城市老年人口分布及其与养老服务设施的协调性研究——以长春市为例

基于人口普查数据,综合运用人口重心模型、核密度分析等多种空间分析方法,从行政区与街道两个尺度对长春市老年人口空间分布特征及其影响因素进行了分析;结合长春市养老服务设施的空间布局,探索了城市内部老年人口分布与养老服务设施配置的空间协调性.结果表明:(1)长春市不同区域老年人口空间分布存在显著差异,整体处于向心集聚阶段,由中心城区向外呈现出"U"型圈层式空间分布特征,城市中心区内存在着连续的老年人口集中分布区,且其空间范围仍在扩展;(2)长春市养老服务设施整体呈现出"中心多、外围少",城市中心区内部"东西方向多、南北方向少"的空间布局特征,不同类型养老服务设施空间分布亦存在显著差异;(3)长春市各行政区养老服务设施与老年人口分布空间协调性关系复杂,可划分为协调型、基本协调型、不协调型三类,整体来看协调性较差.     

2000-2010年广州市人口老龄化空间变动及其影响因素研究

基于广州市第五次和第六次人口普查数据,以街镇为地理单元对2000-2010年广州市人口老龄化空间变动及其影响因素进行了分析。研究表明:1广州市人口老龄化程度不断加深,空间差异减小,在空间上以圈层结构向外扩张;2人口老龄化速度以中心城区內缘最为迅速;3从空间分布趋势来看,整体上老年人口和人口老龄化的空间集聚趋势有所"弱化",人口老龄化将继续向中心城区扩散,近郊区北部作为年轻型街镇的集聚区域,其集聚作用将更加明显;4就人口老龄化空间格局的影响因素而言,人口迁移的作用相对于人口的自然增长愈发显著,经济发展水平是这一时期老年人口向中心城区內缘集中的主要因素,文化教育水平对老龄化的区域分异具有一定正向影响。     

时间序列模型在婴儿潮分析中的应用

本文利用时间序列分析线性模型中求和自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)和统计学软件SPSS,选用1947-2014年新生儿人口数据为参考数据序列,通过参数检验与残差分析验证ARIMA模型在人口预测分析上的可靠性.模型的拟合与实证分析说明时间序列分析在人口预测问题上的有效性,可对中国婴儿潮做短期预测.本文还对2015年到2030年新生儿人口数进行统计分析,预测第四次婴儿潮的到来.这将给社会计划生育、教育、交通等方面提供重要参考数据.     

中国特大城市人口空间分布与次中心识别研究——以杭州、武汉、西安和沈阳为例

多中心城市空间结构研究已经成为城市地理学的前沿热点内容,但是如何识别次级中心至今仍然没有统一的标准.基于第五次和第六次全国人口普查数据,选取我国特大城市中杭州、武汉、西安和沈阳分别作为东部、中部、西部和东北地区特大城市的代表,运用GIS探索性空间数据分析等方法,结合我国特大城市的人口时空演化特征,测度了我国特大城市人口空间结构的多中心分布特征,并提出了次中心识别标准,为探索特大城市人口的空间重组规律提供了新的思路.研究显示:(1)我国特大城市人口在保持较快增长的同时,还具有明显的"地域分异"和"圈层分化"特征;中心城区人口郊区化现象普遍存在,郊区内部人口密度差异逐步拉大.(2)人口密度在遵循圈层递减规律,其空间拓展呈现出"近郊摊大饼+远郊点状突破"和"轴向连绵扩张"两大趋势.(3)特大城市人口空间集聚总体趋势在不断增强,中心城区及相邻的部分近郊区街道共同构成了人口高密度集聚中心,远郊区则出现了集中连片的低密度人口洼地,且两类地区均呈现扩大趋势.(4)特大城市人口次中心逐步增多,特大城市空间结构呈现出多中心化且逐步增强的趋势.研究为多中心城市空间结构的识别以及城市人口空间布局优化提供了新的思路和依据.     

中国人口数量的时间序列分析

本文运用时间序列模型（ARIMA模型）对中国人口进行分析与预测,应用Eviews6．0软件对1949～2007年中国人口数据进行拟合,建立ARIMA模型,运用2008～2010年的人口数据来验证模型,并对2011年的总人口数进行了预测。     

河南省老龄人口的空间分异及其变化研究

基于河南省第五次人口普查和第六次人口普查的数据,以县域为基本地域单元,对河南省老龄人口的空间分布和变化趋势进行分析.根据老龄化系数,将河南省老龄化进程划分为:成年初期、成年后期、老龄化初期、老龄化中期和老龄化后期5个阶段.借助ArcGIS分析软件,展示河南省老龄人口的空间分异特征,并进行老龄化程度的空间自相关分析;运用SPSS软件分析影响人口老龄化的因素.结论如下:(1)河南省整体老龄化问题在逐渐加重,区域之间的差异在不断扩大;(2)老龄人口分布由2000年的核心向外递减辐射的"中心-外围"模式转变为2010年的东南高-西北低的"两极分化"模式;(3)各县域人口老龄化表现出明显的空间正相关特征,空间上呈现明显的集聚状态;(4)人口老龄化空间分布差异与人口发展状况和经济发展有一定的关联.     

