服务接包同业企业合作研发伙伴选择分析

基于双寡头博弈模型,根据接包同业企业双方是否具有独立研发能力,分别探讨了在双方均可独立研发的合作、仅一方可独立研发的合作、双方均不可独立研发的合作这三种不同合作态势下接包企业研发伙伴选择的策略,进一步将不可独立研发的原因细分为研发能力弱与资金能力弱的情况加以区别分析,并且结合对合作双方企业市场能力的比较,最终得出:当双方均可独立研发时,伙伴选择取决于研发能力与市场能力的比较;仅一方可独立研发时,不可独立研发一方研发能力强而资金能力弱时,则可以合作;双方均不可独立研发时,研发资源能达成互补并满足研发要求,才能实现合作。     

同心圆截面结构低温/高温超导混杂导体绝热和动态稳定性的定性分析

超导体的I-V特性通常采用幂指数形式描述,在幂指数特性中,具有高n值的超导体从超导态向正常态的转变较快.通有较高电流时,n值小的超导体的电压低于n值大的超导体,因而其暂态特性对超导体稳定性有很大影响.此外,为了提高稳定性,传统的超导体通常由纯低温超导体（LTS）和电阻率低、热导率高的金属或合金复合而成,通常基超比大于10,这样降低了工程临界电流密度.基于以上特性,本文提出了一种新的由低温超导体（LTS）和高温超导体（HTS）构成的混杂导体模型.在混杂导体中,HTS和LTS同轴,且HTS涂层包裹在LTS外面.传统的超导体绝热、动态稳定性通常由基于Bean临界态模型的2个经典的稳定判据来表述,由于混杂导体同时由LTS和HTS两种超导体组成.根据幂指数模型,考虑临界电流和n值等因素的影响,对经典的判据进行了修正并进行了定性分析,求得了混杂导体的绝热和动态稳定判据.此外,在假定LTS的临界电流Ic1远大于HTS的临界电流Ic2的前提条件下,对具有相同截面的传统超导体（NbTi/Cu）和混杂导体的绝热、动态稳定判据值作了比较.结果表明在总临界电流相同的条件下,混杂导体的绝热和动态稳定判据值大于NbTi/Cu导体（如当Ic1～9Ic2时,混杂导体的绝热和动态稳定判据值超过纯NbTi/Cu导体的2.5倍）,这意味着相比传统超导体（NbTi/Cu）,混杂导体的动态和绝热稳定性得到了大大提高.从定性分析角度出发,得到的结果为混杂导体在高场超导磁体（〉9T）中的潜在应用提供了重要的理论依据.     

逆向射流火焰稳定机理的研究

在实验的基础上，较深入地探索了逆向射流的火焰稳定机理。通过试验，建立了火焰稳定极限时主流速度Ｖｍ，逆向射流速度Ｖｊ，逆向射流与主流速度比Ｊ和燃料空气当量比Φ之间的准则关系；证实了临界区的存在及其在火焰稳定中的作用；测量了燃烧时流场中的温度分布状况。从流体力学及燃烧理论的基本概念出发，建立了逆向射流火焰稳定的临界区均匀搅拌反应器模型，并以此为基点，最终得到了与试验结果基本一致的逆向射流的火焰稳定准则     

带隔板底水气藏不完善井临界产量及水锥高度计算方法

以往的带隔板底水气藏临界产量计算公式大多只考虑了气井底部刚好位于隔板顶端的情况,忽略了打开程度的影响。本文基于多孔介质中质点渗流规律和气体稳定流动及水锥稳定条件,推导带隔板底水气藏不完善井临界产量公式,并分析打开程度对临界产量的影响;通过分区计算临界产量,得到各区临界产量与总临界产量的关系,进而推导出带隔板底水气藏水锥高度的计算公式。该临界产量公式考虑了打开程度和表皮系数的影响;水锥高度计算公式考虑了气井产量对隔板上下区块水锥高度的影响。实例计算表明,考虑了打开程度和表皮系数的临界产量公式和水锥高度计算公式更符合实际情况,对带隔板底水气藏的合理生产具有一定指导作用。     

