华北降水频谱变化及其可能机制分析

华北降水从20世纪60年代开始趋于减少,1977年后干旱化加重.小波分析发现1951～2000年华北降水频谱结构在60年代中期发生了突变,年际变化部分减弱,年代际成分相对增强,与此同时华北进入了干旱少雨的时期.年代际尺度成分的位相大致规定了华北降水偏多或偏少的时段.近20年与1977年前相比,华北降水的季节分布也发生了变化,春季降水增加,夏秋降水减少.相关分析发现华北降水与500 hPa高度及850 hPa经向风关系密切,7～9月降水主要与中国西北及西南的位势高度呈显著负相关,与南风呈显著正相关.观测资料分析指出,近20年7～9月我国西北500 hPa高度明显上升,东亚夏季风持续偏弱,这可能是华北持续干旱的重要原因.     

夏季江淮流域暴雨的特征及与旱涝的关系

基于1954-2004年全国743站降水资料和NCEP/NCAR月平均500hPa风场资料,分析了夏季江淮流域暴雨的气候分布和年代际变化特征.结果表明,江淮流域的暴雨降水存在明显的区域差异,局地暴雨频繁,具有明显的年代际变化特征,1990年代是高值期.通过相关和合成分析发现,暴雨与洪涝的关系密切,涝年暴雨降水可占到总降水的50%左右;1990年代,暴雨降水对洪涝的贡献明显增大.本文还分析了夏季暴雨年代际变化的500hPa环流背景,发现1990年代暴雨明显偏多的因素是:1,蒙古上空存在异常的反气旋环流,有利于中高纬地区的冷空气南下,长江以北地区盛行异常的东北风;2,西太平洋副热带高压加强,增强了低纬海洋上空水汽的向北输送.富含水汽的异常西南气流和北方地区异常的东北气流在江淮流域上空交汇,存在明湿的风切变,导致较强的上升运动,易于产生强降水.     

中国北方干旱区和半干旱区近60年气候变化特征及成因分析

利用1951-2011年中国756个观测站的月降水资料,分析了北方干旱区和半干旱区暖季降水的变化.结果表明干旱区和半干旱区的降水近60年来表现出相反的变化趋势:干旱区的暖季降水整体是增加的,增长速率为0.27 mm/a,而半干旱区的暖季降水整体是减少的,减少速率为0.80 mm/a.存在这样的差异主要是因为两个区域受不同的环流系统所控制,即干旱区为西风控制区,而半干旱区则为季风区.通过对两个区域降水偏多(偏少)年大气环流的合成分析发现,当西风气流加强、位置偏南,黑海、里海和巴尔喀什湖的水汽被输送到我国干旱区,有利于该地区的降水,反之干旱区降水则偏少;而当东亚夏季风较强时,水汽向西能到达甘肃中部(105?E),向北能到达整个华北和东北地区,因此半干旱区降水偏多,反之半干旱区降水则偏少.     

夏季江淮流域暴雨的特征及与早涝的关系

基于1954--2004年全国743站降水资料和NCEP／NCAR月平均500hPa风场资料,分析了夏季江淮流域暴雨的气候分布和年代际变化特征．结果表明,江淮流域的暴雨降水存在明显的区域差异,局地暴雨频繁,具有明显的年代际变化特征,1990年代是高值期．通过相关和合成分析发现,暴雨与洪涝的关系密切,涝年暴雨降水可占到总降水的50％左右;1990年代,暴雨降水对洪涝的贡献明显增大．本文还分析了夏季暴雨年代际变化的500hPa环流背景,发现1990年代暴雨明显偏多的因素是：1,蒙古上空存在异常的反气旋环流,有利于中高纬地区的冷空气南下,长江以北地区盛行异常的东北风;2,西太平洋副热带高压加强,增强了低纬海洋上空水汽的向北输送．富含水汽的异常西南气流和北方地区异常的东北气流在江淮流域上空交汇,存在明显的风切变,导致较强的上升运动,易于产生强降水．     

