极端洪水灾害风险管理四方合作机制的博弈分析

针对我国洪水灾害、尤其是极端洪水灾害发生概率和频率不断增加的情况,借鉴国内外的研究成果和洪水风险管理现状,提出了在中央政府主导下,中央政府、地方政府、公众、市场四方参与的极端洪水灾害管理合作机制。利用博弈论的原理,构建该机制下四方联盟建立的单期静态博弈模型及重复博弈模型,并对其模型进行了分析。分析发现:在重复博弈下,联盟核心给出的最优激励值承诺受到联盟核心现时评价率以及联盟参与者其他机会收益的影响;联盟参与者不参与联盟而获得的机会收益越高,越能使联盟各方获得最大收益,保证联盟稳定运作。     

基于Bertrand和Cournot博弈的频谱共享模型

针对多个主用户和单个次用户的场景,提出了一种基于Bertrand和Cournot混合博弈的频谱共享模型.主用户拥有两种具有一定替代性的频谱资源,并根据频谱市场需求决定采用Bertrand或Coumot博弈,通过相应地调整频谱数量和价格策略来获得最大收益.最后,推导了该模型静态博弈纳什均衡表达式,分析了动态博弈的稳定性,并通过非完全信息动态博弈的仿真结果验证了模型的正确性.     

政府监管策略与供应链生产商绿色行为博弈研究

应用博弈理论构建了供应链中政府与生产商的多策略博弈模型，求出博弈双方的混合策略最优解，使绿色供应链中政府与生产商之间达到共赢的结果。然后根据求解结果分析，分析政府监督成本以及非绿色行为的惩罚程度等因素对博弈均衡结果的影响，最后进一步阐明提高绿色供应链整体效益的基本思路和政策建议。     

一种新的频谱共享模型

考虑认知无线电系统中多个主用户与单个次用户共享频谱的问题,提出了基于Cournot博弈的频谱共享模型.依次推导了基于Cournot与Bertrand博弈的频谱共享模型的静态纳什均衡,给出了动态博弈获取纳什均衡解的分布式算法,分别分析了只考虑主用户收益与考虑社会效益这两种情况中,信道质量与频谱的可替代性对两种博弈模型的影响,给出了它们的适用范围.最后通过仿真结果验证了本文模型的可行性.     

多企业产量策略多维博弈研究

根据现实社会经济活动中多企业多维博弈现象，首先探讨多个企业关于具有需求替代性产品产量策略的静态和动态多维博弈问题，然后求出其多维均衡结果，并通过算例对比多维博弈与单独博弈的均衡结果。分析表明：在产量策略多维动态博弈中，领头厂商将选择更高的产量策略，获得比尾随厂商更多的利润，即领头厂商具有先动优势；多维博弈下的多维Nash均衡策略优于单独博弈下的Nash均衡策略。     

新能源接入下风火网三方非对称进化博弈分析

在电力市场环境下,风电企业、火电企业和电网企业属于不同的利益主体,三方对新能源的开发利用存在利益冲突,研究风火网三方之间的利益联系,不仅关系参与风电消纳的各方利益解决,还能为制定电力市场结构与竞争规则提供支撑.基于有限理性假设,应用进化博弈理论分析风火网三方的博弈态势,依据收益矩阵建立了三群体2×2×2非对称进化博弈的复制动态系统,对风火网三方动态行为进行模拟,求取了系统各个平衡点满足渐近稳定性的条件.分析了在政府对新能源并网不进行干预时的进化结果,并给出了政府通过出台新能源相关政策改变风火网三方博弈收益,使得三者稳定于期望状态的条件.研究结论可供制定电力市场结构与竞争规则参考.     

基于不完全信息动态博弈的投标联合体组建研究

为了给投标联合体组建提供行之有效的决策分析方法,充分发挥投标联合体的技术优势,分散投资风险、降低工程成本,从成本—收益的角度对主导企业与潜在合作伙伴进行博弈分析,得到在不完全信息条件下主导企业选择潜在合作伙伴加入投标联合体的边界条件,即主导企业是否与某企业组建投标联合体取决于获得的合作收益与主导企业选择合作成本的差距,以及合作双方获得的收益与成本差异的双向作用;潜在合作伙伴是否愿意加入投标联合体,取决于博弈双方的合作收益与投入成本的比较。研究对于投标联合体的构建具有一定的理论意义,也为投标联合体的组建提供了切实有效的决策框架。     

创业投资辛迪加网络中控制权的演化博弈分析

创业投资的高风险性和信息不对称性使创业投资中控制权分配问题逐渐成为关系到风险投资项目成败的关键。本文运用演化博弈方法,分析控制权在辛迪加网络中两类创业投资家之间分配的博弈过程,得出在不同控制权分配比例下相应的演化稳定策略。在此结果上表明即期博弈中,创业投资家的私人收益和项目产出分配值的对比关系与控制权的分配密切相关。     

