钻井地质参数的不确定性表征及分析方法

钻井地质参数是钻井工程设计的基础数据,由于地层的复杂性、预测模型的精度以及解释资料的误差等问题,地质参数的解释评价结果误差客观存在,其真值会分布于某区域内。首先提出钻井地质参数不确定性的概率分布和不确定度两种描述方法;然后基于层序地层学、概率统计等相关理论和方法,将同组地层内某段地层作为样本区间,区间内的地质参数作为一组测量样本,建立地质参数不确定性分析及量化描述方法,并基于信息扩散原理确定钻井地质参数的概率分布函数。实例分析表明,建立的钻井地质参数不确定性定量描述及分析结果更切合工程实际。     

基于概率抽样仿真异类输入不确定性传播方法

在已有概率、非概率不确定性描述理论的基础上,针对建模仿真中对不确定性下仿真结果的需求,提出一种基于概率抽样的异类不确定性联合传播方法.给出了基于概率框架的随机变量以及基于非概率框架的区间变量、模糊变量、不精确随机变量、模糊随机变量等不确定性描述方法.针对非概率框架下的不确定性描述方法存在的不确定性传播困难,分别给出了相应的概率框架转化模型.提出一种基于概率抽样的异类不确定性联合传播方法,实现了采用不同不确定性描述方法建模描述的不确定性变量的联合传播.     

复合地层小直径隧道掘进机掘进速度区间预测

合理准确预测隧道掘进机(tunnel boring machine,TBM)的掘进速度是实现TBM智能化控制的关键问题之一,复合地层小直径TBM施工的不确定性较常规地质条件更强,而传统预测方法对施工过程的不确定性考虑不足。在此通过引入区间预测方法,提出基于4种不同Bootstrap方法结合KELM-ANN模型的TBM掘进速度区间预测模型,并以南水北调安阳输水隧洞工程为例,选取142组工程实测数据验证区间预测模型的有效性。研究结果表明:基于Rademacher分布建立的模型预测结果优于其他3种方法,不仅可以得到较好的点预测结果,还可以构造出较为清晰可靠的区间将掘进速度实测值完全包络在内;随着置信水平的提高,区间可容纳的不确定性和风险也逐渐上升,通过变化区间宽度,能较好地量化和解释TBM施工过程中的不确定性因素对掘进速度的影响。研究结果可为TBM掘进性能预测和掘进参数优化提供参考。     

基于模糊概率理论的地层流体精确识别方法

充分考虑火山岩地层流体的交互性及模糊性特征,从模糊概率理论出发,应用测井解释基本原理,对选取的火山岩样本层位测井数据进行综合统计;借助离差平方和的概念,构建地层流体的模糊概率识别功能函数;应用模糊数学及统计理论方法,确定模糊概率的概率密度函数和隶属函数;在此基础上建立基于模糊概率理论的松辽盆地火山岩地层流体识别数学模型.实例计算的识别准确率在80%以上,表明该方法切实可行,具有推广应用的价值.     

井底压差对岩石破碎的影响机制

综合地层应力、井底压力、孔隙压力以及牙齿吃入地层引起的应力,建立牙齿吃入深度的表达式,依据摩尔-库伦准则建立钻头牙齿吃入地层的岩石破碎模型。将综合地层和钻井参数因素的误差函数β与深度x的比值作为欠平衡钻井的应用参考参数,计算各种压差和β/x条件下的吃入深度,并分析其变化规律。结果表明:在压差的作用下,具有渗透率和孔隙度的待破碎薄地层内的孔隙压力并非原始地层孔隙压力,而是随时间和位置的变化而变化,其分布规律可以用一维不稳定渗流来表示和计算;牙齿吃入深度的表达式可以将压力、流体等因素对岩石破碎的作用清楚地表达出来;所建模型可以解释欠平衡钻井提高钻速的力学机制,以及定量描述随钻地层压力监测dc指数法的适用范围。     

