Interdecadal variations of the East Asian winter surface air temperature and possible causes

Using the NCEP/NCAR and JRA-25 monthly analysis data from 1979 to 2011, this paper analyzes the interdecadal variations of winter (Dec.–Feb.) mean surface air temperature (SAT) over East Asia by means of the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis method. Two dominant modes were extracted, with the leading mode basically depicting a sign consistent SAT variation and the second mode describing a meridional dipole structure between the northern and southern parts of East Asia. These two modes can explain more than 60% of the variance. The leading mode is closely related to the intensity of Siberian high and the East Asian winter monsoon. The second mode exhibits a notable interdecadal shift in the late 1990s, with a turning point around 1996/1997. Winter SAT in the northern (southern) part of East Asia tends to be cooler (warmer) since the late 1990. Winter sea level pressure (SLP) differences between 1997–2011 and 1979–1996 show negative (positive) anomalies over southern (northern) Eurasia. At 500-hPa, an anomalous blocking high occurs over northern Eurasia, while a cyclone anomaly appears over northern East Asia. In addition, the upper-level East Asian jet stream tends to shift northward and become stronger after the late 1990. Indeed, the interdecadal shift of winter SAT over East Asia is dynamical consistent with changes of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the late 1990s. The result indicates that previous autumn sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean, the Northern Indian Ocean and the western North Pacific Ocean, as well as sea ice concentration (SIC) in the northern Eurasia marginal seas and the Beaufort Sea also experienced obvious changes in the late 1990s. In particular, the interdecadal shifts of both SST in the North Atlantic Ocean and SIC in the Arctic Ocean and its marginal seas are well coherent with that of the winter SAT over East Asia. The results indicate that the interdecadal shift of East Asian winter SAT may be related to changes in the North Atlantic SST and the Arctic SIC in the late 1990s.     

Preliminary results of a new global ocean reanalysis

Using a new global ocean reanalysis of the second generation Global Ocean Data Assimilation System of the Beijing Climate Center(BCC_GODAS2.0) spanning the period 1990-2009,we firstly quantify the accuracy of BCC_GODAS2.0 in representing the temperature and salinity by comparing with OISST and SODA data.The results show that the assimilation system may effectively improve the estimations of temperature and salinity by assimilating all kinds of observations,especially in the equatorial eastern Pacific.Moreover,the root mean square errors of monthly temperature and salinity are respectively reduced by 0.53℃ and 0.28 psu,compared with the model control simulation results.Then,the applicability of this ocean reanalysis for sea surface temperature(SST) anomaly variability in the tropical Pacific is evaluated with the observational HadISST data.The NINO3 index of the new reanalysis shows a good agreement with that of HadISST,with a correlation of 93.6%.Variations in SST from BCC_GODAS2.0 are similar to those obtained from HadISST data along the equator,showing the major large zonal-scale features such as the strong magnitude of seasonal cycle.The amplitude of SST anomaly standard deviation in the equatorial eastern Pacific is also closer to observations(HadISST) than NCEP GODAS does.Besides,the first two leading empirical orthogonal function(EOF) modes of the monthly SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific region are explored.The EOF1 pattern of BCC_GODAS2.0 captures a traditional El Ni o pattern,which improves magnitudes of the positive SST anomaly in the cold tongue of the eastern Pacific.The EOF2 pattern exhibits a El Ni o Modoki pattern.Comparatively,the EOF2 pattern of BCC_GODAS2.0 extends more strongly toward the subtropics.It also overcomes the problem that negative loadings are confined in the narrow equatorial eastern Pacific.Consequently,the magnitude and spatial distribution of the leading EOF patterns of BCC_GODAS2.0 are well consistent with those of HadISST.     

January temperature anomalies over Northeast China and precursors

This paper analyzes the large-scale atmospheric circulation characteristics of anomalous cases of January temperatures that occurred in Northeast China during 1960-2008 and precursory oceanic conditions.The January monthly mean surface air temperature(SAT) anomalies and the duration of low temperature are used to define temperature anomaly cases.The anomalous cyclonic circulation over northeast Asia strengthens the northerly flow in cold Januarys,while the anomalous anticyclonic circulation weakens the northerly flow in the warm Januarys.The negative(positive) North Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) and increased(decreased) sea ice concentration in the Barents-Kara seas in the preceding month are probably linked to the cyclonic(anticyclonic) circulation pattern over northeast Asia in the cold(warm) cases.Further analyses indicate that the preceding oceanic conditions play distinct roles in the SAT anomalies over Northeast China on different time scales.Strong relationships exist between North Pacific SSTA and the SAT in Northeast China on the interannual time scale.On the other hand,the sea ice concentration is more closely associated with the interdecadal variations of SAT in Northeast China.     