山西省人口GM(1,1)模型预测

根据2001年至2009年的山西人口变化特征,选择GM(1,1)模型的指数模型并借助EXCEL、MATLAB等软件对山西省人口总量进行了数值拟合分析,并利用该模型对山西省人口总量开展预测.通过检验分析,模型的预测精度大于99.9%,并预测在今后一段时间内,山西省人口将继续保持低自然增长率,山西人口总量到2020年预计将增加到3 652.047万人.     

快速移民城市深圳人口增长的时空特征及模式

利用统计年鉴数据和第三、四、五、六次人口普查资料,综合运用数理统计分析和GIS空间分析技术,对改革开放以来尤其是1990-2010年期间深圳人口增长的时空特征和模式进行深入的探讨。得出以下结论:①作为快速增长的移民城市,深圳人口增长主要受经济因素的影响,其次还受到政治因素的影响。②深圳人口增长的波动性较大且内部差异显著,各街道人口变动幅度在持续增大,快速增长地区主要分布在中心城区外围,人口负增长地区则位于相对偏远地带。③深圳人口分布的热点区集中在中心城区,冷点区则主要分布在广大的东部地区和光明新区,人口集中度较低,分布较为分散,人口重心呈现西北向移动的趋势,人口密度空间分布由"1个高中心"演变为"1个高中心+1个外围中心"再到"1个高中心+2个外围中心"。④作为快速移民城市,深圳人口发展处于成长阶段并逐步迈向成熟阶段,人口变动模式处于绝对向心期向相对向心期发展的过渡阶段。     

有关中国人口老龄化的数学模型分析

梳理了我国从1990年到1999年的相关人口数据以及第5次人口普查的数据,借助相关中国人口统计年鉴,建立了我国人口增长的灰色系统GM（1,1）模型和Leslie动态离散控制预测模型,应用MATLAB软件分析我国当前人口状况,并且预测了未来我国人口的增长模型,了解我国未来老年人口的增长趋势.     

基于Logistic模型和数据拟合的人口预测——以邵阳市人口为例

利用两种方法（Logistic模型和数据拟合）,借助计算软件,对邵阳市户籍人口发展规模进行预测.找出全市总人口发展变化的规律,为相关部门制定人口发展规划和人口管理政策提供理论依据.     

Markedness and its Interpretation in Language Use

Language markedness is a common phenomenon in languages, and is reflected from hearing, vision and sense, i.e. the variation in the three aspects such as phonology, morphology and semantics. This paper focuses on the interpretation of markedness in language use following the three perspectives, i.e. pragmatic interpretation, psychological interpretation and cognitive interpretation, with an aim to define the function of markedness.     

Characterization of Ordovician carbonate reservoirs, southeastern Saskatchewan, Canada

The discovery of the prolific Ordovician Red River reservoirs in 1995 in southeastern Saskatchewan was the catalyst for extensive exploration activity which resulted in the discovery of more than 15 new Red River pools. The best yields of Red River production to date have been from dolomite reservoirs. Understanding the processes of dolomitization is, therefore, crucial for the prediction of the connectivity, spatial distribution and heterogeneity of dolomite reservoirs.The Red River reservoirs in the Midale area consist of 3～4 thin dolomitized zones, with a total thickness of about 20 m, which occur at the top of the Yeoman Formation. Two types of replacement dolomite were recognized in the Red River reservoir: dolomitized burrow infills and dolomitized host matrix. The spatial distribution of dolomite suggests that burrowing organisms played an important role in facilitating the fluid flow in the backfilled sediments. This resulted in penecontemporaneous dolomitization of burrow infills by normal seawater. The dolomite in the host matrix is interpreted as having occurred at shallow burial by evaporitic seawater during precipitation of Lake Almar anhydrite that immediately overlies the Yeoman Formation. However, the low δ18O values of dolomited burrow infills (-5.9‰～ -7.8‰, PDB) and matrix dolomites (-6.6‰～ -8.1‰, avg. -7.4‰ PDB) compared to the estimated values for the late Ordovician marine dolomite could be attributed to modification and alteration of dolomite at higher temperatures during deeper burial, which could also be responsible for its 87Sr/86Sr ratios (0.7084～0.7088) that are higher than suggested for the late Ordovician seawaters (0.7078～0.7080). The trace amounts of saddle dolomite cement in the Red River carbonates are probably related to "cannibalization" of earlier replacement dolomite during the chemical compaction.     

