群体一致性及其在研讨厅中的应用

提出了一种群体一致性算法.讨论了在群体专家进行决策的过程中,当专家研讨形成了一些方案时,用群体一致性算法,使专家群体思维不断趋于收敛,并最终达到群体意见一致,得出各方案的排序及决策结果.在上述过程中主持人的作用非常重要,他引导专家群体达成一致,提高了群体决策的效率.针对宏观经济决策问题,提出了一种宏观经济研讨的近拟方法.在综合集成研讨厅体系中,使用群体一致性算法,以解决研讨厅中的专家群体思维的收敛问题.     

一种群决策中确定专家判断认真程度的方法

给出一种群决策中确定专家判断认真程度的方法。主要思路是通过提取专家判断矩阵的全部信息，确定专家意见的一致程度，从而确定专家判断的认真程度。最后给出一个典型的算例以说明该方法的可行性和有效性。     

一种群决策中确定专家判断可信度的改进方法

给出一种群决策中确定专家判断相对可信度的方法。主要思路是通过建立专家判断矩阵中包含的直接判断信息与间接判断信息之间的相互关系，确定专家意见的一致程度，从而确定专家判断的相对可信程度。最后，文章给出一个典型的算例以说明该方法的可行性和有效性。     

群决策的一致性寻求方法

针对群决策中决策者创建的方案不一致调整问题,定义了决策者的个性函数(划分为四种类型:个性偏执型、个性随和型、个性顽固型、无主见型),分析了个性函数在方案不一致性调整中的影响,给出了基于决策者个性函数的有效性分析模型,依据群对方案的接受的有效性程度和拒绝的有效性程度来筛选方案。该模型能有效避免群决策中的群体思维现象,扩大群决策方案的范围,提高群决策结果的可行性,算例说明了上述方法的实施过程。     

群体思维收敛性定量验证

本文证明当专家数足够多的时候,加权几何平均综合判断矩阵与加权算术平均综合判断矩阵都依概率收敛到客观排序向量,从而从数学上解释和验证了群体思维具有收敛性,这对钱学森先生提出的综合集成研讨厅理论具有一定的理论价值.     

基于专家信任网络的不完全信息武器选择决策

现代战争的发展必须统筹考虑多种类型装备发展与规划.武器装备建设方案的顶层设计大多都属于多属性群决策问题.如果采用传统的犹豫模糊方法,在专家权重未知和决策信息缺失的情况下,单纯依靠悲观或者乐观原则扩充元素,则忽略了专家的综合意见,对专家的评估的完整性造成了破坏,另外,专家权重依靠人为给定,可能存在一定主观偏差.基于以上原因,本文提出了一种不完全信息条件下基于专家信任网络的多属性群决策方法.与传统的犹豫模糊方法相比,提出的专家信任网络的概念,规范了专家权重的计算过程,并且综合各个专家的评估意见,进一步计算专家评估矩阵中的缺失值.本文以武器方案选择为例,完善了基于专家信任网络的犹豫模糊决策方法,证明了该方法的有效性,并分析了特定情况下的专家信任网络对最终决策结果的影响.     

带交易费用的集成专家意见在线投资组合策略

在多期投资组合选择过程中,频繁调整投资比例将会产生一系列的交易费用,是影响投资决策的一个重要因素.在线投资组合属于多期投资组合;投资比例需要按照投资期数逐步调整,而不是一次性确定的.本文将交易费用引入到在线投资组合模型中,应用集成有限个专家意见的弱集成算法设计在线投资组合策略.首先探讨了专家意见为在每阶段都固定地投资于单只股票的情形,得到了考虑交易费用的单一集成策略,证明了与最优专家意见相比,他们的累积收益平均值之间的差值存在渐进形式的下界.其次,讨论了专家意见为在每阶段都固定地投资于多只股票的情形,得到了带交易费用的混合集成策略,并给出了该策略的竞争性能分析.基于纽约证券交易所的股票数据,数值算例进一步说明了本文给出的带交易费用的单一集成策略和混合集成策略几乎与最优专家意见的性能一样好,并分析了交易费用对策略性能的影响.     

基于模糊距离和神经网络的自适应群决策方法

针对群决策中专家权重和评价指标权重难以确定的问题,提出了一种自适应群决策方法.设计了一种基于模糊距离的专家权重确定方法和基于神经网络的指标权重训练方法,并将其引入自适应算法中.在算法不收敛时,提出了一种专家权重的随机扰动策略使算法可以很好收敛.最后的实验表明,该方法可以很好地收敛于稳定解,得到专家群体对待评对象的客观、可靠评价.     

研讨厅中专家意见的可靠性研究

专家对方案的评价直接影响到研讨的结果。探讨了在研讨过程中,专家对各方案的评价结果不一致时,用广义熵来度量各专家意见的可靠性。当可靠性未达到给定标准值时,再次进行研讨,使专家思维逐渐趋于一致,整个过程体现了人机结合综合集成的思想。     

一种群决策中专家客观权重的确定方法

给出一种确定群决策中各专家客观权重的方法。将专家客观权重分为个体可信度权值和群体可信度权值;通过提取专家判断矩阵信息,确定专家在具体判断中自身的相对个体可信度权值,通过比较群决策中各专家信息的相似程度,确定各专家的相对群组可信度权值;最终得出专家判断信息合成时的各专家客观权重。给出的算例说明该方法的可行性和有效性     

The 12th International Conference on Service Systems and Service Management ICSSSM'15

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Enterprise resource planning implementation decision & optimization models

To study the uncertain optimization problems on implementation schedule, time-cost trade-off and quality in enterprise resource planning (ERP) implementation, combined with program evaluation and review technique (PERT), some optimization models are proposed, which include the implementation schedule model, the timecost trade-off model, the quality model, and the implementation time-cost-quality synthetic optimization model. A PERT-embedded genetic algorithm (GA) based on stochastic simulation technique is introduced to the optimization models solution. Finally, an example is presented to show that the models and algorithm are reasonable and effective, which can offer a reliable quantitative decision method for ERP implementation.     

