Cobb-Douglas函数模型参数估计方法的研究

根据LS估计理论，对目前Cobb—Douglas函数模型参数估计方法存在的问题进行了分析．通过方差稳定化变换建立了新的参数估计模型，新模型基本满足Gauss—Markov假定，保持了LS估计的优良性质．     

Singularity of software reliability models LVLM and LVQM

According to the principle, “The failure data is the basis of software reliabilityanalysis”, we built a software reliability expert system (SRES) by adopting the artificialtechnology. By reasoning out the conclusion from the fitting results of failure data of asoftware project, the SRES can recommend users “the most suitable model” as a softwarereliability measurement model. We believe that the SRES can overcome the inconsistency inapplications of software reliability models well. We report investigation results of singularity and parameter estimation methods of models, LVLM and LVQM. Foundation item: Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China Biography: Biography: XU Ren-zuo (1946-), male, Professor, Research interests include software engineering, software reliability engineering, software quality guarantee technology, reliability theory, software safety and security.     

Singularity of some software reliability models and parameter estimation method

According to the principle, “The failure data is the basis of software reliability analysis”, we built a software reliability expert system (SRES) by adopting the artificial intelligence technology. By reasoning out the conclusion from the fitting results of failure data of a software project, the SRES can recommend users “the most suitable model” as a software reliability measurement model. We believe that the SRES can overcome the inconsistency in applications of software reliability models well. We report investigation results of singularity and parameter estimation methods of experimental models in SRES. Foundation item: Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China Biography: XU Ren-zuo (1946-), male, Professor, research interests include software engineering software reliability engineering, software quality guarantee technology, reliability theory, software safety and security.     

A Modified Extended Bayesian Method for Parameter Estimation

This paper presents a modified extended Bayesian method for parameter estimation. In this method the mean value of the a priori estimation is taken from the values of the estimated parameters in the previous iteration step. In this way, the parameter covariance matrix can be automatically updated during the estimation procedure, thereby avoiding the selection of an empirical parameter. Because the extended Bayesian method can be regarded as a Tikhonov regularization, this new method is more stable than both the least-squares method and the maximum likelihood method. The validity of the proposed method is illustrated by two examples: one based on simulated data and one based on real engineering data.     

Trainable unit selection speech synthesis under statistical framework

This paper proposes a trainable unit selection speech synthesis method based on statistical modeling framework. At training stage, acoustic features are extracted from the training database and statistical models are estimated for each feature. During synthesis, the optimal candidate unit sequence is searched out from the database following the maximum likelihood criterion derived from the trained models. Finally, the waveforms of the optimal candidate units are concatenated to produce synthetic speech. Experiment results show that this method can improve the automation of system construction and naturalness of synthetic speech effectively compared with the conventional unit selection synthe- sis method. Furthermore, this paper presents a minimum unit selection error model training criterion according to the characteristics of unit selection speech synthesis and adopts discriminative training for model parameter estimation. This criterion can finally achieve the full automation of system con- struction and improve the naturalness of synthetic speech further.     

全向视觉中数据噪声对参数估计的影响

针对全向视觉中特有的数据特性,对图像中不同区域的数据噪声提出了不同假设,并在此假设下分析了数据噪声对线性参数估计的影响,研究表明,尽管远离图像中心区域的数据误差较大,但这些数据对参数估计的影响是非常大的.此外,还提出了一种分步选择数据点的方法,首先选择较高精度的数据得到初始参数估计值,然后逐步选择更多的数据点以保证得到尽可能多的数据点,而且所选择的数据点尽可能覆盖图像的边缘区域.实验结果表明,文章提出的方法可以得到更精确和更稳定的参数估计.     

Fractal dimension of voice-signal waveforms

The fractal dimension is one important parameter that characterizes waveforms. In this paper, we derive a new method to calculate fractal dimension of digital voice-signal waveforms. We show that fractal dimension is an efficient tool for speaker recognition or speech recognition. It can be used to identify different speakers or distinguish speech. We apply our results to Chinese speaker recognition and numerical experiment shows that fractal dimension is an efficient parameter to characterize individual Chinese speakers. We have developed a semiautomatic voiceprint analysis system based on the theory of this paper and former researches. Foundation item: Supported by the Special Funds for May State Basic Research Projects Biography: Xie Yu-qiong(1964-), female, Ph. D candidate, research direction: fractal geometry.     

