Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations before 2.2 billion years ago

The composition of the Earth's early atmosphere is a subject of continuing debate. In particular, it has been suggested that elevated concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide would have been necessary to maintain normal surface temperatures in the face of lower solar luminosity in early Earth history. Fossil weathering profiles, known as palaeosols, have provided semi-quantitative constraints on atmospheric oxygen partial pressure (pO2) before 2.2 Gyr ago. Here we use the same well studied palaeosols to constrain atmospheric pCO2 between 2.75 and 2.2 Gyr ago. The observation that iron lost from the tops of these profiles was reprecipitated lower down as iron silicate minerals, rather than as iron carbonate, indicates that atmospheric pCO2 must have been less than 10(-1.4) atm--about 100 times today's level of 360 p.p.m., and at least five times lower than that required in one-dimensional climate models to compensate for lower solar luminosity at 2.75 Gyr. Our results suggest that either the Earth's early climate was much more sensitive to increases in pCO2 than has been thought, or that one or more greenhouse gases other than CO2 contributed significantly to the atmosphere's radiative balance during the late Archaean and early Proterozoic eons.     

A 300-million-year record of atmospheric carbon dioxide from fossil plant cuticles

To understand better the link between atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate over geological time, records of past CO2 are reconstructed from geochemical proxies. Although these records have provided us with a broad picture of CO2 variation throughout the Phanerozoic eon (the past 544 Myr), inconsistencies and gaps remain that still need to be resolved. Here I present a continuous 300-Myr record of stomatal abundance from fossil leaves of four genera of plants that are closely related to the present-day Ginkgo tree. Using the known relationship between leaf stomatal abundance and growing season CO2 concentrations, I reconstruct past atmospheric CO2 concentrations. For the past 300 Myr, only two intervals of low CO2 (<1,000 p.p.m.v.) are inferred, both of which coincide with known ice ages in Neogene (1-8 Myr) and early Permian (275-290 Myr) times. But for most of the Mesozoic era (65-250 Myr), CO2 levels were high (1,000-2,000 p.p.m.v.), with transient excursions to even higher CO2 (>2,000 p.p.m.v.) concentrations. These results are consistent with some reconstructions of past CO2 (refs 1, 2) and palaeotemperature records, but suggest that CO2 reconstructions based on carbon isotope proxies may be compromised by episodic outbursts of isotopically light methane. These results support the role of water vapour, methane and CO2 in greenhouse climate warming over the past 300 Myr.     

A carbon isotope challenge to the snowball Earth

The snowball Earth hypothesis postulates that the planet was entirely covered by ice for millions of years in the Neoproterozoic era, in a self-enhanced glaciation caused by the high albedo of the ice-covered planet. In a hard-snowball picture, the subsequent rapid unfreezing resulted from an ultra-greenhouse event attributed to the buildup of volcanic carbon dioxide (CO(2)) during glaciation. High partial pressures of atmospheric CO(2) (pCO2; from 20,000 to 90,000?p.p.m.v.) in the aftermath of the Marinoan glaciation (～635?Myr ago) have been inferred from both boron and triple oxygen isotopes. These pCO2 values are 50 to 225 times higher than present-day levels. Here, we re-evaluate these estimates using paired carbon isotopic data for carbonate layers that cap Neoproterozoic glacial deposits and are considered to record post-glacial sea level rise. The new data reported here for Brazilian cap carbonates, together with previous ones for time-equivalent units, provide estimates lower than 3,200?p.p.m.v.--and possibly as low as the current value of ～400?p.p.m.v. Our new constraint, and our re-interpretation of the boron and triple oxygen isotope data, provide a completely different picture of the late Neoproterozoic environment, with low atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and oxygen that are inconsistent with a hard-snowball Earth.     

