长江三角洲地区地面GPS探测大气的研究进展

简述利用GPS探测数据反演得到大气可降水量(PWV)的月平均分布情况,单站PWV时序图与1小时降水量的对应关系。GPS/PWV月平均分布具有一定的季节变化特征,PWV的变化与降水过程有很好的对应关系,利用GPS/PWV可以很好的为大暴雨、台风、梅雨期等的监测和预报服务。     

长江三角洲地区地面GPS探测大气的研究进展

简述利用GPS探测数据反演得到大气可降水量(PWV)的月平均分布情况,单站PWV时序图与1小时降水量的对应关系。GPS/PWV月平均分布具有一定的季节变化特征,PWV的变化与降水过程有很好的对应关系,利用GPS/PWV可以很好的为大暴雨、台风、梅雨期等的监测和预报服务。     

区域大气可降水量变化的地基GPS探测研究

利用南京市地基全球定位系统(GPS)网的观测资料,分析比较不同的卫星星历、不同数量的国际GPS服务(IGS)参考站、不同的截止高度角,以及不同的映射函数模型对GPS探测大气可降水量(PWV)的影响。结果表明:使用快速预报星历,选择3个IGS参考站,采用10°以下截止高度角和VMF1映射函数模型进行区域大气可降水量解算是最优的解算策略。最后根据此解算策略,对2009年南京地区某次降雪预报的误报进行分析解释,进一步证明了利用区域GPS网监测大气可降水量可较准确地分析区域大气的天气变化,提高中小尺度天气预报精度。     

GPS卫星小高度角下多普勒频移的实验分析

实时卫星位置解算在整个GPS接收机导航解算过程中占有极其重要的地位.正常情况下,多普勒频移应随着卫星高度角的增大而减小.然而,在对实时卫星位置解算实验进行结果分析时,却出现了高度角(仰角)较小的卫星所解算出的多普勒频移不成反比的现象.针对这一现象,文中设计实验进行分析得出:在高度角小于11°时,高度角大小与多普勒频移不成反比.     

MODIS近红外资料反演大气水汽总含量

遥感反演大气水汽总含量对于研究水循环、全球气候变化、天气预报、遥感大气校正等具有重要意义。本文考虑了卫星扫描视场角的影响,实现并改进了用MODIS近红外资料反演大气水汽总含量的两通道比值反演模式,并用辐射传输模式定量讨论了误差。结果表明,反演值和探空均方根误差RMS=0.29 g/cm2,相关系数在92%。对月平均水汽分布的比较显示,反演水汽总含量与MODIS产品的分布是一致的,且更为合理。     

地基12通道微波辐射计反演大气温湿廓线及估算雷达路径积分衰减

利用TP/WVP-3000型地基微波辐射计12通道亮温观测资料,发展了一套大气温湿及液态水廓线反演算法.首先对近20年历史探空数据进行数据转换、插值等处理后,分无云和有云两种类型,运用MWMOD微波辐射传输模式,计算无云情况下的微波亮温集,根据相对湿度廓线,利用模式的绝热液水含量分析方法,模拟计算出液态水廓线及对应的微波亮温数据集,利用改进BP神经网络计算模型,通过神经网络学习训练,获取代表该地区的神经网络系数,用于反演计算大气温度、水汽密度、相对湿度和液态水廓线.与GPS探空数据对比,反演的大气温度廓线在7 km以下误差均在3 K以内,水汽密度廓线在6 km以下误差均在3 g/m2以内,部分底层廓线的反演值与GPS探空观测接近,获得了较好的反演结果.同时,通过模式分析出云水廓线,弥补GPS探空不足,利用微波辐射计观测进行验证,估算雷达路径积分衰减,用于试验降水雷达反演分析.     

