Negligible glacial-interglacial variation in continental chemical weathering rates

Chemical weathering of the continents is central to the regulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and hence global climate. On million-year timescales silicate weathering leads to the draw-down of carbon dioxide, and on millennial timescales chemical weathering affects the calcium carbonate saturation state of the oceans and hence their uptake of carbon dioxide. However, variations in chemical weathering rates over glacial-interglacial cycles remain uncertain. During glacial periods, cold and dry conditions reduce the rate of chemical weathering, but intense physical weathering and the exposure of carbonates on continental shelves due to low sea levels may increase this rate. Here we present high-resolution records of the lead isotope composition of ferromanganese crusts from the North Atlantic Ocean that cover the past 550,000 years. Combining these records with a simple quantitative model of changes in the lead isotope composition of the deep North Atlantic Ocean in response to chemical weathering, we find that chemical weathering rates were two to three times lower in the glaciated interior of the North Atlantic Region during glacial periods than during the intervening interglacial periods. This decrease roughly balances the increase in chemical weathering caused by the exposure of continental shelves, indicating that chemical weathering rates remained relatively constant on glacial-interglacial timescales. On timescales of more than a million years, however, we suggest that enhanced weathering of silicate glacial sediments during interglacial periods results in a net draw-down of atmospheric carbon dioxide, creating a positive feedback on global climate that, once initiated, promotes cooling and further glaciation.     

High levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide necessary for the termination of global glaciation

The possibility that the Earth suffered episodes of global glaciation as recently as the Neoproterozoic period, between about 900 and 543 million years ago, has been widely discussed. Termination of such 'hard snowball Earth' climate states has been proposed to proceed from accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Many salient aspects of the snowball scenario depend critically on the threshold of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations needed to trigger deglaciation. Here I present simulations with a general circulation model, using elevated carbon dioxide levels to estimate this deglaciation threshold. The model simulates several phenomena that are expected to be significant in a 'snowball Earth' scenario, but which have not been considered in previous studies with less sophisticated models, such as a reduction of vertical temperature gradients in winter, a reduction in summer tropopause height, the effect of snow cover and a reduction in cloud greenhouse effects. In my simulations, the system remains far short of deglaciation even at atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of 550 times the present levels (0.2 bar of CO2). I find that at much higher carbon dioxide levels, deglaciation is unlikely unless unknown feedback cycles that are not captured in the model come into effect.     

Eocene bipolar glaciation associated with global carbon cycle changes

The transition from the extreme global warmth of the early Eocene 'greenhouse' climate approximately 55 million years ago to the present glaciated state is one of the most prominent changes in Earth's climatic evolution. It is widely accepted that large ice sheets first appeared on Antarctica approximately 34 million years ago, coincident with decreasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and a deepening of the calcite compensation depth in the world's oceans, and that glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere began much later, between 10 and 6 million years ago. Here we present records of sediment and foraminiferal geochemistry covering the greenhouse-icehouse climate transition. We report evidence for synchronous deepening and subsequent oscillations in the calcite compensation depth in the tropical Pacific and South Atlantic oceans from approximately 42 million years ago, with a permanent deepening 34 million years ago. The most prominent variations in the calcite compensation depth coincide with changes in seawater oxygen isotope ratios of up to 1.5 per mil, suggesting a lowering of global sea level through significant storage of ice in both hemispheres by at least 100 to 125 metres. Variations in benthic carbon isotope ratios of up to approximately 1.4 per mil occurred at the same time, indicating large changes in carbon cycling. We suggest that the greenhouse-icehouse transition was closely coupled to the evolution of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and that negative carbon cycle feedbacks may have prevented the permanent establishment of large ice sheets earlier than 34 million years ago.     

