1960-2015年河南省小麦气候生产潜力估算及种植空间优化

根据河南省1960-2015年太阳辐射、气温和降水数据,通过逐步订正法估算河南省小麦气候生产潜力,并据此提出小麦种植空间优化方案.结果表明:在全球气候变化背景下,受气温和降水双因素驱动,1960-2015年河南省小麦气候生产潜力呈W型的波动变化趋势,小麦气候生产优势潜力区在2000年开始向豫西南移动,速度逐步减缓;河南省小麦优势气候生产潜力区与现状优势种植区的重合度为64.5%,较弱潜力区与较弱种植区重合度高达81.5%,但其他类型区重合度较低;最后基于气候生产潜力变化,将小麦种植规模分为适当增加、适当减少、保持现状三种类型,引导小麦种植空间优化,对有效保障粮食安全具有重要意义.     

大连地区的气候生产潜力分析

本文对大连地区主要作物的气候生产潜力进行了估算。气候生产潜力可划分为三个层次,即光能生产潜力,光温生产潜力和气候(光、温、水)生产潜力。计算结果表明:玉米的气候生产潜力可达到657～750公斤/亩,水稻可达到1300公斤/亩左右。并以气候生产力指数反映一地的气候生产力水平和光、温、水配合程度。     

上海市近145年气候变化对气候生产力的影响

利用上海市1873-2017年逐月平均最高、平均最低气温和月降水量资料,采用Thornthwaite Memorial模型估算了上海市逐年气候生产潜力。在此基础上,利用Fisher最优分割、多元线性回归等数理统计方法分析了近145年上海市气候生产潜力的变化特征,并定量评估了气温和降水对上海市气候生产潜力的相对贡献率。结果表明:(1)过去145年上海市气候生产潜力以10.7±3.4kg/(hm~2·a)(p0.05)的速率呈显著上升趋势。(2)气候生产潜力受到降水与气温的双重影响,1873-2017年上海市降水与气温对气候生产力的贡献率分别为64.6%和35.4%,降水对气候生产潜力的变化起主导作用。(3)气温和降水对气候生产力的贡献率受气候变化显著影响,气温每升高1℃,气温贡献率增加4.95%±0.93%;降水量每增加100 mm,降水贡献率减少4.66%±1.10%.     

基于GIS的湖北省中稻生产潜力研究

以湖北1990年～2006年的气象数据和农业统计资料为基础,运用GIS和空间插值技术,采用联合国粮农组织(FA0)的农业生态区域法(AEZ),计算了湖北省中稻的光温生产潜力、气候生产潜力,分析了生产潜力的空间分布特征.湖北省中稻光温生产潜力为17 933～20 159(kg/hm2),气候生产潜力为9 361～14 363(kg/hm2),光温生产潜力开发度为31%～48%,气候生产潜力开发度为43%～85%,各地区自然资源条件和开发度差别较大.湖北省中稻生产的资源利用效率还有进一步提高的空间,可通过合理灌溉、施肥等田间管理提高粮食产量.     

烟台地区小麦、玉米生产潜力分析——兼一年二作技术体系评价

根据烟台地区光、热、水等气候资源实况,运用FAO等提供的生产潜力估算方法,认真分析了当地小麦、玉米不同栽培技术体系的生产潜力,进而对两个作物合理组配的4种一年二作技术体系作出评价:(1)晚播“独秆”小麦—套种晚熟玉米光温生产潜力最大,气候生产潜力也较高,目前宜作为高产攻关的二作技术体系;(2)中茬“中播”小麦—晚套中熟玉米气候生产潜力最高,稳产性好,宜作为当地大面积推广应用的主要二作技术体系;(3)晚播“独秆”小麦—平播中熟玉米气候生产潜力较高,水热综合满足状况良好,适合在产量水平较低、而机械化水平较高的条件下推广应用;(4)早茬“精播”小麦—早套中熟玉米气候生产潜力最低,稳产性差,应尽快用其它二作技术体系予以更替。     

烟台地区小麦,玉米生产潜力分析：兼一年二作技术体系评价

根据烟台地区光、热、水等气候资源实况,运用ＦＡＯ等提供的生产潜力估算方法,认真分析了当地小麦、玉米没栽培技术体系的生产潜力,进而对两个作物合理组配的４种一年二作技术体系作出评价：（１）晚播“独秆”小麦一套种晚熟玉米光温生产潜力最大气候和也较高,目前宜作为高产攻关的二作技术体系;（２）中茬“中播”小麦一晚套中熟玉米气候生产潜力最高, 稳产性好,宜作为当地大面积推广应用的主要二作技术体系;（３）晚播“     

豫西山区玉米的生产潜力资源研究

在GIS技术支持下,采用AEZ模型定量计算豫西山区玉米的光合、光温、气候和自然生产潜力,并结合县域尺度的玉米实际产量数据,分析各层次生产潜力资源利用效率的空间分布特征.结果表明:光合、光温生产潜力整体上呈现出由中间向四周逐渐增加的趋势,气候生产潜力和自然生产潜力整体上表现出南高北低的空间分布格局;相对应地基于县域尺度的...     