球状晶体的演化和形态稳定性

建立了在过冷熔体中包括表面能、界面动力学和远场来流的球状晶体生长模型, 研究了在小的远场来流引起的熔体对流对球状晶体界面的演化和形态稳定性的影响, 导出了受远场来流作用的界面表达式和扰动振幅的变化率满足的色散关系. 结果表明: 远场来流导致的对流使得正在生长的球状晶体的界面在迎风方向加速生长, 在背风方向减缓生长; 正在衰减的球状晶体的界面在迎风方向加速衰减, 在背风方向减缓衰减. 迎面来流的方向球状晶体的生长和背向来流的方向球状晶体的萎缩使得球状晶体倾向于演变为卵形. 理论结果证实了熔体的对流促进球状晶体的生长和衰减; 界面的稳定性取决于球状晶体半径的某个值, 使得当球状晶体的半径超过临界值Rc时, 球状晶体的生长是不稳定的; 当半径低于临界值Rc时, 球状晶体的生长是稳定的; 表面能和界面动力学系数对于球状晶体的生长有强烈的稳定作用. 同时当界面生长时, 界面动力学系数是界面的稳定性因素; 当界面衰减时, 它是界面的不稳定性因素.     

复合材料瞬态热性能的简便计算方法及其适用条件

定义了复合材料的掺混度,探讨了利用有效导温系数计算复合材料热性能的条件,结果表明,对给定的精度要求,复合材料存在一临界掺混度,当复合材料的混合程度满足此临界条件时,可以利用有效导温系数的概念和合材料的内的逐时温度分布和通过它的逐时流密度,对于许多实际问题,上述方法可大大简化分析与计算。     

混凝土坝裂缝转异诊断的顺序典型小概率法

裂缝是混凝土坝不可避免的病害,其稳定与否是关系到混凝土坝结构安全的关键因素.基于裂缝开度与裂缝尖端张开位移之间的函数关系,提出了混凝土坝裂缝转异诊断的临界裂缝开度准则,并探讨了该准则所需的裂缝尖端张开位移和裂缝亚临界扩展量的确定方法.借助裂缝开度监控模型将临界裂缝开度准则进行转化,并与大坝安全监控中裂缝的原位监测资料-裂缝开度联系起来,建立了混凝土坝裂缝转异诊断的顺序典型小概率法.实例分析表明,顺序典型小概率法实现了临界裂缝开度准则在大坝安全监控中的具体应用,是合理可行的.     

金属纳米晶的相稳定性

根据热力学平衡条件, 建立了金属纳米晶的相平衡方程. 应用Fetch和Wagner的界面膨胀模型以及Smith和其合作者建立的普适状态方程, 对纳米晶界面的热力学量进行计算, 由此获得金属高温相可在较低的温度下存在的临界尺寸. 通过对元素Co的β相(fcc结构)和α相(hcp结构)纳米晶Gibbs自由能的计算表明, β相可在室温存在的临界尺寸和纳米晶界面处的过剩体积(ΔV)有关. 当ΔV 取10%时, β相应在35 nm以下稳定存在. 与Katakimi的实验较为符合. 对影响βCo稳定性的因素也作了讨论.     

大展弦比飞机几何非线性气动弹性稳定性的线性化方法

基于动力学小扰动假设建立了具有大展弦比机翼柔性飞机的全机几何非线性气动弹性稳定性分析的线性化方法和工程求解流程,并通过复杂算例验证了该方法的工程适用性.对某高空长航时无人机,计算了飞机在平飞设计载荷以及阵风载荷作用下的非线性静变形,在对应的非线性平衡态下对全机进行动力学线性化,计算了考虑静态大变形因素的全机固有振动特性,采用偶极子格网法计算了非定常气动力,进一步分析了全机的气动弹性稳定性,并与传统线性计算结果进行了对比研究.计算结果表明,由于结构大变形引起的几何非线性会引起机翼面内弯曲和扭转的运动耦合,改变相应模态的频率和振型,从而影响气动弹性耦合关系,降低颤振临界速度.传统的线性方法不但不能得到准确的颤振临界速度,而且有可能给出错误的稳定性结论.因此,对于具有大展弦比机翼的高空长航时无人机,以及类似的大柔性飞行器,必须在其设计过程中进行几何非线性气动弹性稳定性分析.     

