Magnitude and timing of temperature change in the Indo-Pacific warm pool during deglaciation

Ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropical Pacific region have a strong influence on global heat and water vapour transport and thus constitute an important component of the climate system. Changes in sea surface temperatures and convection in the tropical Indo-Pacific region are thought to be responsible for the interannual to decadal climate variability observed in extra-tropical regions, but the role of the tropics in climate changes on millennial and orbital timescales is less clear. Here we analyse oxygen isotopes and Mg/Ca ratios of foraminiferal shells from the Makassar strait in the heart of the Indo-Pacific warm pool, to obtain synchronous estimates of sea surface temperatures and ice volume. We find that sea surface temperatures increased by 3.5-4.0 degrees C during the last two glacial-interglacial transitions, synchronous with the global increase in atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic warming, but the temperature increase occurred 2,000-3,000 years before the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets melted. Our observations suggest that the tropical Pacific region plays an important role in driving glacial-interglacial cycles, possibly through a system similar to how El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation regulates the poleward flux of heat and water vapour.     

Importance of rain evaporation and continental convection in the tropical water cycle

Atmospheric moisture cycling is an important aspect of the Earth's climate system, yet the processes determining atmospheric humidity are poorly understood. For example, direct evaporation of rain contributes significantly to the heat and moisture budgets of clouds, but few observations of these processes are available. Similarly, the relative contributions to atmospheric moisture over land from local evaporation and humidity from oceanic sources are uncertain. Lighter isotopes of water vapour preferentially evaporate whereas heavier isotopes preferentially condense and the isotopic composition of ocean water is known. Here we use this information combined with global measurements of the isotopic composition of tropospheric water vapour from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) aboard the Aura spacecraft, to investigate aspects of the atmospheric hydrological cycle that are not well constrained by observations of precipitation or atmospheric vapour content. Our measurements of the isotopic composition of water vapour near tropical clouds suggest that rainfall evaporation contributes significantly to lower troposphere humidity, with typically 20% and up to 50% of rainfall evaporating near convective clouds. Over the tropical continents the isotopic signature of tropospheric water vapour differs significantly from that of precipitation, suggesting that convection of vapour from both oceanic sources and evapotranspiration are the dominant moisture sources. Our measurements allow an assessment of the intensity of the present hydrological cycle and will help identify any future changes as they occur.     

Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate

Water availability on the continents is important for human health, economic activity, ecosystem function and geophysical processes. Because the saturation vapour pressure of water in air is highly sensitive to temperature, perturbations in the global water cycle are expected to accompany climate warming. Regional patterns of warming-induced changes in surface hydroclimate are complex and less certain than those in temperature, however, with both regional increases and decreases expected in precipitation and runoff. Here we show that an ensemble of 12 climate models exhibits qualitative and statistically significant skill in simulating observed regional patterns of twentieth-century multidecadal changes in streamflow. These models project 10-40% increases in runoff in eastern equatorial Africa, the La Plata basin and high-latitude North America and Eurasia, and 10-30% decreases in runoff in southern Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East and mid-latitude western North America by the year 2050. Such changes in sustainable water availability would have considerable regional-scale consequences for economies as well as ecosystems.     

Evidence for a link between global lightning activity and upper tropospheric water vapour

Tropospheric water vapour is a key element of the Earth's climate, which has direct effects as a greenhouse gas, as well as indirect effects through interaction with clouds, aerosols and tropospheric chemistry. Small changes in upper-tropospheric water vapour have a much larger impact on the greenhouse effect than small changes in water vapour in the lower atmosphere, but whether this impact is a positive or negative feedback remains uncertain. The main challenge in addressing this question is the difficulty in monitoring upper-tropospheric water vapour globally over long timescales. Here I show that upper-tropospheric water-vapour variability and global lightning activity are closely linked, suggesting that upper-tropospheric water-vapour changes can be inferred from records of global lightning activity, readily obtained from observations at a single location on the Earth's surface. This correlation reflects the fact that continental deep-convective thunderstorms transport large amounts of water vapour into the upper troposphere and thereby dominate the variations of global upper-tropospheric water vapour while producing most of the lightning on Earth. As global lightning induces Schumann resonances, an electromagnetic phenomenon in the atmosphere that can be observed easily at low cost, monitoring of these resonances might provide a convenient method for tracking upper-tropospheric water-vapour variability and hence contribute to a better understanding of the processes affecting climate change.     

