Modelling and knowledge transfer in complexity science

I analyse the construction and transfer of models in complexity science. Thereby, I introduce a distinction between (i) vertical model construction, which is based on knowledge about a specific target system, (ii) horizontal model construction, which is based on the alteration of an existing model and therefore does not require any references to a specific target system; and (iii) the transfer of models, which consists of the assignment of an existing model to a new target system. I argue that, in complexity science, all three of those modelling activities take place. Furthermore, I show that these activities can be divided into two general categories: (i) the creation of a repository of models without specific target systems, which have been created by large-scale horizontal construction; and (ii) the transfer of these models to particular target systems in the natural sciences, which can also be followed by an extension of the transferred model through vertical construction of adaptions and additions to its dynamics. I then argue that this interplay of different modelling activities in complexity science provides a mechanism for the transfer of knowledge between different scientific fields. It is also crucial to the interdisciplinary nature of complexity science.     

The intelligibility of motion and construction: Descartes’ early mathematics and metaphysics, 1619-1637

I argue for an interpretation of the connection between Descartes’ early mathematics and metaphysics that centers on the standard of geometrical intelligibility that characterizes Descartes’ mathematical work during the period 1619 to 1637. This approach remains sensitive to the innovations of Descartes’ system of geometry and, I claim, sheds important light on the relationship between his landmark Geometry (1637) and his first metaphysics of nature, which is presented in Le monde (1633). In particular, I argue that the same standard of clear and distinct motions for construction that allows Descartes to distinguish ‘geometric’ from ‘imaginary’ curves in the domain of mathematics is adopted in Le monde as Descartes details God’s construction of nature. I also show how, on this interpretation, the metaphysics of Le monde can fruitfully be brought to bear on Descartes’ attempted solution to the Pappus problem, which he presents in Book I of the Geometry. My general goal is to show that attention to the standard of intelligibility Descartes invokes in these different areas of inquiry grants us a richer view of the connection between his early mathematics and philosophy than an approach that assumes a common method is what binds his work in these domains together.     

二元量子码的截短码和扩展码的构造

本文提出了一类从包含其对偶码的经典线性码[n，k，d]2到纯量子码[In—i，2k—n＋i，d—i]]2（0≤i≤d-2）和[[n＋1，2k-n-1，d＋1]]2（或№＋1，2k-n-1，d]]2）的基于矩阵初等变换的构造方法．基于初等代数理论，设计了其构造体系；基于检验矩阵与线性码最小距离之间的关系，分析了其纠错性能：基于稳定子体系，构建了其编译码网络．该方法正确可行的构造性证明简单，易懂，易于计算机及各种硬件系统实现．理论结果显示出该方法对一类量子码的构造非常实用．     

Reflections on Kant’s concept (and intuition) of space

In this paper, I investigate an important aspect of Kant’s theory of pure sensible intuition. I argue that, according to Kant, a pure concept of space warrants and constrains intuitions of finite regions of space. That is, an a priori conceptual representation of space provides a governing principle for all spatial construction, which is necessary for mathematical demonstration as Kant understood it.     

基于经典Goppa码的非对称量子稳定子码构造

自从Calderbank等人建立了从经典纠错码构造量子纠错码的CRSS构造法以来，人们利用经典纠错码构造了大量的性能良好的量子纠错码，称为量子稳定子码．最近的物理实验表明，大多数量子力学系统中发生量子比特翻转错误的概率远小于量子相位翻转错误的概率，针对这一情况所构造的纠错码称为非对称量子纠错码．本文分别基于嵌套包含Goppa码与对偶包含Goppa码构造了一系列新的非对称量子稳定子码．在基于嵌套包含Goppa码构造非对称量子码时，首先对Goppa码的选取做一定的限制．以便解析构造量子码．对于一般情况下的构造，则是借助于数学软件Matlab计算Goppa码对偶码的最小距离进行的．在基于对偶包含Goppa码的构造中，所构造量子码的纠错能力主要体现在纠正Z类型错误上．     

Rehabilitating theory: refusal of the ‘bottom-up’ construction of scientific phenomena

