Survival variability and population density in fish populations

To understand the processes that regulate the abundance and persistence of wild populations is a fundamental goal of ecology and a prerequisite for the management of living resources. Variable abundance data, however, make the demonstration of regulation processes challenging. A previously overlooked aspect in understanding how populations are regulated is the possibility that the pattern of variability--its strength as a function of population size--may be more than 'noise', thus revealing much about the characteristics of population regulation. Here we show that patterns in survival variability do provide evidence of regulation through density. Using a large, global compilation of marine, anadromous and freshwater fisheries data, we examine the relationship between the variability of survival and population abundance. The interannual variability in progeny survival increases at low adult abundance in an inversely density-dependent fashion. This pattern is consistent with models in which density dependence enters after the larval stage. The findings are compatible with very simple forms of density dependence: even a linear increase of juvenile mortality with adult density adequately explains the results. The model predictions explain why populations with strong regulation may experience large increases in variability at low densities. Furthermore, the inverse relationship between survival variability and the strength of density dependence has important consequences for fisheries management and recovery, and population persistence or extinction.     

The effect of aggressiveness on the population dynamics of a territorial bird

A central issue in ecology lies in identifying the importance of resources, natural enemies and behaviour in the regulation of animal populations. Much of the debate on this subject has focused on animals that show cyclic fluctuations in abundance. However, there is still disagreement about the role of extrinsic (food, parasites or predators) and intrinsic (behaviour) factors in causing cycles. Recent studies have examined the impact of natural enemies, although spatial patterns resulting from restricted dispersal or recruitment are increasingly recognized as having the potential to influence unstable population dynamics. We tested the hypothesis that population cycles in a territorial bird, red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus, are caused by delayed density-dependent changes in the aggressiveness and spacing behaviour of males. Here we show that increasing aggressiveness experimentally for a short period in autumn reduced recruitment and subsequent breeding density by 50%, and changed population trajectories from increasing to declining. Intrinsic processes can therefore have fundamental effects on population dynamics.     

High-amplitude fluctuations and alternative dynamical states of midges in Lake Myvatn

Complex dynamics are often shown by simple ecological models and have been clearly demonstrated in laboratory and natural systems. Yet many classes of theoretically possible dynamics are still poorly documented in nature. Here we study long-term time-series data of a midge, Tanytarsus gracilentus (Diptera: Chironomidae), in Lake Myvatn, Iceland. The midge undergoes density fluctuations of almost six orders of magnitude. Rather than regular cycles, however, these fluctuations have irregular periods of 4-7 years, indicating complex dynamics. We fit three consumer-resource models capable of qualitatively distinct dynamics to the data. Of these, the best-fitting model shows alternative dynamical states in the absence of environmental variability; depending on the initial midge densities, the model shows either fluctuations around a fixed point or high-amplitude cycles. This explains the observed complex population dynamics: high-amplitude but irregular fluctuations occur because stochastic variability causes the dynamics to switch between domains of attraction to the alternative states. In the model, the amplitude of fluctuations depends strongly on minute resource subsidies into the midge habitat. These resource subsidies may be sensitive to human-caused changes in the hydrology of the lake, with human impacts such as dredging leading to higher-amplitude fluctuations. Tanytarsus gracilentus is a key component of the Myvatn ecosystem, representing two-thirds of the secondary productivity of the lake and providing vital food resources to fish and to breeding bird populations. Therefore the high-amplitude, irregular fluctuations in midge densities generated by alternative dynamical states dominate much of the ecology of the lake.     

Chaos in a long-term experiment with a plankton community

Mathematical models predict that species interactions such as competition and predation can generate chaos. However, experimental demonstrations of chaos in ecology are scarce, and have been limited to simple laboratory systems with a short duration and artificial species combinations. Here, we present the first experimental demonstration of chaos in a long-term experiment with a complex food web. Our food web was isolated from the Baltic Sea, and consisted of bacteria, several phytoplankton species, herbivorous and predatory zooplankton species, and detritivores. The food web was cultured in a laboratory mesocosm, and sampled twice a week for more than 2,300 days. Despite constant external conditions, the species abundances showed striking fluctuations over several orders of magnitude. These fluctuations displayed a variety of different periodicities, which could be attributed to different species interactions in the food web. The population dynamics were characterized by positive Lyapunov exponents of similar magnitude for each species. Predictability was limited to a time horizon of 15-30 days, only slightly longer than the local weather forecast. Hence, our results demonstrate that species interactions in food webs can generate chaos. This implies that stability is not required for the persistence of complex food webs, and that the long-term prediction of species abundances can be fundamentally impossible.     

