Some evidence of drying trend over northern China from 1951 to 2004

The surface wetness index, Palmer drought sererity index and the retrieval of soil moisture over China were calculated using monthly precipitation and monthly mean surface air temperature. Based on the contrast analysis of the variation of the above three indices and precipitation, the dry/wet spatio-temporal pattern of northern China in the last 54 years was revealed, and the evidence of drying trend over northern China was analyzed, especially. The results show the following four facts: (1) The drying trend is the main characteristic of the eastern part of Northwest China and the central part of North China since the 1980s and it was enhanced in the last 15 years mainly due to the precipitation decrease and the temperature increase; (2) During the last 54 years, there was only one dry/wet shift at the interdecadal scale occurring in the eastern part of Northwest China and the central part of North China in the late 1970s, which was related to 1977/1978 global abrupt change, whereas there were three shifts in Northeast China, one was in the mid 1990s and the other two were in 1965 and 1983, respectively; (3) Unlike the variation trend of other subregions of northern China, the western part of Northwest China is currently located in a relatively wetting period, which is weak-ened due to the temperature increase; (4) The extreme drought frequency is obviously increasing in the eastern part of Northwest China, the central part of North China and Northeast China since the 1980s, which is closely related to the precipitation decrease and temperature increase in these subregions.     

Decadal co-variability of the summer surface air temperature and soil moisture in China under global warming

The self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is calculated using newly updated ground observations of monthly surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation in China. The co-variabilities of PDSI and SAT are examined for summer for the period 1961-2004. The results show that there exist decadal climate co-variabilities and strong nonlinear interactions between SAT and soil moisture in many regions of China. Some of the co-variabilities can be linked to global warming. In summer,sig-nificant decadal co-variabilities from cool-wet to warm-dry conditions are found in the east region of Northwest China,North China,and Northeast China. An important finding is that in the west region of Northwest China and Southeast China,pronounced decadal co-variabilities take place from warm-dry to cool-wet conditions. Because significant warming was observed over most areas of the global land surface during the past 20-30 years,the shift to cool-wet conditions is a unique phenomenon which may deserve much scientific attention. The nonlinear interactions between SAT and soil moisture may partly account for the observed decadal co-variabilities. It is shown that anomalies of SAT will greatly affect the climatic co-variabilities,and changes of SAT may bring notable influence on the PDSI in China. These results provide observational evidence for increasing risks of decadal drought and wet-ness as anthropogenic global warming progresses.     

Changes in precipitation and extreme precipitation in a warming environment in China

This study analyses the decadal changes in winter precipitation and extreme precipitation in a warming environment in China. The results show that, together with a trend of winter warming in China, winter precipitation and extreme precipitation in the region are also increasing. In addition, concurrent with the decadal warming shift that occurred in the mid-1980s, precipitation and extreme precipitation both increased significantly. Quantitative analysis shows that precipitation and extreme precipitation increased at rates of 9.7% and 22.6% per 1℃ of surface warming in China. This rate of precipitation increase is greater than the global mean, which indicates that precipitation in China is highly sensitive to climate warming and further highlights the importance of studying regional responses to climate warming. The fact that extreme precipitation is increasing at a higher rate than precipitation implies that winter precipitation in China will increasingly be of more extreme type in the context of global warming, which could partly explain why there have recently been a number of record-breaking extreme snowfall events in China.     

Interdecadal trend turning of global terrestrial temperature and precipitation during 1951–2002

A grid-by-grid counting of interdecadal trend turning (ITT) of annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) and total precipitation at 67,359 terrestrial grids in the period 1951–2002 is presented. An analysis of the last ITTs of SAT and total precipitation in the period, in the context of both occurrence time and linear trends after the breakpoint, indicates that a warming trend has become highly significant across most of the world in the late 20th Century. Most terrestrial grids have recorded an ITT of total precipitation in either the 1970s or 1980s, and 45.7% of the terrestrial grids in the study have seen a decreasing trend in total annual precipitation after the breakpoint, with the remaining 54.3% having experienced an increasing trend. Basically, global terrestrial regions have experienced either an increasingly warm and dry climate or an increasingly warm and wet climate. An analysis of ITT of regional mean SAT and total precipitation in 22 regions shows the northern American continent has become increasingly warm and dry after the last inter-decadal breakpoint. Meanwhile, the African continent has become increasingly warm and wet, with both Europe and most of Asia having the same trend. Southern South America and the west of Australia have experienced an opposite trend in climate, becoming increasingly cold and wet.     

