When and how to use scenario planning: A heuristic approach with illustration

This paper offers a step-by-step analysis of a heuristic approach to scenario planning, taking a managerial perspective. The scenario method is contrasted in general with more traditional planning techniques, which tend to perform less well when faced with high uncertainty and complexity. An actual case involving a manufacturing company is used to illustrate the main steps of the proposed heuristic. Its essence is to identify relevant trends and uncertainties, and blend them into scenarios that are internally consistent. In addition, the scenarios should bound the range of plausible uncertainties and challenge managerial thinking. Links to decision making are examined next, including administrative policies as well as integrative techniques. At the strategic level, a key-success-factor matrix is proposed for integrating scenarios, competitor analysis and strategic vision. At the operational level, Monte Carlo simulation is suggested and illustrated as one useful technique for combining scenario thinking with formal project evaluation (after appropriate translations). The paper concludes with a general discussion of scenario planning, to place it in a broader perspective.     

Scenario planning: An investigation of the construct and its measurement

Scenario‐planning academicians and practitioners have been observing for more than three decades the importance of this method in dealing with environmental uncertainty. However, there has been no valid scale that may help organizational leaders to act in practice. Our review of prior studies identifies some problems related to conceptualization, reliability, and validity of this construct. We address these concerns by developing and validating a measure of scenario planning based on Churchill's paradigm (Journal of Marketing Research, 1979, 16, 64–73). Our data analysis follows from a sample of 133 managers operating in the healthcare field in France. To validate our scale, we used three approaches: first, an exploratory factor analysis; second, an examination of psychometric proprieties of all dimensions; and third, a confirmatory factor analysis. The results of this study indicate that scenario planning is a multidimensional construct composed of three dimensions: information acquisition, knowledge dissemination, and scenario development and strategic choices.     

Thinking about the future: A cognitive perspective

The promises and challenges of a cognitive approach to strategic planning and subjective forecasting are examined. Strategic thinking is viewed as comprising three components: (1) knowledge base, (2) problem representation, and (3) inference processes linking the first two. Analysis of these components, it is argued, can be an important aid to understanding and guiding managerial problem solving. We review several techniques for modeling strategic thinking and planning, including network representations, production systems, causal maps, and analyses of argumentation. We consider the strengths and weaknesses of different cognitive analysis techniques and discuss how they might be implemented. Much more experience and refinement will be needed to produce well-specified procedures for cognitive analysis of planning. We conclude, however, that even at the current stage of development, significant benefits can accrue from a cognitive approach to strategic planning.     

Inferential processes in the construction of scenarios

The process of scenario construction is not yet well understood. Procedures appeal to the ‘disciplined intuition’ of experts. From a psychological perspective, however, generating scenarios represents a most difficult cognitive task. Two cognitive functions involved in this task are discussed: forward inferences and backward inferences. Whereas forward inferences explore the implications of given options and help to identify potential consequences, backward inferences explore the implications of given goals and help identify potential options. The first process leads to an exploratory scenario, the second to an anticipatory scenario. It is argued that the two approaches, applied to the same problem, result in different scenarios, i.e. scenarios that differ in their elements, their structures, their ranges and their ‘holes’. A bi-directional construction method is suggested that balances the drawbacks implied in using one cognitive strategy only (e.g. forward inference) by using complementarily the other strategy (e.g. backward inference). In contrast to other methods proposed in the literature, this method is theoretically derived and can be tested empirically.     

Out‐of‐sample equity premium prediction: A scenario analysis approach

We propose two methods of equity premium prediction with single and multiple predictors respectively and evaluate their out‐of‐sample performance using US stock data with 15 popular predictors for equity premium prediction. The first method defines three scenarios in terms of the expected returns under the scenarios and assumes a Markov chain governing the occurrence of the scenarios over time. It employs predictive quantile regressions of excess return on a predictor for three quantiles to estimate the occurrence of the scenarios over an in‐sample period and the transition probabilities of the Markov chain, predicts the expected returns under the scenarios, and generates an equity premium forecast by combining the predicted expected returns under three scenarios with the estimated transition probabilities. The second method generates an equity premium forecast by combining the individual forecasts from the first method across all predictors. For most of predictors, the first method outperforms the benchmark method of historical average and the traditional predictive linear regression with a single predictor both statistically and economically, and the second method consistently performs better than several competing methods used in the literature. The performance of our methods is further examined under different scenarios and economic conditions, and is robust for two different out‐of‐sample periods and specifications of the scenarios.     