全球陆地暴雨时空格局变化的自然和人文影响因素研究(1981-2010年)

采用多种统计方法厘清了自然和人文因素对1981-2010年全球陆地暴雨变化的贡献大小.在时间上,首先从33个自然因子和11个人文因子中通过逐步回归筛选出对全球陆地年际暴雨雨量和雨日有影响的ENSO、AO2个自然因子和AOD、CO22个人文因子.其次采用平稳性检验、协整性检验和Granger因果检验,结果表明筛选的4个因子能够有效解释1981-2010年全球陆地年际暴雨雨量和雨日的动态变化.最后基于多元线性回归的方差解释率发现自然和人文因子对全球陆地年际暴雨雨量和雨日的总方差解释率达52.2%和51.3%;自然因子对全球陆地年际暴雨雨量和雨日的方差解释率为32.2%和31.4%,占总方差解释率的61.7%和61.2%;人文因子则仅占总方差解释率的38.3%和38.8%.水汽因素的诊断表明,全球水汽因子不是影响全球陆地暴雨动态变化的主导因素.在空间相关上,自然因子与全球陆地暴雨的空间相关性高于人文因子.      

Observational evidence for an ocean heat pump induced by tropical cyclones

Ocean mixing affects global climate and the marine biosphere because it is linked to the ocean's ability to store and transport heat and nutrients. Observations have constrained the magnitude of upper ocean mixing associated with certain processes, but mixing rates measured directly are significantly lower than those inferred from budget analyses, suggesting that other processes may play an important role. The winds associated with tropical cyclones are known to lead to localized mixing of the upper ocean, but the hypothesis that tropical cyclones are important mixing agents at the global scale has not been tested. Here we calculate the effect of tropical cyclones on surface ocean temperatures by comparing surface temperatures before and after storm passage, and use these results to calculate the vertical mixing induced by tropical cyclone activity. Our results indicate that tropical cyclones are responsible for significant cooling and vertical mixing of the surface ocean in tropical regions. Assuming that all the heat that is mixed downwards is balanced by heat transport towards the poles, we calculate that approximately 15 per cent of peak ocean heat transport may be associated with the vertical mixing induced by tropical cyclones. Furthermore, our analyses show that the magnitude of this mixing is strongly related to sea surface temperature, indicating that future changes in tropical sea surface temperatures may have significant effects on ocean circulation and ocean heat transport that are not currently accounted for in climate models.     

Regional climate shifts caused by gradual global cooling in the Pliocene epoch

The Earth's climate has undergone a global transition over the past four million years, from warm conditions with global surface temperatures about 3 degrees C warmer than today, smaller ice sheets and higher sea levels to the current cooler conditions. Tectonic changes and their influence on ocean heat transport have been suggested as forcing factors for that transition, including the onset of significant Northern Hemisphere glaciation approximately 2.75 million years ago, but the ultimate causes for the climatic changes are still under debate. Here we compare climate records from high latitudes, subtropical regions and the tropics, indicating that the onset of large glacial/interglacial cycles did not coincide with a specific climate reorganization event at lower latitudes. The regional differences in the timing of cooling imply that global cooling was a gradual process, rather than the response to a single threshold or episodic event as previously suggested. We also find that high-latitude climate sensitivity to variations in solar heating increased gradually, culminating after cool tropical and subtropical upwelling conditions were established two million years ago. Our results suggest that mean low-latitude climate conditions can significantly influence global climate feedbacks.     