Late Miocene decoupling of oceanic warmth and atmospheric carbon dioxide forcing

Deep-time palaeoclimate studies are vitally important for developing a complete understanding of climate responses to changes in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (that is, the atmospheric partial pressure of CO(2), p(co(2))). Although past studies have explored these responses during portions of the Cenozoic era (the most recent 65.5 million years (Myr) of Earth history), comparatively little is known about the climate of the late Miocene (～12-5 Myr ago), an interval with p(co(2)) values of only 200-350?parts per million by volume but nearly ice-free conditions in the Northern Hemisphere and warmer-than-modern temperatures on the continents. Here we present quantitative geochemical sea surface temperature estimates from the Miocene mid-latitude North Pacific Ocean, and show that oceanic warmth persisted throughout the interval of low p(co(2)) ～12-5 Myr ago. We also present new stable isotope measurements from the western equatorial Pacific that, in conjunction with previously published data, reveal a long-term trend of thermocline shoaling in the equatorial Pacific since ～13?Myr ago. We propose that a relatively deep global thermocline, reductions in low-latitude gradients in sea surface temperature, and cloud and water vapour feedbacks may help to explain the warmth of the late Miocene. Additional shoaling of the thermocline after 5?Myr ago probably explains the stronger coupling between p(co(2)), sea surface temperatures and climate that is characteristic of the more recent Pliocene and Pleistocene epochs.     

Coupling of surface temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations during the Palaeozoic era

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations seem to have been several times modern levels during much of the Palaeozoic era (543-248 million years ago), but decreased during the Carboniferous period to concentrations similar to that of today. Given that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, it has been proposed that surface temperatures were significantly higher during the earlier portions of the Palaeozoic era. A reconstruction of tropical sea surface temperatures based on the delta18O of carbonate fossils indicates, however, that the magnitude of temperature variability throughout this period was small, suggesting that global climate may be independent of variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Here we present estimates of sea surface temperatures that were obtained from fossil brachiopod and mollusc shells using the 'carbonate clumped isotope' method-an approach that, unlike the delta18O method, does not require independent estimates of the isotopic composition of the Palaeozoic ocean. Our results indicate that tropical sea surface temperatures were significantly higher than today during the Early Silurian period (443-423 Myr ago), when carbon dioxide concentrations are thought to have been relatively high, and were broadly similar to today during the Late Carboniferous period (314-300 Myr ago), when carbon dioxide concentrations are thought to have been similar to the present-day value. Our results are consistent with the proposal that increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations drive or amplify increased global temperatures.     

Palaeoclimatology: the record for marine isotopic stage 11

The marine isotopic stage 11 (MIS 11) is an extraordinarily long interglacial period in the Earth's history that occurred some 400,000 years ago and lasted for about 30,000 years. During this period there were weak, astronomically induced changes in the distribution of solar energy reaching the Earth. The conditions of this orbital climate forcing are similar to those of today's interglacial period, and they rendered the climate susceptible to other forcing--for example, to changes in the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Here we use ice-core data from the Antarctic Vostok core to reconstruct a complete atmospheric carbon dioxide record for MIS 11. The record indicates that values for carbon dioxide throughout the interglacial period were close to the Earth's pre-industrial levels and that both solar energy and carbon dioxide may have helped to make MIS 11 exceptionally long. Anomalies in the oceanic carbonate system recorded in marine sediments at the time, for example while coral reefs were forming, apparently left no signature on atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.     

A 'snowball Earth' climate triggered by continental break-up through changes in runoff

Geological and palaeomagnetic studies indicate that ice sheets may have reached the Equator at the end of the Proterozoic eon, 800 to 550 million years ago, leading to the suggestion of a fully ice-covered 'snowball Earth'. Climate model simulations indicate that such a snowball state for the Earth depends on anomalously low atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, in addition to the Sun being 6 per cent fainter than it is today. However, the mechanisms producing such low carbon dioxide concentrations remain controversial. Here we assess the effect of the palaeogeographic changes preceding the Sturtian glacial period, 750 million years ago, on the long-term evolution of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels using the coupled climate-geochemical model GEOCLIM. In our simulation, the continental break-up of Rodinia leads to an increase in runoff and hence consumption of carbon dioxide through continental weathering that decreases atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations by 1,320 p.p.m. This indicates that tectonic changes could have triggered a progressive transition from a 'greenhouse' to an 'icehouse' climate during the Neoproterozoic era. When we combine these results with the concomitant weathering effect of the voluminous basaltic traps erupted throughout the break-up of Rodinia, our simulation results in a snowball glaciation.     