Linking climate change to lemming cycles

The population cycles of rodents at northern latitudes have puzzled people for centuries, and their impact is manifest throughout the alpine ecosystem. Climate change is known to be able to drive animal population dynamics between stable and cyclic phases, and has been suggested to cause the recent changes in cyclic dynamics of rodents and their predators. But although predator-rodent interactions are commonly argued to be the cause of the Fennoscandian rodent cycles, the role of the environment in the modulation of such dynamics is often poorly understood in natural systems. Hence, quantitative links between climate-driven processes and rodent dynamics have so far been lacking. Here we show that winter weather and snow conditions, together with density dependence in the net population growth rate, account for the observed population dynamics of the rodent community dominated by lemmings (Lemmus lemmus) in an alpine Norwegian core habitat between 1970 and 1997, and predict the observed absence of rodent peak years after 1994. These local rodent dynamics are coherent with alpine bird dynamics both locally and over all of southern Norway, consistent with the influence of large-scale fluctuations in winter conditions. The relationship between commonly available meteorological data and snow conditions indicates that changes in temperature and humidity, and thus conditions in the subnivean space, seem to markedly affect the dynamics of alpine rodents and their linked groups. The pattern of less regular rodent peaks, and corresponding changes in the overall dynamics of the alpine ecosystem, thus seems likely to prevail over a growing area under projected climate change.     

Why large-scale climate indices seem to predict ecological processes better than local weather

Large-scale climatic indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation are associated with population dynamics, variation in demographic rates and values of phenotypic traits in many species. Paradoxically, these large-scale indices can seem to be better predictors of ecological processes than local climate. Using detailed data from a population of Soay sheep, we show that high rainfall, high winds or low temperatures at any time during a 3-month period can cause mortality either immediately or lagged by a few days. Most measures of local climate used by ecologists fail to capture such complex associations between weather and ecological process, and this may help to explain why large-scale, seasonal indices of climate spanning several months can outperform local climatic factors. Furthermore, we show why an understanding of the mechanism by which climate influences population ecology is important. Through simulation we demonstrate that the timing of bad weather within a period of mortality can have an important modifying influence on intraspecific competition for food, revealing an interaction between climate and density dependence that the use of large-scale climatic indices or inappropriate local weather variables might obscure.     

食饵具有存放周期性制约的捕食者-食饵系统模型及其动态行为的数值模拟研究

基于对自然界捕食系统实际情况的分析出发。对模型进行了扩展，并建立了受时变环境周期激励、食饵具有常数存放率以及食饵具有周期存放等情况下的捕食者--食饵系统的新模型，通过模拟计算相平面轨线(迹)、时程图、极限集状态、截面、功率谱等若干系统指标，分析研究了几个新捕食模型随参数变化时表现出的动态行为以及行为所发生的质的变化．结果表明周期激励强度、食饵常数存放率的大小、食饵周期存放以及周期存放的频度对系统行为都有很大的影响，当食饵存放率为零时，系统随周期激励强度的增大经历了稳定、周期波动、准周期波动和灭绝四种状态；当周期激励强度和频度恒定时，系统随食饵常数存放率的增大经历了周期(准周期)波动、分岔后的周期(准周期)波动和灭绝等状态；而在周期激励强度和频度恒定时，食饵周期存放可能引起系统出现混沌行为；当周期存放的强度较大时，食饵存放频度的变小不利于系统的稳定．     