基于多卫星融合数据的海平面特征分析

利用1993—2008年法国空间局的AVISO多卫星融合高度计资料,采用随机动态、EOF等方法分析全球海平面变化的长期趋势、变化幅度以及季节变化的空间分布特征.结果表明:(a)1993—2008年间太平洋海平面呈西升东降的形态,印度洋绝大部分海区海平面呈上升趋势,大西洋除湾流流域外的其他海区海平面的长期趋势以上升为主;(b)全球海平面变化存在显著的年变化和半年变化等季节信号,无论是半球平均还是洋盆平均,北半球海平面季节变化的振幅明显大于南半球,中纬度海区季节变化的振幅最大;(c)北印度洋海平面季节变化的振幅高于同纬度带的北太平洋和北大西洋;(d)太平洋、印度洋、大西洋三大洋受西边界流、赤道流系等强流影响的海域海平面变化幅度大于周围海域;(e)赤道海域各大洋东、西边界和大洋内区海平面变化不同步,可能受赤道海洋波动的影响较大;(f)厄尔尼诺年,西太平洋暖池和赤道太平洋中部海平面明显降低,赤道东太平洋海域海平面明显升高,赤道印度洋海域东、西边界的海平面变化与其相反.     

The interdecadal trend and shift of dry/wet over the central part of North China and their relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）

Based on monthly precipitation and monthly mean surface air temperature (SAT),the dry/wet trends and shift of the central part of North China and their relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) from 1951 to 2005 have been analyzed through calculating surface wetness index (SWI). The results indicate that there was a prominent drying trend and an abrupt change in the analysis period. A per-sistent warming period with less precipitation from the mid and late 1970s to present was found,and a shift process exists from the wet to the dry in the central part of North China during 1951-2005. The transition is located in the mid to late 1970s,which should be related to the shift variation of large-scale climate background. The correlation analysis has brought about a finding of significant correlativity between PDO index (PDOI) and SAT,precipitation and SWI in this region. The correlation exhibits that the positive phase of PDOI (warm PDO phase) matches warming,less precipitation and the drought period,and the negative PDOI phase corresponds to low SAT,more precipitation and the wet period. The duration of various phases is more than 25 years. The decadal variation of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific Ocean is one of the possible causes in forming the decadal dry/wet trend and shift of the central part of North China.     

全球地表温度大气遥相关路径研究

基于复杂网络方法,分析不同区域地表温度之间存在的相关关系及其时滞,建立了体现大气遥相关的全球地表温度网络,进而给出地表温度网络遥相关路径．研究表明:网络连接的空间距离在3 500和7 000 km处有1个峰值,这与大气Rossby波的1/2和1倍波长一致．地表温度网络中,影响传播的主导节点在北半球分布在东亚、向西延伸的北太平洋、美国东海岸及邻接的北大西洋地区;在南半球分布在50° S纬度带．遥相关现象在南半球比北半球更显著,典型遥相关路径与不同的环流作用有明确对应:1）北太平洋中部到墨西哥的连接反映了西风带的作用;2）北大西洋传播到非洲北部、格陵兰岛到里海的连接,均属于连接北大西洋到欧亚大陆的跨欧亚波列的一部分;3）俄罗斯喀拉海到北太平洋的连接与北大西洋涛动（NAO）密切关联;4）南半球的连接反映了大气西风带和Rossby波的影响．大气遥相关路径分析有利于深化对地表温度变化的认识,可为减缓气候全球变化提供理论基础．      