Detection of human influence on twentieth-century precipitation trends

Human influence on climate has been detected in surface air temperature, sea level pressure, free atmospheric temperature, tropopause height and ocean heat content. Human-induced changes have not, however, previously been detected in precipitation at the global scale, partly because changes in precipitation in different regions cancel each other out and thereby reduce the strength of the global average signal. Models suggest that anthropogenic forcing should have caused a small increase in global mean precipitation and a latitudinal redistribution of precipitation, increasing precipitation at high latitudes, decreasing precipitation at sub-tropical latitudes, and possibly changing the distribution of precipitation within the tropics by shifting the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Here we compare observed changes in land precipitation during the twentieth century averaged over latitudinal bands with changes simulated by fourteen climate models. We show that anthropogenic forcing has had a detectable influence on observed changes in average precipitation within latitudinal bands, and that these changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability or natural forcing. We estimate that anthropogenic forcing contributed significantly to observed increases in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, drying in the Northern Hemisphere subtropics and tropics, and moistening in the Southern Hemisphere subtropics and deep tropics. The observed changes, which are larger than estimated from model simulations, may have already had significant effects on ecosystems, agriculture and human health in regions that are sensitive to changes in precipitation, such as the Sahel.     

多孔介质墙体热湿传递实验测试研究

建筑围护结构中的热湿耦合传递规律研究对于了解其传热性能具有重要意义。本文利用大型人工环境舱搭建多层加气混凝土墙体测试实验平台,营造了符合三种典型气候的室外舱温湿度环境并随周期性变化,室内舱控制为空气调节下恒定温湿度条件,测试并记录了多层加气混凝土墙体表面及内部不同位置温湿度变化。墙内距离外表面20 mm处测点的相对湿度在夏热冬冷夏季特征气候下降低了7.88 %,在夏热冬冷冬季特征气候降低了4.11 %,在南海极端热湿特征气候下降低了5.76 %。结果表明热传递对湿传递促进的程度大于湿传递对热传递的作用,在高热、高湿的南海地区,热湿耦合作用对墙体热工性能的影响更大。     

Eocene/Oligocene ocean de-acidification linked to Antarctic glaciation by sea-level fall

One of the most dramatic perturbations to the Earth system during the past 100 million years was the rapid onset of Antarctic glaciation near the Eocene/Oligocene epoch boundary (approximately 34 million years ago). This climate transition was accompanied by a deepening of the calcite compensation depth--the ocean depth at which the rate of calcium carbonate input from surface waters equals the rate of dissolution. Changes in the global carbon cycle, rather than changes in continental configuration, have recently been proposed as the most likely root cause of Antarctic glaciation, but the mechanism linking glaciation to the deepening of calcite compensation depth remains unclear. Here we use a global biogeochemical box model to test competing hypotheses put forward to explain the Eocene/Oligocene transition. We find that, of the candidate hypotheses, only shelf to deep sea carbonate partitioning is capable of explaining the observed changes in both carbon isotope composition and calcium carbonate accumulation at the sea floor. In our simulations, glacioeustatic sea-level fall associated with the growth of Antarctic ice sheets permanently reduces global calcium carbonate accumulation on the continental shelves, leading to an increase in pelagic burial via permanent deepening of the calcite compensation depth. At the same time, fresh limestones are exposed to erosion, thus temporarily increasing global river inputs of dissolved carbonate and increasing seawater delta13C. Our work sheds new light on the mechanisms linking glaciation and ocean acidity change across arguably the most important climate transition of the Cenozoic era.     

Evidence for decoupling of atmospheric CO2 and global climate during the Phanerozoic eon

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are believed to drive climate changes from glacial to interglacial modes, although geological and astronomical mechanisms have been invoked as ultimate causes. Additionally, it is unclear whether the changes between cold and warm modes should be regarded as a global phenomenon, affecting tropical and high-latitude temperatures alike, or if they are better described as an expansion and contraction of the latitudinal climate zones, keeping equatorial temperatures approximately constant. Here we present a reconstruction of tropical sea surface temperatures throughout the Phanerozoic eon (the past approximately 550 Myr) from our database of oxygen isotopes in calcite and aragonite shells. The data indicate large oscillations of tropical sea surface temperatures in phase with the cold-warm cycles, thus favouring the idea of climate variability as a global phenomenon. But our data conflict with a temperature reconstruction using an energy balance model that is forced by reconstructed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. The results can be reconciled if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were not the principal driver of climate variability on geological timescales for at least one-third of the Phanerozoic eon, or if the reconstructed carbon dioxide concentrations are not reliable.     