深水探井钻前含可信度的地层孔隙压力确立方法

针对深水探井钻井可参考信息有限的特点,提出改进的计算上覆岩层压力梯度和建立时深关系的方法.利用概率统计理论,研究Eaton法中各个参数对最终结果的影响规律和相互关系,提出基于层速度的有效应力法与Eaton法联合预测地层孔隙压力的方法,建立了含有可信度的地层孔隙压力剖面,使其不再是一条单一的曲线,而是具有可信度信息的区间.可信度越大,得出的地层孔隙压力梯度区间越大,其不确定范围越大;反之,虽然压力梯度的不确定范围缩小,但其可信程度也随之降低;地层孔隙压力的异常高压程度越剧烈,其压力区间也越大.西非深水区域一口探井计算结果与实测压力值具有较好的一致性.     

深度学习与Eaton法联合驱动的地层孔隙压力预测方法

海上深部复杂地层孔隙压力的精确预测一直以来是钻井工程面临的难题之一。针对传统Eaton法的局限性和现有数据驱动法的不足,通过构建地层压力实测点的扩充方法,构建卷积神经网络(convolutional neural network, CNN)和长短期记忆网络(long short term memory, LSTM)组合模型,充分挖掘钻测录震多源数据与Eaton指数之间的复杂非线性关系,可基于区块内已钻井的有限实测地层压力数据,实现全井Eaton指数的精细预测,为新探区地层压力实测点较少且分布不均等条件下地层孔隙压力的准确预测提供有效手段。结果表明：建立的方法预测深部复杂地层孔隙压力的平均相对误差为2.70%,而传统Eaton和LSTM方法的平均相对误差分别为7.60%和5.12%;通过深度学习与Eaton法联合驱动,不但提高了深部复杂地层孔隙压力的预测精度,也为传统方法融入了多源数据响应特征,为数据驱动方法提供了理论支撑。     

基于不确定性分析的钻井工程风险定量评价方法

为建立一套适用于复杂地质环境的钻井工程风险定量评价方法,首先分析地层压力和钻井液循环当量密度的不确定性,得到地层压力和钻井液循环当量密度的概率分布;在此基础上,基于广义应力与强度干涉理论,将广义应力定义为致险因子,即钻井液循环当量密度;将广义强度定义为安全因子,即地层压力;将功能函数定义为井下复杂与事故的风险函数;最终推导建立钻井工程风险概率计算公式,运用该方法可以定量计算钻井作业中危险井段发生风险的概率值。实例分析结果表明风险评价结果与实际发生风险相吻合。     

基于区间有限元的吊梁非概率可靠性研究及敏感性分析

为了满足吊梁可靠性设计的要求,需要考虑设计参数的不确定性对结构响应的影响.首先结合区间有限元法,对吊梁的不确定性用区间进行描述,建立有限元控制方程,针对控制方程中系数存在不确定性,利用－阶泰勒展开法对其进行求解,获得结构响应区间:其次,分析吊梁的可靠性验算,建立不同失效模式下的极限状态函数,基于非概率可靠性计算方法,得到吊梁的非概率可靠性指标:最后,对区间敏感因子进行定义,分析设计参数在区间内变化对结构响应的敏感程度,通过实例验证.研究结果表明:本文方法的合理性与可行性,并具有一定的工程参考价值.     

M区块碳酸盐岩地层压力预测方法探讨

地层压力是钻井工程设计与施工的关键数据。碳酸盐岩地层压力形成机制不明确,没有考虑地层压力与体积弹性模量间的响应特征,导致目前根据欠压实理论和有效应力定律建立的预测模型不适用于预测碳酸盐岩地层压力。根据M地区碳酸盐岩所处的地质特征、地层类型、地层压力分布规律以及测井曲线等现场资料,分析了碳酸盐岩地层异常高压的特点;根据孔隙弹性理论,建立碳酸盐岩地层压力的预测模型,解释了裂缝型碳酸盐岩地层易产生异常高压的原因。研究结果表明,碳酸盐岩地层压力的大小取决于岩石体积弹性模量和地应力。该模型在M区块多口井进行了应用,预测精度达到90%以上,验证了该方法的可行性。     

Markedness and its Interpretation in Language Use

Language markedness is a common phenomenon in languages, and is reflected from hearing, vision and sense, i.e. the variation in the three aspects such as phonology, morphology and semantics. This paper focuses on the interpretation of markedness in language use following the three perspectives, i.e. pragmatic interpretation, psychological interpretation and cognitive interpretation, with an aim to define the function of markedness.     