A possible nitrogen crisis for Archaean life due to reduced nitrogen fixation by lightning.

Nitrogen is an essential element for life and is often the limiting nutrient for terrestrial ecosystems. As most nitrogen is locked in the kinetically stable form, N2, in the Earth's atmosphere, processes that can fix N2 into biologically available forms-such as nitrate and ammonia-control the supply of nitrogen for organisms. On the early Earth, nitrogen is thought to have been fixed abiotically, as nitric oxide formed during lightning discharge. The advent of biological nitrogen fixation suggests that at some point the demand for fixed nitrogen exceeded the supply from abiotic sources, but the timing and causes of the onset of biological nitrogen fixation remain unclear. Here we report an experimental simulation of nitrogen fixation by lightning over a range of Hadean (4.5-3.8 Gyr ago) and Archaean (3.8-2.5 Gyr ago) atmospheric compositions, from predominantly carbon dioxide to predominantly dinitrogen (but always without oxygen). We infer that, as atmospheric CO2 decreased over the Archaean period, the production of nitric oxide from lightning discharge decreased by two orders of magnitude until about 2.2 Gyr. After this time, the rise in oxygen (or methane) concentrations probably initiated other abiotic sources of nitrogen. Although the temporary reduction in nitric oxide production may have lasted for only 100 Myr or less, this was potentially long enough to cause an ecological crisis that triggered the development of biological nitrogen fixation.     

Thresholds for Cenozoic bipolar glaciation

The long-standing view of Earth's Cenozoic glacial history calls for the first continental-scale glaciation of Antarctica in the earliest Oligocene epoch ( approximately 33.6 million years ago), followed by the onset of northern-hemispheric glacial cycles in the late Pliocene epoch, about 31 million years later. The pivotal early Oligocene event is characterized by a rapid shift of 1.5 parts per thousand in deep-sea benthic oxygen-isotope values (Oi-1) within a few hundred thousand years, reflecting a combination of terrestrial ice growth and deep-sea cooling. The apparent absence of contemporaneous cooling in deep-sea Mg/Ca records, however, has been argued to reflect the growth of more ice than can be accommodated on Antarctica; this, combined with new evidence of continental cooling and ice-rafted debris in the Northern Hemisphere during this period, raises the possibility that Oi-1 represents a precursory bipolar glaciation. Here we test this hypothesis using an isotope-capable global climate/ice-sheet model that accommodates both the long-term decline of Cenozoic atmospheric CO(2) levels and the effects of orbital forcing. We show that the CO(2) threshold below which glaciation occurs in the Northern Hemisphere ( approximately 280 p.p.m.v.) is much lower than that for Antarctica ( approximately 750 p.p.m.v.). Therefore, the growth of ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere immediately following Antarctic glaciation would have required rapid CO(2) drawdown within the Oi-1 timeframe, to levels lower than those estimated by geochemical proxies and carbon-cycle models. Instead of bipolar glaciation, we find that Oi-1 is best explained by Antarctic glaciation alone, combined with deep-sea cooling of up to 4 degrees C and Antarctic ice that is less isotopically depleted (-30 to -35 per thousand) than previously suggested. Proxy CO(2) estimates remain above our model's northern-hemispheric glaciation threshold of approximately 280 p.p.m.v. until approximately 25 Myr ago, but have been near or below that level ever since. This implies that episodic northern-hemispheric ice sheets have been possible some 20 million years earlier than currently assumed (although still much later than Oi-1) and could explain some of the variability in Miocene sea-level records.     

A carbon isotope record of CO2 levels during the late Quaternary

Analyses of gases trapped in continental ice sheets have shown that the concentration of CO2 in the Earth's early atmosphere increased from 180 to 280 p.p.m. during the most recent glacial-interglacial transition. This change must have been driven by an increase in the concentration of CO2 dissolved in the mixed layer of the ocean. Biochemical and physiological factors associated with photosynthetic carbon fixation in this layer should lead to a relationship between concentrations of dissolved CO2 and the carbon isotopic composition of phytoplanktonic organic material, such that increased atmospheric CO2 should enhance the difference in 13C content between dissolved inorganic carbon and organic products of photosynthesis. Here we show that a signal related to atmospheric CO2 levels can be seen in the isotope record of a hemipelagic sediment core, which we can correlate with the CO2 record of the Vostok ice core. Calibration of the relationship between isotope fractionation and CO2 levels should permit the extrapolation of CO2 records to times earlier than those for which ice-core records are available.     