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 60 million years

Knowledge of the evolution of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations throughout the Earth's history is important for a reconstruction of the links between climate and radiative forcing of the Earth's surface temperatures. Although atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in the early Cenozoic era (about 60 Myr ago) are widely believed to have been higher than at present, there is disagreement regarding the exact carbon dioxide levels, the timing of the decline and the mechanisms that are most important for the control of CO2 concentrations over geological timescales. Here we use the boron-isotope ratios of ancient planktonic foraminifer shells to estimate the pH of surface-layer sea water throughout the past 60 million years, which can be used to reconstruct atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We estimate CO2 concentrations of more than 2,000 p.p.m. for the late Palaeocene and earliest Eocene periods (from about 60 to 52 Myr ago), and find an erratic decline between 55 and 40 Myr ago that may have been caused by reduced CO2 outgassing from ocean ridges, volcanoes and metamorphic belts and increased carbon burial. Since the early Miocene (about 24 Myr ago), atmospheric CO2 concentrations appear to have remained below 500 p.p.m. and were more stable than before, although transient intervals of CO2 reduction may have occurred during periods of rapid cooling approximately 15 and 3 Myr ago.     

A carbon isotope challenge to the snowball Earth

The snowball Earth hypothesis postulates that the planet was entirely covered by ice for millions of years in the Neoproterozoic era, in a self-enhanced glaciation caused by the high albedo of the ice-covered planet. In a hard-snowball picture, the subsequent rapid unfreezing resulted from an ultra-greenhouse event attributed to the buildup of volcanic carbon dioxide (CO(2)) during glaciation. High partial pressures of atmospheric CO(2) (pCO2; from 20,000 to 90,000?p.p.m.v.) in the aftermath of the Marinoan glaciation (～635?Myr ago) have been inferred from both boron and triple oxygen isotopes. These pCO2 values are 50 to 225 times higher than present-day levels. Here, we re-evaluate these estimates using paired carbon isotopic data for carbonate layers that cap Neoproterozoic glacial deposits and are considered to record post-glacial sea level rise. The new data reported here for Brazilian cap carbonates, together with previous ones for time-equivalent units, provide estimates lower than 3,200?p.p.m.v.--and possibly as low as the current value of ～400?p.p.m.v. Our new constraint, and our re-interpretation of the boron and triple oxygen isotope data, provide a completely different picture of the late Neoproterozoic environment, with low atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and oxygen that are inconsistent with a hard-snowball Earth.     

Coupling of surface temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations during the Palaeozoic era

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations seem to have been several times modern levels during much of the Palaeozoic era (543-248 million years ago), but decreased during the Carboniferous period to concentrations similar to that of today. Given that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, it has been proposed that surface temperatures were significantly higher during the earlier portions of the Palaeozoic era. A reconstruction of tropical sea surface temperatures based on the delta18O of carbonate fossils indicates, however, that the magnitude of temperature variability throughout this period was small, suggesting that global climate may be independent of variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Here we present estimates of sea surface temperatures that were obtained from fossil brachiopod and mollusc shells using the 'carbonate clumped isotope' method-an approach that, unlike the delta18O method, does not require independent estimates of the isotopic composition of the Palaeozoic ocean. Our results indicate that tropical sea surface temperatures were significantly higher than today during the Early Silurian period (443-423 Myr ago), when carbon dioxide concentrations are thought to have been relatively high, and were broadly similar to today during the Late Carboniferous period (314-300 Myr ago), when carbon dioxide concentrations are thought to have been similar to the present-day value. Our results are consistent with the proposal that increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations drive or amplify increased global temperatures.     

A Cenozoic record of the equatorial Pacific carbonate compensation depth

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and climate are regulated on geological timescales by the balance between carbon input from volcanic and metamorphic outgassing and its removal by weathering feedbacks; these feedbacks involve the erosion of silicate rocks and organic-carbon-bearing rocks. The integrated effect of these processes is reflected in the calcium carbonate compensation depth, which is the oceanic depth at which calcium carbonate is dissolved. Here we present a carbonate accumulation record that covers the past 53 million years from a depth transect in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The carbonate compensation depth tracks long-term ocean cooling, deepening from 3.0-3.5?kilometres during the early Cenozoic (approximately 55?million years ago) to 4.6 kilometres at present, consistent with an overall Cenozoic increase in weathering. We find large superimposed fluctuations in carbonate compensation depth during the middle and late Eocene. Using Earth system models, we identify changes in weathering and the mode of organic-carbon delivery as two key processes to explain these large-scale Eocene fluctuations of the carbonate compensation depth.     

