Enhancing Emancipatory Systems Methodologies for Sustainable Development

Our interest lies in applying the principles of critical systems thinking to human activity systems in developing countries in situations where issues of natural resource sustainability constrain the feasible set of long-term strategies. The concept of sustainable development provides an expanded domain for critical systems thinking. The fundamental values underpinning sustainable development are that both intragenerational and intergenerational equity are important. As a consequence, key stakeholders are often excluded from power-sharing within current social systems. Addressing these issues requires renewed focus on emancipatory commitment and methodologies. To date, Ulrich's critical systems heuristics is the only critical systems methodology that offers practicable tools for emancipation. A case study analysis in Tigray, northern Ethiopia, provides insights in relation to the application of critical system heuristics to issues of sustainable development and highlights the need to extend the use of critical systems heuristics beyond the design and monitoring of structured interventions.     

The Use of Critical Systems Heuristics to Surface and Reconcile Users' Conflicting Visions for a Business Intelligence System

This paper describes an action research study where the business requirements analysis approach of a business intelligence development project was enriched. Critical systems heuristics, a critical systems methodology that is positioned in the critical systems thinking paradigm, was applied to surface the inherently conflicting views and visions (however unknown to them) that the various stakeholders had regarding a new business intelligence system and its underlying business process. It therefore enabled surfacing of human/cultural and organisational issues that would have negatively affected the adoption of the new system; these were successfully resolved. Accordingly, the various stakeholders reflected on their real requirements that constituted improvement, rather than mere automation, of a business process; it ultimately resulted in a successful new business intelligence system that realised business benefits.     

The Relevance of Systems Thinking in the Quest for Multifinal Social Enterprises

Human deprivation and suffering around the world are increasing despite the efforts of traditional aid-based approaches focused on alleviating poverty and improving the quality of life for marginalized communities. There is ample evidence that billions of dollars in aid money have been expended on development projects that are fundamentally unsustainable. On the other hand, social enterprises, which improve lives and livelihoods through practical market-based approaches, are growing in number. Systems Thinking can be especially helpful in navigating the complexity and chaos inherent in social ventures in developing communities. Lack of clarity in the roles, responsibilities, and returns for the various stakeholders epitomizes this chaos and is a major contributor to the failure of such projects. By employing Systems Thinking, entrepreneurs can establish accountability mechanisms, ensure equity for all stakeholders, and facilitate system sustainability. Though much research exists on both Systems Thinking and social enterprise, few sources discuss how Systems Thinking can be practically applied to conceptualize, build, and sustain social enterprises in an easy-to-understand manner. This paper synthesizes definitions of the tenets of Systems Thinking including interdependence, holism, multifinality, equifinality, differentiation, regulation, abstraction, and leverage points. The relevance of each of these tenets to social entrepreneurship is described, and further reinforced, with examples. A practical understanding of these tenets can empower entrepreneurs as they navigate chaotic environments in the quest for social enterprises that create win–win situations for all stakeholders.     

The Role of the Qualifying Function Concept in Systems Design

In this paper I explore potential benefits with using the concept qualifying function as a tool for systems design. The concept originates from the philosophy of Herman Dooyeweerd and refers to the function or character that guides and directs the internal structure of an entity or activity. This means that if the qualifying function for an entity or activity changes, its structure as a whole will change as well. Due to this, the concept and its related theory can help people to view situations from new and different perspectives and to explore the consequences of different views. It can provide a common base for the design around which accommodation more easily can be reached and from where further discussions can be continued. Finally, it has the potential to point at fundamental differences of opinion between participants and stakeholders.     

