Multi-parameters uncertainty analysis of logistic support process based on GERT

The uncertainty analysis is an effective sensitivity analysis method for system model analysis and optimization. However,the existing single-factor uncertainty analysis methods are not well used in the logistic support systems with multiple decision-making factors. The multiple transfer parameters graphical evaluation and review technique（MTP-GERT） is used to model the logistic support process in consideration of two important factors, support activity time and support activity resources, which are two primary causes for the logistic support process uncertainty. On this basis,a global sensitivity analysis（GSA） method based on covariance is designed to analyze the logistic support process uncertainty. The aircraft support process is selected as a case application which illustrates the validity of the proposed method to analyze the support process uncertainty, and some feasible recommendations are proposed for aircraft support decision making on carrier.     

Dynamic portfolio choice under the time-varying, jumps, and knight uncertainty of asset return process

By introducing a stochastic element to the double-jump diffusion framework to measure the Knight uncertainty of asset return process,this paper builds the model of dynamic portfolio choice, which maximizes the expected utility of terminal portfolio wealth.Through specifying the state function of uncertainty-aversion,it utilizes the max-min method to derive the analytical solution of the model to study the effect of the time-varying,jumps,and Knight uncertainty of asset return process on dynamic portfolio choice and their interactions.Results of comparative analysis show:The time-varying results in positive or negative intertemporal hedging demand of portfolio,which depends on the coefficient of investor’s risk aversion and the correlation coefficient between return shift and volatility shift;the jumps in asset return overall reduce investor’s demand for the risky asset,which can be enhanced or weakened by the jumps in volatility;due to the existing of the Knight uncertainty,the investor avoids taking large position on risky asset,and the resulting is the improving of portfolio’s steady and immunity.At last,an empirical study is done based on the samples of Shanghai Exchange Composite Index monthly return data from January 1997 to December 2009,which not only tests the theoretical analysis but also demonstrates that the proposed method in the paper is useful from the aspect of portfolio’s equivalent utility.     

Application of Disaggregated Logit Modeling with Stated Preference Method in Park and Ride Behavior for Non-local Private Car Travelers in Big Events

During big events, non-local private car travelers can be divided into two types which were returning in one day and in several days. It was demonstrated that those two kinds of travelers have distinct behavior on park and ride （P＆R）, due to their different travel demand and behavior attributes. In this paper focusing on the travelers returning in several days, the travel attributes and requirements for P＆R were analyzed with stated preference survey. A P＆R choice behavior disaggregated logit model was established and calibrated based on random utility theory. The model concludes three variables, which were travel time, parking fee and comprehensive attractiveness index for suburban satellite towns comparing to urban district. The results revealed that for travelers returning in several days the primary key point is increasing the attractiveness of suburban satellite towns.     

LRE试验台加注系统故障建模与仿真分析

在对液体火箭发动机试验台推进剂加注系统进行结构分析的基础上,对加注系统进行模块化分解,建立其工作过程模型,分析了动态系统中故障注入的方式,对加注系统的两种典型故障进行了故障建模与仿真分析,仿真结果很好地描述了故障状态下加注系统的工作性能,通过分析仿真结果能进一步丰富和完善试验台故障知识库。

Abstract：

Based on the structural analysis for LRE test-bed propellant filling system. The filling system was modularized and its working model was built. The method of injecting fault was analyzed. Two typical fault modes were injected into model and the simulation results were analyzed. The results described preferably filling system＇s working capability in fault condition. The simulation results and analysis can also be used to enrich and perfect the fault knowledge base of test-bed.     