美国约翰霍普金斯大学大流行模拟研究分析及启示与建议

为推动政府和公众关注潜在的传染病威胁,提升政府在大型传染病暴发时的应急管理能力,美国约翰霍普金斯大学健康安全中心已先后4次举办传染病演习模拟研究活动。本文详细分析这4次演习活动的背景、过程和政策成果,结合我国在应对新型冠状病毒肺炎工作中积累的经验和教训提出建议,包括:1)完善建设国家和地方各级疾病控制体系; 2)完善公共卫生事件大数据管理信息体系建设; 3)公共卫生领域的智库要加强前瞻性公共卫生战略与政策研究; 4)政府部门需要高度重视公共卫生领域各种传染病预警和应对策略研究; 5)建立应对重大突发公共卫生事件的医疗物资战略储备; 6)加强人口健康和公共卫生安全领域的科研创新; 7)积极在全球生物安全和公共卫生领域发挥中国影响力。     

分享经济新背景下集群知识共享的博弈研究

分享经济是经济增长的新动能。知识分享作为分享经济的一种形式,将闲置知识和需求进行高效按需匹配,是知识资源的"去库存",为产业集群合作创新提供动力。分享经济视角下的集群知识共享研究,不仅是对产业集群知识溢出研究的新拓展,也是对供给侧改革内涵的再提升。知识共享是集群企业间互动与博弈的动态过程,运用演化博弈模型分析发现:集群企业闲置知识存量、分享比例、知识吸收能力、分享成本、共享收益和地方政府支持是企业知识分享的影响因素,有限理性的博弈方会观察对方的行动,预测对方的决策结果,从而不断进行学习和调整,使自己的决策能带来更多的收益。     

Locating the ‘culture wars’ in laboratory animal research: national constitutions and global competition

The increasingly global scope of biomedical research and testing using animals is generating disagreement over the best way to regulate laboratory animal science and care. Despite many common aims, the practices through which political and epistemic authority are allocated in the regulations around animal research varies internationally, coming together in what can be identified as different national constitutions. Tensions between these periodically erupt within the laboratory animal research community as a ‘cultural war’ between those favouring centralised control and those advocating local flexibility. Drawing on long-term engagement with key events and actors in these policy debates, I propose these national differences in the constitution of animal research can be understood through the intersection of two key variables: i) the location of institutional responsibility to permit research projects and ii) the distribution of epistemic authority to shape research practices. These variables are used to explain the development of different policy frameworks in the UK, Europe, and the USA, and identify where there is convergence and divergence in practice. Concluding, I suggest the way these approaches are combined and enacted in different countries reflects different national civic epistemologies, which are coming into conflict in the increasingly global networks of laboratory animal science.     

国企治理中内部人控制的环境与机理研究

内部人控制是我国国企治理中面临的一个严峻问题.本文认为,国企治理中的内部人控制既有来自社会、文化、心理方面的宏观原因,又具体地体现着现行产权和监督体制下的当事人与监管部门的博弈;国有企业的内部人控制很难根除,但可以通过相关制度、机制的不断完善进行预防和缓解     

Climates as commodities: Jean Pierre Purry and the modelling of the best climate on Earth

The paper looks at how an early eighteenth-century climatological model of the ‘best climate’ on Earth became a platform for political, economic, and demographic action of extraordinary significance for the colonization of new commodity environments. It analyzes the science used by an early modern business adventurer to model ‘climate’ as an economic tool informing imperial governance and exploitation of local resources. Jean Pierre Purry’s construction of ‘model climate’ portrayed North Carolina’s township at Yamassee River as an ideal environment geared toward mercantilist principles of trade but also as a model community based on skilled labor and optimal climatic capital. His climatological analysis was a purposeful act of policy making based on a science of colonial expansion similar to more recent calls at economic modelling of future climate impact.     

The importance of the forecast

Careful forecasts, as accurate as possible, are central to the successful implementation of policy. There are fundamental reasons why policy makers cannot ‘play by ear’, adjusting policy quickly to each unexpected deviation in economic outcomes. Specific incidents are described where economic policy went awry because of faulty forecasts. The policy process is described in detail to show precisely where the forecast enters. Forecasting as a validation tool for establishing credibility in policy formation is analysed and discussed. Some estimated measure of forecast accuracy is presented, together with commentary on the necessary degrees of precision for successful implementation of policy.     

