汶川中强余震地震动峰值衰减关系

汶川地震强余震流动观测中获取了丰富的强震动加速度记录,这些数据在震中距和震级上分布较为均匀,为建立地震动衰减关系提供了良好的数据基础.这也改变了中国大陆缺乏强震动观测数据,尤其是近场强震观测数据,在建立地震动衰减关系时,不得不依赖于其它国家和地区观测数据的状况.鉴于汶川地震最大余震震级为Ms6.4,与Ms8.0的主震之间存在较大的震级缺档,本文仅就Ms4.5—6.4震级范围内、震中距小于110km区域范围内的强余震流动观测数据进行了统计回归分析,建立了地震动速度峰值(PGV)、加速度峰值(PGA)以及0.04—6s周期内阻尼比5%的绝对加速度反应谱(PSA)等地震动参数的衰减关系.回归结果的误差分析表明,PGV衰减关系的均方差明显较PGA和PSA的小,说明PGV较加速度的离散小.衰减关系的残差随震中距的增大而减小,表明近场地震动强度随机性更强.经比较,本文衰减关系与现有的四川地区其它衰减关系有较明显的差异,由于其他衰减关系是基于映射法的结果,因此,本文的结果更为可信.     

2021年5月21日云南漾濞6.4级地震强地面运动特性分析

2021年5月21日,中国云南省大理白族自治州漾濞彝族自治县苍山西镇发生6.4级强地震及多次余震。本文对此次地震中获得的20组共60条强震动记录进行了基线校正和滤波等处理,按照震中距由近及远,重点研究了地震动幅值衰减规律、持时特性和加速度反应谱特征。结果表明：此次地震记录多为中远场记录,近场记录较少,漾濞台站获得的峰值地面加速度(PGA)为720.3 cm/s²,地震动幅值随着震中距的增大而逐渐衰减。在近场范围内,台站记录体现出高幅值PGA、低幅值峰值地面速度(PGV)的特点,PGA和PGV观测值与预测值的衰减规律一致;对于中远场而言,Huo与Yu模型相比,其预测值更接近观测值,但两个模型都低估了实际地震动的最大峰值。持时随着震中距的增大而延长,符合线性规律;竖向与水平向持时的比随着震中距的增大呈现出先增大后减小的规律,符合高斯分布规律。加速度反应谱峰值随着震中距的增大而逐渐衰减,在周期大于1 s的中长周期段水平向反应谱峰值较竖向反应谱峰值衰减较快,而卓越周期逐渐向长周期偏移;反应谱峰值均位于短周期部分,不会对长周期建筑造成严重破坏;尽管漾濞地区抗震设防水准较高,...     

近断层地震动竖向分量峰值特性研究

对收集到的近断层（断层距不大于15km）地震动竖向分量进行分类后建立样本库,采用最小二乘回归方法,建立统计分析模型,对竖向地震动的峰值加速度、峰值速度及峰值位移进行回归分析;建立峰值参数与震级和断层距的衰减关系式及其相关系数,与其他研究者及近断层地震实际记录的峰值参数进行对比。结果表明,推荐的峰值衰减关系式与实际结果吻合较好,近断层竖向地震动高频波显著,随断层距衰减较快,为下一步近断层竖向地震动的研究奠定了基础。     

美国加州Ridgecrest地震的地震动特性分析

为研究同一地震序列中两场震源相近,发震时间间隔较短的主要地震活动中获取的地震动时频特性的异同,选取了2019年7月美国加州Ridgecrest地震序列中震级分别为MW 6.4和MW7.1的两场地震,对比研究了两次地震中地震动参数随着震中距的衰减趋势,并与俞言祥模型进行了对比;讨论了这两个相近事件中地震动三要素(峰值加速度、反应谱和持时)的异同,重点分析了两条不利地震动的反应谱;通过希尔伯特-黄变换(HHT)获得地震动的HHT谱,分析了地震动能量在时间和频率成分上的分布特征.结果表明:大部分地震动参数的衰减趋势与俞言祥模型吻合较好;两场地震的反应谱基本相似;地震动HHT谱最大能量所对应的瞬时频率和地震动时程峰值加速度所在循环的峰-谷频率很接近;两次大地震相继发生可能会对结构造成更大的损坏.     