In this paper I inquire into Bogen and Woodward’s (1988) data/phenomena distinction, which in a similar way to Cartwright’s construal of the model of superconductivity (1995)—although in a different domain—argues for a ‘bottom-up’ construction of phenomena from data without the involvement of theory. I criticise Bogen and Woodward’s account by analysing their melting point of lead example in depth, which is usually cited in the literature to illustrate the data/phenomenon distinction. Yet, the main focus of this paper lies on Matthias Kaiser’s (1995) case study of the plate tectonic revolution, the most extensive case study that has been put forth to support the bottom-up construction of phenomena. On the basis of new historical evidence, which has been overlooked not only by Kaiser but also by the entire historical literature on the plate tectonic revolution, I demonstrate that phenomena are not constructed from the bottom-up but rather, admittedly counter-intuitively, from the top-down.     

The Pontifex Minimus: William Willcocks and Engineering British Colonialism

Sir William Willcocks (1852–1933) was a prominent British irrigation engineer who served in various British colonies. Best known as the chief designer of the Old Aswan Dam, Willcocks was born and trained in India, achieved prominence with his contribution to the development of centralized and perennial irrigation in Egypt, and was hired at the end of his career by the Ottomans to restore the ancient irrigation works of Mesopotamia (which was then on the verge of being acquired by the British). In this article, I follow Willcocks' voyages across the British Empire and show how hydraulic science moved from one colonial centre to another, and how this movement contributed to the construction and maintenance of colonialism on the ground. Often sent to newly acquired territories with ambitious projects to redesign the landscapes of property and agriculture, Willcocks and other engineers who gained their expertise in the colonies relied on lessons from their day-to-day struggle with the land and other social actors' competing agendas to develop the daily techniques that helped establish colonial rule. As the reception of Willcocks' work in London illustrates, it was in the metropole that engineers' practices were translated into a colonial symbolism that had large-scale technical systems as the right tools for the job of subordinating unruly waters and Nature writ large.     

Forecasting Inflation Across Euro Area Countries and Sectors: A Panel VAR Approach

In this paper, we adopt a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) approach to estimating and forecasting inflation dynamics in four different sectors—industry, services, construction and agriculture—across the euro area and its four largest member states: France, Germany, Italy and Spain. By modelling inflation together with real activity, employment and wages at the sectoral level, we are able to disentangle the role of unit labour costs and profit margins as the fundamental determinants of price dynamics on the supply side. In out‐of‐sample forecast comparisons, the PVAR approach performs well against popular alternatives, especially at a short forecast horizon and relative to standard VAR forecasts based on aggregate economy‐wide data. Over longer forecast horizons, the accuracy of the PVAR model tends to decline relative to that of the univariate alternatives, while it remains high relative to the aggregate VAR forecasts. We show that these findings are driven by the event of the Great Recession. Our qualitative results carry over to a multi‐country extension of the PVAR approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Guaranteed‐content prediction intervals for non‐linear autoregressions

In this paper we present guaranteed‐content prediction intervals for time series data. These intervals are such that their content (or coverage) is guaranteed with a given high probability. They are thus more relevant for the observed time series at hand than classical prediction intervals, whose content is guaranteed merely on average over hypothetical repetitions of the prediction process. This type of prediction inference has, however, been ignored in the time series context because of a lack of results. This gap is filled by deriving asymptotic results for a general family of autoregressive models, thereby extending existing results in non‐linear regression. The actual construction of guaranteed‐content prediction intervals directly follows from this theory. Simulated and real data are used to illustrate the practical difference between classical and guaranteed‐content prediction intervals for ARCH models. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

复杂软件系统的成长性构造与适应性演化

随着信息网络技术的渗透性发展,复杂软件系统正在成为一种泛在的新型软件形态.此类软件系统通常由相当数量的局部自治的软件系统相互耦合关联而成,具有"系统之系统"、"信息—物理"融合系统和"社会—技术"交融系统的特点,表现出成员异质、边界开放、行为涌现、持续演化等一系列新的性质.这些特征打破了传统基于"还原论"思想的软件工程理论和技术所基于的基本假设,使其难以适用于复杂软件系统的构建.本文分析复杂软件系统的内涵、形成特征和基本性质,深入讨论复杂软件系统在构造和演化环节所面临的挑战,借鉴互联网以及生命系统、社会系统和经济系统等复杂系统的形成和演进模式,提出复杂软件系统的"成长性构造"和"适应性演化"法则,阐述这两条法则所涉及的主要科学问题和关键支撑技术.本文试图为复杂软件系统的构建和发展提供新的方法学和架构层面的支持.     