A calculus for services innovation

Innovation in the services area - especially in the electronic services （e-services） domain - can be systematically developed by first considering the strategic drivers and foci, then the tactical principles and enablers, and finally the operational decision attributes, all of which constitute a process or calculus of services innovation. More specifically, there are four customer drivers （i.e., collaboration, customization, integration and adaptation）, three business foci （i.e., creation-focused, solution-focused and competition-focused）, six business principles （i.e., reconstruct market boundaries, focus on the big picture not numbers, reach beyond existing demand, get strategic sequence right, overcome organizational hurdles and build execution into strategy）, eight technical enablers （i.e., software algorithms, automation, telecommunication, collaboration, standardization, customization, organization, and globalization）, and six attributes of decision informatics （i.e., decision-driven, information-based, real-time, continuously-adaptive, customer-centric and computationally-intensive）. It should be noted that the four customer drivers are all directed at empowering the individual - that is, at recognizing that the individual can, respectively, contribute in a collaborative situation, receive customized or personalized attention, access an integrated system or process, and obtain adaptive real-time or just-in-time input. The developed process or calculus serves to identify the potential white spaces or blue oceans for innovation. In addition to expanding on current innovations in services and related experiences, white spaces are identified for possible future innovations; they include those that can mitigate the unforeseen consequences or abuses of earlier innovations, safeguard our rights to privacy, protect us from the always-on, interconnected world, provide us with an authoritative search engine, and generate a GDP metric that can adequately measure the growing knowledge economy,     

论生物系统中的功能不守恒性

根据能量守恒定律，能量一次转换所做的总功应等于输入的总能量。但在生物系统中，能量的转换是多次的，其总功之和大于系统输入的总能量，此现象称之为功能不守恒性。能量转换效率越高，功能差别越大。能量通过细胞水平的多次转换，总功可提高至2倍左右。能量通过生态系统水平多次转换，总功可提高至1．4倍左右。通过系统内各子系统能流之和称为序能，反映了系统有序性大小，它取决于系统输入总能量和能量转换效率。根据序能原理，用GDP^2／9(GDP为国内生产总值，Q为能量总输入)反映人类社会功能和效率，要比单纯用GDP更客观。绿色GDP应同时考虑使GDP^2／Q增长最大和使自然生态系统的序能最大。人的经济行为和动物的行为对策也符合序能原理。     

Dealing with Human Relations in Chinese Systems Practice

This paper is about the Wuli, Shili, Renli (WSR) systems methodology. An important concept within this, Renli, has been developed from Confucian philosophy to clarify to Chinese researchers the necessity of dealing with human relations in systems practice. At present, the only formal means of operationalizing Renli that people are exploring in China is to import from the West methods for organizing debate. However, the concept of Renli suggests that more is needed than methods alone. In particular, facilitation skills are required. It is argued that the development of facilitation skills can be enhanced if researchers can gain both theoretical and practical knowledge of group dynamics, and engage in activities of self-reflection to look at, and alter, their own roles in these dynamics and the wider sociopolitical system. There are therefore three aspects to Renli: the use of systems methods for organizing debate, the acquisition of facilitation skills, and self-reflection geared toward the development of facilitation skills and enhanced critical awareness of the politics of intervention.     

云环境中邮件服务器面向传输的优化设计

随着云计算的发展,新的应用不断涌现,但电子邮件服务依然占有着重要的地位.邮件服务器是一种I/O密集的应用.在云计算时代,越来越多的用户邮件保存在服务器端,邮件在从客户端传输到服务器端之前,邮件或者邮件的部分内容在服务器端可能已经存在.基于这种现象,提出了一种方案,通过引入计算的代价来降低通信量,从而提高邮件服务器的处理能力.对电子邮件的格式和SMTP协议进行了扩充,引入了附件和正文分离传输的模式.在邮件传输时,客户端先计算附件的散列值,并作为正文的一部分传输到服务器端,服务器端再根据散列值来判断附件是否需要传输.     

金工工艺的优化设计

运用价值工程与运筹工程理论, 在金工工艺单项设计指标优化的基础上, 对其设计指标也进行了全面优化。     

THE 8~(th) INTERNATIONAL CONGRESS ON INDUSTRIAL AND APPLIED MATHEMATICS

正August 10-14,2015Beijing,China The International Congress on Industrial and Applied Mathematics(IClAM)is the premier international congress in the field ofapplied mathematics held every four years under the auspices ofthe International Council for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.From August 10 to 14,2015,mathematicians,scientists and entrepreneurs fiom around the world will gather in Beijing,China for the 8th IClAM to be held at     

基于动力学仿真的多管火箭多因素分析

多管火箭武器的系统效能有多个指标,而每个指标又受到多个因素复合影响。按照武器系统效能分析的递阶层次,梳理了多管火箭性能分析的多因素问题。提出了基于虚拟样机动力学仿真过程多因素问题的数据挖掘方法及分析手段,弥补了传统方法对多因素问题决策分析的不足。并以多管火箭系统效能第四级指标起始扰动的三种影响因素为例进行了研究和验证。