Features of Women's language

Language is a means of verbal communication. People use language to communicate with each other. In the society, no two speakers are exactly alike in the way of speaking. Some differences are due to age, gender, statue and personality. Above all, gender is one of the obvious reasons. The writer of this paper tries to describe the features of women＇s language from these perspectives： pronunciation, intonation, diction, subjects, grammar and discourse. From the discussion of the features of women＇s language, more attention should be paid to language use in social context. What＇s more, the linguistic phenomena in a speaking community can be understood more thoroughly.     

A computer generator for randomly layered structures

AcomputergeneratorforrandomlylayeredstructuresYUJia shun1,2,HEZhen hua2(1.TheInstituteofGeologicalandNuclearSciences,NewZealand;2.StateKeyLaboratoryofOilandGasReservoirGeologyandExploitation,ChengduUniversityofTechnology,China)Abstract:Analgorithmisintrod…     

低渗透非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度研究

理论推导与室内实验相结合,建立了低渗透非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度确定方法。首先借助油藏流场与电场相似的原理,推导了非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度计算公式。其次基于稳定流实验方法,建立了非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度测试方法。结果表明:低渗透非均质砂岩油藏的启动压力梯度确定遵循两个等效原则。平面非均质油藏的启动压力梯度等于各级渗透率段的启动压力梯度关于长度的加权平均;纵向非均质油藏的启动压力梯度等于各渗透率层的启动压力梯度关于渗透率与渗流面积乘积的加权平均。研究成果可用于有效指导低渗透非均质砂岩油藏的合理井距确定,促进该类油藏的高效开发。     

On Tragic Consciousness In The Works By Ernest Hemingway

As an American modern novelist who were famous in the literary world, Hemingway was not a person who always followed the trend but a sharp observer. At the same time, he was a tragedy maestro, he paid great attention on existence, fate and end-result. The dramatis personae's tragedy of his works was an extreme limit by all means tragedy on the meaning of fearless challenge that failed. The beauty of tragedy was not produced on the destruction of life, but now this kind of value was in the impact activity. They performed for the reader about the tragedy on challenging for the limit and the death.     

海南岛地体及其毗邻陆缘晚中生代—新生代古地磁研究和构造演化

本文叙述了对海南岛及其毗邻大陆边缘白垩纪到第四纪地层岩石进行古地磁研究的全部工作过程。通过分析岩石中剩余磁矢量的磁偏角及磁倾角的变化,提出海南岛白垩纪以来经历的构造演化模式如下:早期伴随顺时针旋转而向南迁移,后期伴随逆时针转动并向北运移。联系该地区及邻区的地质、地球物理资料,对海南岛上述的构造地体运动提出以下认识:北部湾内早期有一拉张作用,主要是该作用使湾内地壳显著伸长减薄,形成北部湾盆地。从而导致了海南岛的早期构造运动,而海南岛后期的构造运动则主要是受南海海底扩张的影响。海南地体运动规律的阐明对于了解北部湾油气盆地的形成演化有重要的理论和实际意义。     

An Index mechanism for multi-scale view in spatial databases

There are numerous geometric objects stored in the spatial databases. An importance function in a spatial database is that users can browse the geometric objects as a map efficiently. Thus the spatial database should display the geometric objects users concern about swiftly onto the display window. This process includes two operations:retrieve data from database and then draw them onto screen. Accordingly, to improve the efficiency, we should try to reduce time of both retrieving object and displaying them. The former can be achieved with the aid of spatial index such as R-tree, the latter require to simplify the objects. Simplification means that objects are shown with sufficient but not with unnecessary detail which depend on the scale of browse. So the major problem is how to retrieve data at different detail level efficiently. This paper introduces the implementation of a multi-scale index in the spatial database SISP (Spatial Information Shared Platform) which is generalized from R-tree. The difference between the generalization and the R-tree lies on two facets: One is that every node and geometric object in the generalization is assigned with a importance value which denote the importance of them, and every vertex in the objects are assigned with a importance value,too. The importance value can be use to decide which data should be retrieve from disk in a query. The other difference is that geometric objects in the generalization are divided into one or more sub-blocks, and vertexes are total ordered by their importance value. With the help of the generalized R-tree, one can easily retrieve data at different detail levels.Some experiments are performed on real-life data to evaluate the performance of solutions that separately use normal spatial index and multi-scale spatial index. The results show that the solution using multi-scale index in SISP is satisfying.     

《Chinese Science Bulletin》SUBJECT INDEX TO VOLUME 59(2014)

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Achieving Unusual States of Matter Under High Pressure

The elongation method,originally proposed by Imamura was further developed for many years in our group.As a method towards O(N)with high efficiency and high accuracy for any dimensional systems.This treatment designed for one-dimensional(ID)polymers is now available for three-dimensional(3D)systems,but geometry optimization is now possible only for 1D-systems.As an approach toward post-Hartree-Fock,it was also extended to