重力波波包在临界层附近的传播

应用二维可压大气线性与全非线性数值模型, 模拟了重力波波包在临界层附近的传播. 对线性传播的波包来说, 临界层相互作用与线性理论描述非常一致. 大初始振幅尽管会使对流不稳定条件在传播过程中得到满足, 但波包并不会因此变得不稳定. 在无风背景中, 重力波波包的位能和动能可以自由转化. 在进入切变风场后, 在线性传播中这种转化将立即停止; 而非线性传播过程中该转化仍将继续. 非线性作用显著改变了背景平均流, 减小了波包的动量和能量传输速度, 降低了临界层高度; 并使得波包的部分区域变得不稳定, 破碎成更小尺度运动. 波破碎首先消耗动能. 在破碎发展到一定程度后, 位能也开始损耗. 这表明, 是剪切不稳定首先导致了波破碎的发生.     

Discount weighted estimation

The parsimonious method of exponentially weighted regression (EWR) is attractive but limited in application because it depends upon just one discount factor. This paper generalizes the EWR approach to a method called discount weighted estimation (DWE) which allowed distinct model components to have different associated discount factors. The method includes EWR as a special case. The general non-limiting recurrence relationships will be useful in practice, especially when practitioners wish to specify prior information, to intervene with subjective judgement and to derive estimates and forecasts sequentially based upon limited data. Two theorems extend the important EWR limiting results of Dobbie and McKenzie to DWE. The latter permits the derivation of a large class of known processs for which DWE is optimal. The method is illustrated by two applications, one of which uses the famous international airline passenger data. This allows a comparision with the ICI MULDO system which uses a particular two discount factor forecasting method. A companion paper extends the discount methods to Bayesian forecasting, Kalman filtering and state space modelling.     

Does the miracle argument embody a base rate fallacy?

One way to reconstruct the miracle argument for scientific realism is to regard it as a statistical inference: since it is exceedingly unlikely that a false theory makes successful predictions, while it is rather likely that an approximately true theory is predictively successful, it is reasonable to infer that a predictively successful theory is at least approximately true. This reconstruction has led to the objection that the argument embodies a base rate fallacy: by focusing on successful theories one ignores the vast number of false theories some of which will be successful by mere chance.In this paper, I shall argue that the cogency of this objection depends on the explanandum of the miracle argument. It is cogent if what is to be explained is the success of a particular theory. If, however, the explanandum of the argument is the distribution of successful predictions among competing theories, the situation is different. Since the distribution of accidentally successful predictions is independent of the base rate, it is possible to assess the base rate by comparing this distribution to the empirically found distribution of successful predictions among competing theories.     

Kuhnian theory-choice and virtue convergence: Facing the base rate fallacy

Perhaps the strongest argument for scientific realism, the no-miracles-argument, has been said to commit the so-called base rate fallacy. The apparent elusiveness of the base rate of true theories has even been said to undermine the rationality of the entire realism debate. On the basis of the Kuhnian picture of theory choice, I confront this challenge by arguing that a theory is likely to be true if it possesses multiple theoretical virtues and is embraced by numerous scientists–even when the base rate converges to zero.     

Greek astronomical calendars I. The parapegma of Euctemon

Summary In view of the striking similarities noted in the subsection A, B, C we are bound to conclude that Euctemon was influenced by Babylonian astronomy. However, his parapegma was not just a translation of a Babylonian text: it was an improvement in many respects. His dates of annual risings and settings were more accurate than the Babylonian dates. In most cases he recorded true risings, or he recorded both the true and the visible phaenomena. This distinction is not made in the text MUL APIN.     

Why do regime‐switching models forecast so badly?

