System portfolio selection based on GRA method under hesitant fuzzy environment

The hesitant fuzzy set(HFS) is an important tool to deal with uncertain and vague information.In equipment system portfolio selection, the index attribute of the equipment system may not be expressed by precise data;it is usually described by qualitative information and expressed as multiple possible values.We propose a method of equipment system portfolio selection under hesitant fuzzy environment.The hesitant fuzzy element(HFE) is used to describe the index and attribute values of the equipment system.The hesitation degree of HFEs measures the uncertainty of the criterion data of the equipment system.The hesitant fuzzy grey relational analysis(GRA) method is used to evaluate the score of the equipment system, and the improved HFE distance measure is used to fully consider the influence of hesitation degree on the grey correlation degree.Based on the score and hesitation degree of the equipment system,two portfolio selection models of the equipment system and an equipment system portfolio selection case is given to illustrate the application process and effectiveness of the method.     

Appraisal on the Regional Technological Innovation Ability Based on Unascertained Measure Method

In market economics, the regional technological innovation ability has become an important factor in the sustainable development of this region and important position in the region＇s competition. In this paper, the application of unascertained measure method in the ability of the regional technological innovation is studied. The appraisal index system is setup and the unascertained measure model is given . At last, an example is given to verify the theory model.     

Reference tracking control for flexible air-breathing hypersonic vehicle with actuator delay and uncertainty

This paper considers the problem of reference tracking control for the flexible air-breathing hypersonic flight vehicle with actuator delay and uncertainty.By constructing the Lyapunov functional including the lower and upper bounds of the time-varying delay,the non-fragile controller is designed such that the resulting closed-loop system is asymptotically stable and satisfies a prescribed performance cost index.The simulation results are given to show the effectiveness of the proposed control method,which is validated by excellent output reference altitude and velocity tracking performance.     

Stochastic framework for reliability enhancement using optimal feeder reconfiguration

Optimal distribution feeder reconfiguration （DFR） is a valuable and costless approach to increase the load balance, reduce the amount of power losses, and improve the voltage of the buses. In this way, this paper aims to investigate the optimal DFR strategy as a proper tool to improve the reliability of the radial distribution networks. The idea of failure rate reduction is employed to see the effect of feeder current reduction on the reliability of the system more accurately. The objects to be investigated are system average interruption frequency index （SAIFI）, system average interruption duration index （SAIDI）, average energy not supplied （AENS） and total active power losses. The problem is then formulated in a stochastic framework based on the point estimate method （PEM） to handle the uncertainty effects. The feasibility and satisfying performance of the proposed method is examined on a standard IEEE test system.     

Assessment on System Reliability of Cable-stayed Bridges Based on Unascertained Measures

To overcome the shortcomings that there are few feasible methods and models in the comprehensive assessment on the system reliability of cable-stayed bridges, a mathematical tool-the unascertalned measure was introduced. First, the basic knowledge of the Unascertained Sets was introduced briefly. Second, the unascertained measure was defined and the comprehensive assessment model was set up. Then the method was introduced to the assessment of the system reliability of a cable-stayed bridge located in Tianjin City. Engineering practices shows that the method can complete the assessment systematically and scientifically without any assumption. The work has significance in theory and practice for the comprehensive assessment of bridge engineering.     

Performance evaluation from stochastic statecharts repre-sentation of flexible reactive systems：a simulation approach

This paper focuses on the performance analysis of flexible reactive systems. The performance analysis consists of two phases： first system modeling, second performance evalua-tion. The paper models the flexible reactive system by the stochas-tic statecharts method, and uses the simulation method to evalu-ate the performance. To make use of the feature of event-triggered state transitions in the statecharts, a new method of simulation is proposed based on the techniques of the discrete-event system simulation. The new method solves the problem of computer imple-mentation of stochastic events, probabilistic transition, concurrent states, paral el actions, and broadcast communication mechanism in the stochastic statecharts. An example of a flexible manufactur-ing system is presented. The simulation result of the example is consistent with the analytical result, which shows the feasibility of the proposed new simulation method.     