Climatic difference in dry and wet season under effect of the Longitudinal Range-Gorge and its influence on transboundary river runoff

Based on observed data of transboundary river runoffs in the Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region （LRGR） and those of precipitation and air temperature fields in Yunnan, climatic variability in dry and wet seasons under the impact of LRGR and its influence on transboundary river runoff are studied by means of statistical analysis and wavelet transforms. Results show that latitude variations of high correlation center for precipitation field and corresponding transboundary river runoff are not so notable due to the underlying topography of LRGR, while longitude variations are highly marked. In dry season, greater precipitation and slighter relative deviation are observed in the eastern part as compared to those in the western part of LRGR; while lower average temperature and greater standard deviation are found in the eastern part. In wet season, greater precipitation and slighter relative deviation are ob- served in the western part, while lower average temperature and similar standard deviation are found in the eastern part. Either in dry or wet season, relative deviation of eastern runoff is always greater than that of the western one. LRGR＇s barrier action is stronger for southwest monsoon but weaker for northeast one. Under the effect of LRGR, precipitation variations in the eastern and western parts are primarily found in smaller timescales, and the variations tend to be insignificant as timescales increase; whereas slighter temperature variations are observed In recent years, precipitation in wet season tended to increase, which in turn resulted in the greater runoff of transboundary rivers. While in the past decade, air temperature showed a climbing trend in both dry and wet season in the LRGR.     

Interdecadal shift in the western North Pacific Summer SST anomaly in the late 1980s

An interdecadal shift in summer (June―August) sea surface temperature (SST) variations during the period of 1968―2002 was identified in the late 1980s, which is characterized by a phase alternating from negative to positive phases of the leading mode of the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the summer monthly mean SST in the Pacific domain 100°―180°E and 0°―40°N, accounting for 30.5% of the total variance. During the period of 1968―1987, the leading mode with a mean negative phase state (mean standard deviation = ?0.586) controlled SST variability in the western North Pacific. Correspondingly, negative SST anomalies occupied the western North Pacific south of Japan and Chinese marginal seas. During the period of 1988―2002, the leading mode shifted to its strong positive polarity (mean standard deviation = 0.781), thus positive SST anomalies appeared in the western North Pacific. Accompanied by the interdecadal shift in summer mean SST, summer mean rainfall increased in southern and southeastern China during the late period, particularly in southeastern China where increase in summer mean rainfall exceeded 40 mm, at the 0.05 significance level.     

Simulation of the future change of East Asian monsoon climate using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios

In this paper, we applied the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, i.e. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios, to investigating the change of the East Asian climate in the last three decades of the 21st century with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. The global warming enlarges the land-sea thermal contrast and, hence, enhances (reduces) the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation. The precipitation from the Yangtze and Huaihe river valley to North China increases significantly. In particular, the strong rainfall increase over North China implies that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward. In addition, from the southeastern coastal area to North China, the rainfall would increase significantly in September, implying that the rainy period of the East Asian monsoon would be prolonged about one month. In July, August and September, the interannual variability of the precipitation enhances evidently over North China, meaning a risk of flooding in the future.     

Response of water budget to recent climatic changes in the source region of the Yellow River

Discharge in the source region of the Yellow River significantly declined after 1990.China Meteorological Administration(CMA) data show that precipitation in this region was low in the 1990s but returned to above normal after 2002;in recent decades there has been rapid warming of surface air,moistening and wind speed decrease.To investigate the influences of recent climatic changes on the water budget,this study simulates the surface water budget at CMA stations within and surrounding the source region during 1960-2006,using an improved land surface model.Results indicate that the spatial pattern of precipitation change is an important factor(except for precipitation amount and intensity) in determining the response of runoff to precipitation changes.Low runoff in the 1990s was consistent with precipitation amount and intensity.The recovery of precipitation after 2002 is mainly from increased precipitation in the dry area of the source region.Evaporation was mainly limited by water availability in this dry area,and thus most of the precipitation increase was evaporated.By contrast,energy availability was a more important influence on evaporation in the wet area.There was more evaporation in the wet area because of rapid warming,although precipitation amount partly decreased and partly increased,contributing to the reduction of runoff after 2002.This control on evaporation and its response,together with the modified spatial pattern of precipitation,produced a water budget unfavorable for runoff generation in the source region during recent years.     