Single-species models for many-species food webs

Most species live in species-rich food webs; yet, for a century, most mathematical models for population dynamics have included only one or two species. We ask whether such models are relevant to the real world. Two-species population models of an interacting consumer and resource collapse to one-species dynamics when recruitment to the resource population is unrelated to resource abundance, thereby weakening the coupling between consumer and resource. We predict that, in nature, generalist consumers that feed on many species should similarly show one-species dynamics. We test this prediction using cyclic populations, in which it is easier to infer underlying mechanisms, and which are widespread in nature. Here we show that one-species cycles can be distinguished from consumer resource cycles by their periods. We then analyse a large number of time series from cyclic populations in nature and show that almost all cycling, generalist consumers examined have periods that are consistent with one-species dynamics. Thus generalist consumers indeed behave as if they were one-species populations, and a one-species model is a valid representation for generalist population dynamics in many-species food webs.     

甲烷水合物热导率分子动力学模拟及分析

采用平衡态分子动力学方法模拟分子甲烷水合物导热性能,结合声子态密度分析甲烷分子和水分子间的能量耦合过程;探究范德华相互作用对热导率温度相关性的影响。结果表明:热导率随着甲烷分子和水分子间范德华相互作用的增强而增大。相互作用的增强令甲烷分子的振动峰值向高频区域移动,使得甲烷分子与水分子间的振动耦合作用增强,VDOS匹配程度增加,进而增大了甲烷水合物的热导率。高温下的温度相关性归因于弛豫时间声子的出现导致的非弹性散射,低温下主要受到光学声子模式和低频声子的约束影响。模拟的热导率的温度依赖性与实验结果吻合较好。     

Host-parasitoid associations in patchy environments

Studies of insect host-parasitoid interactions have contributed much to the consensus that spatial patchiness is important in the regulation of natural populations. A variety of theoretical models predict that host and parasitoid populations, although unstable in the absence of environmental heterogeneity, may persist at roughly steady overall densities in a patchy environment owing to variation in levels of parasitism from patch to patch. Observed patterns of parasitism, however, have a variety of forms (with variation in attack rates among patches depending directly or indirectly on host density, or showing variation uncorrelated with host density). There is some confusion about the dynamical consequences of these different forms. Here we first show how the dynamical effects of all these forms of environmental heterogeneity can be assessed by a common criterion. This 'CV2 greater than 1 rule' states that the overall population densities will remain roughly steady from generation to generation if the coefficient of variation squared (CV2) of the density of searching parasitoids in the vicinity of each host exceeds approximately unity. By partitioning CV2 into components, we show that both direct and inverse patterns of dependence on host density, and density-independent patterns, all contribute to population regulation in the same way. Second, we show how a maximum-likelihood method can be applied to the kind of field data that are usually available (that is, percentage parasitism versus local host density) to estimate the components of CV2. This analysis indicates that heterogeneity is large enough to stabilize dynamics in 9 of 34 published studies, and that density-independent heterogeneity is the main factor in most cases.     

松突圆蚧自然种群时间序列研究

以福清市周围松林为研究点,对松突圆蚧的种群动态进行了系统观察研究.林间种群消长有4个明显的波峰,4月中旬的波峰最突出.全年4月上旬至7月上旬为松突圆蚧的高发期.利用时间序列分析方法研究了松突圆蚧自然种群序列和气候序列之间的关系.在福清地区,各个气候主要因子的时间序列不存在自相关关系,相反松突圆蚧种群动态各主要因子之间存在自相关关系.松突圆蚧1龄若虫的死亡率与旬平均温度呈极显著相关.总的虫口死亡率与旬平均温度呈显著相关.降水量和空气相对湿度对松突圆蚧的死亡率相关性不显著.性比与旬平均相对湿度呈显著相关.性比与旬平均温度呈显著相关.林间虫口密度与降水量呈极显著负相关,降水量对初孵若虫的死亡率呈极显著相关,是影响初孵若虫种群的关键因子.     