Stability analysis and design of time-delay uncertain systems using robust reliability method

A robust reliability method for stability analysis and reliability-based stabilization of time-delay dynamic systems with uncertain but bounded parameters is presented by treating the uncertain parameters as interval variables.The performance function used for robust reliability analysis is defined by a delayindependent stability criterion.The design of robust controllers is carried out by solving a reliability-based optimization problem in which the control cost satisfying design requirements is minimized.This kind of treatment makes it possible to achieve a balance between the reliability and control cost in the design of controller when uncertainties must be taken into account.By the method,a robust reliability measure of the degree of stability of a time-delay uncertain system can be provided,and the maximum robustness bounds of uncertain parameters such that the time-delay system to be stable can be obtained.All the procedures are based on the linear matrix inequality approach and therefore can be carried out conveniently.The effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method are demonstrated with two practical examples.It is shown by numerical simulations and comparison that it is meaningful to take the robust reliability into account in the control design of uncertain systems.     

Global stabilizing controller design for linear time-varying systems and its application on BTT missiles

A parametric method for the gain-scheduled controller design of a linear time-varying system is given. According to the proposed scheduling method, the performance between adjacent characteristic points is preserved by the invariant eigenvalues and the gradually varying eigenvectors. A sufficient stability criterion is given by constructing a series of Lyapunov functions based on the selected discrete characteristic points. An important contribution is that it provides a simple and feasible approach for the design of gain-scheduled controllers for linear time-varying systems, which can guarantee both the global stability and the desired closed-loop performance of the resulted system. The method is applied to the design of a BTT missile autopilot and the simulation results show that the method is superior to the traditional one in sense of either global stability or system performance.     

战斗机编队协同作战效能评估研究

在分析了编队协同作战特点的基础上,利用层次分析方法建立了编队协同作战效能评估指标体系。重点研究了信息优势、决策能力、协同能力和攻击能力对编队协同作战效能影响,并建立了这四个指标的评估模型。接下来,利用成对比较矩阵计算出了准则层中各因素的权重系数。最后对分别红蓝编队协同空战的作战模式进行了作战效能仿真分析。

Abstract：

Based on the analysis of formation cooperative combat＇s characteristic,the effectiveness evaluation frame of formation cooperative combat was established by AHP. The factor that can influence the effectiveness of formation cooperative combat was emphatically studied. At the same time,the model of information predominance,decision-making capability,cooperative capability and attacking capability was established. Then,the weight of each factor was figured out by compare matrix. At last,the combat effectiveness evaluation of formation cooperative combat about red and blue was carried out.     

基于Sobol敏感性分析的装备体系保障效能评估

现代化作战都趋向于体系与体系间的对抗,装备体系保障能力已经成为影响装备体系作战能力的关键。为了定量衡量装备体系保障的效果,需要对装备体系保障效能进行科学的量化评估。首先进行装备体系保障能力分析,得出装备体系保障能力指标。其次,基于Sobol敏感性分析方法,对装备体系可用度进行敏感性分析,得到装备体系保障能力指标的重要程度。然后，基于Sobol敏感性分析，综合采用幂指数法提出装备体系保障效能评估方法。最后，通过多智能体仿真方法对某装备体系保障效能进行仿真评估,验证了所提方法有效性。     

基于BN的武器装备体系能力重要度分析

面对不断变化的未来不确定作战环境,在有限资源和技术水平下,武器装备体系顶层设计人员需要辨识与明确对体系建设目标影响最大的能力集合。提出用带置信度的区间数度量武器装备体系能力,用beta分布描述武器装备体系能力性能指标先验分布概率,在武器装备体系能力指标分解结构基础上构建了基于贝叶斯网络的武器装备体系能力重要度评估模型,利用贝叶斯网络的推理功能提出了能力重要度计算方法。最后,以空战武器装备体系为背景对所提方法的可行性和有效性进行了检验。     

基于改进灰狼算法优化SVR的航天侦察装备效能评估

定量评估航天侦察装备效能是武器装备体系建设的重要环节之一, 对装备发展和作战应用具有重要的现实意义。针对评估样本数据少、效能在多指标因素影响下变化规律非线性等条件下的效能评估问题, 提出一种基于改进灰狼(improved grey wolf optimizer, IGWO)算法优化的支持向量回归机(support vector regression, SVR)评估方法(IGWO-SVR)。引入反向学习策略及余弦非线性收敛因子改进灰狼优化算法收敛性能及全局寻优能力, 并将其应用于基于支持SVR效能评估参数的优化。基于航天侦察装备特点, 构建评估指标体系及航天侦察装备效能评估模型。最后, 通过对一定作战想定背景下航天侦察装备效能进行仿真评估, 验证了所提方法的合理性及优化模型的有效性。     