Relationship between Arctic Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation on decadal timescale

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is one of the main modes to describe the climate variability in the North Pacific (NP)[1-5]. Recent studies showed that PDO is related to winter surface air temperature and precipitation over North America[3,6], the c…     

Will boreal winter precipitation over China increase in the future? An AGCM simulation under summer “ice-free Arctic” conditions

Frequent winter snowstorms have recently caused large economic losses and attracted wide attention.These snowstorms have raised an important scientific question.Under scenarios of future global warming,will winter precipitation in China increase significantly and produce more snow in the north? Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP 3) model projections under the Special Report on Emissions Scenario A1B scenario,we generated a possible future Arctic condition,the summer (September) "ice-free Arctic" condition.We then used corresponding monthly sea surface temperature (SST) values and a set of CO 2 concentrations to drive an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM),for simulating East Asian climate change.The experimental results show that during the boreal winter (December-January-February;DJF),global surface air temperature would increase significantly under this scenario,producing substantial warming in Arctic regions and at high latitudes in Asia and North America.The Siberian High,Aleutian Low and East Asian winter monsoon would all weaken.However,because of increased transport of water vapor to China from the north,winter precipitation would increase from south to north.In addition,the significant increase in winter temperature might cause fewer cold surges.     

太平洋年代际振荡与川中丘陵区气候变化关系研究

基于月降水和月平均气温资料,分析了川中丘陵区近50年降水和气温的变化特征及其与太平洋年代际振荡指数（PDOI）的关系．结果表明,川中丘陵区气候存在明显的年代际趋势和突变特征．相关分析和独立样本T检验表明,川中丘陵区夏季气温、年平均气温和秋季降水量与年PDOI均有显著的相关关系,PDO冷位相（1977年以前）对应着高温、多秋雨,而PDO暖位相（1977年以后）对应着夏季和年均温下降,秋季雨水减少．     

Interdecadal trend turning of global terrestrial temperature and precipitation during 1951-2002

A grid-by-grid counting of interdecadal trend turning (ITT) of annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) and total precipitation at 67,359 terrestrial grids in the period 1951-2002 is presented. An analysis of the last ITTs of SAT and total precipitation in the period, in the context of both occurrence time and linear trends after the breakpoint, indicates that a warming trend has become highly significant across most reagent of the world in the late 20th Century. Most terrestrial grids have recorded an ITT of total precipitation in either the 1970s or 1980s, and 45.7% of the terrestrial grids in the study have seen a decreasing trend in total annual precipitation after the breakpoint, with the remaining 54.3% having experienced an increasing trend. Basically, global terrestrial regions have experienced either an increasingly warm and dry climate or an increasingly warm and wet climate. An analysis of ITT of regional mean SAT and total precipitation in 22 regions shows that the Northern American continent has become increasingly warm and dry after the last interdecadal breakpoint. Meanwhile, the African continent has become increasingly warm and wet, with both Europe and most of Asia having the same trend. Southern South America and the West of Australia have experienced an opposite trend in climate, becoming increasingly cold and wet.     

Relative contribution of the anthropogenic forcing and natural variability to the interdecadal shift of climate during the late 1970s and 1990s

Global warming accelerated after the late 1970s and slowed down after the late 1990s, accompanying the significant interdecadal changes in the regional climate. We hypothesized that the interdecadal changes linearly consisted of two independent components, anthropogenic forcing and natural decadal variability, which can be represented simply by the radiative forcing effect of carbon dioxide \((\text{RF}_{\text {CO}_2})\) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), respectively. The combined effect of the \(\text{RF}_{\text {CO}_2}\) and PDO could explain the majority of the surface temperature changes during the late 1970s and 1990s, but the magnitudes of the relative contribution of the \(\text{RF}_{\text {CO}_2}\) and the PDO are inconsistent in different regions. For both the surface temperature and geopotential height, the \(\text{RF}_{\text {CO}_2}\) could induce significantly positive anomalies over almost the entire globe for these two shifts, exhibiting a larger magnitude in the mid–high latitudes and in the late 1990s shift. The PDO could induce opposite anomalies for the two interdecadal shifts due to its phase transitions (negative-positive–negative). Furthermore, for the shift in the late 1970s, both the \(\text{RF}_{\text {CO}_2}\) (53.7 %–66.7 %) and the PDO (33.3 %–46.3 %) were important in regulating the tropical geopotential height, whereas the \(\text{RF}_{\text {CO}_2}\) dominated the changes in the mid-latitudes. For the western Pacific subtropical high, the \(\text{RF}_{\text {CO}_2}\) (PDO) could explain 52.3 %–62.1 % (37.9 %–47.7 %) of the change. The negative effect of the PDO counteracted most of the \(\text{RF}_{\text {CO}_2}\) effects for the late 1990s shift.     