曲面薄壳有限元离散误差分析和修正方法研究

基于曲面薄壳几何/物理方程和有限元离散原理推导,揭示了壳单元离散方法特点、刚度矩阵误差产生机理和范数表示方法。以航空涡轮发动机测压探针为例,深入研究了利用协调平板壳单元、非协调平板壳单元、一次和二次实体退化壳单元等不同类型单元离散曲面薄壳时,应力计算误差影响因素及变化规律,综述了单元的适用条件。基于Boltzmann模型提出了应力计算结果修正通式,通过FORTRAN语言编程修正应力仿真结果和ANSYS二次开发语言APDL命令实现应力修正结果的读取和后处理,应力修正结果与理论解相对误差小于5%,满足曲面薄壳设计和稳定性分析应用要求。

Abstract：

Based on the geometric physical equations and deduction of discrete process of finite element for curved thin-walled structure,characteristics of shell elements for discretion and discrete error for element stiffness matrix were analyzed theoretically,and the norm expression of discrete error for element stiffness matrix was put forward.Then,as an illustration,a probe for detecting the pressure inside turboprops was meshed by curved thin-walled shell element,compatible flat shell element,incompatible flat shell element and 3D degenerated shell element,respectively,and the stress of the probe was numerically calculated by FEM.On the basis of solved results,the stress error was analyzed thoroughly,the influence factors on the error and the applying situations for different elements were determined.Finally,the general form of correctional function was put forward according to the Boltzmann model.The program developed with FORTRAN was used to correct the numerical results and the APDL commands inside ANSYS software were utilized to read and plot the correctional stress results.Through the correction,the discrete error can be reduced within 5% that satisfies the requirement of application for structural design and stability analysis.     

An Application of Fuzzy Decision Theory in Combat Decision Simulation

In this paper a model of military command process under the combat situation is presented. The model is based on the Lanchester Equations and Fuzzy Decision Theory. The decision of a military commander is usually a process from precise to fuzzy and then from fuzzy to precise,and the model fitted this process well. The model was used in a Warfare Simulation System whose object is to evaluate the effectiveness of the military C3I systems.     

合作博弈的自私网格负载均衡的建模和仿真

针对自私计算网格的负载均衡问题,构建了符合其特征的自私网格数学模型和外来作业计算成本模型。利用合作博弈论分析该模型,验证了负载均衡为全局最优策略,并得出了多集群自私网格进行负载均衡的效果。由此提出了基于合作博弈的有界迭代负载均衡算法,解决异构负载集群在自私网格负载均衡中的公平性问题。最后,通过实验仿真验证了方案的有效性与实用性。

Abstract：

Aiming at the problem of load balancing in selfish computational grids, a mathematical model for selfish grids and a cost function for execution of foreign jobs were established. The cooperative game-theoretic framework was used to analyze the model in order to show that load balancing is a global-optimal strategy for grids and it is profitable to collaborate. Then, a bounded integrative load balancing algorithm was proposed which balances the load more equitably in multi-cluster heterogeneous load selfish grids. Finally, the results are assessed experimentally by simulation.     

Physical Examination Data Based Cataract Risk Analysis

Cataract is a very common eye disease and the most significant cause of blindness.In consideration of its burden on society,the focus was put on testing the risk factors of cataract and building robust machine learning models in which these factors can be utilized to predict the risk of cataract.The data used herein was collected by a Chinese physical examination center located in Shanghai.It contains more than 120,000 examinees and about 500 physical examination metrics.Firstly,association rules were adopted to filter 39 abnormalities which are more likely to incur the risk of cataract,and the significance of these abnormalities was tested with univariate analysis and multivariate analysis.The test results indicate that age,diabetes,refractive error,retinal arteriosclerosis,thyroid nodules,and incomplete mammary gland degeneration significantly increase the possibility of cataract.Various machine learning models were compared in terms of their performance in predicting the risk of cataract based on these six factors,among which the logistic regression model and the decision-tree based ensemble methods outperform others.The test set A U C of these models can reach 0.84.     

Intelligent control over chaos in the rolling process and its comparison with tracking control

Some existing methods for chaos control in engineering fields are analyzed and their drawbacks are pointed out. A tracking method can solve these problems to some extent, but it still depends on the mathematical model of the system to be controlled. An intelligent method based on fuzzy neural network (FNN) is used to control chaos in engineering fields. The FNN is employed to learn the inherent dynamics from the input and output of chaos, which can be used in the inverse system method, so that the method is free of the exact mathematical model of the system to be controlled. This intelligent method is compared with tracking method in the presence of measurement noise and model error. Simulation results show its superiority and feasibility.     