不完备信息下生态补偿中主客体的两阶段动态博弈

由于环境问题的突出和经济发展的不平衡, 对环境质量要求较高的区域(补偿方)就会对环境质量较差的区域(被补偿方)提供一定的援助, 期望被补偿方改善环境质量. 但是由于环境资源能够给其带来收益以及策略性获取更多补偿金额动机的存在, 就会导致许多的补偿项目不会取得预期的效果甚至失败. 从动态博弈的角度出发, 首先建立了完全信息下补偿方和被补偿方的静态贝叶斯博弈模型, 分析了博弈双方在完全信息下的占优策略选择; 然后假设被补偿方执行环境政策和标准的力度(分为强硬型和软弱型)为其私有信息, 建立了不完全信息下两阶段动态博弈模型, 分析了两个区域的策略选择以及不完全信息如何影响补偿大小和环境质量.     

融合专家先验知识和单调性约束的贝叶斯网络参数学习方法

针对小样本集条件下的贝叶斯网络参数学习问题,提出一种融合专家先验知识和单调性约束的贝叶斯网络参数学习方法。该方法通过将专家先验知识以正态分布形式融入单调性约束的贝叶斯网络参数学习过程,进一步提高了小样本集条件下贝叶斯网络参数学习的精度和稳定性。在小样本集条件下进行仿真实验,结果表明,与其他3种主要方法相比,所提方法平均(Kullback-Leibler, KL)散度大幅降低,运行时间高于其余3种方法。综合考虑学习精度和运行时间,所提方法优于其他3种方法。将所提方法应用于燃气轮机健康状态评估,评估结果与实际状态一致,验证了方法的有效性。     

系统生物学:面向系统的生物学研究

论文介绍了什么是系统生物学、系统生物学的简史、系统生物学的结构、内容、研究方法以及药物开发应用的前景.生物学研究正从分子生物学走向系统生物学,由精细的分解研究转向系统的整体研究.系统生物学研究整合各种生物信息的实验数据、建立数学模型,并通过实验验证、完善模型,最终预测生物的系统的行为.     

The Application of Fuzzy Cognitive Map in Soft System Methodology

Facing the issues of structural complexity, on which stakeholders have different views, has increasingly led to the use of Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) in solving managerial problems. Moreover, the weaknesses of this methodology in considering all point of views and ensuring the effectiveness of the proposed changes have provided the motivation for applying Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) in SSM. Using FCM as a modeling tool makes it possible to combine the views of different experts and form group FCM (GFCM). GFCM has the potential to be applied as a useful decision support tool in the stage of offering recommendations and changes. The methodology proposed in this article is applied to ticketing system of Raja passenger train company. This system, influenced by various policies and views, is analyzed with the recommended methodology and then the solutions for developing the system are suggested in a prioritized manner.     

Rationalization of Metaphorical Exploration: Improving the Creativity Phase of Total Systems Intervention (TSI) on the Basis of Theory and Practice

Metaphors play a significant role in the creativity phase of Total Systems Intervention (TSI). They help managers and other stakeholders to think creatively about their organizations and to highlight their organizational problems. However, in the current form of the creativity phase of TSI there are no explicit criteria in the selection of metaphors or in the disclosure and prioritization of organizational issues. This paper seeks to open a dialog with management consultants who might be interested in the consulting meta-methodology called TSI. It proposes the creativity phase of TSI to management consultants along with the theoretical improvements, as well as the context-dependent and conditional practical innovations. It emphasizes my reflections about the potential of this stage in the appreciation of organizational problems and invites new modifications. To reach this aim, the paper initially gives a brief account of the creativity phase of TSI, deals with its shortcomings, highlights its theoretical improvements and empirical findings in the PALMEK manufacturing company, Turkey, and then rationalizes this phase through proposing an appropriate method for its implementation. This method, on the whole, facilitates systematic and comprehensive analyses of problem situations, characterization of organizational issues, and disclosure and prioritization of concealed organizational problems in a structured and democratic conversational setting.     