Most non‐linear techniques give good in‐sample fits to exchange rate data but are usually outperformed by random walks or random walks with drift when used for out‐of‐sample forecasting. In the case of regime‐switching models it is possible to understand why forecasts based on the true model can have higher mean squared error than those of a random walk or random walk with drift. In this paper we provide some analytical results for the case of a simple switching model, the segmented trend model. It requires only a small misclassification, when forecasting which regime the world will be in, to lose any advantage from knowing the correct model specification. To illustrate this we discuss some results for the DM/dollar exchange rate. We conjecture that the forecasting result is more general and describes limitations to the use of switching models for forecasting. This result has two implications. First, it questions the leading role of the random walk hypothesis for the spot exchange rate. Second, it suggests that the mean square error is not an appropriate way to evaluate forecast performance for non‐linear models. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Experimental economics' inconsistent ban on deception

According to what I call the ‘argument from public bads’, if a researcher deceived subjects in the past, there is a chance that subjects will discount the information that a subsequent researcher provides, thus compromising the validity of the subsequent researcher's experiment. While this argument is taken to justify an existing informal ban on explicit deception in experimental economics, it can also apply to implicit deception, yet implicit deception is not banned and is sometimes used in experimental economics. Thus, experimental economists are being inconsistent when they appeal to the argument from public bads to justify banning explicit deception but not implicit deception.     

Proposition II (Book I) of Newton’s <Emphasis Type="Italic">Principia</Emphasis>

After preparing the way with comments on evanescent quantities and then Newton’s interpretation of his second law, this study of Proposition II (Book I)— Proposition II Every body that moves in some curved line described in a plane and, by a radius drawn to a point, either unmoving or moving uniformly forward with a rectilinear motion, describes areas around that point proportional to the times, is urged by a centripetal force tending toward that same point. —asks and answers the following questions: When does a version of Proposition II first appear in Newton’s work? What revisions bring that initial version to the final form in the 1726 Principia? What, exactly, does this proposition assert? In particular, what does Newton mean by the motion of a body “urged by a centripetal force”? Does it assert a true mathematical claim? If not, what revision makes it true? Does the demonstration of Proposition II persuade? Is it as convincing, for example, as the most convincing arguments of the Principia? If not, what revisions would make the demonstration more persuasive? What is the importance of Proposition II, to the physics of Book III and the mathematics of Book I?     

On detecting and estimating a major level or slope change in general exponential smoothing

Exponential smoothing methods do not adapt well to a major level or slope change. In this paper, Bayesian statistical theory is applied to the dynamic linear model, altered by inclusion of dummy variables, and statistics are derived to detect such changes and to estimate both the change-point and the size. The paper also gives test statistics for such problems related to exponential smoothing. The statistics are simple functions of exponentially weighted moving averages of the forecast errors, using the same discount factor used in the exponential smoothing. Gardner has derived an approximate test statistic to detect a mean change in the constant mean model. When the present results are applied to this model they give the exact statistic.     

构造应力场对煤层巷道围岩稳定性影响的数值模拟

为了研究向斜构造应力场对煤层巷道围岩稳定性的影响，运用Phase2软件对巷道布置在向斜构造中不同位置时的稳定性进行了数值模拟分析.分析得知巷道位于向斜轴部时较位于两翼时围岩稳定性差。对此，提出在以后布置巷道时应根据地应力的显现规律，尽量避免巷道布置在向斜轴部处。     

国际科技合作中知识转移风险的研究

随着科技全球化的发展和深入，国际科技合作成为各国政府和科研机构提升自身科研水平和核心竞争力的有力途径。然而，在国际科技合作中进行知识的转移与交流时，不可避免的面临着各种各样的风险，如何识别扣防范这些风险成为目前亟待解决的议题。有鉴于此，本文从知识、合作成员和环境三个维度，系统的对国际科技合作中的知识转移风险因素进行了分析，并据此进一步构建出相应的风险防范机制模型，力图为降低国际科技中的知识转移风险提供科学的理论依据。