Studies in Babylonian lunar theory: part III. The introduction of the uniform zodiac

This paper is the third of a multi-part examination of the Babylonian mathematical lunar theories known as Systems A and B. Part I (Britton, AHES 61:83–145, 2007) addressed the development of the empirical elements needed to separate the effects of lunar and solar anomaly on the intervals between syzygies, accomplished in the construction of the System A lunar theory early in the fourth century B.C. Part II (Britton, AHES 63:357–431, 2009) examines the accomplishment of this separation by the construction of a successful theory depicting the variations due to lunar anomaly in System A and its subsequent adaptation in System B. The present paper examines the introduction of the uniform zodiac, necessary for any theory depicting variations depending on the position of syzygy. It addresses three questions: (1) In light of all available evidence, what is the magnitude of the constant term in the expression Δλ* = C ? 1.3828°Y, describing the difference between the Babylonian sidereal longitudes and modern tropical longitudes? (2) What considerations governed the placement of the Babylonian sidereal zodiac relative to the fixed stars? (3) When was the uniform zodiac introduced? To the first question it finds C = 3.20° ± 0.1°, scarcely different from Huber’s (Centaurus 5:192–208, 1958) estimate of 3.08°, essentially confirming Huber’s result obtained from much less data. For the second it shows that accommodating the three asterisms comprising Taurus limited the placement of the zodiac to within 3°, while the prominence of half sign multiples among the measured intervals between prominent Normal Stars led irresistibly to the choice adopted. Finally, it finds that the zodiac was introduced between ?408 and ?397 and probably within a very few years of ?400.     

Technical note about simultaneous recording of oxygen partial pressure and neuronal activity in cat cortex

Summary A method is described for simultaneous measurements of pO₂ and action potentials with microelectrodes using prefabricated gold wires. The construction and measuring with such gold electrodes is easier than with traditionally used platinum electrodes. Single electrode recording is done with a specially adapted electronic circuit, allowing the separation of both signals (pO₂ and action potentials. A measurement in cat brain illustrates this procedure.     

One phenomenon, many models: Inconsistency and complementarity

The paper examines philosophical issues that arise in contexts where one has many different models for treating the same system. I show why in some cases this appears relatively unproblematic (models of turbulence) while others represent genuine difficulties when attempting to interpret the information that models provide (nuclear models). What the examples show is that while complementary models needn’t be a hindrance to knowledge acquisition, the kind of inconsistency present in nuclear cases is, since it is indicative of a lack of genuine theoretical understanding. It is important to note that the differences in modeling do not result directly from the status of our knowledge of turbulent flows as opposed to nuclear dynamics—both face fundamental theoretical problems in the construction and application of models. However, as we shall, the ‘problem context(s)’ in which the modeling takes plays a decisive role in evaluating the epistemic merit of the models themselves. Moreover, the theoretical difficulties that give rise to inconsistent as opposed to complementary models (in the cases I discuss) impose epistemic and methodological burdens that cannot be overcome by invoking philosophical strategies like perspectivism, paraconsistency or partial structures.     

The dynamics of reason and its elusive object in Kant, Fichte and Schelling

Kant used transcendental reflection to distinguish in judgment what belongs to its form and what to its material. Regarding the form of judgment, Buchdahl’s work highlights the analogies between the different levels of judgment in Kant’s transcendental ontology. He uses the explicit contingency of judgments of the system of nature to illuminate the contingency of judgments of objects in general. In the Critique of pure reason, Kant had left much of the work of judgment to the unconscious imagination. Fichte and Schelling attempted to make conscious and determinate the work of the unconscious imagination, but found themselves unable to avoid a reflexive regress in trying to objectify and provide a foundation for the activity of the self in judgment. Buchdahl also clarifies the role Kant gave to the object in judgment, as the indeterminate ‘thinghood’ remaining once all forms of cognition are abstracted. Fichte represented this objective side of consciousness as the not-I, as the limit of the activity of the I, as an unconscious, alien element within consciousness. Schelling struggled to illuminate this unconscious object in judgment, to provide a construction of nature, without dissolving its positive presence into abstract formulations. In pursuing relentlessly Kant’s critique of judgment, Fichte and Schelling exposed its opaque points and problematized the ambition to build a complete system of philosophy.     