冬春海温异常对东亚初夏季风环流的影响

用ＯＳＵ的两层大气环流模式进行了热带西太平洋冬春海温异常对东亚初夏（５月）季风环流影响的数值试验．结果表明：①海温的负距平引起西太平洋副热带高压脊南落和西伸，东亚热带季风环流减弱，我国西南和华南地区的降水增加；②海温的正距平引起西太平洋副热带高压明显减弱，西太平洋的赤道西风加强，我国西南和华南地区的降水减少     

粤东暴雨中心前汛期降水异常的环流特征及前兆性信号分析

研究了1967～2018年粤东暴雨中心前汛期降水的年际变化,以及降水异常对应的环流异常特征,并对降水异常的前兆性信号特征进行分析。研究结果表明:1990年以后粤东暴雨中心前汛期降水年际变率增强,2005年以后降水偏多年异常增多。降水异常年的环流特征差异显著,偏多年对流层中上层高空急流增强,副热带高压范围偏大西脊点偏西,东亚大槽偏深,江南地区偏南风减弱,有利于粤东辐合增强;偏少年高空急流减弱位置偏北,副热带高压范围偏小,大陆高压增强,底层我国东部地区偏南风一致减弱,不利于粤东辐合。降水偏多(偏少)年的前兆性信号主要表现为极地海冰偏少(偏多)以及赤道东太平洋暖(冷)海温异常。进一步研究表明,高空急流以及东亚大槽和前期极地海冰异常有关,而副热带高压和前期赤道东太平洋海温有关。     

全球环流异常特征及其与中国气候变化的关系

采用球谐函数展开方法对1948—2009年NCEP/NCAR(美国国家环境预报中心/美国国家大气研究中心)高度距平场再分析资料进行分析,通过"时间-高度"的二维坐标方式考察环流异常的立体结构特征,发现南、北半球大气环流在1980年前后发生了明显的正负位相(槽脊)突变.与中国冬季温度和夏季降水的相关分析表明:前期春、夏、秋季的北半球环流纬向正异常越强,华北地区的冬季气温越高,反之越低;前一年冬季环流异常与华北—河套地区的夏季降水呈现反相关,春季北半球均匀异常环流与华北及西南夏季降水呈现反相关;大气环流的纬向异常与华北—河套地区的夏季降水呈现正相关,而同期环流异常与华北东部、西南及江南北部的降水呈现负相关.     

1960-2012年我国夏季降水的时空分布特征

基于1960—2012年我国8个区域310个站点的夏季逐月降水数据,采用趋势特征指数、M-K检验和空间差值等方法,分析我国夏季降水的时空分布特征。研究发现:从时空分布看,1960—2012年,长江中下游、华南、西北地区和青藏高原地区夏季降水量呈上升趋势,其中,长江中下游和西北西部地区夏季降水量显著增加,两个地区均在1990年代夏季降水量增加最多;东北、华北和西南地区夏季降水量呈下降趋势,从东北到西南一线,夏季降水出现了一条明显的倾向率负值带,其中,东北和华北地区夏季降水量减少最显著,东北地区夏季降水量在2000—2010年减少最多,华北地区在1980年代减少最多;区域内部安徽省夏季降水量增加最多,山东省、河北省、山西省、云南省和四川省夏季降水量减少最明显。长江中下游和西北西部地区夏季降水量变化达到突变水平,突变点分别发生在1986年和1989年,均表现为降水量由少到多的变化。长江中下游和华南地区夏季降水量增多,华北和东北地区夏季降水量减少可能是东南夏季风减弱造成的;西南地区夏季降水量减少可能与西南季风减弱有关,西风气流对流活动加强可能是造成中国西北地区夏季降水量增多的重要原因;青藏高原地形复杂,降水量受地形的影响较大。     