Dynamic pricing under temperature control for perishable foods

Consumers pay more and more attention to the quality of perishable roods, which is mainly affected by storage temperature. This paper presents a dynamic pricing model for perishable foods under temperature control. To maximize the total profit, the optimal price and storage temperature are obtained using Pontryagin＇s maximum principle. A static pricing model is provided to compare with the dynamic one. It is shown by a numerical example that the dynamic policy can make more revenue than the static one. Moreover, the managerial implications are analyzed and the effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated.     

冻融土壤水热迁移数值模型的建立及仿真分析

根据土壤中能量和质量守衡、地表能量平衡及空气动力学理论建立了冻融条件下土壤水、热耦合迁移模型、反映负温下土壤温度与液态水含量关系的联系方程和地－气间水热交换模型，采用隐式有限差分线性化迭代方法求解模型。在此基础上，对冻结条件下太原盆地中部汾河中洪积平原区土壤冻结规律及不同灌水定额下的水热动态进行了仿真分析，表明冬灌具有储水保墒作用。     

PAM对土壤蒸发的影响分析及其模拟研究

在栽种与不栽种作物的情况下,分别对3种处理的土壤蒸发进行抑制性及差异性分析,并结合气象因子对无作物的土壤累积蒸发量进行多元线性回归分析.结果表明,在无作物的情况下,随着PAM用量的增加,PAM对土壤蒸发抑制效果明显,3种处理两两差异显著,但未达到极显著水平;有作物的情况下,PAM对土壤蒸发抑制效果不明显,但3种处理间的差异性均达到极显著水平.模型的拟合结果表明,3种处理的土壤累积蒸发量均可用多元线性回归模型拟合,且拟合效果较好.图2,表5,参8.     

烟台地区土壤温度变化特征及预测模型研究

根据烟台某一气象站提供的2003年与2005年气象资料及土壤温度数据,对此地区土壤温度的变化特征及其预报模型进行了研究。结果表明：各个土层土壤温度变化规律基本一致,1月份土壤温度最低,到7月份达到最高值,同时也表现出土壤温度年变化振幅随深度增加而减小的规律。基于气象因子的多元回归模型对深层土壤温度预测精度不够理想,而BP人工神经网络模型（ANN-BP）相比多元回归模型则能显著提高预测精度,是一种良好的土壤温度预测模式。     

农业耕作土壤与人工经济林地土壤磁化率和质地特征对比

通过对关中东北部地区人工经济林地土壤（JJC2）和农耕地土壤（JJC1）磁化率与粒度分布特征的研究和对比．试图阐明土地利用方式对土壤发育过程的影响。结果表明：农业耕作土壤和人工林地土壤的磁性特征有着明显的差异;农耕地长期的耕作、污灌以及C4作物玉米的生长与秸秆焚烧等农业管理方式可以增大土壤风化成土作用强度,增加土壤的磁化率;土地利用方式对土壤粒度分布的影响显著,表层0～40cm,1年生作物农田土壤〈2μm和50μm～2000μm颗粒含量均高于人类活动干扰小的多年生园林土壤的含量;整个剖面耕地土壤和人工林地土壤〈2μm和50μm～2000μm颗粒含量变化差异均大于2μm～50μm颗粒变化。图1,表2。参14。     

平果铝矿高效复垦示范区土壤质量评价

以平果铝矿高效复垦示范区为例,由于平果铝矿在土地复垦时已经考虑了机械作业对土壤的滚压,所以忽略土壤紧实度指标,而只选择土壤有机质、全氮、有效磷、速效钾、pH值、含水率、密度和EC等8项指标对复垦土壤质量进行了综合评价。平果铝矿自1999年开始高效复垦示范区建设,在研究区分别对高效复垦1a、3a、5a、7a、9a的不同示范区土地上采集了5种不同示范区的土壤样品,分层次分别进行评价土壤质量。利用matlab7．0软件对数据进行处理与分析,结果显示：不同高效复垦示范区土壤质量差异较大,经济农作物、甘蔗示范区土壤较好,蔬菜、木薯示范区次之,桉树示范区较差;随着复垦年限的增加,土壤质量不断提高,但桉树出现异常现象,对于桉树示范区土壤质量的改善有待进一步研究。图2,表10,参16。     