系统效能指数和效能因子的计算模型与方法

基于系统行为过程的效能概念框架及度量方法,建立了系统目标树的层级模型以及反映系统内、外因素行为关联关系的系统贡献度模型,根据该模型推导出了一组系统效能指数和效能因子的计算公式,通过对系统内外因素状态变化对系统效能贡献度影响的过程分析计算,验证了所建立的模型和方法的合理性.所给出的通过系统行为贡献度模型求解系统效能指数和效能因子的方法.可以简称为贡献度模型法,或SEIF(System effectiveness index and factor)法,适用于对系统效能变化规律的分析和实际运行效能的量化评估.     

基于Stacking集成元模型的作战体系能力图谱生成方法

作战体系能力图谱是从整体分析作战体系能力的有效方法.针对生成作战体系能力图谱时,需要对海量实验空间进行仿真而带来时效性较差的问题,提出一种基于Stacking集成元模型的作战体系能力图谱生成方法.该方法通过建立元模型替代仿真模型,能够快速准确生成作战体系能力图谱.针对各类元模型适用场景有限、性能波动较大的问题,提出采用...     

企业领导者综合素质进步效度动态测评分析

企业领导者的行为素质并不是抽象的因素,其综合表现必然体现于测评单元实力的动态变化中,以反映领导者主观努力程度的效度指标作为测评基础,以三次相对评价值作为技术指标,应用数据包络分析方法(Data Envelopment Analysis)测算综合素质的进步效度,将实现对企业领导者综合素质的有效测评.     

SEA方法及其在$C^3I$系统效能分析中的应用(Ⅲ)——监视模型

针对ＳＥＡ方法的要求，提出了评估$Ｃ^３Ｉ$系统在执行监视任务时的系统效能的三个性能量度（ＭＯＰ），通过分析$Ｃ^３Ｉ$系统在执行监视任务时的行为过程和环境特点，结合排队理论，建立了评估$Ｃ^３Ｉ$系统监视效能的ＳＥＡ方法模型．利用该模型计算了一个实际$Ｃ^３Ｉ$系统的监视效能，并对结果进行了简要分析．     

基于ADC法的防空导弹武器系统效能建模

基于ADC(availability dependability capability)法对防空导弹武器系统效能进行建模。针对防空导弹武器系统复杂的特点,构建了系统的多状态及状态转移的路径,充分体现了武器系统的可靠性水平,建立了可用性和可信度模型。克服了ADC法的不足,对系统能力向量进行拓展,考虑了指控能力、抗干扰能力、生存能力等综合性指标,突破单指标效能评估的局限性。采用多种方法组合,对量纲类指标采用标度法进行计算,对定量概率指标采用参数法进行建模,对定性概率指标采用标度法结合德尔菲法进行量化。通过算例的验证表明了该模型适用、准确。     

基于ADC法的防空导弹武器系统效能建模

基于ADC(availability dependability capability)法对防空导弹武器系统效能进行建模。针对防空导弹武器系统复杂的特点,构建了系统的多状态及状态转移的路径,充分体现了武器系统的可靠性水平,建立了可用性和可信度模型。克服了ADC法的不足,对系统能力向量进行拓展,考虑了指控能力、抗干扰能力、生存能力等综合性指标,突破单指标效能评估的局限性。采用多种方法组合,对量纲类指标采用标度法进行计算,对定量概率指标采用参数法进行建模,对定性概率指标采用标度法结合德尔菲法进行量化。通过算例的验证表明了该模型适用、准确。     

扩展防空导弹C~3I系统作战效能评估方法研究

从扩展防空导弹体系 C3I系统的不同层次探讨了其作战效能的评估方法 ,并详细分析了扩展防空导弹体系作战效能度量指标的构成要素和综合方法 .最后给出了一个扩展防空导弹体系 C3I系统作战效能的评估过程和结果分析