Environmental impacts of household appliances in Europe and scenarios for their impact reduction

Assessing the environmental impact due to consumption of goods and services is a pivotal step towards achieving the sustainable development goal related to responsible production and consumption (i.e. SDG 12). Household appliances plays a crucial role and should be assessed in a systemic manner, namely considering all life cycle stages, technological efficiency, and affluence aspects. The present study assess the impact of such household appliances used in Europe, and tests scenarios of potential impact reduction at various scales. Life cycle assessment is applied to 14 different household appliances (ranging from dishwashers to television devices) selected to build a set of representative products, based on their economic value and diffusion in households in Europe. Related impacts are calculated with the Environmental Footprint method for calculating a Consumer Footprint “appliances” for the baseline year 2010. A number of scenarios encompassing eco-solutions on a technical level, changes in consumption pattern, behavioral changes, as well as the combination of all these aspects are run to estimate the Consumer Footprint related to household appliances for the year 2030, compared against this baseline scenario. The baseline Consumer Footprint is confirming the importance of the use phase in leading the impacts in almost all impact categories. Testing different scenarios concludes that there is a reduction of the impact for most of the categories (with up to 67% for the ozone depletion potential, and still around 35% for the global warming potential), while two of the here examined impact categories (i.e. land-use and mineral resource depletion) show an overall potential that is even negative – i.e. the results of all scenarios are higher than the ones of the 2010 baseline scenario. The increase in purchase and use of such appliances may offset energy efficiency benefits in some of the examined categories. Hence, the assessment of sustainability of appliances consumption should always include several scales, from the efficiency of the products (micro scale), to the improvement of the energy mix (meso scale), up to accounting for socio-economic drivers and patterns of consumption affecting the overall appliances stock (macro scale).     

Environmental impacts of household appliances in Europe and scenarios for their impact reduction

Assessing the environmental impact due to consumption of goods and services is a pivotal step towards achieving the sustainable development goal related to responsible production and consumption (i.e. SDG 12). Household appliances plays a crucial role and should be assessed in a systemic manner, namely considering all life cycle stages, technological efficiency, and affluence aspects. The present study assess the impact of such household appliances used in Europe, and tests scenarios of potential impact reduction at various scales. Life cycle assessment is applied to 14 different household appliances (ranging from dishwashers to television devices) selected to build a set of representative products, based on their economic value and diffusion in households in Europe. Related impacts are calculated with the Environmental Footprint method for calculating a Consumer Footprint “appliances” for the baseline year 2010. A number of scenarios encompassing eco-solutions on a technical level, changes in consumption pattern, behavioral changes, as well as the combination of all these aspects are run to estimate the Consumer Footprint related to household appliances for the year 2030, compared against this baseline scenario. The baseline Consumer Footprint is confirming the importance of the use phase in leading the impacts in almost all impact categories. Testing different scenarios concludes that there is a reduction of the impact for most of the categories (with up to 67% for the ozone depletion potential, and still around 35% for the global warming potential), while two of the here examined impact categories (i.e. land-use and mineral resource depletion) show an overall potential that is even negative – i.e. the results of all scenarios are higher than the ones of the 2010 baseline scenario. The increase in purchase and use of such appliances may offset energy efficiency benefits in some of the examined categories. Hence, the assessment of sustainability of appliances consumption should always include several scales, from the efficiency of the products (micro scale), to the improvement of the energy mix (meso scale), up to accounting for socio-economic drivers and patterns of consumption affecting the overall appliances stock (macro scale).     

