamics, however, are generally ignored in large-scale modelling analyses. The current outbreak in British Columbia, Canada, is an order of magnitude larger in area and severity than all previous recorded outbreaks. Here we estimate that the cumulative impact of the beetle outbreak in the affected region during 2000-2020 will be 270 megatonnes (Mt) carbon (or 36 g carbon m(-2) yr(-1) on average over 374,000 km2 of forest). This impact converted the forest from a small net carbon sink to a large net carbon source both during and immediately after the outbreak. In the worst year, the impacts resulting from the beetle outbreak in British Columbia were equivalent to approximately 75% of the average annual direct forest fire emissions from all of Canada during 1959-1999. The resulting reduction in net primary production was of similar magnitude to increases observed during the 1980s and 1990s as a result of global change. Climate change has contributed to the unprecedented extent and severity of this outbreak. Insect outbreaks such as this represent an important mechanism by which climate change may undermine the ability of northern forests to take up and store atmospheric carbon, and such impacts should be accounted for in large-scale modelling analyses.     

林分斑块尺度下的森林群落碳汇研究

针对森林碳循环过程模型空间模拟尺度多样化,但数据获取比较困难,森林碳变化响应与适应的研究不可 能实现在不同生境下均安置碳通量观测系统的问题,提出利用遥感过程耦合模型定量估算动态 GPP 值、NPP 值、 RH 值及 NEP 值等,反演森林植被群落不同优势树种碳汇/ 碳源情况,探寻造林、森林转化和森林人工经营管理等 植被恢复措施对森林碳增汇的生态价值,激活碳源效应的促进重建作用。 通过以空间代替时间的实地调查采样法 和遥感模型相结合,输入 GLOPEM-CEVSA 模型中温度影响系数、蒸散量、水气压影响系数、二氧化碳浓度胁迫、植 物呼吸及土壤呼吸等驱动因子,研究在林分斑块尺度下森林碳储量差异。 研究表明:(1)从整体情况来看,林地净 初级生产力>草地>农业用地>水域>建设用地,林地净生态系统生产力>农业用地>草地>建设用地>水域;(2)从年 际 NPP / NEP 值来看,森林生态系统大部分表现为大气 CO2 碳汇;(3)森林群落自然恢复演替中 NPP 值大小关系 是:乔幼落叶阔叶林群落(A4)>马尾松/ 杉木常绿针叶林群落(A5)>柏木常绿针叶林群落(A6) >常绿灌丛/ 灌草丛/ 人工灌木群落(A2) >草本群落(A1);NEP 值表现为乔幼落叶阔叶林群落>马尾松/ 杉木常绿针叶林群落>常绿灌 丛/ 灌草丛/ 人工灌木群落>柏木常绿针叶林群落>草本群落;人工辅助演替中 NPP 值大小关系是(慈竹)竹林群落 >马尾松/ 杉木常绿针叶林群落>柏木常绿针叶林群落>常绿灌丛/ 灌草丛/ 人工灌木群落;NEP 值表现为(慈竹)竹 林群落>马尾松/ 杉木常绿针叶林群落>常绿灌丛/ 灌草丛/ 人工灌木群落>柏木常绿针叶林群落,NPP 值和 NEP 值 随顺行演替均呈现出先上升后下降的单峰状发展趋势。     

Soil fertility limits carbon sequestration by forest ecosystems in a CO2-enriched atmosphere

Northern mid-latitude forests are a large terrestrial carbon sink. Ignoring nutrient limitations, large increases in carbon sequestration from carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization are expected in these forests. Yet, forests are usually relegated to sites of moderate to poor fertility, where tree growth is often limited by nutrient supply, in particular nitrogen. Here we present evidence that estimates of increases in carbon sequestration of forests, which is expected to partially compensate for increasing CO2 in the atmosphere, are unduly optimistic. In two forest experiments on maturing pines exposed to elevated atmospheric CO2, the CO2-induced biomass carbon increment without added nutrients was undetectable at a nutritionally poor site, and the stimulation at a nutritionally moderate site was transient, stabilizing at a marginal gain after three years. However, a large synergistic gain from higher CO2 and nutrients was detected with nutrients added. This gain was even larger at the poor site (threefold higher than the expected additive effect) than at the moderate site (twofold higher). Thus, fertility can restrain the response of wood carbon sequestration to increased atmospheric CO2. Assessment of future carbon sequestration should consider the limitations imposed by soil fertility, as well as interactions with nitrogen deposition.     