Lower Paleozoic oil relationships within Williston Basin, Canada

The Williston Basin is a significant petroleum province, containing oil production zones that include the Middle Cambrian to Lower Ordovician, Upper Ordovician, Middle Devonian, Upper Devonian and Mississippian and within the Jurassic and Cretaceous. The oils of the Williston Basin exhibit a wide range of geochemical characteristics defined as "oil families", although the geochemical signature of the Cambrian Deadwood Formation and Lower Ordovician Winnipeg reservoired oils does not match any "oil family". Despite their close stratigraphic proximity, it is evident that the oils of the Lower Palaeozoic within the Williston Basin are distinct. This suggests the presence of a new "oil family" within the Williston Basin. Diagnostic geochemical signatures occur in the gasoline range chromatograms, within saturate fraction gas chromatograms and biomarker fingerprints. However, some of the established criteria and cross-plots that are currently used to segregate oils into distinct genetic families within the basin do not always meet with success, particularly when applied to the Lower Palaeozoic oils of the Deadwood and Winnipeg Formation.     

An Analysis of Catherine＇s Character——Wuthering Heights

Wuthering Heights, Emily Bronte＇s only novel, was published in December of 1847 under the pseudonym Ellis Bell. The book did not gain immediate success, but it is now thought one of the finest novels in the English language. Catherine is the key character of this masterpiece, because everybody and everything center on her though she had a short life. We can understand this masterpiece better if we know Catherine well.     

Characterization of Ordovician carbonate reservoirs, southeastern Saskatchewan, Canada

The discovery of the prolific Ordovician Red River reservoirs in 1995 in southeastern Saskatchewan was the catalyst for extensive exploration activity which resulted in the discovery of more than 15 new Red River pools. The best yields of Red River production to date have been from dolomite reservoirs. Understanding the processes of dolomitization is, therefore, crucial for the prediction of the connectivity, spatial distribution and heterogeneity of dolomite reservoirs.The Red River reservoirs in the Midale area consist of 3～4 thin dolomitized zones, with a total thickness of about 20 m, which occur at the top of the Yeoman Formation. Two types of replacement dolomite were recognized in the Red River reservoir: dolomitized burrow infills and dolomitized host matrix. The spatial distribution of dolomite suggests that burrowing organisms played an important role in facilitating the fluid flow in the backfilled sediments. This resulted in penecontemporaneous dolomitization of burrow infills by normal seawater. The dolomite in the host matrix is interpreted as having occurred at shallow burial by evaporitic seawater during precipitation of Lake Almar anhydrite that immediately overlies the Yeoman Formation. However, the low δ18O values of dolomited burrow infills (-5.9‰～ -7.8‰, PDB) and matrix dolomites (-6.6‰～ -8.1‰, avg. -7.4‰ PDB) compared to the estimated values for the late Ordovician marine dolomite could be attributed to modification and alteration of dolomite at higher temperatures during deeper burial, which could also be responsible for its 87Sr/86Sr ratios (0.7084～0.7088) that are higher than suggested for the late Ordovician seawaters (0.7078～0.7080). The trace amounts of saddle dolomite cement in the Red River carbonates are probably related to "cannibalization" of earlier replacement dolomite during the chemical compaction.     