Strong effect of dispersal network structure on ecological dynamics

A central question in ecology with great importance for management, conservation and biological control is how changing connectivity affects the persistence and dynamics of interacting species. Researchers in many disciplines have used large systems of coupled oscillators to model the behaviour of a diverse array of fluctuating systems in nature. In the well-studied regime of weak coupling, synchronization is favoured by increases in coupling strength and large-scale network structures (for example 'small worlds') that produce short cuts and clustering. Here we show that, by contrast, randomizing the structure of dispersal networks in a model of predators and prey tends to favour asynchrony and prolonged transient dynamics, with resulting effects on the amplitudes of population fluctuations. Our results focus on synchronization and dynamics of clusters in models, and on timescales, more appropriate for ecology, namely smaller systems with strong interactions outside the weak-coupling regime, rather than the better-studied cases of large, weakly coupled systems. In these smaller systems, the dynamics of transients and the effects of changes in connectivity can be well understood using a set of methods including numerical reconstructions of phase dynamics, examinations of cluster formation and the consideration of important aspects of cyclic dynamics, such as amplitude.     

Dynamics of fat cell turnover in humans

Obesity is increasing in an epidemic manner in most countries and constitutes a public health problem by enhancing the risk for cardiovascular disease and metabolic disorders such as type 2 diabetes. Owing to the increase in obesity, life expectancy may start to decrease in developed countries for the first time in recent history. The factors determining fat mass in adult humans are not fully understood, but increased lipid storage in already developed fat cells (adipocytes) is thought to be most important. Here we show that adipocyte number is a major determinant for the fat mass in adults. However, the number of fat cells stays constant in adulthood in lean and obese individuals, even after marked weight loss, indicating that the number of adipocytes is set during childhood and adolescence. To establish the dynamics within the stable population of adipocytes in adults, we have measured adipocyte turnover by analysing the integration of 14C derived from nuclear bomb tests in genomic DNA. Approximately 10% of fat cells are renewed annually at all adult ages and levels of body mass index. Neither adipocyte death nor generation rate is altered in early onset obesity, suggesting a tight regulation of fat cell number in this condition during adulthood. The high turnover of adipocytes establishes a new therapeutic target for pharmacological intervention in obesity.     

太赫兹振荡器件之间同相位锁定机制的研究

本文详细研究了平面纳米耿氏振荡器的耦合特性。研究表明:把两个器件直接并联组成阵列时，由于器件间的耦合较弱，两器件无法协同工作，因而输出信号随时间无规波动；为此我们通过在器件间引入额外的表面栅，利用栅极偏压增强耦合，使得器件工作处于基波相位锁定状态，从而输出幅度稳定、工作频率约为0.37 THz的信号。通过对器件沟道内部电子浓度的进一步分布分析，我们发现器件同相位锁定机制的微观实质为两沟道内部动力学偶极畴处于同步状态。由于双器件阵列的输出信号幅值为单器件的两倍，因此这种结构设计可以提升器件的输出功率。     

Reduced mixing from the breaking of internal waves in equatorial waters

In the oceans, heat, salt and nutrients are redistributed much more easily within water masses of uniform density than across surfaces separating waters of different densities. But the magnitude and distribution of mixing across density surfaces are also important for the Earth's climate as well as the concentrations of organisms. Most of this mixing occurs where internal waves break, overturning the density stratification of the ocean and creating patches of turbulence. Predictions of the rate at which internal waves dissipate were confirmed earlier at mid-latitudes. Here we present observations of temperature and velocity fluctuations in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans between 42 degrees N and 2 degrees S to extend that result to equatorial regions. We find a strong latitude dependence of dissipation in accordance with the predictions. In our observations, dissipation rates and accompanying mixing across density surfaces near the Equator are less than 10% of those at mid-latitudes for a similar background of internal waves. Reduced mixing close to the Equator will have to be taken into account in numerical simulations of ocean dynamics--for example, in climate change experiments.     