Impacts of orbital forcing and atmospheric carbon dioxide on Miocene ice-sheet expansion

The processes causing the middle Miocene global cooling, which marked the Earth's final transition into an 'icehouse' climate about 13.9 million years ago (Myr ago), remain enigmatic. Tectonically driven circulation changes and variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have been suggested as driving mechanisms, but the lack of adequately preserved sedimentary successions has made rigorous testing of these hypotheses difficult. Here we present high-resolution climate proxy records, covering the period from 14.7 to 12.7 million years ago, from two complete sediment cores from the northwest and southeast subtropical Pacific Ocean. Using new chronologies through the correlation to the latest orbital model, we find relatively constant, low summer insolation over Antarctica coincident with declining atmospheric carbon dioxide levels at the time of Antarctic ice-sheet expansion and global cooling, suggesting a causal link. We surmise that the thermal isolation of Antarctica played a role in providing sustained long-term climatic boundary conditions propitious for ice-sheet formation. Our data document that Antarctic glaciation was rapid, taking place within two obliquity cycles, and coincided with a striking transition from obliquity to eccentricity as the drivers of climatic change.     

High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present

Changes in past atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations can be determined by measuring the composition of air trapped in ice cores from Antarctica. So far, the Antarctic Vostok and EPICA Dome C ice cores have provided a composite record of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels over the past 650,000 years. Here we present results of the lowest 200 m of the Dome C ice core, extending the record of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration by two complete glacial cycles to 800,000 yr before present. From previously published data and the present work, we find that atmospheric carbon dioxide is strongly correlated with Antarctic temperature throughout eight glacial cycles but with significantly lower concentrations between 650,000 and 750,000 yr before present. Carbon dioxide levels are below 180 parts per million by volume (p.p.m.v.) for a period of 3,000 yr during Marine Isotope Stage 16, possibly reflecting more pronounced oceanic carbon storage. We report the lowest carbon dioxide concentration measured in an ice core, which extends the pre-industrial range of carbon dioxide concentrations during the late Quaternary by about 10 p.p.m.v. to 172-300 p.p.m.v.     

Large temperature drop across the Eocene-Oligocene transition in central North America

The Eocene-Oligocene transition towards a cool climate (approximately 33.5 million years ago) was one of the most pronounced climate events during the Cenozoic era. The marine record of this transition has been extensively studied. However, significantly less research has focused on continental climate change at the time, yielding partly inconsistent results on the magnitude and timing of the changes. Here we use a combination of in vivo stable isotope compositions of fossil tooth enamel with diagenetic stable isotope compositions of fossil bone to derive a high-resolution (about 40,000 years) continental temperature record for the Eocene-Oligocene transition. We find a large drop in mean annual temperature of 8.2 +/- 3.1 degrees C over about 400,000 years, the possibility of a small increase in temperature seasonality, and no resolvable change in aridity across the transition. The large change in mean annual temperature, exceeding changes in sea surface temperatures at comparable latitudes and possibly delayed in time with respect to marine changes by up to 400,000 years, explains the faunal turnover for gastropods, amphibians and reptiles, whereas most mammals in the region were unaffected. Our results are in agreement with modelling studies that attribute the climate cooling at the Eocene-Oligocene transition to a significant drop in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.     