基于遥感资料和观测数据的重点海域海表盐度评估分析

【目的】通过验证Aquarius海表盐度遥感产品数据在不同大洋和波束的反演精度,为其应用提供依据。【方法】基于自沉浮式剖面探测浮标Argo(Array for real-time geostrophic oceanography)盐度观测数据评估Aquarius卫星在重点海域(太平洋、大西洋、印度洋)和不同波束对应的海表盐度产品精度。【结果】相对于波束2和波束3,波束1海表盐度与Argo观测最为接近,偏差和均方根差分别为0.003psu和0.397psu。与大西洋和印度洋相比,太平洋反演精度最高。在中纬度地区,盐度偏差较小,约为0.1psu;在南北纬20°和高纬度区域,盐度偏差较大,约为0.2psu;低海温和高风速对盐度误差也有重要贡献,低海温对应的弱亮温信号和高风速下的不准确的海面粗糙度模型是导致盐度偏差的主要因素。此外,利用Argo月平均海表盐度观测数据评估了Aquarius卫星海表盐度三级产品,均方根差在0.27~0.34psu之间,平均值为0.31psu。在二级和三级产品中,V3.0SSS_bias_adj的均方根差相比V3.0SSS均降低约0.04psu。【结论】与V2.0数据产品相比,V3.0二级产品精度有了的较大提高,三级产品无明显改善,升轨和降轨的偏差依然存在。海表温度校正能够提高盐度反演的精度,使得均方根误差下降0.04psu。     

Spatial and temporal variations of light rain events over China and the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere

Based on observed daily precipitation data, monthly gridded radiosonde upper air temperature and sea surface temperature data from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre, monthly surface air temperature from the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia and the NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data, this study investigates the spatial and temporal variations of light rain events over China and the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during 1961-2010, and discusses the relationship between the change of light rain events and atmospheric stability, sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation. The light rain events over East China display a decreasing trend of 3.0%/10 a in summer and winter half years. Over Northwest China, an increasing trend of 4.1%/10 a is found in winter half years, but there is no trend in summer half years. Using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, it is found that the first two principal components of light rain events over the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere show long time scale variations in summer and winter half years. The first EOF modes (EOF1s) for summer and winter half years both depict a long-term increase in light rain events over North America and Southern Europe as well as Northwest China (except in summer half years), and a long-term decrease over most of the Eurasia (Central Europe, Eastern Europe, North Asia and East China). The second EOF mode (EOF2) for summer half year shows that light rain events increase over North America, Southern Europe and South China, but decrease over Eurasia north of 45°N from 1961 to early 1980s, while the trends reverse from late 1980s to 2010. The second EOF mode (EOF2) for winter half years indicates that light rain events increase over North America and South and North China, but decrease over Eurasia north of 40°N from 1961 to early 1980s, while the trends reverse from late 1980s to 2009. Correlation analysis and linear regression analysis suggest that EOF1s may be related to the change in atmospheric static stability associated with global warming, and EOF2s are possibly linked to the AMO.     

On the interannual variation in spring atmospheric inter-hemispheric oscillation linked to synchronous climate in China

Based on NCEP/NCAR monthly mean reanalysis data and surface observations of Chinese stations, inter-hemispheric oscillations (IHO) of spring atmospheric mass on an interannual basis in conjunction with the linkage to the synchronous climate over China are studied. Results suggest that the spring IHO exhibits a significant seesaw pattern for air mass at bi-hemispheric mid-high latitudes, with a consistent vertical circulation structure. The EOF decomposition of zonally mean surface pressures without signals of Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) indicates that the EOF1 IHO feature is remarkable, with the corresponding time coefficients correlated with the spring IHO index (I_IHO) at 0.93; the spring IHO bears a close relation to the synchronous climate in China, showing the surface pressure, temperature and relative humidity over the country to be in good correlation with I_IHO; the spring duststorms in Qinghai, Gansu, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia have bearing on IHO. Positive-phase I_IHO promotes the strengthening of the Siberian high, during which zonal winds between 60°E and 150°W show a longitudinal teleconnection structure extending from the Arctic to Antarctica, leading to positive westerly wind anomalies over Asia, affecting the spring climate of China.     