陕西黄土台塬区农用地作物生产潜力分析及预测

基于RS和GIS支持,利用潜力递减法分析了陕西黄土高原台塬区农用地作物生产潜力空间变化特征,采用气候理论潜力为目标进行作物生态潜力预测。结果表明:陕西黄土高原台塬区农用地作物生产潜力差异较大,其中,光合生产潜力由东北向西南递减,光温生产潜力由东南向西北递减,气候生产潜力表现为西南部高于东北部,土壤生产潜力则南部高于北部;1985—2010年,研究区内作物生产潜力总量均有不同程度的降低,光合生产潜力、光温生产潜力、气候生产潜力及土壤生产潜力损失量分别为16 670.19、8 579.06、3 185.58、1 147.98 t,各占其对应级别潜力总量的2.37%、2.33%、2.33%、1.92%;建设用地的扩张对研究时段内区域作物生产潜力有明显的负面影响,因建设用地扩张造成的生产潜力损失约占农用地生态潜力损失量的50%;黄土台塬区的农用地的气候理论水平增产潜力较大。     

气候变暖对中国农业影响的历史借鉴

从中国历史现象出发,论证气候变暖对中国农业经济发展的影响,并对不同气候条件下农业经济的变化情况下进行了模拟计算分析(计算中既考虑了气候变化对农业生产潜力的影响,又考虑了气候变化对农业有效生产率的影响).将计算结果与中国历史气候变化对农业生产条件和农业经济影响的历史史实进行比较,发现中国的气候温暖期农业生产条件良好,历史时期整个农业生产潜力对降水条件的变化敏感,特别是干旱、半干旱区.中国历史气候变化基本特征是单纯的气候小幅度波动对农业生产影响不大.中国气候温暖期水分条件也比现代优越.中国湿热同期的特点也是中国历史时期气温升高农业经济条件变好的根本原因.由此推测,中国农业经济系统,在全球变化条件下,对温度变化的响应是稳定的,对降水变化更为敏感,中国未来发展中的水资源问题值得注意.     

河北省农业气候生产潜力的探讨

本文探讨河北省农业的气候生产潜力,是假设作物品种、土壤的理化性状以及耕作技术都适宜的情况下,在光、温、水等气候因素的作用下所能达到的最高产量。在考虑水分对光温生产潜力限制时,引入作物供水量与需水量之比作为水分订正函数 g=(R+W—f—D)/ET,为鉴定作物水分供求关系的客观指标。其中:R 为降水量,W 为浅层地下水补给量,f 为径流量,D 为对浅层地下水补给量,ET 为作物需水量。计算了各地小麦、夏玉米、棉花等气候生产潜力。     

Variety distribution pattern and climatic potential productivity of spring maize in Northeast China under climate change

This study was based on the daily meteorological data of 101 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2000 and the 0.25°×0.25° grid data from 1951 to 2100 simulated by RegCM3 under the future A1B climatic scenario published by National Climate Center,in combination with the demand of climatic condition for maize growth in Northeast China.The trajectory of agricultural climatic resources and the effects of climate change on variety distribution and climatic potential productivity of spring maize in Northeast China under future climate change were analyzed.The main agro-climatic resource factors include:the initial date daily average temperature stably passing 10℃(≥10℃),the first frost date,the days of growing period,the ≥10℃ accumulated temperature,and the total radiation and precipitation in the growing period.The results showed that:(1) in the coming 100 years,the first date of ≥10℃ would be significantly advanced,and the first frost date would be delayed.The days of growing period would be extended,the ≥10℃ accumulated temperature and the total radiation would be significantly increased.However,no significant change was found in precipitation.(2) Due to the climate change,the early-maturing varieties will be gradually replaced by late-maturing varieties in Northeast China,and the planting boundaries of several maize varieties would be extended northward and eastward.(3) There would be a significant change in the climatic potential productivity of maize in Northeast China with the high-value gradually moving towards northeast.(4) It was an effective way to increase the climatic potential productivity of maize by appropriate adjustment of sowing date.     