Climate sensitivity constrained by CO2 concentrations over the past 420 million years

A firm understanding of the relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and temperature is critical for interpreting past climate change and for predicting future climate change. A recent synthesis suggests that the increase in global-mean surface temperature in response to a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, termed 'climate sensitivity', is between 1.5 and 6.2 degrees C (5-95 per cent likelihood range), but some evidence is inconsistent with this range. Moreover, most estimates of climate sensitivity are based on records of climate change over the past few decades to thousands of years, when carbon dioxide concentrations and global temperatures were similar to or lower than today, so such calculations tend to underestimate the magnitude of large climate-change events and may not be applicable to climate change under warmer conditions in the future. Here we estimate long-term equilibrium climate sensitivity by modelling carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 420 million years and comparing our calculations with a proxy record. Our estimates are broadly consistent with estimates based on short-term climate records, and indicate that a weak radiative forcing by carbon dioxide is highly unlikely on multi-million-year timescales. We conclude that a climate sensitivity greater than 1.5 degrees C has probably been a robust feature of the Earth's climate system over the past 420 million years, regardless of temporal scaling.     

Changes in carbon dioxide during an oceanic anoxic event linked to intrusion into Gondwana coals

The marine sedimentary record exhibits evidence for episodes of enhanced organic carbon burial known as 'oceanic anoxic events' (OAEs). They are characterized by carbon-isotope excursions in marine and terrestrial reservoirs and mass extinction of marine faunas. Causal mechanisms for the enhancement of organic carbon burial during OAEs are still debated, but it is thought that such events should draw down significant quantities of atmospheric carbon dioxide. In the case of the Toarcian OAE (approximately 183 million years ago), a short-lived negative carbon-isotope excursion in oceanic and terrestrial reservoirs has been interpreted to indicate raised atmospheric carbon dioxide caused by oxidation of methane catastrophically released from either marine gas hydrates or magma-intruded organic-rich rocks. Here we test these two leading hypotheses for a negative carbon isotopic excursion marking the initiation of the Toarcian OAE using a high-resolution atmospheric carbon dioxide record obtained from fossil leaf stomatal frequency. We find that coincident with the negative carbon-isotope excursion carbon dioxide is first drawn down by 350 +/- 100 p.p.m.v. and then abruptly elevated by 1,200 +/- 400 p.p.m.v, and infer a global cooling and greenhouse warming of 2.5 +/- 0.1 degrees C and 6.5 +/- 1 degrees C, respectively. The pattern and magnitude of carbon dioxide change are difficult to reconcile with catastrophic input of isotopically light methane from hydrates as the cause of the negative isotopic signal. Our carbon dioxide record better supports a magma-intrusion hypothesis, and suggests that injection of isotopically light carbon from the release of thermogenic methane occurred owing to the intrusion of Gondwana coals by Toarcian-aged Karoo-Ferrar dolerites.     

Continental ice in Greenland during the Eocene and Oligocene

The Eocene and Oligocene epochs (approximately 55 to 23 million years ago) comprise a critical phase in Earth history. An array of geological records supported by climate modelling indicates a profound shift in global climate during this interval, from a state that was largely free of polar ice caps to one in which ice sheets on Antarctica approached their modern size. However, the early glaciation history of the Northern Hemisphere is a subject of controversy. Here we report stratigraphically extensive ice-rafted debris, including macroscopic dropstones, in late Eocene to early Oligocene sediments from the Norwegian-Greenland Sea that were deposited between about 38 and 30 million years ago. Our data indicate sediment rafting by glacial ice, rather than sea ice, and point to East Greenland as the likely source. Records of this type from one site alone cannot be used to determine the extent of ice involved. However, our data suggest the existence of (at least) isolated glaciers on Greenland about 20 million years earlier than previously documented, at a time when temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were substantially higher.     