微观瑞利散射下的大气偏振建模仿真

针对传统宏观大气偏振建模的信息单一性和表征模糊性问题,采用一种新的大气偏振建模算法。该方法依据瑞利散射理论,采用电场矢量描述光波,研究微观粒子对自然光电场矢量振动方向变化,得到散射光的偏振强度和偏振主方向。建立东北天坐标系,推导与天球坐标系间的转换过程,将单粒子瑞利散射扩展至全天域多点散射,形成大气偏振模式。仿真结果表明,新方法可以准确计算不同时刻不同地点的大气偏振分布信息,与传统方法中所获得的偏振角相比,本方法可以提供更丰富的三维方向信息,并具有良好的拓展特性,用于多因素大气偏振建模。     

Action Research for Sustainable Water Futures in Western Sydney: Reaching Beyond Traditional Stakeholder Engagement to Understand Community Stakeholder Language and Its Implications for Action

Action on issues of ecological significance often requires changes in personal behaviour and political consensus on technologies to support these changes. Unfortunately, many consultation processes only engage a narrow range of stakeholders, usually those professionally engaged or already active on a range of community issues. This paper illustrates how people who are ‘hard to reach’ or seen as ‘apathetic’ might be engaged using ‘action-conversations’ that explore the social climate for action and how scientific/technical messages can be framed in the language of the community.     

Ethical Issues and Role Duality in Insider Action Research: Challenges for Action Research Degree Programmes

Insider action research describes the process when a member of an organisation undertakes an explicit action research role in addition to the normal functional roles they hold in an organisation. Real-world work-based research is relevant and important to many full-time managers, consultants and members of organisations including those who choose to undertake higher degrees in business as part-time postgraduate students. Within these programmes a proposal for an insider action research project is often associated with important and interesting research projects that have already arisen in an organisation where the researcher works full-time, and are part of their existing role and established working relationships with key stakeholders. Ethical issues in organisationally located insider action research can differ from other forms of action research because of role duality, i.e. that the researcher holds an ongoing work role and power relationships associated with this as well as the action research role. Ethical issues can be associated with choices about alternative options, expected impacts and outcomes on the researcher, participants, organisation and stakeholders, and these are important considerations for academic supervisors, institutional review boards and human research ethics committees.     

含增长单元串并联系统可靠性评定的Bayes方法

先验分布的确定与表示是Bayes统计推断的出发点和关键点。针对含增长单元串并联系统的特点 ,提出了一种通过分解 综合法确定系统可靠性参数先验分布的方法。该方法有助于解决小样本复杂系统可靠性评定中无验前信息或验前历史信息较少时先验分布的确定问题 ,并给出实例进行说明     

The Dark Side of the Moon—Unilluminated Dimensions of Systems Practice

This paper explores some of the unilluminated or less explicit aspects of issues faced by those using systems approaches in real-world problem situations. The paper contends that discourse on systems approaches tends to be dominated by rational logical aspects of methodology, though other aspects of the intervention process, such as political dimensions of legitimacy, have become more important in the last 10–15 years. Unsurprisingly the discourse has been different for different methods. Method has been largely invisible in the hard systems area (or at least relatively little discussed), and although it has been the subject of much debate in the soft systems area, the debate has been nonetheless narrowly defined. It is narrowly defined in its relative neglect of process aspects for conducting a systems study. Since the nature of these processes (for example, the client/consultant relation) changes from hard systems to soft systems to critical systems in a way that makes social process progressively a more important dimension of each approach, this aspect has featured more in discourse on critical systems, but in general it remains a curious area of neglect. There is increasing interest in this area, and some signs that relevant theory and practice from closely related domains is being accessed to strengthen these approaches. This paper attempts to make a contribution by outlining and discussing some areas that could usefully complement existing systems approaches. The paper considers the following areas: (a) client relations, (b) analyst role, (c) language and communication, (d) group processes, (e) culture (and rationalities), (f) information gathering techniques and processes, and (g) change management or implementation. The paper draws on experiences of systems practices in the literature, interviews with systems practitioners, and writings in related areas. The paper ends by discussing some of the implications of these issues for the development of well-rounded systems approaches.     