Environmental impacts of household appliances in Europe and scenarios for their impact reduction

Assessing the environmental impact due to consumption of goods and services is a pivotal step towards achieving the sustainable development goal related to responsible production and consumption (i.e. SDG 12). Household appliances plays a crucial role and should be assessed in a systemic manner, namely considering all life cycle stages, technological efficiency, and affluence aspects. The present study assess the impact of such household appliances used in Europe, and tests scenarios of potential impact reduction at various scales. Life cycle assessment is applied to 14 different household appliances (ranging from dishwashers to television devices) selected to build a set of representative products, based on their economic value and diffusion in households in Europe. Related impacts are calculated with the Environmental Footprint method for calculating a Consumer Footprint “appliances” for the baseline year 2010. A number of scenarios encompassing eco-solutions on a technical level, changes in consumption pattern, behavioral changes, as well as the combination of all these aspects are run to estimate the Consumer Footprint related to household appliances for the year 2030, compared against this baseline scenario. The baseline Consumer Footprint is confirming the importance of the use phase in leading the impacts in almost all impact categories. Testing different scenarios concludes that there is a reduction of the impact for most of the categories (with up to 67% for the ozone depletion potential, and still around 35% for the global warming potential), while two of the here examined impact categories (i.e. land-use and mineral resource depletion) show an overall potential that is even negative – i.e. the results of all scenarios are higher than the ones of the 2010 baseline scenario. The increase in purchase and use of such appliances may offset energy efficiency benefits in some of the examined categories. Hence, the assessment of sustainability of appliances consumption should always include several scales, from the efficiency of the products (micro scale), to the improvement of the energy mix (meso scale), up to accounting for socio-economic drivers and patterns of consumption affecting the overall appliances stock (macro scale).     

Strategic planning and forecasting

This paper examines the role of forecasting in strategic planning through the use of analytical portfolio models and corporate simulation models. It also outlines a conceptual framework on which it may be possible to develop a theory of strategic planning—namely, microeconomic theory. It, finally, describes a practical application of this theoretical framework, known as the strategy matrix. It concludes by noting the importance of forecasting as an input to the strategy matrix.     

A re‐examination of the excess smoothness puzzle when consumers estimate the income process

The excess smoothness puzzle is explored using a simple version of the permanent income hypothesis. The new feature is that consumers do not know the observed data‐generating process for income. Instead they estimate the income process every period using the past income data and update their income forecasts as new data arrive. Two scenarios are examined: first, where the income has a linear deterministic trend and second, where the income has a constant trend. There is a misspecification bias in the estimate of the marginal propensity to consume (MPC). This bias is of second‐order importance in the first scenario while it is of first‐order importance in the second. We conclude that the second scenario, which may be relevant for less developed countries, may offer a potential solution to the excess smoothness puzzle. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Energy demand forecasts with investment constraints

The energy sector in India claims 30% of the available investments. Moreover, oil import bills have the largest share among the total import bills. Thus, macro economic development and energy sector are highly interdependent. Where energy demand is forecasted without these linkages one cannot be sure if investments and imports required for energy sector will be available. The SImulation of MAcroeconomic scenarios (SIMA) model generates macroeconomically consistent energy scenarios from two interlinked submodels i.e. economic and energy submodels. The energy sector is a part of the non-agricultural sector but it is linked to both the agricultural and the non-agricultural sectors. These three sectors compete with each other for the available capital. In a two-step procedure, various energy economy relations are econometrically estimated and then these are solved simultaneously by feeding in the exogenous parameters (population, oil prices, etc.). The scenarios created correspond to 1991–2010. They are the Dynamics As Usual and the High Oil Price scenarios with capital required for phasing in the electricity sector. Energy-related emission levels for pollutants such as CO₂, NO_x and SO₂ emissions are also calculated for each scenario.     

基于SWOT模型的旅游战略AHP分析——以乌镇旅游发展为例

SWOT模型是一种有效的战略分析方法，而这种分析方法通常仅限于描述性解释，而缺少有效的定量化约束。现以乌镇旅游发展为例尝试采用AHP方法对SWOT模型中的优势、劣势、机会、威胁进行较全面的分析、评估，为制定更有效的战略措施服务；并对战略措施进行评价、确定权重．以此制定不同时期的发展重点，从而形成更加完善的SWOT模型体系，最终更科学的指导乌镇旅游业的发展。     

A linear forecasting model and its application to economic data

We present a forecasting model based on fuzzy pattern recognition and weighted linear regression. In this model fuzzy pattern recognition is used to find homogeneous fuzzy classes in a heterogeneous data set. It is assumed that the classes represent typical situations. For each class a weighted regression analysis is conducted. The forecasting results obtained by the class regression analysis are aggregated to obtain the ‘overall’ estimation of the regression model. We apply the model to the forecasting of economic data of the USA. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A rapid HPLC method for determination of adenylate energy charge

A simple procedure is described for separation and analysis of adenine nucleotides in tissue extracts, utilizing anion exchange HPLC. Determination of AMP, ADP, and ATP takes 10 min per sample.     