典型极端低温事件中高空急流和阻塞高压的特征及其协同作用

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、三维急流指数和二维阻塞高压指数,研究了高空急流和阻塞高压在典型极端低温事件:2008年初低温雨雪冰冻灾害和2016年"霸王级"寒潮事件中的协同作用,揭示了两次极端低温事件不同天气表征的环流成因.结果表明,与气候平均值相比,两次事件中东亚急流的配置均为增强的副热带急流和偏弱的温带急流,阻塞高压发生频率偏多(33%),强度异常偏强(3.5以上).2008年初高空急流强度较2016年更强,乌拉尔山阻塞高压持续稳定且强大,源源不断的向中国输送冷空气,中纬度低槽活跃,西太平洋副热带高压偏北,加强了向中国南方地区的水汽输送,造成该地区持续性低温和降水;2016年东亚温带急流较常年以及2008年都偏弱,使得阻塞高压异常偏强,横跨约40个经度,乌拉尔山地区500 hPa高度场正距平中心达300 gpm,阻塞高压脊前冷平流加强了近地面西伯利亚高压强度,在南移延伸至华北地区的东亚横槽转竖后西北气流的引导下,冷空气迅速入侵中国,造成短时间剧烈降温.     

东亚夏季风北边缘的确认

综合降水、风场以及假相当位温场,定义了表征东亚夏季风北边缘的新标准．这一定义能较客观地反映出夏季风推进的过程．其后,比较了4种表征东亚夏季风指数与夏季风边缘最北位置指数间的异同,证明后者与东亚夏季风指数之间有着不同的气候学意义:东亚夏季风指数集中反映的是东亚季风(30°N附近的长江中下游地区)主体特征;东亚夏季风边缘带作为它的边缘部分,集中反映出我国北方(35°N以北)夏季降水的年际和年代际变化特征．从计算得到的1961—2001年(41年)东亚夏季风边缘带最北位置序列中发现,在1977—1979年期间其最北位置发生了明显的年代际转变．构造的夏季风边缘最北位置指数序列和我国华北地区夏季降水相关较好,可以作为华北旱涝的一个指标．     

The strengthening East Asia summer monsoon since the early 1990s

Previous studies have documented a weakening tendency of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) since the end of the 1970s. In this study, we report that the EASM has been recovering since the early 1990s, although its strength is still less than in previous decades (averaged over the period 1965-1980). Following the recovery of the EASM, there has been a tendency in the last decade toward northward-moving rainbands and excessive rainfall in the Huaihe River valley (110°-120°E, 30°-35°N). There is evidence suggesting that the strengthening EASM since the early 1990s is linked to interdecadal change of land-sea thermal contrast.     

Global and China temperature changes associated with the inter-decadal variations of East Asian summer monsoon advances

The modern atmospheric observation and literatural historical drought-flood records were used to extract the inter-decadal signals of dry-wet modes in eastern China and reveal the possible relationship of global and China temperature changes associated with the East Asian summer monsoon advances.A climate pattern of "wet-north and dry-south" in eastern China and cool period in China and globe are associated with the strong summer monsoon that can advance further to the northernmost part in the East Asian monsoon region.On the contrary,a climate pattern of "dry-north and wet-south" in eastern China and a warm period in China and globe are associated with the weaker summer monsoon that only reaches the southern part in the region.An interdecadal oscillation with the timescale about 60 years was found dominating in both the dry-wet mode index series of the East Asian summer monsoon and the global temperature series after the secular climate states and long-term trend over inter-centennial timescales have been removed.     

ENSO对东亚夏季风和我国夏季降水的影响研究进展

回顾了最近几年我国学者在ENSO对东亚夏季风和我国夏季降水影响方面的研究成果,通过夏季风时降水的影响分析ENSO对夏季降水的作用,结合1997-1998年的ENSO现象,对前人的理论和统计结果进行了讨论,指出除了ENSO发生的时间、区域、强度外,其增长和衰减率在这一问题的研究中也值得关注。     

East Asian monsoon change for the 21st century: Results of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

Forty-two climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 3 and 5 were first evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate the present climatology of the East Asian winter (December-February) and summer (June-August) monsoons. The East Asian winter and summer monsoon changes over the 21st century were then projected using the results of 31 and 29 reliable climate models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) mid-range A1B scenario or the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) mid-low-range RCP4.5 scenario, respectively. Results showed that the East Asian winter monsoon changes little over time as a whole relative to the reference period 1980-1999. Regionally, it weakens (strengthens) north (south) of about 25°N in East Asia, which results from atmospheric circulation changes over the western North Pacific and Northeast Asia owing to the weakening and northward shift of the Aleutian Low, and from decreased north- west-southeast thermal and sea level pressure differences across Northeast Asia. In summer, monsoon strengthens slightly in East China over the 21st century as a consequence of an increased land-sea thermal contrast between the East Asian continent and the adjacent western North Pacific and South China Sea.     