Late Miocene decoupling of oceanic warmth and atmospheric carbon dioxide forcing

Deep-time palaeoclimate studies are vitally important for developing a complete understanding of climate responses to changes in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (that is, the atmospheric partial pressure of CO(2), p(co(2))). Although past studies have explored these responses during portions of the Cenozoic era (the most recent 65.5 million years (Myr) of Earth history), comparatively little is known about the climate of the late Miocene (～12-5 Myr ago), an interval with p(co(2)) values of only 200-350?parts per million by volume but nearly ice-free conditions in the Northern Hemisphere and warmer-than-modern temperatures on the continents. Here we present quantitative geochemical sea surface temperature estimates from the Miocene mid-latitude North Pacific Ocean, and show that oceanic warmth persisted throughout the interval of low p(co(2)) ～12-5 Myr ago. We also present new stable isotope measurements from the western equatorial Pacific that, in conjunction with previously published data, reveal a long-term trend of thermocline shoaling in the equatorial Pacific since ～13?Myr ago. We propose that a relatively deep global thermocline, reductions in low-latitude gradients in sea surface temperature, and cloud and water vapour feedbacks may help to explain the warmth of the late Miocene. Additional shoaling of the thermocline after 5?Myr ago probably explains the stronger coupling between p(co(2)), sea surface temperatures and climate that is characteristic of the more recent Pliocene and Pleistocene epochs.     

Stable sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific warm pool over the past 1.75 million years

About 850,000 years ago, the period of the glacial cycles changed from 41,000 to 100,000 years. This mid-Pleistocene climate transition has been attributed to global cooling, possibly caused by a decrease in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. However, evidence for such cooling is currently restricted to the cool upwelling regions in the eastern equatorial oceans, although the tropical warm pools on the western side of the ocean basins are particularly sensitive to changes in radiative forcing. Here we present high-resolution records of sea surface temperatures spanning the past 1.75 million years, obtained from oxygen isotopes and Mg/Ca ratios in planktonic foraminifera from the western Pacific warm pool. In contrast with the eastern equatorial regions, sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific warm pool are relatively stable throughout the Pleistocene epoch, implying little long-term change in the tropical net radiation budget. Our results challenge the hypothesis of a gradual decrease in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as a dominant trigger of the longer glacial cycles since 850,000 years ago. Instead, we infer that the temperature contrast across the equatorial Pacific Ocean increased, which might have had a significant influence on the mid-Pleistocene climate transition.     

Palaeoclimatology: the record for marine isotopic stage 11

The marine isotopic stage 11 (MIS 11) is an extraordinarily long interglacial period in the Earth's history that occurred some 400,000 years ago and lasted for about 30,000 years. During this period there were weak, astronomically induced changes in the distribution of solar energy reaching the Earth. The conditions of this orbital climate forcing are similar to those of today's interglacial period, and they rendered the climate susceptible to other forcing--for example, to changes in the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Here we use ice-core data from the Antarctic Vostok core to reconstruct a complete atmospheric carbon dioxide record for MIS 11. The record indicates that values for carbon dioxide throughout the interglacial period were close to the Earth's pre-industrial levels and that both solar energy and carbon dioxide may have helped to make MIS 11 exceptionally long. Anomalies in the oceanic carbonate system recorded in marine sediments at the time, for example while coral reefs were forming, apparently left no signature on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.     

Efficient organic carbon burial in the Bengal fan sustained by the Himalayan erosional system

Continental erosion controls atmospheric carbon dioxide levels on geological timescales through silicate weathering, riverine transport and subsequent burial of organic carbon in oceanic sediments. The efficiency of organic carbon deposition in sedimentary basins is however limited by the organic carbon load capacity of the sediments and organic carbon oxidation in continental margins. At the global scale, previous studies have suggested that about 70 per cent of riverine organic carbon is returned to the atmosphere, such as in the Amazon basin. Here we present a comprehensive organic carbon budget for the Himalayan erosional system, including source rocks, river sediments and marine sediments buried in the Bengal fan. We show that organic carbon export is controlled by sediment properties, and that oxidative loss is negligible during transport and deposition to the ocean. Our results indicate that 70 to 85 per cent of the organic carbon is recent organic matter captured during transport, which serves as a net sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide. The amount of organic carbon deposited in the Bengal basin represents about 10 to 20 per cent of the total terrestrial organic carbon buried in oceanic sediments. High erosion rates in the Himalayas generate high sedimentation rates and low oxygen availability in the Bay of Bengal that sustain the observed extreme organic carbon burial efficiency. Active orogenic systems generate enhanced physical erosion and the resulting organic carbon burial buffers atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, thereby exerting a negative feedback on climate over geological timescales.     

