基于超快速星历的数值天气预报可行性研究

为实时获取高时空分辨率的大气水汽场,基于地基GPS遥感大气水汽原理,结合香港CORS网的实测数据进行处理,根据大气可降水量(PWV)解算过程中超快速星历预报部分的时间跨度不同,设计了3个方案,并比较了各方案中最终精密星历、超快速星历和探空资料解算得到的PWV序列。结果表明,利用超快速星历估计PWV与最终精密星历结果一致,其精度满足气象预报等实时业务的要求。

Study on feasibility of numerical weather forecasting using ultra-rapid ephemeris

In order to obtain a real-time atmospheric water vapor field of high temporal and spatial resolution, based on the principle of remote sensing of atmospheric precipitable water vapor(PWV)using a ground-based GPS, the observed data at certain stations in the Hong Kong CORS network were processed. According to the different time spans in calculating PWV with ultra-rapid ephemeris, three schemes were designed. In each scheme, PWV data calculated with final precise ephemeris, ultra-rapid ephemeris, and radiosonde data were compared. The results show that the predicted PWV data of the ultra-rapid ephemeris agree with those of the final precise ephemeris, and its accuracy satisfies the requirements of real-time service, such as weather forecasting.