水平弹性双参数位移谱模型

为了得到可供基于位移抗震设计使用的水平弹性位移谱,首先采用CampbellBozorgnia地面运动预测方程,研究了矩震级、断层距和场地类别对水平弹性位移谱的影响;然后指出了我国《建筑抗震设计规范》GB 50011-2010中设计反应谱存在的问题;最后针对设计反应谱的不足,提出了包含场地地震动峰值加速度和速度的水平弹性双参数位移谱模型.研究表明:位移谱平台段起始周期是确定位移谱谱形的重要参数,其主要受矩震级的影响,随矩震级的增加而显著增加;场地地震动峰值速度与峰值加速度之比与矩震级存在正的强相关性,矩震级的影响可以通过在位移谱模型中包含该比值来体现;本文提出的双参数位移谱能较好地拟合实际强震记录位移谱;提供每一设防水准的地震动峰值加速度和速度区划图,并在抗震规范中给出每一设防水准的各类场地地震动峰值加速度和峰值速度的场地放大系数,可在规范中实现本文提出的双参数位移谱模型.本文的研究结果可为我国抗震设计规范的制订和修改提供参考.     

近断层长周期地震动前向性效应对峰值影响研究

筛选了断层距不大于15km的具有前向性效应的长周期近断层地震记录,分类汇总建立了统计分析数据样本库,对长周期地震动的竖向分量和水平向分量峰值比进行了分析,研究了震级、脉冲周期、不同分量对峰值加速度比的影响。在此基础上,采用前期建立的回归分析模型,对长周期地震动竖向分量和水平向两分量的峰值加速度进行了回归分析,拟合给出了峰值参数与震级和断层距的衰减关系式,通过拟合曲线与数据样本的峰值实测值对比,说明拟合关系式在一定的范围内可以用于近断层长周期地震峰值的预测。     

汶川特大地震的震级和断层长度

震级修订是世界各国地震台网(中心)地震参数测定工作的常规工作的一个环节。汶川地震发生后,我国地震台网速报的汶川地震的"面波震级"为7.8级;5天后修订为"面波震级"8.0级。美国地质调查局(USGS)国家地震中心(NEIC)速报的结果是"矩震级"7.8级;不久,将其修订为"矩震级"7.9级。地震后翌日,我们由"地震矩张量反演"得出,汶川地震的"矩震级"至少为7.9级,所释放的"标量地震矩"至少为4.4×1021N·m。无论是"面波震级",还是"矩震级",汶川地震都要比唐山地震("面波震级"7.8级,"矩震级"7.6级)大得多。汶川地震的"矩震级"(7.9级)比唐山地震的"矩震级"(7.6级)大0.3级,表明汶川地震释放的能量比唐山地震释放的能量大约3倍!事实上,汶川地震的断层长度大约为300km,也是唐山地震断层长度(不足100km)的3倍多。汶川地震的震级大、断层长,从震源特性的角度说明了为什么这次地震会造成如此巨大的破坏。     

云贵彝良-威宁中强地震地震动特性

2012年9月7日,我国西南云贵交界彝良-威宁地区连续发生两次中强地震,为地震动特性的比较研究提供了强震动记录．考虑距离、方向的影响,从地震动衰减关系和反应谱两个方面考查了两次地震强震动的工程特征．结果显示,竖向地震动峰值在近场和中场区域明显高于水平向地震动,竖向地震动峰值随距离衰减更快;55．6级地震动峰值在近场和中场明显大于必;5．7级地震动,但地震动峰值衰减速度也较快;与其他研究结果比较表明,这两次地震的峰值总体上偏低．尽管两次地震绝大多数台站的场地为土层场地,但其平均规准谱在中长周期段的谱值明显低于规范设计谱．     