Carbon dioxide release from the North Pacific abyss during the last deglaciation

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were significantly lower during glacial periods than during intervening interglacial periods, but the mechanisms responsible for this difference remain uncertain. Many recent explanations call on greater carbon storage in a poorly ventilated deep ocean during glacial periods, but direct evidence regarding the ventilation and respired carbon content of the glacial deep ocean is sparse and often equivocal. Here we present sedimentary geochemical records from sites spanning the deep subarctic Pacific that--together with previously published results--show that a poorly ventilated water mass containing a high concentration of respired carbon dioxide occupied the North Pacific abyss during the Last Glacial Maximum. Despite an inferred increase in deep Southern Ocean ventilation during the first step of the deglaciation (18,000-15,000 years ago), we find no evidence for improved ventilation in the abyssal subarctic Pacific until a rapid transition approximately 14,600 years ago: this change was accompanied by an acceleration of export production from the surface waters above but only a small increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. We speculate that these changes were mechanistically linked to a roughly coeval increase in deep water formation in the North Atlantic, which flushed respired carbon dioxide from northern abyssal waters, but also increased the supply of nutrients to the upper ocean, leading to greater carbon dioxide sequestration at mid-depths and stalling the rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Our findings are qualitatively consistent with hypotheses invoking a deglacial flushing of respired carbon dioxide from an isolated, deep ocean reservoir, but suggest that the reservoir may have been released in stages, as vigorous deep water ventilation switched between North Atlantic and Southern Ocean source regions.     

Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model

The continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide due to anthropogenic emissions is predicted to lead to significant changes in climate. About half of the current emissions are being absorbed by the ocean and by land ecosystems, but this absorption is sensitive to climate as well as to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, creating a feedback loop. General circulation models have generally excluded the feedback between climate and the biosphere, using static vegetation distributions and CO2 concentrations from simple carbon-cycle models that do not include climate change. Here we present results from a fully coupled, three-dimensional carbon-climate model, indicating that carbon-cycle feedbacks could significantly accelerate climate change over the twenty-first century. We find that under a 'business as usual' scenario, the terrestrial biosphere acts as an overall carbon sink until about 2050, but turns into a source thereafter. By 2100, the ocean uptake rate of 5 Gt C yr(-1) is balanced by the terrestrial carbon source, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are 250 p.p.m.v. higher in our fully coupled simulation than in uncoupled carbon models, resulting in a global-mean warming of 5.5 K, as compared to 4 K without the carbon-cycle feedback.     

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations before 2.2 billion years ago

The composition of the Earth's early atmosphere is a subject of continuing debate. In particular, it has been suggested that elevated concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide would have been necessary to maintain normal surface temperatures in the face of lower solar luminosity in early Earth history. Fossil weathering profiles, known as palaeosols, have provided semi-quantitative constraints on atmospheric oxygen partial pressure (pO2) before 2.2 Gyr ago. Here we use the same well studied palaeosols to constrain atmospheric pCO2 between 2.75 and 2.2 Gyr ago. The observation that iron lost from the tops of these profiles was reprecipitated lower down as iron silicate minerals, rather than as iron carbonate, indicates that atmospheric pCO2 must have been less than 10(-1.4) atm--about 100 times today's level of 360 p.p.m., and at least five times lower than that required in one-dimensional climate models to compensate for lower solar luminosity at 2.75 Gyr. Our results suggest that either the Earth's early climate was much more sensitive to increases in pCO2 than has been thought, or that one or more greenhouse gases other than CO2 contributed significantly to the atmosphere's radiative balance during the late Archaean and early Proterozoic eons.