Covariation of carbon dioxide and temperature from the Vostok ice core after deuterium-excess correction

Ice-core measurements of carbon dioxide and the deuterium palaeothermometer reveal significant covariation of temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations throughout the climate cycles of the past ice ages. This covariation provides compelling evidence that CO2 is an important forcing factor for climate. But this interpretation is challenged by some substantial mismatches of the CO2 and deuterium records, especially during the onset of the last glaciation, about 120 kyr ago. Here we incorporate measurements of deuterium excess from Vostok in the temperature reconstruction and show that much of the mismatch is an artefact caused by variations of climate in the water vapour source regions. Using a model that corrects for this effect, we derive a new estimate for the covariation of CO2 and temperature, of r2 = 0.89 for the past 150 kyr and r2 = 0.84 for the period 350-150 kyr ago. Given the complexity of the biogeochemical systems involved, this close relationship strongly supports the importance of carbon dioxide as a forcing factor of climate. Our results also suggest that the mechanisms responsible for the drawdown of CO2 may be more responsive to temperature than previously thought.     

High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present

Changes in past atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations can be determined by measuring the composition of air trapped in ice cores from Antarctica. So far, the Antarctic Vostok and EPICA Dome C ice cores have provided a composite record of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels over the past 650,000 years. Here we present results of the lowest 200 m of the Dome C ice core, extending the record of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration by two complete glacial cycles to 800,000 yr before present. From previously published data and the present work, we find that atmospheric carbon dioxide is strongly correlated with Antarctic temperature throughout eight glacial cycles but with significantly lower concentrations between 650,000 and 750,000 yr before present. Carbon dioxide levels are below 180 parts per million by volume (p.p.m.v.) for a period of 3,000 yr during Marine Isotope Stage 16, possibly reflecting more pronounced oceanic carbon storage. We report the lowest carbon dioxide concentration measured in an ice core, which extends the pre-industrial range of carbon dioxide concentrations during the late Quaternary by about 10 p.p.m.v. to 172-300 p.p.m.v.     

Impacts of orbital forcing and atmospheric carbon dioxide on Miocene ice-sheet expansion

The processes causing the middle Miocene global cooling, which marked the Earth's final transition into an 'icehouse' climate about 13.9 million years ago (Myr ago), remain enigmatic. Tectonically driven circulation changes and variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have been suggested as driving mechanisms, but the lack of adequately preserved sedimentary successions has made rigorous testing of these hypotheses difficult. Here we present high-resolution climate proxy records, covering the period from 14.7 to 12.7 million years ago, from two complete sediment cores from the northwest and southeast subtropical Pacific Ocean. Using new chronologies through the correlation to the latest orbital model, we find relatively constant, low summer insolation over Antarctica coincident with declining atmospheric carbon dioxide levels at the time of Antarctic ice-sheet expansion and global cooling, suggesting a causal link. We surmise that the thermal isolation of Antarctica played a role in providing sustained long-term climatic boundary conditions propitious for ice-sheet formation. Our data document that Antarctic glaciation was rapid, taking place within two obliquity cycles, and coincided with a striking transition from obliquity to eccentricity as the drivers of climatic change.     