A frosty disagreement: John Tyndall,James David Forbes,and the early formation of the X-Club

How do glaciers move? This seemingly straightforward question provided the backdrop for a heated debate between the physicists John Tyndall (1820–1893) and James David Forbes (1809–1868) in the late 1850s and early 1860s. Forbes described the motion of glaciers as that of a viscous fluid. After visiting the Alps, Tyndall proposed an alternative theory that combined fracture and regelation. The glacial controversy ensued. Yet the debate was never simply about whether glaciers moved like honey, or if they moved by continuously breaking and re-attaching. This paper shows that the glacial controversy formed an important prelude to the strategies used by the X-Club in reforming science and establishing cultural authority. There was a central difference in the way Forbes and Tyndall presented their scientific arguments. Tyndall and his allies used the changes in the periodical press as part of their strategy for establishing and maintaining cultural and scientific authority. By contrast, Forbes and his supporters, including the North British physicists, were not as quick to make use of this new medium. This paper, therefore, examines in detail the significance of these two publishing strategies in shaping the nature and results of the glacial controversy.     

Endocrine and environmental aspects of sex differentiation in fish

This paper reviews the current knowledge concerning the endocrine and environmental regulations of both gonadal sex differentiation in gonochoristic and sex inversion in hermaphroditic fish. Within the central nervous system, gonadotropins seem to play a role in triggering sex inversion in hermaphroditic fish. In gonochorists, although potentially active around this period, the hypothalamo-pituitary axis is probably not involved in triggering sex differentiation. Although steroids and steroidogenic enzymes are probably not the initial triggers of sex differentiation, new data, including molecular approaches, have confirmed that they are key physiological steps in the regulation of this process. Environmental factors can strongly influence sex differentiation and sex inversion in gonochoristic and hermaphroditic fish, respectively. The most important environmental determinant of sex would appear to be temperature in the former species, and social factors in the latter. Interactions between environmental factors and genotype have been suggested for both gonochoristic and hermaphroditic fish.     

Melatonin,mitochondria, and the skin

The skin being a protective barrier between external and internal (body) environments has the sensory and adaptive capacity to maintain local and global body homeostasis in response to noxious factors. An important part of the skin response to stress is its ability for melatonin synthesis and subsequent metabolism through the indolic and kynuric pathways. Indeed, melatonin and its metabolites have emerged as indispensable for physiological skin functions and for effective protection of a cutaneous homeostasis from hostile environmental factors. Moreover, they attenuate the pathological processes including carcinogenesis and other hyperproliferative/inflammatory conditions. Interestingly, mitochondria appear to be a central hub of melatonin metabolism in the skin cells. Furthermore, substantial evidence has accumulated on the protective role of the melatonin against ultraviolet radiation and the attendant mitochondrial dysfunction. Melatonin and its metabolites appear to have a modulatory impact on mitochondrion redox and bioenergetic homeostasis, as well as the anti-apoptotic effects. Of note, some metabolites exhibit even greater impact than melatonin alone. Herein, we emphasize that melatonin–mitochondria axis would control integumental functions designed to protect local and perhaps global homeostasis. Given the phylogenetic origin and primordial actions of melatonin, we propose that the melatonin-related mitochondrial functions represent an evolutionary conserved mechanism involved in cellular adaptive response to skin injury and repair.     

跨国企业间的多维博弈分析

研究了两个跨国企业同时生产具有相互替代性的两种产品时的策略选择问题。建立了两个跨国企业关于两种产品的多维博弈模型，得到了其Nash均衡解。运用多维博弈的方法分析得知，单独博弈仅是多维博弈的一种特殊情况，且企业进行单独博弈的策略劣于其进行多维博弈的策略。当两个跨国企业对两种具有相互替代性的产品同时进行多维博弈时，要充分考虑它们之间的影响关系，这样选择的策略才是最优策略。     

The COVID-19 pandemic and global environmental change: Emerging research needs

The outbreak of COVID-19 raised numerous questions on the interactions between the occurrence of new infections, the environment, climate and health. The European Union requested the H2020 HERA project which aims at setting priorities in research on environment, climate and health, to identify relevant research needs regarding Covid-19. The emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 appears to be related to urbanization, habitat destruction, live animal trade, intensive livestock farming and global travel. The contribution of climate and air pollution requires additional studies. Importantly, the severity of COVID-19 depends on the interactions between the viral infection, ageing and chronic diseases such as metabolic, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and obesity which are themselves influenced by environmental stressors. The mechanisms of these interactions deserve additional scrutiny. Both the pandemic and the social response to the disease have elicited an array of behavioural and societal changes that may remain long after the pandemic and that may have long term health effects including on mental health. Recovery plans are currently being discussed or implemented and the environmental and health impacts of those plans are not clearly foreseen. Clearly, COVID-19 will have a long-lasting impact on the environmental health field and will open new research perspectives and policy needs.