三江平原小叶章湿地土壤中硝态氮和铵态氮含量的季节变化特征

选择三江平原典型小叶章湿地不同水分带上的两种土壤类型（草甸沼泽土和腐殖质沼泽土）为研究对象,对比研究了二者硝态氮和铵态氮含量的季节变化特征。结果表明,二者不同土层硝态氮含量的季节变化特征差异较大,缺乏相似性,而铵态氮含量的季节变化特征尽管差异较大,但存在一定相似性;二者不同土层硝态氮和铵态氮含量季节变化特征的差异主要与不同生长期植物吸收作用、融雪补给、大气氮沉降、冻层深度、土壤结构和水分条件的差异有关;不同土层硝态氮淋失、对铵态氮的吸附以及不同时期有机氮矿化和硝化一反硝化作用等进行的程度对其也有重要影响;尽管硝态氮和铵态氮含量的季节变化特征在两种土壤不同土层间差别较大,但均可用四次多项式进行模拟,模拟效果比较理想．基本反映了二者硝态氮和铵态氮含量的季节变化特征。图2,表2,参14。     

飞机除冰液地面除冰过程模型仿真与实验

描述了飞机地面除冰过程相关参数和热量损耗关系,选择机翼表面温度和积冰厚度作为描述该过程的状态变量,基于热平衡理论建立了该过程的数学模型。通过仿真研究,得出飞机地面除冰过程除冰效率的变化规律:提高除冰液温度,除冰效率明显提高;如果除冰液温度恒定,一味地增大除冰液流量,除冰效率提高不明显。在飞机地面除冰环境模拟装置上进行了模型验证实验,实验和仿真结果趋势一致,表明所建模型与实际过程匹配,可以为后续飞机地面除冰过程装备参数优化奠定基础。     

用多目标遗传算法优化设计水库分期汛限水位

水库分期汛限水位利用洪水的季节性规律,可在不降低水库防洪标准的前提下,显著提高水库兴利效益.论述了优化设计分期汛限水位的必要性、基于模拟调度优化设计分期汛限水位的可行性.以防洪、发电、航运等多目标来评价分期汛限水位方案,以不降低水库防洪能力为约束条件,建立了优化设计模型.对简单遗传算法进行了多目标评价、引入共享函数、线性变换适应度函数、优解保持策略、重新洗牌等改进,建立了一种改进的多目标遗传算法,用以优化设计分期汛限水位方案.以三峡水库为研究背景,采用混合编码方法描述分期汛限水位方案,利用1882~2003年宜昌站汛期的实测日流量资料进行模拟优化,得出了较优的分期汛限水位方案.计算结果表明,分期汛限水位优化设计能权衡防洪与兴利之间的关系,在满足防洪要求的前提下,显著提高水库兴利效益.     

有源电力滤波器直流侧电压控制系统的仿真

针对有源电力滤波器的特点,提出一种用MATLAB/Simulink元件库中的电力电子器件建立闭环控制系统的仿真模型,用特有的S函数对改进的ip-iq算法编程实现。仿真分析了投入APF前后系统建立过程各个变量的状态变化,针对其结果进行了定性分析研究,分析影响APF投入及其直流侧电压控制的各种因素。仿真分析表明,系统仿真模型有效地模拟了系统启动过程中,补偿电流指令及直流侧电压的过渡过程,对研究和应用数字化控制技术的有源电力滤波系统具有重要指导意义。     

基于LS-SVM的特征提取及在凝点软测量中的应用

提出了一种基于最小二乘支持向量机(LS-SVM)回归算法的特征提取新方法,并将其成功应用于柴油凝点近红外(NIR)光谱软测量建模。在该方法中,将特征提取公式表达成与LS-SVM回归算法相同的形式,这样就能通过LS-SVM求取最优的特征投影向量。用一个含120个样本的401维柴油近红外光谱数据集进行测试,通过该方法提取后,原始光谱数据集的特征被降到了6维并保留了原有99.58%的信息。同时,用该数据建立的软测量模型具有更快的学习速度和更高的测量精度。实验结果验证了所提的特征提取新方法应用于近红外光谱特征提取的可行性和有效性。