Oxidation of the Ediacaran ocean

Oxygenation of the Earth's surface is increasingly thought to have occurred in two steps. The first step, which occurred approximately 2,300 million years (Myr) ago, involved a significant increase in atmospheric oxygen concentrations and oxygenation of the surface ocean. A further increase in atmospheric oxygen appears to have taken place during the late Neoproterozoic period ( approximately 800-542 Myr ago). This increase may have stimulated the evolution of macroscopic multicellular animals and the subsequent radiation of calcified invertebrates, and may have led to oxygenation of the deep ocean. However, the nature and timing of Neoproterozoic oxidation remain uncertain. Here we present high-resolution carbon isotope and sulphur isotope records from the Huqf Supergroup, Sultanate of Oman, that cover most of the Ediacaran period (approximately 635 to approximately 548 Myr ago). These records indicate that the ocean became increasingly oxygenated after the end of the Marinoan glaciation, and they allow us to identify three distinct stages of oxidation. When considered in the context of other records from this period, our data indicate that certain groups of eukaryotic organisms appeared and diversified during the second and third stages of oxygenation. The second stage corresponds with the Shuram excursion in the carbon isotope record and seems to have involved the oxidation of a large reservoir of organic carbon suspended in the deep ocean, indicating that this event may have had a key role in the evolution of eukaryotic organisms. Our data thus provide new insights into the oxygenation of the Ediacaran ocean and the stepwise restructuring of the carbon and sulphur cycles that occurred during this significant period of Earth's history.     

Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model

The continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide due to anthropogenic emissions is predicted to lead to significant changes in climate. About half of the current emissions are being absorbed by the ocean and by land ecosystems, but this absorption is sensitive to climate as well as to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, creating a feedback loop. General circulation models have generally excluded the feedback between climate and the biosphere, using static vegetation distributions and CO2 concentrations from simple carbon-cycle models that do not include climate change. Here we present results from a fully coupled, three-dimensional carbon-climate model, indicating that carbon-cycle feedbacks could significantly accelerate climate change over the twenty-first century. We find that under a 'business as usual' scenario, the terrestrial biosphere acts as an overall carbon sink until about 2050, but turns into a source thereafter. By 2100, the ocean uptake rate of 5 Gt C yr(-1) is balanced by the terrestrial carbon source, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are 250 p.p.m.v. higher in our fully coupled simulation than in uncoupled carbon models, resulting in a global-mean warming of 5.5 K, as compared to 4 K without the carbon-cycle feedback.     

High levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide necessary for the termination of global glaciation

The possibility that the Earth suffered episodes of global glaciation as recently as the Neoproterozoic period, between about 900 and 543 million years ago, has been widely discussed. Termination of such 'hard snowball Earth' climate states has been proposed to proceed from accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Many salient aspects of the snowball scenario depend critically on the threshold of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations needed to trigger deglaciation. Here I present simulations with a general circulation model, using elevated carbon dioxide levels to estimate this deglaciation threshold. The model simulates several phenomena that are expected to be significant in a 'snowball Earth' scenario, but which have not been considered in previous studies with less sophisticated models, such as a reduction of vertical temperature gradients in winter, a reduction in summer tropopause height, the effect of snow cover and a reduction in cloud greenhouse effects. In my simulations, the system remains far short of deglaciation even at atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of 550 times the present levels (0.2 bar of CO2). I find that at much higher carbon dioxide levels, deglaciation is unlikely unless unknown feedback cycles that are not captured in the model come into effect.     

Eocene bipolar glaciation associated with global carbon cycle changes

The transition from the extreme global warmth of the early Eocene 'greenhouse' climate approximately 55 million years ago to the present glaciated state is one of the most prominent changes in Earth's climatic evolution. It is widely accepted that large ice sheets first appeared on Antarctica approximately 34 million years ago, coincident with decreasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and a deepening of the calcite compensation depth in the world's oceans, and that glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere began much later, between 10 and 6 million years ago. Here we present records of sediment and foraminiferal geochemistry covering the greenhouse-icehouse climate transition. We report evidence for synchronous deepening and subsequent oscillations in the calcite compensation depth in the tropical Pacific and South Atlantic oceans from approximately 42 million years ago, with a permanent deepening 34 million years ago. The most prominent variations in the calcite compensation depth coincide with changes in seawater oxygen isotope ratios of up to 1.5 per mil, suggesting a lowering of global sea level through significant storage of ice in both hemispheres by at least 100 to 125 metres. Variations in benthic carbon isotope ratios of up to approximately 1.4 per mil occurred at the same time, indicating large changes in carbon cycling. We suggest that the greenhouse-icehouse transition was closely coupled to the evolution of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and that negative carbon cycle feedbacks may have prevented the permanent establishment of large ice sheets earlier than 34 million years ago.     