Higher-order statistics and nonlinear processes in space plasmas

Statistics of order 2 (variance, auto and cross-correlation functions, auto and cross-power spectra) and 3 (skewness, auto and cross-bicorrelation functions, auto and cross-bispectra) are used to analyze the wave-particle interaction in space plasmas. The signals considered here are medium scale electron density irregularities and ELF/ULF electrostatic turbulence. Nonlinearities are mainly observed in the ELF range. They are independently pointed out in time series associated with fluctuations in electronic density and in time series associated with the measurement of one electric field component. Peaks in cross-bicorrelation function and in mutual information clearly show that, in well delimited frequency bands, the wave-particle interactions are nonlinear above a certain level of fluctuations. The way the energy is transferred within the frequencies of density fluctuations is indicated by a bi-spectra analysis. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China Zhao Zhengyu: born in 1952. Doctor, Associate professor     

江苏云台山山樱花种群结构及点格局分析

【目的】了解分析并掌握连云港云台山山樱花(Cerasus serrulata)天然种群的结构特征、分布格局、物种多样性及其与生态环境影响因子的关系,为优良景观树种山樱花的种质资源保护与利用提供理论依据。 【方法】以江苏省连云港市云台山省级自然保护区1 hm²固定样地山樱花为研究对象,通过探究年龄结构、绘制存活曲线、编制静态生命表、预测时间序列和点格局分析,以期对该山樱花种群有进一步的了解。 【结果】样地中乔木层短柄枹栎和山樱花的重要值最高,是群落的主要建群种,山樱花作为群落优势种之一的情况并不常见,其种群径级结构呈“扩张型”,低龄级个体数量较为丰富。静态生命表显示:山樱花植株个体平均生存能力随龄级增大而减小;存活曲线呈Deevey-Ⅱ型。根据时间序列预测的结果推断,未来2、4、6个龄级时间后山樱花种群各龄级个体数均逐渐增加,种群能自然更新。山樱花种群各年龄段的植株密度存在较大差异,整体呈随机分布或集中分布。【结论】暖温带落叶阔叶林优势种以壳斗科为主,朴树、黄连木等也是常见的优势树种,以山樱花为优势种之一的并不多见。云台山山樱花种群结构呈持续稳定的状态,自然更新能力较强,在云台山保护区地带性植被恢复与风景林构建中发挥了重要作用,应加大保护力度。同时也说明通过上述方法揭示特定种群的结构及数量特征,对特殊群落的保护和管理具有重要的理论价值与现实意义。     

Stage-structured cycles promote genetic diversity in a predator-prey system of Daphnia and algae

Competition theory predicts that population fluctuations can promote genetic diversity when combined with density-dependent selection. However, this stabilizing mechanism has rarely been tested, and was recently rejected as an explanation for maintaining diversity in natural populations of the freshwater herbivore Daphnia pulex. The primary limitation of competition theory is its failure to account for the alternative types of population cycles that are caused by size- or stage-dependent population vital rates--even though such structure both explains the fluctuating dynamics of many species and may alter the outcome of competition. Here we provide the first experimental test of whether alternative types of cycles affect natural selection in predator-prey systems. Using competing Daphnia genotypes, we show that internally generated, stage-structured cycles substantially reduce the magnitude of selection (thereby contributing to the maintenance of genetic diversity), whereas externally forced cycles show rapid competitive exclusion. The change in selection is ecologically significant, spanning the observed range in natural populations. We argue that structured cycles reduce selection through a combination of stalled juvenile development and stage-specific mortality. This potentially general fitness-equalizing mechanism may reduce the need for strong stabilizing mechanisms to explain the maintenance of genetic diversity in natural systems.     

Synchronization of animal population dynamics by large-scale climate

The hypothesis that animal population dynamics may be synchronized by climate is highly relevant in the context of climate change because it suggests that several populations might respond simultaneously to climatic trends if their dynamics are entrained by environmental correlation. The dynamics of many species throughout the Northern Hemisphere are influenced by a single large-scale climate system, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which exerts highly correlated regional effects on local weather. But efforts to attribute synchronous fluctuations of contiguous populations to large-scale climate are confounded by the synchronizing influences of dispersal or trophic interactions. Here we report that the dynamics of caribou and musk oxen on opposite coasts of Greenland show spatial synchrony among populations of both species that correlates with the NAO index. Our analysis shows that the NAO has an influence in the high degree of cross-species synchrony between pairs of caribou and musk oxen populations separated by a minimum of 1,000 km of inland ice. The vast distances, and complete physical and ecological separation of these species, rule out spatial coupling by dispersal or interaction. These results indicate that animal populations of different species may respond synchronously to global climate change over large regions.