嘉峪关台数字地震记录面波震级的偏差研究

利用嘉峪关地震台2008年至2013年记录的2880个地震的面波资料,采用与国家地震台网中心相同的面波震级公式,研究了嘉峪关地震台测定的面波震级与国家地震台网中心测定面波震级之间的偏差。结果表明:嘉峪关地震台测定面波震级的偏差与震中距离存在一定的关系,在10~1300范围内嘉峪关地震台的面波震级由偏小0.3,逐渐变化到偏大,200以后偏大0.2~0.3;在1300~1800范围内偏大0.2。     

基岩场地强地面运动加速度反应谱统计特征

根据强地面运动加速度数据，采用经验地震动衰减关系公式，利用回归统计分析的方法，研究竖向和水平向加速度反应谱的关系，统计分析结果表明竖向地震动与水平向地震动的关系比较复杂，不同周期竖向与水平向加速度反应谱的比值受震级和震中距的影响不同，用水平向加速度反应谱按简单的系数折算成竖向加速度反应谱的做法应慎重。     

Preliminary results pertaining to coseismic displacement and preseismic strain accumulation of the Lushan M S7.0 earthquake, as reflected by GPS surveying

This paper presents the coseismic displacement and preseismic deformation fields of the Lushan M _S7.0 earthquake that occurred on April 20, 2013. The results are based on GPS observations along the Longmenshan fault and within its vicinity. The coseismic displacement and preseismic GPS results indicate that in the strain release of this earthquake, the thrust rupture is dominant and the laevorotation movement is secondary. Furthermore, we infer that any possible the rupture does not reach the earth’s surface, and the seismogenic fault is most likely one fault to the east of the Guanxian-Anxian fault. Some detailed results are obtainable. (1) The southern segment of the Longmenshan fault is locked preceding the Lushan earthquake. After the Wenchuan earthquake, the strain accumulation rate in the southeast direction accelerates in the epicenter of the Lushan earthquake, and the angle between the principal compressional strain and the seismogenic fault indicates that a sinistral deformation background in the direction of the seismogenic fault precedes the Lushan earthquake. Therefore, it is evident that the Wenchuan M _S8.0 earthquake accelerated the pregnancy of the Lushan earthquake. (2) The coseismic displacements reflected by GPS data are mainly located in a region that is 230 km (NW direction) × 100 km (SW direction), and coseismic displacements larger than 10 mm lie predominantly in a 100-km region (NW direction). (3) On a large scale, the coseismic displacement shows thrust characteristics, but the associated values are remarkably small in the near field (within 70 km) of the earthquake fault. Meanwhile, the thrust movement in this 70-km region does not correspond with the attenuation characteristics of the strain release, indicating that the rupture of this earthquake does not reach the earth’s surface. (4) The laevorotation movements are remarkable in the 50-km region, which is located in the hanging wall that is close to the earthquake fault, and the corresponding values in this case correlate with the attenuation characteristics of the strain release.     

Plate-boundary deformation associated with the great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake

The Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004 is the first giant earthquake (moment magnitude M(w) > 9.0) to have occurred since the advent of modern space-based geodesy and broadband seismology. It therefore provides an unprecedented opportunity to investigate the characteristics of one of these enormous and rare events. Here we report estimates of the ground displacement associated with this event, using near-field Global Positioning System (GPS) surveys in northwestern Sumatra combined with in situ and remote observations of the vertical motion of coral reefs. These data show that the earthquake was generated by rupture of the Sunda subduction megathrust over a distance of >1,500 kilometres and a width of <150 kilometres. Megathrust slip exceeded 20 metres offshore northern Sumatra, mostly at depths shallower than 30 kilometres. Comparison of the geodetically and seismically inferred slip distribution indicates that approximately 30 per cent additional fault slip accrued in the 1.5 months following the 500-second-long seismic rupture. Both seismic and aseismic slip before our re-occupation of GPS sites occurred on the shallow portion of the megathrust, where the large Aceh tsunami originated. Slip tapers off abruptly along strike beneath Simeulue Island at the southeastern edge of the rupture, where the earthquake nucleated and where an M(w) = 7.2 earthquake occurred in late 2002. This edge also abuts the northern limit of slip in the 28 March 2005 M(w) = 8.7 Nias-Simeulue earthquake.     