The oxidation state of Hadean magmas and implications for early Earth's atmosphere

Magmatic outgassing of volatiles from Earth's interior probably played a critical part in determining the composition of the earliest atmosphere, more than 4,000 million years (Myr) ago. Given an elemental inventory of hydrogen, carbon, nitrogen, oxygen and sulphur, the identity of molecular species in gaseous volcanic emanations depends critically on the pressure (fugacity) of oxygen. Reduced melts having oxygen fugacities close to that defined by the iron-wüstite buffer would yield volatile species such as CH(4), H(2), H(2)S, NH(3) and CO, whereas melts close to the fayalite-magnetite-quartz buffer would be similar to present-day conditions and would be dominated by H(2)O, CO(2), SO(2) and N(2) (refs 1-4). Direct constraints on the oxidation state of terrestrial magmas before 3,850?Myr before present (that is, the Hadean eon) are tenuous because the rock record is sparse or absent. Samples from this earliest period of Earth's history are limited to igneous detrital zircons that pre-date the known rock record, with ages approaching ～4,400?Myr (refs 5-8). Here we report a redox-sensitive calibration to determine the oxidation state of Hadean magmatic melts that is based on the incorporation of cerium into zircon crystals. We find that the melts have average oxygen fugacities that are consistent with an oxidation state defined by the fayalite-magnetite-quartz buffer, similar to present-day conditions. Moreover, selected Hadean zircons (having chemical characteristics consistent with crystallization specifically from mantle-derived melts) suggest oxygen fugacities similar to those of Archaean and present-day mantle-derived lavas as early as ～4,350?Myr before present. These results suggest that outgassing of Earth's interior later than ～200?Myr into the history of Solar System formation would not have resulted in a reducing atmosphere.     

300-Myr-old magmatic CO2 in natural gas reservoirs of the west Texas Permian basin

Except in regions of recent crustal extension, the dominant origin of carbon dioxide in fluids in sedimentary basins has been assumed to be from crustal organic matter or mineral reactions. Here we show, by contrast, that Rayleigh fractionation caused by partial degassing of a magma body can explain the CO2/3He ratios and delta13C(CO2) values observed in CO2-rich natural gases in the west Texas Val Verde basin and also the mantle 3He/22Ne ratios observed in other basin systems. Regional changes in CO2/3He and CO2/CH4 ratios can be explained if the CO2 input pre-dates methane generation in the basin, which occurred about 280 Myr ago. Uplift to the north of the Val Verde basin between 310 and 280 Myr ago appears to be the only tectonic event with appropriate timing and location to be the source of the magmatic CO2. Our identification of magmatic CO2 in a foreland basin indicates that the origin of CO2 in other mid-continent basin systems should be re-evaluated. Also, the inferred closed-system preservation of natural gas in a trapping structure for approximately 300 Myr is far longer than the residence time predicted by diffusion models.     

The life span of the biosphere revisited

A decade ago, Lovelock and Whitfield raised the question of how much longer the biosphere can survive on Earth. They pointed out that, despite the current fossil-fuel induced increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration, the long-term trend should be in the opposite direction: as increased solar luminosity warms the Earth, silicate rocks should weather more readily, causing atmospheric CO2 to decrease. In their model, atmospheric CO2 falls below the critical level for C3 photosynthesis, 150 parts per million (p.p.m.), in only 100 Myr, and this is assumed to mark the demise of the biosphere as a whole. Here, we re-examine this problem using a more elaborate model that includes a more accurate treatment of the greenhouse effect of CO2, a biologically mediated weathering parameterization, and the realization that C4 photosynthesis can persist to much lower concentrations of atmospheric CO2(<10 p.p.m.). We find that a C4-plant-based biosphere could survive for at least another 0.9 Gyr to 1.5 Gyr after the present time, depending respectively on whether CO2 or temperature is the limiting factor. Within an additional 1 Gyr, Earth may lose its water to space, thereby following the path of its sister planet, Venus.