Reconstructed index of summer monsoon dry-wet modes in East Asia for the last millennium

Monthly precipitation datasets collected at 160 stations in China as well as the monthly winds and humidity data derived from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) were used to construct the relationship between six summer dry-wet modes in eastern China and the summer monsoon airflow northward advance in East Asia. A millennial series of the monsoon dry-wet index (MDWI) was reconstructed based on Wang??s six summer dry-wet modes in eastern China since 950 AD. A high (low) index indicates that the strong (weak) East Asian summer monsoon airflow can reach northern (southern) China and cause above (below) normal precipitation. Interdecadal periodic variations, such as the approximate 70-year oscillation, can be found in the MDWI series. In the last millennium, northern China has experienced persistent decadal wet periods and persistent decadal dry periods. At present, the MDWI is a low period on the interdecadal time scale so above-normal precipitation is observed in southern China and below-normal precipitation in northern China.     

The relationship between sea surface temperature anomaly and wind energy input in the Pacific Ocean

The relationship between sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and wind energy input in the Pacific Ocean over the period of 1949–2003 is studied by using daily-mean NOAA/NCEP wind stress and monthly mean Reynolds SST data. The results indicate the strong negative correlation between SSTA and local wind energy input to surface waves in most of the domain at low and middle latitudes. The SST is low (high) during the years with more (less) wind energy input. The correlation coefficients are high in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and the central midlatitude North Pacific at the decadal scale, and in the central tropical Pacific at the interannual scale. Vertical mixing processes in the upper ocean are closely associated with wind energy input, indicating that wind energy input may play an important role in interannual and decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean via regulating vertical mixing.     

A tree-ring-based reconstruction of the Yimin River annual runoff in the Hulun Buir region, Inner Mongolia, for the past 135 years

Based on the relationships between the regional tree-ring chronology(RC) of moisture-sensitive Pinus sylvestris var.mongolica and the monthly mean maximum temperature,annual precipitation and annual runoff,a reconstruction of the runoff of the Yimin River was performed for the period 1868-2002.The model was stable and could explain 52.2% of the variance for the calibration period of 1956-2002.During the past 135 years,21 extremely dry years and 19 extremely wet years occurred.These years represented 15.6% and 14.1% of the total study period,respectively.Six severe drought events lasting two years or more occurred in 1950-1951,1986-1987,1905-1909,1926-1928,1968-1969 and 1919-1920.Four wetter events occurred during 1954-1959,1932-1934,1939-1940 and 1990-1991.Comparisons with other tree-ring-based streamflow reconstructions or chronologies for surrounding areas supplied a high degree of confidence in our reconstruction.Power spectrum and wavelet analyses suggested that the reconstructed annual runoff variation in the Hulun Buir region and surrounding area could be associated with large-scale atmospheric-oceanic variability,such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) and El Ni o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO),and sunspot activity.     

Asian summer monsoon precipitation recorded by stalagmite oxygen isotopic composition in the western Loess Plateau during AD1875―2003 and its linkage with ocean-atmosphere system

Based on 5 high-precision ^230Th dates and 103 stable oxygen isotope ratios （51eO） obtained from the top 16 mm of a stalagmite collected from Wanxiang Cave, Wudu, Gansu, variation of monsoonal precipitation in the modern Asian Monsoon （AM） marginal zone over the past 100 years was reconstructed. Comparison of the speleothem δ^18O record with instrumental precipitation data at Wudu in the past 50 years indicates a high parallelism between the two curves, suggesting that the speleothem δ^18O is a good proxy for the AM strength and associated precipitation, controlled by ＂amount effect＂ of the precipitation. Variation of the monsoonal precipitation during the past 100 years can be divided into three stages, increasing from AD 1875 to 1900, then decreasing from AD 1901 to 1946, and increasing again thereafter. This variation is quite similar to that of the Drought/Flooding index archived from Chinese historical documents. This speleothem-derived AM record shows a close association with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） between AD 1875 and 1977, with higher monsoonal precipitation corresponding to cold PDO phase and vice versa at decadal timescale. The monsoonal precipitation variation is out of phase with the PDO after AD 1977, probably resulting from the decadal climate jump in the north Pacific occurring at around AD 1976/77. These results demonstrate a strong linkage between the AM and associated precipitation and the Pacific Ocean via ocean/atmosphere interaction. This relationship will aid to forecast future hydrological cycle for the AM monsoon region, and to improve forecasting potential of climatic model with observation data from cave.