Features of Women's language

Language is a means of verbal communication. People use language to communicate with each other. In the society, no two speakers are exactly alike in the way of speaking. Some differences are due to age, gender, statue and personality. Above all, gender is one of the obvious reasons. The writer of this paper tries to describe the features of women＇s language from these perspectives： pronunciation, intonation, diction, subjects, grammar and discourse. From the discussion of the features of women＇s language, more attention should be paid to language use in social context. What＇s more, the linguistic phenomena in a speaking community can be understood more thoroughly.     

Design and analysis of generic LBS application developing platform

Location based services is promising due to its novel working style and contents.A software platform is proposed to provide application programs of typical location based services and support new applications developing efficiently. The analysis shows that this scheme is easy implemented, low cost and adapt to all kinds of mobile nework system.     

橡胶颗粒沥青混合料低温抗裂性试验研究

以AC-13级配为基础,将橡胶颗粒代替部分集料掺入混合料中,以低温弯曲试验为评价方法对不同橡胶颗粒掺量下沥青混合料的低温抗裂性进行研究,并引入应变能密度值对混合料的低温抗裂性进行综合评价.试验结果表明:橡胶颗粒沥青混合料试件的破坏微应变均超过2 300,满足冬寒区的技术指标;无论是否掺加橡胶颗粒,随着温度的下降,沥青混合料破坏时的最大弯拉强度增大,弯拉应变降低,劲度模量增大;弯曲应变能密度在胶粒掺量为1%左右时具有较大的弯曲应变能密度值,此时橡胶颗粒沥青混合料具有较好的低温抗裂性.     

A computer generator for randomly layered structures

AcomputergeneratorforrandomlylayeredstructuresYUJia shun1,2,HEZhen hua2(1.TheInstituteofGeologicalandNuclearSciences,NewZealand;2.StateKeyLaboratoryofOilandGasReservoirGeologyandExploitation,ChengduUniversityofTechnology,China)Abstract:Analgorithmisintrod…     

低渗透非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度研究

理论推导与室内实验相结合,建立了低渗透非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度确定方法。首先借助油藏流场与电场相似的原理,推导了非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度计算公式。其次基于稳定流实验方法,建立了非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度测试方法。结果表明:低渗透非均质砂岩油藏的启动压力梯度确定遵循两个等效原则。平面非均质油藏的启动压力梯度等于各级渗透率段的启动压力梯度关于长度的加权平均;纵向非均质油藏的启动压力梯度等于各渗透率层的启动压力梯度关于渗透率与渗流面积乘积的加权平均。研究成果可用于有效指导低渗透非均质砂岩油藏的合理井距确定,促进该类油藏的高效开发。     

Quantitative trait loci （QTLs） for quality traits related to protein and starch in wheat

Quality traits in wheat （Triticum aestirum L.） were studied by quantitative trait locus （QTL） analysis in a recombinant inbred line （RIL） population, a set of 131 lines derived from Chuan 35050 × Shannong 483 cross （ChSh）. Grains from RILs were assayed for 21 quality traits related to protein and starch. A total of 35 putative QTLs for 19 traits with a single QTL explaining 7.99-40.52% of phenotypic variations were detected on 10 chromosomes, 1D, 2A, 2D, 3B, 3D, 5A, 6A, 6B, 6D, and 7B. The additive effects of 30 QTLs were positive, contributed by Chuan 35050, the remaining 5 QTLs were negative with the additive effect contributed by Shannong 483. For protein traits, 15 QTLs were obtained and most of them were located on chromosomes 1 D, 3B and 6D, while 20 QTLs for starch traits were detected and most of them were located on chromosomes 3D, 6B and 7B. Only 7 QTLs for protein and starch traits were co-located in three regions on chromosomes 1D, 2A and 2D. These protein and starch trait QTLs showed a distinct distribution pattern in certain regions and chromosomes. Twenty-two QTLs were clustered in 6 regions of 5 chromosomes. Two QTL clusters for protein traits were located on chromosomes 1D and 3B, respectively, three clusters for starch traits on chromosomes 3D, 6B and 7B, and one cluster including protein and starch traits on chromosome 1D.