The role of forecasting in corporate strategy: The xerox experience

This paper presents the system of analysis used by the Xerox Corporation to relate the external environment to company decisions. The system is sophisticated and elaborate, comes to grips with such issues as product forecasting, market monitoring, activity monitoring, materials and labour cost analysis, and product price analysis. In addition, the system examines the longer-term issues associated with corporate strategy, with the more recent initiatives directed toward the strategic focus The Xerox case illustrates very well how externally provided forecasts of economic environments, both at home and abroad, can be used as inputs to a variety of econometric products to serve the individual corporation. The challenge in this work is to build the bridges from the external forces to the critical company decisions. That is a task which requires sophisticated tools and skilled professionals to accomplish. This case study shows what can be done.     

An intelligent business forecaster for strategic business planning

In this paper an intelligent business forecaster for strategic business planning is presented. The forecaster is basically a multi‐layered fuzzy rule‐based neural network which integrates the basic elements and functions of a traditional fuzzy logic inference into a neural network structure. It has also been shown to be superior to two commercially available business forecasters in terms of learning speed and forecasting accuracy. This paper presents the architectural design of the intelligent business forecaster and the results of a study that has been carried out to compare its performance with that of the others. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

月面巡视器遥操作中的任务规划技术研究

任务规划技术是嫦娥三号任务中月面巡视器遥操作中的一项关键技术.本文首先分析了各种月面环境因素对巡视器月面工作过程的影响机制,综合考虑月面地形因素、太阳能量、光照阴影以及对地通信条件等,建立了面向任务规划的综合月面环境.在该环境模型基础上,提出了一种月面巡视器遥操作中的任务规划方法.通过定期更新环境模型,将动态环境模型下的路径规划问题转换为一系列静态环境模型下的路径规划问题,实现任务层的动态路径规划;在路径规划过程中进行实时约束检查,实现行为规划并将其影响效果迭代入动态路径规划过程中,最终实现巡视器任务规划.针对不确定性,本文引入弹性计划提高任务规划输出结果在实际工程中的可行性.仿真实验结果表明:月面综合环境模型全面描述了影响巡视器任务规划的各种环境因素及其影响;任务规划方法可生成全局最优路径,以及沿路径安排的满足约束条件的巡视器行为序列,最终生成巡视器的月面工作序列,作为地面遥操作实施的依据.     

英国国家科技创新政策的战略规划

在世界新科技革命迅猛发展，经济全球化趋势日益增强的背景下，一个国家的科技政策愈来愈明显地表达出国家竞争战略的意志，可以说科技实力的竞争已演变成为国际竞争的焦点。时代主题的变换与新科技的冲击同样为英国的发展提供了机遇与挑战。英国科技创新战略应运而生，并在实践中取得显著效果，为英国构建国家创新体系奠定了坚实的基础。本文试图通过解读英国科技创新政策的战略规划，为我国制定科技政策提供借鉴与参考。     

Automatic prediction of protein function

Most methods annotating protein function utilise sequence homology to proteins of experimentally known function. Such a homology-based annotation transfer is problematic and limited in scope. Therefore, computational biologists have begun to develop ab initio methods that predict aspects of function, including subcellular localization, post-translational modifications, functional type and protein-protein interactions. For the first two cases, the most accurate approaches rely on identifying short signalling motifs, while the most general methods utilise tools of artificial intelligence. An outstanding new method predicts classes of cellular function directly from sequence. Similarly, promising methods have been developed predicting protein-protein interaction partners at acceptable levels of accuracy for some pairs in entire proteomes. No matter how difficult the task, successes over the last few years have clearly paved the way for ab initio prediction of protein function.Received 26 March 2003; received after revision 15 May 2003; accepted 12 June 2003     

基于场景模型的嵌入式软件测试

结合嵌入式软件的实时性、与硬件紧密结合等特点，采用UML对系统建模，引入场景技术描述系统预期的执行流程，提出了基于二叉树场景模型的测试用例生成方法。改善了人工设计测试用例时易发生的纰漏，如遗漏或冗余的测试用例、工作量大、效率低等问题，缩短了软件的开发周期。