近50年来浙江宁波地区高温期水热变化研究———以宁波市鄞州站为例

本文选取1961—2013年宁波鄞州气象站地面观测数据,运用趋势分析、突变分析、相关性分析等方法,开展宁波地区高温期水热变化研究.得出以下结论:1)自1961年以来,宁波地区高温期温度和降水呈缓慢上升的趋势,相对湿度出现明显下降,其中温度上升是导致该地区相对湿度下降的主要因素;2)相对湿度变化在20世纪末、21世纪初出现突变,突变后相对湿度下降更加明显,有明显向"暖干"气候转变的趋势;3)2000—2013年,高温天气下的温度与相对湿度呈现明显的负相关,温度与相对湿度的相关系数达到了历史最高值0.633.高温天气成为近10年来相对湿度明显下降的决定性因素.     

Weak response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide in IAP／LASG Climate System Model

Response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) to global warming is examined by using the climate system model developed at IAP/LASG. The evidence indicates that the gradually warming climate associated with the increased atmospheric carbon dioxide leads to a warmer and fresher sea surface water at the high latitudes of the North Atlantic Ocean, which prevents the down-welling of the surface water. The succedent reduction of the pole-toequator meridional potential density gradient finally results in the decrease of the THC in intensity. When the atmospheric carbon dioxide is doubled, the maximum value of the Atlantic THC decreases approximately by 8%. The associated poleward oceanic heat transport also becomes weaker. This kind of THC weakening centralizes mainly in the northern part of the North Atlantic basin, indicating briefly a local scale adjustment rather than a loop oscillation with the whole Atlantic “conveyor belt” decelerating.     

Precise climate monitoring using complementary satellite data sets

Observations from Earth-orbiting satellites have been a key component in monitoring climate change for the past two decades. This has become possible with the availability of air temperatures from the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) since 1979, sea surface temperatures from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) since 1982 and, most recently, measurements of atmospheric water vapour content from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) since 1987. Here we present a detailed comparison of each pair of these three time series, focusing on both interannual and decadal variations in climate. We find a strong association between sea surface temperature, lower-tropospheric air temperature and total column water-vapour content over large oceanic regions on both time scales. This lends observational support to the idea of a constant relative humidity model having a moist adiabatic lapse rate. On the decadal timescale, the combination of data sets shows a consistent warming and moistening trend of the marine atmosphere for 1987-1998.     

湿度、温度对工频电场强度的影响

利用西南地区某500 kV变电站内母线下方,不同湿度、温度条件下某点处工频电场强度的测量数据,基于误差反向传播(back propagation,BP)神经网络的基本原理,运用MatLab软件中的网络工具箱建立湿度、温度对工频电场强度影响的人工神经网络模型.选择合适的训练函数及改进的BP算法训练此模型,得到模型的误差最大值仅为0.047 5.最后设置不同的湿度、温度向量,用训练好的网络得到的预测结果表明:在温度不变的条件下工频电场随湿度的增大而增加;在湿度不变的条件下,温度对工频电场的影响规律还需进一步研究.     

North Pacific seasonality and the glaciation of North America 2.7 million years ago

In the context of gradual Cenozoic cooling, the timing of the onset of significant Northern Hemisphere glaciation 2.7 million years ago is consistent with Milankovitch's orbital theory, which posited that ice sheets grow when polar summertime insolation and temperature are low. However, the role of moisture supply in the initiation of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets has remained unclear. The subarctic Pacific Ocean represents a significant source of water vapour to boreal North America, but it has been largely overlooked in efforts to explain Northern Hemisphere glaciation. Here we present alkenone unsaturation ratios and diatom oxygen isotope ratios from a sediment core in the western subarctic Pacific Ocean, indicating that 2.7 million years ago late-summer sea surface temperatures in this ocean region rose in response to an increase in stratification. At the same time, winter sea surface temperatures cooled, winter floating ice became more abundant and global climate descended into glacial conditions. We suggest that the observed summer warming extended into the autumn, providing water vapour to northern North America, where it precipitated and accumulated as snow, and thus allowed the initiation of Northern Hemisphere glaciation.     