基于超快速星历的数值天气预报可行性研究

为实时获取高时空分辨率的大气水汽场,基于地基GPS遥感大气水汽原理,结合香港CORS网的实测数据进行处理,根据大气可降水量(PWV)解算过程中超快速星历预报部分的时间跨度不同,设计了3个方案,并比较了各方案中最终精密星历、超快速星历和探空资料解算得到的PWV序列。结果表明,利用超快速星历估计PWV与最终精密星历结果一致,其精度满足气象预报等实时业务的要求。     

利用GPS数据探测地球大气可降水量的研究

本文首先论述了国内外利用GPS数据反演大气可降水量的研究现状和进展,然后介绍了GPS反演大气水汽的原理与方法和GAMIT软件的基本的批处理过程,并利用GAMIT软件对选取的五个IGS站包括BJFS(北京房山)2010年9月GPS数据进行解算,反演了BJFS 9月份的大气可降水量,并将所得数据分别与IGS站测得数据和实测降水量数据进行比较分析。结果表明,所得数据其趋势基本一致,论证了利用GPS反演大气可降水量的可行性。     

GPS掩星折射率的一维变分同化

为了探索GPS掩星观测资料在数值预报模式中的同化应用,利用GPS掩星折射率的一维变分同化技术,将MM5模式输出结果作为背景场,以GPS掩星折射率作为观测值来进行一维变分同化。将同化反演后得到的气压、温度、水汽压廓线与德国地学研究中心（GFZ）公布的气象观测资料进行了对比和分析,得到了较好的比较效果。证实了GPS掩星资料的合理同化对数值预报可进行有效的改进,并提出了下一步的同化方向。     

基于GPS可降水量反演的武汉市大雾生消研究

介绍了地基GPS大气可降水量(precipitable water vapor,PWV)反演原理。利用GAMIT软件解算IGS站数据得到PWV,用逐时分析PWV的方法研究了武汉市一月份大雾生成和消散各个阶段能见度的变化。通过分析大雾过程中PWV的变化,确定大雾所处的阶段;同时对比了一月份雾天和晴天、雨天的PWV数据,分析了雨天和雾天的湿度、温度、露点的变化特点。研究结果表明武汉地区大雾的形成是多种因素综合作用的结果。     

3D water-vapor tomography with Shanghai GPS network to improve forecasted moisture field

THE VERTICAL PROFILE OF WATER VAPOR IS VERY IMPORTANT FOR REVISING AND IMPROVING THE INITIAL MOISTURE FIELD OF MID-SCALE NUMERICAL WEATHER MODEL. AT PRESENT, THE THREE-DIMENSIONAL (3D) INFORMATION OF WATER VAPOR IS PROVIDED MAINLY BY RADIOSONDE. HOWEVER, …     

两次不同类型降水中GPS水汽特征对比分析

通过对2008年7月14-15日的稳定性区域暴雨天气过程以及2008年6月25-26日的对流性强降水中GPS水汽体现出的特征进行分析,结果表明：GPS水汽在稳定性降水中对实际预报具有较好的指示性能,可以用来区分潮湿气团与干燥气团.当大气达到高湿条件,可降水量增长到顶点,即预示未来4-5h会有降水出现;当可降水量（PWV）≥50 mm的持续时间越长,实况降水量越大.在6月25-26日的雷暴降水中,受中小尺度天气系统影响,PWV曲线起伏剧烈,局地性特征明显,但与降水量级以及降水起止时间并无明显联系,对未来降水预报所起意义不大.     

GPS radio occultation: A potential new data source for improvement of antarctic pressure field

Radio occultation technique, first demonstrated by the GPS/MET experiment in 1995[1], has the potential to provide improved spatial and temporal resolution in the probing of the Earth's neutral atmosphere, including pressure,temperature and water vapor profiles, in addition to traditional measurements (e.g.,radiosonde, spaceborne radiometers) and ground-based GPS networks for precipitable water vapor (PWV) measurements. This paper provides an overview of the radio occultation concept and retrieval procedure and current technical limitations including lower troposphere inhomogeneities, signal penetration, multipath, and water vapor ambiguity. The current limitations using atmospheric model pressure fields (ECMWF and NCEP) for the modeling of atmospheric mass load over Antarctica, for its separation from climate sensitive signals observed by gravity mapping satellite,GRACE, are quantified. Atmospheric pressure fields over Antarctica are poorly known and higher temporal variability of pressure causes an "aliasing" error in GRACE-observed climate-sensitive signals such as hydrology, mass balance and oceanic mass variations. In particular, comparison of ECMWF 6-hour data with the Automatic Weather Station (AWS) in Antarctica indicates mean differences of 5 hPa,and rms of 1.7 hPa, exceeding the accuracy requirement for GRACE. Aliasing effec tmanifests as high-frequency errors in GRACE-observed gravity signals and are more pronounced over Antarctica. The possibility of using current operating satellite(SAC-C, CHAMP and GRACE) occultation data to improve Antarctic surface pressure fields is proposed. Preliminary results indicate that in the absence of water vapor over Antarctica, retrieved CHAMP pressure profile agrees well with radiosonde data from Neumayer station, and that occultation signals reach near the surface.     