Climate change impacts on crop yield,crop water productivity and food security-A review

This paper provides a comprehensive review of literature related to the assessment of climate change impacts on crop productivity using climate,water and crop yield models.The existing studies present that climate change models with higher spatial resolution can be a way forward for future climate projections.Meanwhile,stochastic projections of more than one climate model are necessary for providing insights into model uncertainties as well as to develop risk management strategies.It is projected that water availability will increase in some parts of the world,which will have its own effect on water use efficiency and water allocation.Crop production can increase if irrigated areas are expanded or irrigation is intensified,but these may increase the rate of environmental degradation.Since climate change impacts on soil water balance will lead to changes of soil evaporation and plant transpiration,consequently,the crop growth period may shorten in the future impacting on water productivity.Crop yields affected by climate change are projected to be different in various areas,in some areas crop yields will increase,and for other areas it will decrease depending on the latitude of the area and irrigation application.Existing modelling results show that an increase in precipitation will increase crop yield,and what is more,crop yield is more sensitive to the precipitation than temperature.If water availability is reduced in the future,soils of high water holding capacity will be better to reduce the impact of drought while maintaining crop yield.With the temperature increasing and precipitation fluctuations,water availability and crop production are likely to decrease in the future.If the irrigated areas are expanded,the total crop production will increase;however,food and environmental quality may degrade.     

海草光合作用研究进展

生活在潮间带和潮下带海水中的单子叶植物海草,在生理生态方面对海洋沉水环境形成了一系列的适应,其光合作用受到光照、温度、无机碳和盐度等环境因子的影响,其中光照和无机碳常常成为限制因子。为了适应低无机碳的海洋环境,海草具有利用HCO-3能力,并在光合代谢上形成一定的适应性。全球气候变化与人类活动可以通过改变光照、温度等环境因子进而影响到海草床的演化。     

Climate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity

Contributing roughly half of the biosphere's net primary production (NPP), photosynthesis by oceanic phytoplankton is a vital link in the cycling of carbon between living and inorganic stocks. Each day, more than a hundred million tons of carbon in the form of CO2 are fixed into organic material by these ubiquitous, microscopic plants of the upper ocean, and each day a similar amount of organic carbon is transferred into marine ecosystems by sinking and grazing. The distribution of phytoplankton biomass and NPP is defined by the availability of light and nutrients (nitrogen, phosphate, iron). These growth-limiting factors are in turn regulated by physical processes of ocean circulation, mixed-layer dynamics, upwelling, atmospheric dust deposition, and the solar cycle. Satellite measurements of ocean colour provide a means of quantifying ocean productivity on a global scale and linking its variability to environmental factors. Here we describe global ocean NPP changes detected from space over the past decade. The period is dominated by an initial increase in NPP of 1,930 teragrams of carbon a year (Tg C yr(-1)), followed by a prolonged decrease averaging 190 Tg C yr(-1). These trends are driven by changes occurring in the expansive stratified low-latitude oceans and are tightly coupled to coincident climate variability. This link between the physical environment and ocean biology functions through changes in upper-ocean temperature and stratification, which influence the availability of nutrients for phytoplankton growth. The observed reductions in ocean productivity during the recent post-1999 warming period provide insight on how future climate change can alter marine food webs.     

气候变化对动物健康养殖和生产力的影响

简述了气候变化特点与动物的体热调节,介绍了气象因素对动物健康养殖和生产力的影响,并提出了相应的对策。     

河南省豫南地区气候生产潜力的分析

应用Lieth模型,计算信阳市作物的气候生产潜力,分析温度、降水量的各月及年间变化对作物生产的影响,探讨气候生产潜力与气温及降水量的关系,分析一些特殊气候情况出现的问题,并讨论如何充分利用气候资源,提高生产效率,增加作物产量的措施。     

Climate change decreases aquatic ecosystem productivity of Lake Tanganyika,Africa

Although the effects of climate warming on the chemical and physical properties of lakes have been documented, biotic and ecosystem-scale responses to climate change have been only estimated or predicted by manipulations and models. Here we present evidence that climate warming is diminishing productivity in Lake Tanganyika, East Africa. This lake has historically supported a highly productive pelagic fishery that currently provides 25-40% of the animal protein supply for the populations of the surrounding countries. In parallel with regional warming patterns since the beginning of the twentieth century, a rise in surface-water temperature has increased the stability of the water column. A regional decrease in wind velocity has contributed to reduced mixing, decreasing deep-water nutrient upwelling and entrainment into surface waters. Carbon isotope records in sediment cores suggest that primary productivity may have decreased by about 20%, implying a roughly 30% decrease in fish yields. Our study provides evidence that the impact of regional effects of global climate change on aquatic ecosystem functions and services can be larger than that of local anthropogenic activity or overfishing.