Insight into the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake from GPS measurements in southeast Asia

Data collected at approximately 60 Global Positioning System (GPS) sites in southeast Asia show the crustal deformation caused by the 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake at an unprecedented large scale. Small but significant co-seismic jumps are clearly detected more than 3,000 km from the earthquake epicentre. The nearest sites, still more than 400 km away, show displacements of 10 cm or more. Here we show that the rupture plane for this earthquake must have been at least 1,000 km long and that non-homogeneous slip is required to fit the large displacement gradients revealed by the GPS measurements. Our kinematic analysis of the GPS recordings indicates that the centroid of released deformation is located at least 200 km north of the seismological epicentre. It also provides evidence that the rupture propagated northward sufficiently fast for stations in northern Thailand to have reached their final positions less than 10 min after the earthquake, hence ruling out the hypothesis of a silent slow aseismic rupture.     

Subcontinental-scale crustal velocity changes along the Pacific-North America plate boundary

Transient tectonic deformation has long been noted within approximately 100 km of plate boundary fault zones and within active volcanic regions, but it is unknown whether transient motions also occur at larger scales within plates. Relatively localized transients are known to occur as both seismic and episodic aseismic events, and are generally ascribed to motions of magma bodies, aseismic creep on faults, or elastic or viscoelastic effects associated with earthquakes. However, triggering phenomena and systematic patterns of seismic strain release at subcontinental (approximately 1,000 km) scale along diffuse plate boundaries have long suggested that energy transfer occurs at larger scale. Such transfer appears to occur by the interaction of stresses induced by surface wave propagation and magma or groundwater in the crust, or from large-scale stress diffusion within the oceanic mantle in the decades following clusters of great earthquakes. Here we report geodetic evidence for a coherent, subcontinental-scale change in tectonic velocity along a diffuse approximately 1,000-km-wide deformation zone. Our observations are derived from continuous GPS (Global Positioning System) data collected over the past decade across the Basin and Range province, which absorbs approximately 25 per cent of Pacific-North America relative plate motion. The observed changes in site velocity define a sharp boundary near the centre of the province oriented roughly parallel to the north-northwest relative plate motion vector. We show that sites to the west of this boundary slowed relative to sites east of it by approximately 1 mm yr(-1) starting in late 1999.     

Resonant slow fault slip in subduction zones forced by climatic load stress

Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements at subduction plate boundaries often record fault movements similar to earthquakes but much slower, occurring over timescales of approximately 1 week to approximately 1 year. These 'slow slip events' have been observed in Japan, Cascadia, Mexico, Alaska and New Zealand. The phenomenon is poorly understood, but several observations hint at the processes underlying slow slip. Although slip itself is silent, seismic instruments often record coincident low-amplitude tremor in a narrow (1-5 cycles per second) frequency range. Also, modelling of GPS data and estimates of tremor location indicate that slip focuses near the transition from unstable ('stick-slip') to stable friction at the deep limit of the earthquake-producing seismogenic zone. Perhaps most intriguingly, slow slip is periodic at several locations, with recurrence varying from 6 to 18 months depending on which subduction zone (or even segment) is examined. Here I show that such periodic slow fault slip may be a resonant response to climate-driven stress perturbations. Fault slip resonance helps to explain why slip events are periodic, why periods differ from place to place, and why slip focuses near the base of the seismogenic zone. Resonant slip should initiate within the rupture zone of future great earthquakes, suggesting that slow slip may illuminate fault properties that control earthquake slip.     