环境相对湿度及后处理膨化温度对MBG全息图衍射效率的影响

对于环境相对湿度及后处理膨化温度对亚甲兰明胶（ＭＢＧ）全息光栅衍射效率的影响进行了实验研究,得到了合适的环境相对湿度及后处理膨化温度条件,并对结果做了讨论。     

南海海面风与海面温度耦合模态分析

为了研究南海海面风与海面温度的相互关系,利用相关分析、经验正交函数分解、奇异值分解等方法对49a的COADS资料的南海海域的海表面温度异常(SSTA)和海表面风异常(SSWA)进行分析。SSTA的EOF1解释了总方差的50.8%,该模态与整个南海SSTA同步变化,时间系数主周期为2~3a,该系数滞后5个月,与Nino3.4指数的相关系数达到0.423;SSWA的EOF1解释了总方差的25.1%,与整个南海SSWA同向变化,时间系数的主要周期为4~8a,但与Nino3.4指数的同步相关系数只有0.04,SSTA和SSWA的SVD分析结果第一模态的方差贡献为86.7%,空间分布很好地体现了SSTA和SSWA之间的正反馈机制,左右奇异向量时间系数达到0.5,且时间系数的主要周期都为4~8a,证实了南海海域海-气耦合的主模态为ENSO模态。     

气候变化背景下渤黄海海温时空特征分析

【目的】研究渤黄海海温时空变化特征及其与全球海温的关系。【方法】采用相关分析、小波分析等方法,对1985—2015年渤黄海海洋站的海温观测资料进行分析。【结果】渤海是中国内海,沿岸海温受陆地影响显著,变化幅度大,对气温响应快;黄海作为太平洋的边缘海,与外海水体交换通畅,水温变化幅度相对较小,水温变化与渤海相比具有一定的滞后性;各站海温变化周期特征不尽相同,但在2000年以后各站均有较为明显的8年周期;渤黄海海温与全球大部分海域一致,近30年呈现上升趋势,但上升速率与同纬度太平洋和大西洋相比较低,黄海海温上升速率高于渤海。【结论】渤黄海海温具有明显的月际、年际和周期变化特征,受海陆分布等因素影响渤黄海海温对气候变暖的响应低于同纬度太平洋和大西洋。     

北太平洋海气系统主要模态的年代际变化

结合北太平洋各种指数、海表温度和高度场,分析了北太平洋海气系统的突变特征及其与时间尺度分量的联系.研究结果表明:各种指数、海表温度和高度场在20世纪60年代、70年代和90年代末期均存在显著突变;海表温度60年代的突变主要分布于北太平洋北部,70年代的突变主要分布于北太平洋北部、中部和东南部,90年代突变则主要分布于北太平洋东南部和西南部;高度场突变主要分布于北太平洋北部、西北部和东南部,且突变范围从高层向低层递减.各种指数中60年代突变1～8a尺度分量的贡献较大,70年代突变是20～30a尺度分量的贡献较大,90年代的突变则是1～8a尺度和20～30a尺度分量作用相当.在3个突变时期中,海表温度和高度场的空间分布及相关性分析验证了这种联系的可能性.     

基于险度函数的无人机备件库存量风险损失度量

为了研究南海海面风与海面温度的相互关系,利用相关分析、经验正交函数分解、奇异值分解等方法对49 a 的COADS 资料的南海海域的海表面温度异常(SSTA) 和海表面风异常(SSWA) 进行分析。SSTA 的EOF1 解释了总方差的50.8%,该模态与整个南海SSTA 同步变化,时间系数主周期为2 ~3 a,该系数滞后5个月,与Nino3.4 指数的相关系数达到0. 423;SSWA 的EOF1 解释了总方差的25. 1%,与整个南海SSWA同向变化,时间系数的主要周期为4 ~8 a,但与Nino3.4 指数的同步相关系数只有0.04,SSTA 和SSWA 的SVD分析结果第一模态的方差贡献为86.7%,空间分布很好地体现了SSTA 和SSWA 之间的正反馈机制,左右奇异向量时间系数达到0.5,且时间系数的主要周期都为4 ~8 a,证实了南海海域海-气耦合的主模态为ENSO模态。     

Eastern Pacific cooling and Atlantic overturning circulation during the last deglaciation

Surface ocean conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean could hold the clue to whether millennial-scale global climate change during glacial times was initiated through tropical ocean-atmosphere feedbacks or by changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. North Atlantic cold periods during Heinrich events and millennial-scale cold events (stadials) have been linked with climatic changes in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and South America, as well as the Indian and East Asian monsoon systems, but not with tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures. Here we present a high-resolution record of sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific derived from alkenone unsaturation measurements. Our data show a temperature drop of approximately 1 degrees C, synchronous (within dating uncertainties) with the shutdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during Heinrich event 1, and a smaller temperature drop of approximately 0.5 degrees C synchronous with the smaller reduction in the overturning circulation during the Younger Dryas event. Both cold events coincide with maxima in surface ocean productivity as inferred from 230Th-normalized carbon burial fluxes, suggesting increased upwelling at the time. From the concurrence of equatorial Pacific cooling with the two North Atlantic cold periods during deglaciation, we conclude that these millennial-scale climate changes were probably driven by a reorganization of the oceans' thermohaline circulation, although possibly amplified by tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction as suggested before.     