全球气候变化下的半干旱区相对湿度变化研究

为揭示全球气候变化下半干旱区空气相对湿度的变化规律,利用线性回归分析、多元线性相关分析以及M-K检验法对吉林省西部5个站点的1953年以来的相对湿度、气温、降水和风速资料进行了研究.结果表明:相对湿度的年变化曲线呈双峰型,相对湿度的最大值出现在8月,次大值出现在1月,最小值出现在4月,次小值出现在10月.夏、秋季的相对湿度较大,而春、冬季的相对湿度较小.近50年,年平均相对湿度及春、夏、秋、冬四季的相对湿度在波动中下降,下降趋势不显著;但是9月和10月的平均相对湿度下降显著.影响相对湿度变化的主要因子是温度和降水,风速也起一定的作用.相对湿度的变化与温度和风速变化呈负相关关系,与降水变化呈正相关关系.     

Increase in observed net carbon dioxide uptake by land and oceans during the past 50 years

One of the greatest sources of uncertainty for future climate predictions is the response of the global carbon cycle to climate change. Although approximately one-half of total CO(2) emissions is at present taken up by combined land and ocean carbon reservoirs, models predict a decline in future carbon uptake by these reservoirs, resulting in a positive carbon-climate feedback. Several recent studies suggest that rates of carbon uptake by the land and ocean have remained constant or declined in recent decades. Other work, however, has called into question the reported decline. Here we use global-scale atmospheric CO(2) measurements, CO(2) emission inventories and their full range of uncertainties to calculate changes in global CO(2) sources and sinks during the past 50 years. Our mass balance analysis shows that net global carbon uptake has increased significantly by about 0.05 billion tonnes of carbon per year and that global carbon uptake doubled, from 2.4?±?0.8 to 5.0?±?0.9 billion tonnes per year, between 1960 and 2010. Therefore, it is very unlikely that both land and ocean carbon sinks have decreased on a global scale. Since 1959, approximately 350 billion tonnes of carbon have been emitted by humans to the atmosphere, of which about 55 per cent has moved into the land and oceans. Thus, identifying the mechanisms and locations responsible for increasing global carbon uptake remains a critical challenge in constraining the modern global carbon budget and predicting future carbon-climate interactions.     

Change of precipitation intensity spectra at different spatial scales under warming conditions

The long-term change of the whole spectra of precipitation intensity in China is examined using observed daily data recorded at 477 surface stations for the period from 1961 to 2008. The results show a spatially coherent decrease of trace precipitation despite different reduction magnitudes among the regions. For measurable precipitation, significant regional and seasonal characteristics are observed. In autumn, the whole measurable precipitation decreased over Eastern China (east of 98°E). In summer and winter, a significant increase of heavy precipitation and decrease of light precipitation are detected south of Eastern China. In Western China, measurable precipitation is found to have increased in all four seasons. Composite analysis reveals a quasi-linear relationship between increasing surface temperature and precipitation on a global scale. The responses of precipitation at different intensities to the increased temperature are distinct, with a significant spectra-shifting from light to heavy precipitation. Compared with precipitation over the ocean, the amplification of heavy precipitation over land is relatively less, most likely constrained by the limited water supply. The response of regional precipitation to global warming shows greater uncertainties compared with those on the global scale, perhaps due to interference by more complex topography and land cover, as well as human activities, among other factors.     

Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity

The response of tropical cyclone activity to global warming is widely debated. It is often assumed that warmer sea surface temperatures provide a more favourable environment for the development and intensification of tropical cyclones, but cyclone genesis and intensity are also affected by the vertical thermodynamic properties of the atmosphere. Here we use climate models and observational reconstructions to explore the relationship between changes in sea surface temperature and tropical cyclone 'potential intensity'--a measure that provides an upper bound on cyclone intensity and can also reflect the likelihood of cyclone development. We find that changes in local sea surface temperature are inadequate for characterizing even the sign of changes in potential intensity, but that long-term changes in potential intensity are closely related to the regional structure of warming; regions that warm more than the tropical average are characterized by increased potential intensity, and vice versa. We use this relationship to reconstruct changes in potential intensity over the twentieth century from observational reconstructions of sea surface temperature. We find that, even though tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are currently at a historical high, Atlantic potential intensity probably peaked in the 1930s and 1950s, and recent values are near the historical average. Our results indicate that--per unit local sea surface temperature change--the response of tropical cyclone activity to natural climate variations, which tend to involve localized changes in sea surface temperature, may be larger than the response to the more uniform patterns of greenhouse-gas-induced warming.