Multiscale characteristics of the rainy season rainfall and interdecadal decaying of summer monsoon in North China

This paper focuses on the rainfall spectrum and its evolution of North China in rainy season with summer monsoon decaying in interdecadal time scale. The interannual component of the rainfall is the dominant part, accounting for 85% of the total variance, and has been changed significantly during the last 30 years. According to wavelet analysis its 5a periodic spectrum suddenly disappeared in the late 1960s, and its biennial oscillation gradually become weaker and weaker since 1970, accompanied by the summer monsoon decaying. Contrarily, the interdecadal component is principal in the summer monsoon over North China and is very similar to the counterpart of the rainfall. Their interdecadal parts are significantly correlated, and the correlation coefficient is nearly equal to the one of the original sequences.Besides, the dry and wet climate alternated with the monsoon abrupt changes in the 1960s and the 1970s over East Asia, apart from North China, climate drifted from a light drought to a severe drought during the past 30 years.     

The spring soil moisture and the summer rainfall in eastern China

The relation between the soil moisture in spring and the rainfall in summer in eastern China is investi- gated. Results show that the summer rainfall in eastern China is closely related to the spring soil moisture in the area from North China to the lower reaches of Yangtze River (NCYR). When spring soil moisture anomalies over NCYR are positive, the summer precipitation exhibits positive anomalies in Northeast China and the lower reaches of Yangtze River, and negative anomalies in southern China and North China. The higher soil moisture over NCYR cools land surface and reduces the land-sea tem- perature gradient, which weakens East Asian summer monsoon. The western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) is located to the south and shifts westward, resulting in more rainfall in the lower reaches of Yangtze River and less in southern China and North China.     

Identifying the northernmost summer monsoon location in East Asia

An integrated index which can be used to indicate the advance of subtropical summer monsoon in East Asia has been proposed in this paper.The index was comhined by three variables including precipitation,wind and pseudo-equivalent potential tempera- ture.The northernmost summer monsoon location(NSML)was identified by using this index annually.It was found that the NSML ex- perienced an interdecadal shift in the period 1977—1979 based on the annual index analysis from 1961 to 2001.A comparison of the NSML with other four summer monsoon indices has also been made.The result showed that the NSML could well represent the interan- nual and interdecadal variability of summer monsoon precipitation in North China(beyond 35°N),while other four indices could well indi- cate the precipitation anomalies of East Asian summer monsoon along the Yangtze River valley(around 30°N).     

Rainfall spectrum change in North China and its possible mechanism

The seasonal distribution of the rainfall in North China has changed greatly since 1977, with more rainfall in spring and less in July, August, and September (JAS). Wavelet analysis showed that the JAS rainfall underwent an abrupt spectrum change in the mid-1960s. Its interannual variability has declined while the interdecadal component has become the dominant mode, associated with the dry climate. Correlation analysis found that the JAS rainfall is negatively correlated with the departures of the 500 hPa geopotential height significantly over the northwest and southwest of China, and positively correlated with the suer monsoon over eastern China. Therefore, the interdecadal ascending of the air pressure in northwestern China and the monsoon decaying over East Asia in the past 20 years may be the two major causes of North China drought.     

2003年东亚夏季风活动的特点

利用2003年国家气象中心提供的再分析资料以及台站降水资料，诊断分析了2003我国东部地区汛期降水和东亚夏季风的活动特点，并对二者之间的联系进行讨论。结果表明：(1)2003年南海夏季风于5月第5候在南海南部建立。6月第1候全面爆发，比常年偏晚，南海夏季风强度也比常年偏弱；(2)该年夏季，副热带高压的一个显著特点是强度强、位置偏西，其中从6月下旬至7月中旬，副热带高压的位置稳定少变，其北脊线位25oN附近，且副高位置偏西，这导致了长江以南的犬部分地区高温少雨。这个阶段副热带高压西侧的南风气流将南海地区的水汽源源不断地输送到淮河流域，是淮河流域强降水过程水汽主要来源。