中国国际贸易隐含的CO2评估——基于非竞争型投入产出模型

通过构建非竞争型投入产出模型精确地评估了1995~2005年中国国际贸易隐含的CO2.研究发现：国内生产所排放的CO2近1/4～1/3是由出口产生的，国内消费所隐含的CO2近1/5～1/4是由进口来满足的，中国净出口隐含的CO2占国内生产排放的CO2的比例不断上升，为国外承担了大量的CO2排放.另外，中间投入的进口为中国节省了越来越多的CO2；中国对外贸易结构有助于CO2减排，污染贸易条件略有好转，但2000年后对外贸易对CO2减排的贡献度在减小.因此，中国应适度控制出口规模，有针对性地调整贸易结构，从而减少CO2排放压力.
     

The spatial distribution of forest carbon sinks and sources in China

Forest ecosystems play an important role in the global carbon cycle.The implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol has made the study of forest ecosystem carbon cycling a hot topic of scientific research globally.This paper utilized Chinese national forest inventory data sets(for the periods 1984-1988 and 1999-2003),the vegetation map of China(1:1000000),and the spatially explicit net primary productivity(NPP) data sets derived with the remote sensing-based light use efficiency model(CASA model).We quantitatively estimated the spatial distribution of carbon sinks and sources of forest vegetation(with a resolution of 1 km) using the spatial downscaling technique.During the period 1984 to 2003 the forest vegetation in China represented a carbon sink.The total storage of carbon increased by 0.77 PgC,with a mean of 51.0TgCa 1.The total carbon sink was 0.88PgC and carbon source was 0.11 PgC during the study period.The carbon sink and carbon source of forest vegetation in China showed a clear spatial distribution pattern.Carbon sinks were mainly located in subtropical and temperate regions,with the highest values in Hainan Province,Hengduan mountain ranges,Changbai mountain ranges in Jilin,and south and northwest of the Da Hinggan Mountains;carbon sources were mainly distributed from the northeast to southwestern areas in China,with the highest values mainly concentrated in southern Yunnan Province,central Sichuan Basin,and northern Da Hinggan Mountains.Increase in NPP was strongly correlated with carbon sink strength.The regression model showed that more than 80% of the variation in the modeled carbon sinks in Northeast,Northern,Northwest and Southern China were explained by the variation in NPP increase.There was a strong relationship between carbon sink strength and forest stand age.     

Preliminary regional estimation of carbon sink flux by carbonate rock corrosion: A case study of the Pearl River Basin

The formation of carbonate rocks has had a dramatic sink effect on atmospheric CO2 throughout geological time.The wide global distribution of carbonate rocks and their strong sensitivity to climate change mean that carbonate rock corrosion consuming air/soil CO2 can play an important role in the global carbon cycle.The carbon sink accounts for 12.00%-35.29% of the missing carbon in the global carbon cycle.Using the Pearl River Basin as a case study,we analyzed comprehensively the factors impacting karstific...     

硅酸盐岩风化碳汇与我国热带季风区花岗岩流域碳循环*

为探讨岩石风化碳汇在环境变化过程中的作用,阐明硅酸盐岩风化作为地质时间尺度净碳汇在全球碳循环过程中的重要意义。综述了岩石化学风化与环境变化之间的关系,总结了岩石风化领域的研究进展,重点论述了有关玄武岩和花岗岩地区碳汇速率的研究成果。结果表明,学者对玄武岩流域的研究开展较早,涉及玄武岩台地、火山岛屿及大陆边缘火山带等代表区域,但由于其在陆壳硅酸盐岩面积比例较低,当综合评价全球硅酸盐岩的碳汇能力时,花岗岩地区更具代表性。有关花岗岩地区的研究集中在北美洲和欧洲地区,学者对亚洲季风区,尤其是热带季风地区关注较少。事实上,热带地区花岗岩风化速率为10.05~44.3 t·km~(-2)·y~(-1),平均碳汇能力达5.25×10~5mol·km~(-2)·y~(-1),与国内外已有成果相比,中国热带季风区花岗岩正经历快速风化和较高的CO_2吸收通量,加上区域内特殊的河流碳输送规律,该区域在全球碳循环研究中意义重大。然而,目前中国花岗岩流域碳循环研究主要在温带及亚热带地区展开,无疑,对于中国热带季风区花岗岩流域碳循环的研究应是学者未来关注的重点。     

Increase in observed net carbon dioxide uptake by land and oceans during the past 50 years

One of the greatest sources of uncertainty for future climate predictions is the response of the global carbon cycle to climate change. Although approximately one-half of total CO(2) emissions is at present taken up by combined land and ocean carbon reservoirs, models predict a decline in future carbon uptake by these reservoirs, resulting in a positive carbon-climate feedback. Several recent studies suggest that rates of carbon uptake by the land and ocean have remained constant or declined in recent decades. Other work, however, has called into question the reported decline. Here we use global-scale atmospheric CO(2) measurements, CO(2) emission inventories and their full range of uncertainties to calculate changes in global CO(2) sources and sinks during the past 50 years. Our mass balance analysis shows that net global carbon uptake has increased significantly by about 0.05 billion tonnes of carbon per year and that global carbon uptake doubled, from 2.4?±?0.8 to 5.0?±?0.9 billion tonnes per year, between 1960 and 2010. Therefore, it is very unlikely that both land and ocean carbon sinks have decreased on a global scale. Since 1959, approximately 350 billion tonnes of carbon have been emitted by humans to the atmosphere, of which about 55 per cent has moved into the land and oceans. Thus, identifying the mechanisms and locations responsible for increasing global carbon uptake remains a critical challenge in constraining the modern global carbon budget and predicting future carbon-climate interactions.     

Acclimation of ecosystem CO2 exchange in the Alaskan Arctic in response to decadal climate warming

Long-term sequestration of carbon in Alaskan Arctic tundra ecosystems was reversed by warming and drying of the climate in the early 1980s, resulting in substantial losses of terrestrial carbon. But recent measurements suggest that continued warming and drying has resulted in diminished CO2 efflux, and in some cases, summer CO2 sink activity. Here we compile summer CO2 flux data for two Arctic ecosystems from 1960 to the end of 1998. The results show that a return to summer sink activity has come during the warmest and driest period observed over the past four decades, and indicates a previously undemonstrated capacity for ecosystems to metabolically adjust to long-term (decadal or longer) changes in climate. The mechanisms involved are likely to include changes in nutrient cycling, physiological acclimation, and population and community reorganization. Nevertheless, despite the observed acclimation, the Arctic ecosystems studied are still annual net sources of CO2 to the atmosphere of at least 40 g C m(-2) yr(-1), due to winter release of CO2, implying that further climate change may still exacerbate CO2 emissions from Arctic ecosystems.     

Respiration in the open ocean

A key question when trying to understand the global carbon cycle is whether the oceans are net sources or sinks of carbon. This will depend on the production of organic matter relative to the decomposition due to biological respiration. Estimates of respiration are available for the top layers, the mesopelagic layer, and the abyssal waters and sediments of various ocean regions. Although the total open ocean respiration is uncertain, it is probably substantially greater than most current estimates of particulate organic matter production. Nevertheless, whether the biota act as a net source or sink of carbon remains an open question.     

Net production of oxygen in the subtropical ocean

The question of whether the plankton communities in low-nutrient regions of the ocean, comprising 80% of the global ocean surface area, are net producers or consumers of oxygen and fixed carbon is a key uncertainty in the global carbon cycle. Direct measurements in bottle experiments indicate net oxygen consumption in the sunlit zone, whereas geochemical evidence suggests that the upper ocean is a net source of oxygen. One possible resolution to this conflict is that primary production in the gyres is episodic and thus difficult to observe: in this model, oligotrophic regions would be net consumers of oxygen during most of the year, but strong, brief events with high primary production rates might produce enough fixed carbon and dissolved oxygen to yield net production as an average over the annual cycle. Here we examine the balance of oxygen production over three years at sites in the North and South Pacific subtropical gyres using the new technique of oxygen sensors deployed on profiling floats. We find that mixing events during early winter homogenize the upper water column and cause low oxygen concentrations. Oxygen then increases below the mixed layer at a nearly constant rate that is similar to independent measures of net community production. This continuous oxygen increase is consistent with an ecosystem that is a net producer of fixed carbon (net autotrophic) throughout the year, with episodic events not required to sustain positive oxygen production.     

Nitrogen saturation and net ecosystem production

Magnani et al. found that net carbon (C) sequestration of temperate and boreal forests is clearly driven by nitrogen (N) deposition. From the positive relationship between average net ecosystem production (NEP) and wet N deposition, the authors further conclude that "no signs of N saturation were apparent" in the studied forests and that this is "casting doubts on the risk of widespread ecosystem nitrogen saturation". Nitrogen additions can clearly alter net ecosystem production, but net ecosystem production cannot be used as an indicator of N saturation.     

重点生态功能区净碳汇时空格局研究

重点生态功能区是我国生态固碳的主要区域，在“双碳”目标下研究区域净碳汇时空格局具有重要意义。本研究基于县域空间单元，利用土地利用数据和中国碳核算数据库，对重点生态功能区选取的751个区县的碳汇、碳排放以及净碳汇的时空格局进行了分析，主要得出以下结论：（1）重点生态功能区碳汇量占比超过全国一半以上，在我国生态固碳中的地位显著而突出，且区域碳汇量表现出明显的集聚特征，东北森林带、藏西北、藏东南等地年固碳水平较高，而东南部沿海、黄土高原、华北平原等地固碳水平较低。（2）2000年以来重点生态功能区碳排放量在内蒙古、黄土高原、新疆部分地区以及中东部沿海城市群集聚，排放量也呈现增加的趋势。（3）重点生态功能区碳收支平衡压力相对最小，大兴安岭地区和青藏高原为明显的连片净碳汇区，然而大部分三北地带净碳汇为负值。在双碳目标下，一方面需要强化排放侧管理，另一方面需要加强生态固碳能力建设。     

Recent patterns and mechanisms of carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems.

Knowledge of carbon exchange between the atmosphere, land and the oceans is important, given that the terrestrial and marine environments are currently absorbing about half of the carbon dioxide that is emitted by fossil-fuel combustion. This carbon uptake is therefore limiting the extent of atmospheric and climatic change, but its long-term nature remains uncertain. Here we provide an overview of the current state of knowledge of global and regional patterns of carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems. Atmospheric carbon dioxide and oxygen data confirm that the terrestrial biosphere was largely neutral with respect to net carbon exchange during the 1980s, but became a net carbon sink in the 1990s. This recent sink can be largely attributed to northern extratropical areas, and is roughly split between North America and Eurasia. Tropical land areas, however, were approximately in balance with respect to carbon exchange, implying a carbon sink that offset emissions due to tropical deforestation. The evolution of the terrestrial carbon sink is largely the result of changes in land use over time, such as regrowth on abandoned agricultural land and fire prevention, in addition to responses to environmental changes, such as longer growing seasons, and fertilization by carbon dioxide and nitrogen. Nevertheless, there remain considerable uncertainties as to the magnitude of the sink in different regions and the contribution of different processes.     

Fire as the dominant driver of central Canadian boreal forest carbon balance

Changes in climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and fire regimes have been occurring for decades in the global boreal forest, with future climate change likely to increase fire frequency--the primary disturbance agent in most boreal forests. Previous attempts to assess quantitatively the effect of changing environmental conditions on the net boreal forest carbon balance have not taken into account the competition between different vegetation types on a large scale. Here we use a process model with three competing vascular and non-vascular vegetation types to examine the effects of climate, carbon dioxide concentrations and fire disturbance on net biome production, net primary production and vegetation dominance in 100 Mha of Canadian boreal forest. We find that the carbon balance of this region was driven by changes in fire disturbance from 1948 to 2005. Climate changes affected the variability, but not the mean, of the landscape carbon balance, with precipitation exerting a more significant effect than temperature. We show that more frequent and larger fires in the late twentieth century resulted in deciduous trees and mosses increasing production at the expense of coniferous trees. Our model did not however exhibit the increases in total forest net primary production that have been inferred from satellite data. We find that poor soil drainage decreased the variability of the landscape carbon balance, which suggests that increased climate and hydrological changes have the potential to affect disproportionately the carbon dynamics of these areas. Overall, we conclude that direct ecophysiological changes resulting from global climate change have not yet been felt in this large boreal region. Variations in the landscape carbon balance and vegetation dominance have so far been driven largely by increases in fire frequency.     

Bacterial growth and primary production along a north-south transect of the Atlantic Ocean

The oceanic carbon cycle is mainly determined by the combined activities of bacteria and phytoplankton, but the interdependence of climate, the carbon cycle and the microbes is not well understood. To elucidate this interdependence, we performed high-frequency sampling of sea water along a north-south transect of the Atlantic Ocean. Here we report that the interaction of bacteria and phytoplankton is closely related to the meridional profile of water temperature, a variable directly dependent on climate. Water temperature was positively correlated with the ratio of bacterial production to primary production, and, more strongly, with the ratio of bacterial carbon demand to primary production. In warm latitudes (25 degrees N to 30 degrees S), we observed alternating patches of predominantly heterotrophic and autotrophic community metabolism. The calculated regression lines (for data north and south of the Equator) between temperature and the ratio of bacterial production to primary production give a maximum value for this ratio of 40% in the oligotrophic equatorial regions. Taking into account a bacterial growth efficiency of 30%, the resulting area of net heterotrophy (where the bacterial carbon demand for growth plus respiration exceeds phytoplankton carbon fixation) expands from 8 degrees N (27 degrees C) to 20 degrees S (23 degrees C). This suggests an output of CO2 from parts of the ocean to the atmosphere.     

Interannual variability in the oxygen isotopes of atmospheric CO2 driven by El Niño

The stable isotope ratios of atmospheric CO(2) ((18)O/(16)O and (13)C/(12)C) have been monitored since 1977 to improve our understanding of the global carbon cycle, because biosphere-atmosphere exchange fluxes affect the different atomic masses in a measurable way. Interpreting the (18)O/(16)O variability has proved difficult, however, because oxygen isotopes in CO(2) are influenced by both the carbon cycle and the water cycle. Previous attention focused on the decreasing (18)O/(16)O ratio in the 1990s, observed by the global Cooperative Air Sampling Network of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory. This decrease was attributed variously to a number of processes including an increase in Northern Hemisphere soil respiration; a global increase in C(4) crops at the expense of C(3) forests; and environmental conditions, such as atmospheric turbulence and solar radiation, that affect CO(2) exchange between leaves and the atmosphere. Here we present 30 years' worth of data on (18)O/(16)O in CO(2) from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography global flask network and show that the interannual variability is strongly related to the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation. We suggest that the redistribution of moisture and rainfall in the tropics during an El Ni?o increases the (18)O/(16)O ratio of precipitation and plant water, and that this signal is then passed on to atmospheric CO(2) by biosphere-atmosphere gas exchange. We show how the decay time of the El Ni?o anomaly in this data set can be useful in constraining global gross primary production. Our analysis shows a rapid recovery from El Ni?o events, implying a shorter cycling time of CO(2) with respect to the terrestrial biosphere and oceans than previously estimated. Our analysis suggests that current estimates of global gross primary production, of 120 petagrams of carbon per year, may be too low, and that a best guess of 150-175 petagrams of carbon per year better reflects the observed rapid cycling of CO(2). Although still tentative, such a revision would present a new benchmark by which to evaluate global biospheric carbon cycling models.     

Ecologically implausible carbon response?

Magnani et al. present a very strong correlation between mean lifetime net ecosystem production (NEP, defined as the net rate of carbon (C) accumulation in ecosystems) and wet nitrogen (N) deposition. For their data in the range 4.9-9.8 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1), on which the correlation largely depends, the response is approximately 725 kg C per kg N in wet deposition. According to the authors, the maximum N wet deposition level of 9.8 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) is equivalent to a total deposition of 15 kg N ha(-1 )yr(-1), implying a net sequestration near 470 kg C per kg N of total deposition. We question the ecological plausibility of the relationship and show, from a multi-factor analysis of European forest measurements, how interactions with site productivity and environment imply a much smaller NEP response to N deposition.