综合GPS和NCEP在区域降雨预报中的应用研究

利用GPS估计大气可降雨量（Precipitable Water Vapor,PWV）时,除了需要GPS观测数据外,还需要对相应的GPS测站进行气象观测.然而,我国多数GPS网是用于大地测量学的应用与研究,并未配备相应的气象传感器.针对这一情况,本文利用美国环境预报中心（NCEP）和国家大气研究中心（NCAR）联合推出的逐6h再分析资料,提出一种GPS测站附近无气象传感器时估算PWV的新方法.利用此方法对上海地区的GPS数据进行试验,结果证明,即使在GPS测站附近没有气象观测设备时,地基GPS气象学同样能够获得精度较高的PWV,可以用于区域降雨预报.     

舰船摇摆对舰载火箭初始扰动影响的多因素分析

为研究舰载火箭由于舰船摇摆而产生的过载对其发射时初始扰动产生的影响,设计虚拟正交试验来仿真计算舰载火箭在不同状态下的初始扰动,并通过多因素极差分析得到海况、迎浪角、发射仰角和发射装置在舰船甲板的安装位置4种影响因素对舰载火箭初始扰动的影响程度.仿真结果表明,4个因素对初始扰动的影响都不可忽略,对初始扰动影响程度由重到轻依次为发射仰角、海况、迎浪角和安装位置.     

Numerical simulation of topography effects on the “00.7” severe rainfall in Beijing

In an effort to study the severe rainfall event of 4?5th July 2000 in Beijing (with 24h accumulated precipitation of 240 mm), we perform numerical simulations to investigate this event using the MM5v3.6 model. The model is initialized with the MM5/WRF 3DVAR analysis, which incorporates the ground-based GPS precipitable water vapor, automatic and conventional meteorological observations in its assimilation step. For 24 h accumulated precipitation forecast, the threat scores are 0.72, 0.76, 0.67 and 0.63, for thresholds of 1, 5, 10, and 20 mm, respectively. Holding other factors unchanged, sensitivity experiments were conducted with different topographic resolutions of 110, 50 and 3.7 km to investigate the topographic effects on precipitation over the Beijing area. In these sensitivity experiments, we attempt to preserve the realistic orographic distribution in the model topography under the condition of keeping the dynamic-thermodynamic consistency of the initial model atmosphere to the extent possible. Results indicate that the unique topographic distribution and variations in the Beijing area play an important role in determining the location, distribution and intensity of heavy precipitation.     

Numerical simulation of topography effects on the "00.7" severe rainfall in Beijing

In an effort to study the severe rainfall event of 4-5th July 2000 in Beijing (with 24h accumulated precipitation of 240 mm), we perform numerical simulations to investigate this event using the MM5v3.6 model. The model is initialized with the MM5/WRF 3DVAR analysis, which incorporates the ground-based GPS precipitable water vapor, automatic and conventional meteorological observations in its assimilation step. For 24 h accumulated precipitation forecast, the threat scores are 0.72, 0.76, 0.67 and 0.63, for thresholds of 1, 5, 10, and 20 mm, respectively. Holding other factors unchanged, sensitivity experiments were conducted with different topographic resolutions of 110, 50 and 3.7 km to investigate the topographic effects on precipitation over the Beijing area. In these sensitivity experiments, we attempt to preserve the realistic orographic distribution in the model topography under the condition of keeping the dynamic-thermodynamic consistency of the initial model atmosphere to the extent possible. Results indicate that the unique topographic distribution and variations in the Beijing area play an important role in determining the location, distribution and intensity of heavy precipitation.     

内孔式旋转空化发生器的数值计算研究

采用数值计算方法研究了内孔式旋转空化发生器的空化机理,并讨论了不同孔结构对其空化流动的影响.研究结果表明:当孔内压力降低到水的饱和蒸汽压时,孔内将发生剧烈空化现象;孔内存在明显的水汽交界面,由于转子的高速旋转,交界面附近水汽交换显著;结构参数中孔深L、孔径D和孔倾角α对空化区域大小及水汽交换效果有显著的影响,在转速为2 850 r/min的条件下,孔倾角为30º,孔径为23 mm,孔深为35 mm时空化和水汽交换效果最好.