反倾销中确定产业损害幅度的联立方程模型

基于国内外反倾销理论和实践,提出了反倾销产业损害幅度确定的联立方程,并研究了方程的变量选取、建立、参数估计、检验和计算结果.研究结果表明,该模型能够去掉除国外企业倾销商品以外其他变量的影响,进而得出具体的产业损害幅度.     

基于对称矩阵分解理论的AR模型参数算法

在分析AR模型的Y u le-W a lker方程和对称矩阵分解理论的基础上,提出基于对称矩阵分解理论的AM模型算法.该算法研究有关AR模型阶数p的选择,讨论AR模型的其它求法.仿真结果表明,改进算法的AR参数能有效提高频谱分辨率、改善方差性能、提高频谱估计的精度.     

基于IRT模型的BP神经网络参数估计的进一步研究

对基于 IRT 模型的 BP 神经网络降维法参数估计中的 BP 神经网络的网络隐层数及隐层节点数进行改进,并对其降维法中不合理的部分予以修正。通过蒙特卡洛模拟研究结果表明:对参数估计的各评价指标,改进的方法均优于原方法。     

Using evolutionary computation to solve problems in nonparametric regression

This paper studies evolutionary mechanism of parameter selection in the construction of weight function for Nearest Neighbour Estimate in nonparametric regression. Construct an algorithm which adaptively evolves fine weight and makes good prediction about unknown points. The numerical experiments indicate that this method is effective. It is a meaningful discussion about practicability of nonparametric regression and methodology of adaptive model-building. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation and 863 High Technology Project of China Ding Lixin: born in 1967, Ph.D. graduate student     

一种尺度参数的确定方法

密度函数的小波估计中,尺度参数的选择是最关键的问题,如果尺度参数选择大小,则受噪声影响比较大.如果尺度参数选择过大,虽然密度函数估计较好,但密度估计的曲线大幅振荡.通过在多维空间中,基于小波的多分辨分析理论对多变量密度函数进行的小波估计,提出了利用Fisher信息来确定尺度参数的新方法.     

等级反应模型的Gibbs抽样方法

探讨了MCMC算法在多级评分项目反应模型参数估计中的实现及其估计精度.针对等级反应模型,基于数据扩充技术,提出了一种高效灵活的Gibbs抽样方法,得到了各个参数的Markov链.随着潜在变量的引入,每个参数的满条件分布为相应参数的先验分布的截断分布.这种抽样方法适用于任何类型的先验分布,不受先验分布形式的约束.对应每个...     

Using evolutionary computation to solve problems in nonparametric regression

This paper studies evolutionary mechanism of parameter selection in the construction of weight function for Nearest Neighbour Estimate in nonparametric regression. Construct an algorithm which adaptively evolves fine weight and makes good prediction about unknown points. The numerical experiments indicate that this method is effective. It is a meaningful discussion about practicability of nonparametric regression and methodology of adaptive model-building. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation and 863 High Technology Project of China Ding Lixin: born in 1967, Ph.D. graduate student     

基于变分模态分解的弹性参数核密度估计方法

概率密度建模是地震随机模拟中至关重要的环节,而弹性参数高频成分的概率密度估计决定了高分辨率地震随机模拟结果的精度。针对常规方法中弹性参数高频成分提取精度不足、概率密度建模先验条件过度约束以及弹性参数的概率密度建模分层设计等问题,提出了一种基于变分模态分解（variational mode decomposition, VMD）的弹性参数核密度估计方法。该方法首先采用VMD对测井弹性参数数据进行模态分解,筛选出本征模态函数（intrinsic mode function, IMF）中的高频项叠加得到测井弹性参数的高频成分;然后使用核密度估计分层计算得到高频成分的概率密度模型,并通过该模型进行随机抽样生成随机高频成分叠加至井旁地震数据上以达到丰富地震弹性参数数据高频内容的目的。珠江口盆地34号井区的实验结果显示,VMD有效分离出了中心频率在70 Hz以上的测井弹性参数高频成分,分层设计的核密度估计方法凸显了高频成分的统计规律,叠加随机高频成分后地震弹性参数70 Hz以上的高频成分得到了明显补充。该方法为地震高分辨率随机模拟提供了新的思路。     

多元广义岭估计确定偏参数的两种准则

本文给出广义岭估计β（Ｋ）的偏参数Ｋ选择的Ｄ（Ｑ）准则和均方误差无偏估计的极小化准则,以及偏参数Ｋ的最优解公式．它使广义岭估计β（Ｋ）的均方误差（ＭