Risk Analysis on Groundwater Resources Carrying Capacity Based on Blind Number Theory

Blind numbers of evaluation indices about groundwater resources carrying capacity are defined from the concomitancy of randomness, fuzziness, grey property and unascertainment of groundwater system. Based on fuzzy theory, a comprehensive evaluation model on groundwater resources carrying capacity is constructed with blind information. Then a risk assessment model of surcharge about groundwater resources carrying capacity is established on blind reliability theory. The probable value ＂＊＂ matrix of fuzzy membership degree about carrying capacity corresponding to each judgment level can be obtained with the aid of blind algorithm as well as the subjective reliability ＂×＂ matrix. And then a graph of ＂groundwater carrying capacity v.s. accumulative reliability＂ can be gained Based on the graph, fuzzy membership degree of groundwater resources carrying capacity to each judgment level under different risk probability can be got. Thus, a comparatively reasonable judgment to groundwater resources carrying capacity might be obtained, with comprehensive analysis to the state of society, economy technology and ecology.     

Jiuzhaigou Ecotourism Areal System： Temporal Evolution of Entropic Change

The temporal evolution of entropy of Jiuzhaigou ecotourism areal system has been quantitatively analyzed by using equation of system entropy V = k In M - k In C. The computed entropy for Jiuzhaigou ecotourism areal system for 20 years indicates a negative value during 1986-1996, which implies that the system had remained a healthy state during this period. The system entropy value, however, showed a constant increase since 1996 until it turned to be positive in 2000 when the system became chaotic. After 2000 the entropy value declined until 2003 when it escalated once again. By analyzing the causes and process of entropy change of the system, it is argued that fluctuation of entropy value is due to the overloading of tourist service capacity by tourism activities. It is desired to curb the flow of tourist volume and reinforce conservation efforts as well as, so that an ideal balance between conservation and development could be maintained.     

Food-Chain Model of Grassland Degradation and Its Restoration Process in Northern Tibet Plateau：A Case Study in Nierong County

Based on the model of grassland climate ecological productivity, the process of grassland degradation and its restoration mechanism in northern Tibetan Plateau were discussed by the model of food-chain in which the environmental and human factors were corrected. The results of case study in Nierong County showed that： ① the climate trend of becoming warmer, more droughts and gales were conflicted with the restoration of grassland degradation, even under level of perfect management the climate ecological productivity was declined from 89. 3 kg/m^2 of 1983 to 71.8 kg/m^2 of 2003; ② from 1983 to 2003, the population increased fast, while the variation of livestock on hand was little, and the cost of its maintaining is rapid grassland degradation; ③ on the present condition of overgrazing, the livestock on hand can be maintained on the level of theoretical carrying capacity in 2033 by applying the mechanism of food-chain in grassland ecological system controlled with expected coefficients, so that to realize the policy of determining the quantity of livestock according to grass growth.     

Perspective on Materials Genome~

The author’s perspective on Materials Genome is presented in this paper through several related projects.Current thermodynamic and kinetic databases of multicomponent materials consist of Gibbs energy functions and atomic mobility of individual phases as functions of temperature,composition,and sometimes pressure,i.e.,with the individual phases based on crystal structures as the genome(building blocks)of materials.It is articulated that if an individual phase has its internal configurations,such as magnetic spin configurations and ferroelectric polarization,change significantly with respect to temperature,stress,and magnetic and electric fields,then those individual configurations instead should be considered as the genome of the individual phase.The‘‘mutation’’of an individual phase is governed by the entropy of mixing among the individual stable and metastable configurations,named as microstate configurational entropy,and responsible to anomalies in individual phases.Our ability to tailor the properties of those individual configurations as a function of compositions is the key for the design of materials.     

Calculation methodology of marine environmental capacity for heavy metal: A case study in Jiaozhou Bay, China

Results from past pollution control practices show that environmental quality can be ensured by controlling the actual amount of pollutants formed in the environment.Therefore,the marine environmental capacity for heavy metals was introduced.Marine environmental capacity for heavy metals is defined as the maximum amount of heavy metals permitted in the marine environment system to preserve the benign cycle of materials in the oceansphere,and to limit the adverse effects of heavy metals on the biosphere,hydrosphere,atmosphere,and lithosphere.Based on the box or three-dimensional model in the target coastal region,including the self-purification and output of heavy metals,the marine environmental capacity for heavy metals can be calculated within a given criterion and time.In this study,a method was proposed to calculate the marine environmental capacity for heavy metals which includes four steps:(1) gathering the basis information of target coastal ecosystem,(2) selection of water control points and water quality criteria for these points,(3) development of numerical models for the biogeochemical cycling of heavy metals in target coastal region,and(4) calculation of environmental capacity using the developed model.According to the proposed method,the marine environmental capacity for lead is approximately 60 tons per year if Grade I seawater quality is set as the control criterion in Jiaozhou Bay.An effective seawater quality management plan can also be framed based on the environmental capacity for metals.     

Assessment of the Impact of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway on the Tourist Scenery in Tibet

This article briefly makes account of the characters of the tourist resources along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway. According to the diversity and distinctiveness of the natural landscape along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, its scientific studying values, aesthetic values and cultural values are summaized in this text. The article analysed the main types of construction of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway which would cause impacts to the landscapes along the line： roadbed construction, grounds of fetching and abandoning soil, sand and gravel material field, pavement for constructon, construction camp, etc. The impacts caused by construction of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway to the tourist scenery in Tibet are raised and the preventive and restorative measures needed to be taken to reduce and ease up the impacts of the railway project to the landscapes long the line are offered. The various measures raised above are in line with the characters of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway and are operational.     

Influence of Spatial Features on Land and Housing Prices

The analysis of hidden spatial features is crucial for the improvement of hedonic regression models for analyzing the structure of land and housing prices. If critical variables representing the influence of spatial features are omitted in the models, the residuals and the coefficients estimated usually exhibit some kind of spatial pattern. Hence, exploration of the relationship between the spatial patterns and the spatial features essentially leads to the discovery of omitted variables. The analyses in this paper were based on two exploratory approaches: one on the residual of a global regression model and the other on the geographically weighted regression (GWR) technique. In the GWR model, the regression coefficients are allowed to differ by location so more spatial patterns can be revealed. Comparison of the two approaches shows that they play supplementary roles for the detection of lot-associated variables and area-associated variables.     

Estimation of Single-fibre Tensile Properties from the Bundle Tensile Curve of Polyester Fibres

Fibre bundle tensile curves can be used to characterise fibre processing properties and end-use performance directly and to predict single-fibre properties in theory. In this paper, the tensile behaviour of polyester fibre-bundles has been analysed in characteristic values and diagramming. The characteristic distributions which include the symmetry distribution on right part, SRBS‘(e), on left part, SLBS‘(e) and the curve on base-line modification, MBS‘(e),based on the modulus distribution, BS‘(e), as well as thefrequency density function of broken fibres, B‘(e), havebeen derived from the tail of bundle tensile curves. Thetheoretical and measured results show that the mostimportant curves are MRS‘(e) and B‘(e) and can be usedto estimate the breaking-extension distribution of singlefibres. Especially for MRS‘(e), the modulus distributioncan accurately characterize single-fibre tensile propertiesand is no limitation as the calculation of B‘(e) because thebundle specific stress Y(e) of no fibre breaking at extensione should be found at first.     

Are topological relations dependent on the shape of spatial objects?

Topology is normally considered as independent of shape of spatial objects. This may not necessarily be true in describing relations between spatial objects in GIS. In this paper, we present proof that the topological relations between spatial objects are dependent on the shape of spatial objects. That is, that the topological relations of non-convex sets cannot be deformed to the topological relations of convex sets. The significant theoretical value of this paper is on its findings that topology of spatial objects is shape dependent. This indicates that when we want to describe topological relations between spatial objects in GIS, both topology and the shape of objects need to be considered. As a result, spatial data modeling, query and analysis based on the existing understanding of topology of spatial objects may need re-assessed.     

Study on RS-and GIS-based ecological capital assessment in arid areas

Ecological capital assessment is currently one of the important research contents in the interdisciplinary field of ecology, resources economics, environmental economics and ecological economics. To scientifically assess ecological capital redounds to decision-makers to consider the ecological cost in economic development, and is also necessary for sustainable economic development in arid areas. Based on the theory of landscape ecology, in this paper the per unit area ecological capital values in arid areas are researched by using the Land-sat TM data, CBERS satellite data, meteorological data, MODIS satellite data and other ecological data, and the RS- and GIS-based models of assessing ecological capital values in arid areas are developed. Moreover, based on the field-measured data, a case study on ecological capital assessment in the Manas River basin, Xinjiang in 2003 is carried out. The basin is divided into 4 ecological capital areas so as to quantitatively calculate the ecological capital values of the ecosystems, analyze the spatial distribution of ecological capital, and chart the maps of spatial distribution of ecological capital. The results show that the total ecological capital value of the ecosystems in the Manas River basin in 2003 was 1.494 54×1011 yuan RMB. In spatial distribution, the ecological capital decreases from the alpine zones to the plains and from the oases to the deserts, which accords with the distribution of vegetation zonality in this arid area. The assessed results can objectively reflect the ecological capital and its spatial distribution in the arid basin, and can also provide reference for roundly carrying out the assessment of ecological capital in arid areas.     

基于GIS与Multi-Agent System的景区游客空间行为模拟系统

基于GIS与Multi—Agent system技术的景区游客空间行为模拟系统（Tourists’Spatial Behavior Simulator，TSBS），可以对游客在景区的空间移动行为进行微观仿真，实现对景区每个游客的空间位置、行为状态变化的跟踪分析．TSBS构造众多具有与游客同样环境感知能力、目标选择模式、行为决策模式的Agent，模拟游客空间行为，用“路段”、“道”、“节点”、“片区”对景区环境进行表达．TSBS由虚拟时钟控制，时钟每增加一个步长，系统计算所有Agent下一时刻的状态，计算结果存入Agent状态数据库．TSBS同时提供了指标分析、可视化分析等工具实现对模拟结果的分析．TSBS采用server／client的计算模式，可以将局域网甚至Internet作为其计算平台．研究表明，TSBS可以作为景区规划与管理的有效工具．     

广东省温泉旅游地空间结构及演化发展

采用GIS空间分析和数理统计方法,研究了广东省温泉旅游地的空间结构及演化发展. 结果显示,广东省温泉旅游地空间分布呈集群分布态势,集中程度较高,空间分布极不均衡,珠三角和粤北山区分布密度高. 其演化发展经历了室内温泉、露天温泉、主题温泉和度假温泉等4个发展阶段,主要受资源禀赋条件、客源市场条件、交通条件变革以及旅游市场消费变化等因素的驱动影响.     

基于地理探测器的重庆市旅游发展水平空间分异影响因子研究

采用地理探测器模型,结合GIS空间分析技术,对重庆市38个区县的旅游发展水平空间分异及影响因子进行了分析.结果表明:重庆市整体旅游发展水平偏低且发展不均衡,具有明显的空间分异现象;旅游核心企业数量、城乡居民人均可支配收入、 GDP、 A级旅游景区数量和城镇化率是影响重庆市县域旅游发展水平差异的主要因素;影响因子间存在"1+12"和"弱+弱强"的现象;都市旅游区、渝东北旅游区、渝东南旅游区和环城旅游区内部的旅游发展水平主要影响因子呈现出部分服从整体且个体差异性并存的特点.     

河南省旅游度假区建设因子重要度辨识

随着度假旅游的不断升温,河南省的旅游度假区建设已经进入了一个快速发展的阶段,依托不同资源建设的各种类型的度假区灿若繁星.在度假区建设中也出现了游客需求不明、建设内容不清、建设重点不突出等多种问题.因此,对旅游度假区建设中的主要因子进行科学辨识已经成为一项重要研究课题.以旅游资源学、旅游经济学和游客心理学作为理论基础,选取河南宝天曼生态旅游区为研究标本,对度假客源进行调查取样,同时,结合《旅游度假区等级划分》(GB/T 26358—2010),对旅游度假区建设因子重要度进行分析,以期尝试对河南省旅游度假区开发建设因子重要度进行科学辨识,从而达到促进旅游度假区科学健康发展.     

A Study of the Driving Force Model Revealing Changes in Land Utilization Level Based on 3S Technologies——The Example of Yuanmou, Yunnan, China

This paper introduced the theory and approaches of building driving force models revealing the changes in land utilization level by integrating RS, GPS, and GIS technologies based on the example of Yuanmou County of Yunnan Province. We first created the land utilization type database, natural driving forces for land utilization database, and human driving forces for land utilization database. Then we obtained the dependent and the independent variables of changes in land utilization level by exploring various data. Lastly we screened major factors affecting changes in land utilization level by using the powerful spatial correlation analysis and main component analysis module of GIS and obtained a multivariable linear regression model of the changes in land utilization level by using GIS spatial regression analysis module.     

基于景观生态学的长春ReBAM游憩景观研究

ReBAM逐渐成为重要的旅游地域,但是长春ReBAM内各游览区处于散兵游勇式的状态,因此着眼于游憩景观空间结构对郊区进行研究具有积极意义。本文基于景观生态学理论,梳理了长春ReBAM的基质特色、游憩斑块类型和等级以及廊道体系,设计了社区型旅游地,最后从游憩时空体系和旅游线路两方面整合了郊区景观,可以指导游憩项目的设置和旅游产品的营销。     

基于GIS与Multi-Agent的行走模拟系统

采用计算机技术对人的行走行为进行模拟,对城市规划、房地产开发、旅游规划、交通规划等具有重要意义。对如何利用GIS平台构建行走Agent进行了论述,详细分析了行走模拟系统的结构、实现方法、应用领域与发展方向。     

涠洲岛湿地对鸻鹬类水鸟的承载力评估

【目的】评估候鸟迁徙季节涠洲岛湿地对鸻鹬类水鸟的承载力。【方法】调查监测候鸟迁徙季节涠洲岛湿地生物量和鸻鹬类水鸟群落,由水生生物热量和鸻鹬类群落的综合代谢率估算涠洲岛湿地食物量对鸻鹬类水鸟的承载力。【结果】鸻鹬类水鸟在涠洲岛的觅食地面积为158.54hm~2,包括库塘面积40.58hm~2,沼泽面积69.56hm~2以及涠洲岛东岸潮间带面积48.40hm~2。鸻鹬类群落由35种鸟类组成,涠洲岛湿地对鸻鹬鸟类春秋季承载力分别为874~1 236只和1 001~1 302只。觅食地承载力密度(只/hm~2)春季库塘10.7沼泽5.6潮间带4.8,秋季沼泽6.8库塘4.3潮间带3.6。淡水湿地密度高于潮间带密度。1990年以来潮间带觅食地面积损失了86%,单位面积平均生物量下降了55%。【结论】湿地面积、水生生物丰度影响涠洲岛湿地对鸻鹬类的承载力,修复湿地可提高承载力。     

北京颐和园旅游环境容量分析

从颐和园旅游者的旅游行为及颐和园本身的承受能力出发,以实地调查资料为依据,运用多种统计方法.测定了颐和园的空间环境容量和心理容量,并结合实际情况对计算结果进行误差修正,最终得出了颐和园的合理空间容量及入园速度.根据颐和园实际容纳游客人数与其合理空间容量的对比分析,发现颐和园全年空间容量虽然处于未饱和状态,但在局部时间和地点上,超载现象严重.最后,从游客旅游行为及颐和园本身管理等方面分析了造成局部超载的原因,并针对性地提出了相应的改进设想.