Kuhn, Popper, and the Superconducting Supercollider

The demise of the Superconducting Supercollider (SSC) is often explained in terms of the strain that it placed on the federal budget of the United States, and change in national security interests with the end of the Cold War. Recent work by Steve Fuller provides a framework to re-examine this episode in epistemological terms using the work of Kuhn and Popper. Using this framework, it is tempting to explain the demise as resulting from the overly Kuhnian character of its proponents, who supposedly argued for its construction by appealing to the importance of testing the predictions of a specific paradigm (i.e. the Standard Model). On this reading, the SSC case appears as an example of how Kuhn’s paradigm-driven view of science was invoked to keep science closed and autonomous from society. I argue that the SSC episode should not be viewed as giving support to the displacement of Kuhn’s view of science for Popper’s, and that such a displacement is detrimental to the project of integrating discussion on science into the public sphere. Drawing upon Rouse and Wimsatt, I argue that understanding paradigms as practices blunts some criticisms against Kuhn’s model, and that his model should play an important epistemological role in the aforementioned project.     

Empirical factors and structure transference: Returning to the London account

We offer a framework to represent the roles of empirical and theoretical factors in theory construction, and examine a case study to illustrate how the framework can be used to illuminate central features of scientific reasoning. The case study provides an extension of French and Ladyman's (1997) analysis of Fritz and Heinz London's model of superconductivity to accommodate the role of the analogy between superconductivity and diamagnetic phenomena in the development of the model between 1935 and 1937. We focus on this case since it allows us to separate the roles of empirical and theoretical factors, and so provides an example of the utility of the approach that we have adopted. We conclude the paper by drawing on the particular framework here developed to address a range of concerns.     

From Cutting Nature at Its Joints to Measuring It: New Kinds and New Kinds of People in Biology

In the received version of the development of science, natural kinds are established in the preliminary stages (natural history) and made more precise by measurement (exact science). By examining the move from nineteenth- to twentieth-century biology, this paper unpacks the notion of species as ‘natural kinds’ and grounds for discourse, questioning received notions about both kinds and species. Life sciences in the nineteenth century established several ‘monster-barring’ techniques to block disputes about the precise definition of species. Counterintuitively, precision and definition brought dispute and disrupted exchange. Thus, any attempt to add precision was doomed to failure. By intervening and measuring, the new experimental biology dislocated the established links between natural kinds and kinds of people and institutions. New kinds were built in new places. They were made to measure from the very start. This paper ends by claiming that there was no long-standing ‘species problem’ in the history of biology. That problem is a later construction of the ‘modern synthesis’, well after the disruption of ‘kinds’ and kinds of people. Only then would definitions and precision matter. A new, non-linguistic, take on the incommensurability thesis is hinted at.     

浅论绿色无锡建设中的绿化仿生问题

本文分析了城市绿化建设中存在的共性问题及可采取的对策,从生态系统生物生产、物质循环、能量流动、信息传递以及构建和谐种群关系5个方面论述了城市绿化应以模拟自然生态系统结构与功能为途径,并指出提高城市绿化仿生水平是实现绿色无锡建设目标的关键.     

Inferential processes in the construction of scenarios

The process of scenario construction is not yet well understood. Procedures appeal to the ‘disciplined intuition’ of experts. From a psychological perspective, however, generating scenarios represents a most difficult cognitive task. Two cognitive functions involved in this task are discussed: forward inferences and backward inferences. Whereas forward inferences explore the implications of given options and help to identify potential consequences, backward inferences explore the implications of given goals and help identify potential options. The first process leads to an exploratory scenario, the second to an anticipatory scenario. It is argued that the two approaches, applied to the same problem, result in different scenarios, i.e. scenarios that differ in their elements, their structures, their ranges and their ‘holes’. A bi-directional construction method is suggested that balances the drawbacks implied in using one cognitive strategy only (e.g. forward inference) by using complementarily the other strategy (e.g. backward inference). In contrast to other methods proposed in the literature, this method is theoretically derived and can be tested empirically.