Arctic sea ice bordering on the North Atlantic and interannual climate variations

Variations of winter Arctic sea ice bordering on the North Atlantic are closely related to climate variations in the same region. When winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is positive (negative) anomaly phase, Icelandic Low is obviously deepened and shifts northwards (southwards). Simultaneously, the Subtropical High over the North Atlantic is also intensified, and moves northwards (southwards). Those anomalies strengthen (weaken) westerly between Icelandic Low and the Subtropical High, and further result in positive (negative) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the mid-latitude of the North Atlantic, and increase (decrease) the warm water transportation from the mid-latitude to the Barents Sea, which causes positive (negative) mixed-layer water temperature anomalies in the south part of the Barents Sea. Moreover, the distribution of anomaly air temperature clearly demonstrates warming (cooling) in northern Europe and the subarctic regions (including the Barents Sea) and cooling (warming) in Baffin Bay/Davis Strait. Both of distributions of SST and air temperature anomalies directly result in sea ice decrease (increase) in the Barents/Kara Seas, and sea ice increase (decrease) in Baffin Bay/Davis Strait. :     

SOM 方法在中国东部夏季降水分型中的应用

使用自组织映射(SOM)和经验正交函数(EOF)两种方法, 对比分析中国东部地区夏季日平均和季节平均的降水分型。结果表明, SOM比EOF能够更真实地描述降水分布。SOM得到的夏季降水分型的空间结构能够很好地用850 hPa的风扰动和700 hPa的比湿扰动解释。作为事后问题, 850 hPa的高度扰动负值中心能够很好地解释对应的降水落区; 但作为预报问题, 强降水不仅由数值模式预报中的负值高度扰动决定, 还受制于水汽和温度扰动等因素。     

卫星多通道观测揭示的东北冷涡异常特征（OLR,HIRS-Tb12, ERB,VIS, SSMR和SSM/I的观测研究）

利用美国气象卫星OLR, HIRS-Tb12, ERB, VIS, SSMR和SSM/I多通道的观测资料,分析了东北冷涡异常年的全球大气环流特征及其关键地区的先兆特征;对于东北冷涡异常,发现了有一个由北半球的海冰,赤道东太平洋的海温,亚洲的季风以及东北地区地气系统辐射收支组成的影响链存在。由此讨论了影响链上的各因子对东北冷涡异常的作用。结果表明多通道卫星观测资料的综合应用在气候变化的研究和预测中有着重要的意义。     

卫星多通道观测揭示的东北冷涡异常特征

利用美国气象卫星OLR，HIRS-Tb12,ERB,VIS,SSMR和SSM/I多通道的观测资料，分析了东北冷涡异常年的全球大气环流特征及其关键地区的先兆特征；对于东北冷涡异常，发现了有一个由北半球的海冰，赤道东太平洋的海温，亚洲的季风以及东北地区地气系统辐射收支组成的影响链存在。由此讨论了影响链上的各因子对东北冷涡异常的作用。结果表明多通道卫星观测资料的综合应用在气候变化的研究和预测中有着重要的意义。     

太平洋年代际振荡与川中丘陵区气候变化关系研究

基于月降水和月平均气温资料,分析了川中丘陵区近50年降水和气温的变化特征及其与太平洋年代际振荡指数（PDOI）的关系．结果表明,川中丘陵区气候存在明显的年代际趋势和突变特征．相关分析和独立样本T检验表明,川中丘陵区夏季气温、年平均气温和秋季降水量与年PDOI均有显著的相关关系,PDO冷位相（1977年以前）对应着高温、多秋雨,而PDO暖位相（1977年以后）对应着夏季和年均温下降,秋季雨水减少．