计算实验方法与复杂系统行为分析和决策评估

本文提出计算实验方法的基本思想、概念和方法,并讨论计算仿真与计算实验的关系和异同之处,以及基于涌现的实验观察和解释方法。计算实验是计算仿真随着计算技术和分析方法的进一步发展而必须迈上的一个更高的台阶,是弥补很难甚至无法对复杂系统进行实验之不足的一种有效手段,也是分析复杂行为和评估各种决策效果的一种可行方式。     

A Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) Based Framework for Evaluating Managed Learning Environments

Managed Learning Environments (MLEs) in higher education institutions (HEIs) are relatively new to the arena of higher education, even though there are over 90% of institutions in the higher and further education sector who are currently engaged in some kind of MLE development activity (University of Brighton 2003). However, when it comes to the task of assessing the performance of an MLE there are no universally recognisable frameworks for evaluating MLEs in HEIs currently discussed within the literature. The paper advances a general systemic framework for evaluating MLEs based on Checkland’s SSM and reports on the first stages of our attempt to evaluate the MLE at Manchester Metropolitan University involving the team developing the system and the stakeholders concerned. Two of three iterations of this research have been completed and, whilst outside the scope of this paper, have found that SSM has coped with the criteria demanded of the evaluation framework within its context. After completing a stakeholder analysis, the criteria for evaluating an MLE, based on the stakeholders’ requirements, emerged. These iterations have tentatively concluded that by contextualising SSM to the evaluation requirements of an MLE in a UK HEI, the measures of performance suggested by SSM need to be adjusted. The final iteration will check this outcome.     

基于序贯贝叶斯参数学习的Lévy动态波动率模型研究

非高斯动态波动率模型及其计量是现代金融的重要研究内容.基于Levy-GARCH动态波动率模型,引入了序贯贝叶斯参数学习方法,并进行SP500指数的跳跃风险溢价估计、欧式期权定价、风险测度评估的实证研究.研究表明,相比傅里叶变换的极大似然估计,序贯贝叶斯参数学习显著改进了各模型的期权定价能力.研究还发现,带跳跃随机模型的风险度量更加准确;跳跃风险溢价明显高于扩散风险的溢价;跳跃强度越大,风险的市场价格越高.     

复杂动力系统初探

探讨传统动力系统与复杂系统之间的关系，并指出某些系统确实具有复杂系统的明显特征，首先研究切换系统，指出这种系统具有1＋1≠2的的特征，并进一步研究这种系统的一些特点，其次，考虑一类动力系统的演化模型，指出这种系统改变着自己的环境和形态，但某些性质不变，将其称为遗传性质，这是我们用严格数学理论与动力系统理论研究复杂系统的尝试。     

松嫩平原西部引种抗干旱耐盐碱作物新品种试验研究

松嫩平原西部地区降水少、蒸发量大、春旱严重,干旱盐碱是限制区域作物产量的主要因素,培育和引种抗干旱耐盐碱作物及其品种,对该地区调整种植业结构、发展粮食生产、提高农民收入意义重大。采用小区试验的方法,对引进的作物新品种“长寿香谷”进行了不同播量试验,并与当地品种进行了对比。结果表明引进作物新品种“长寿香谷”,与当地对照品种相比,株高低矮、抗倒伏能力强;分蘖多、产量调节能力大;耐盐碱、抗干旱;穗大、产量高;在特大干旱年份条件下,比对照品种增产11．1％～70．9％。适合在黑龙江省西部干旱轻沙碱地种植。图1,表1,参5。     

多机器人对抗系统仿真中的对手建模

用贝叶斯网络来解决多机器人对抗系统的对手建模问题，建立了用于一类多机器人对抗系统对手规划识别的混合贝叶斯网络。将足球机器人赛场进行分区，使用贝叶斯网络来分析和判断对手的意图为将球踢向哪个分区，实现足球机器人系统的对抗目标。建立了基于对手建模的策略仿真系统，实验结果表明了该策略仿真系统的有效性。