相关向量机在地震滑坡敏感性分析中的应用

 地震滑坡敏感性分析是地震次生灾害研究的重点内容之一。数据量大且致灾因素复杂是研究地震滑坡问题的难点。在对已有敏感性分析模型研究的基础上,以芦山地震为例,选取地面高程、坡度、坡向、地层、斜坡形态、斜坡结构、距断层平均距离、距水系平均距离、地震峰值加速度9个地震滑坡评价因子,建立基于遗传算法的相关向量机（GA-RVM）敏感性分析模型,生成地震滑坡敏感性区划图,统计结果显示滑坡正确率为99.74%,滑坡密度在极高敏感区达到27.4057个/km²。结果表明,相对于基于遗传算法的支持向量机,GA-RVM获得了更高的预测精度,可为进一步完成地震灾害预防提供依据。     

Interseismic and coseismic displacements of the Lushan Ms 7.0 earthquake inferred from leveling measurements

By using precise leveling data observed between 1985 and 2010 across the south section of the Longmenshan fault zone, and eliminating the coseismic displacements caused by the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake, the interseismic vertical deformation field was obtained. The result shows that the Lushan region, located between the Shuangshi-Dachuan fault （front range of the Long- menshan fault） and the Xinkaidian fault （south section of the Dayi fault）, is situated in the intersection zone of positive and negative vertical deformation gradient zones, indicating that this zone was locked within 25 years before the Lushan earthquake. Based on leveling data across the rupture zone surveyed between 2010 and 2013, and by eliminating the vertical deformation within 3 years before the earthquake, the coseismic vertical displacement was derived. The coseismic vertical displacement for the benchmark DD35, which is closest to the epicenter, is up to 198.4 mm （with respect to MY165A）. The coseismic dis- placement field revealed that the northwest region （hanging wall） moved upwards in comparison with the southeastern region （foot wall）, suggesting that the seismogenic fault mainly underwent thrust faulting. By comparing the coseismic and interseismic vertical deformation fields, it was found that the mechanisms of this earthquake are consistent with the elastic rebound theory; the elastic strain energy （displacement deficit） accumulated before the Lu- shan earthquake was released during this quake.     

基于概率情景的多场点系统地震风险分析方法

该文针对传统地震危险性分析方法面向多场点系统(诸如某一区域内多个建筑、某个基础设施网络)整体地震风险计算时的局限性,提出了基于概率场景的多场点地震风险分析方法。该方法首先结合地震潜在震源的震级概率分布函数以及地震动预测公式,并考虑地震动空间相关性模型,通过随机模拟生成大量的概率地震情景(地震动分布图),在地震情景集及相应概率信息的基础上对一些典型的多场点系统,例如独立多场点系统、串联多场点系统、并联多场点系统等进行了系统风险分析。并通过对比分析单场点与多场点系统的地震风险,对比分析考虑和不考虑地震动估计误差空间相关性两种情况下的多场点系统地震风险,最终得出了三种类型多场点系统地震风险表现的不同特征。结果表明:不考虑空间相关性会导致独立多场点系统高估低水平损失的概率、低估高水平损失的概率;会导致串联系统风险估计整体偏高;会导致并联系统风险估计整体偏低。     

Space geodetic evidence for rapid strain rates in the New Madrid seismic zone of central USA

In the winter of 1811-1812, near the town of New Madrid in the central United States and more than 2,000 km from the nearest plate boundary, three earthquakes within three months shook the entire eastern half of the country and liquefied the ground over distances far greater than any historic earthquake in North America. The origin and modern significance of these earthquakes, however, is highly contentious. Geological evidence demonstrates that liquefaction due to strong ground shaking, similar in scale to that generated by the New Madrid earthquakes, has occurred at least three and possibly four times in the past 2,000 years (refs 4-6), consistent with recurrence statistics derived from regional seismicity. Here we show direct evidence for rapid strain rates in the area determined from a continuously operated global positioning system (GPS) network. Rates of strain are of the order of 10(-7) per year, comparable in magnitude to those across active plate boundaries, and are consistent with known active faults within the region. These results have significant implications for the definition of seismic hazard and for processes that drive intraplate seismicity.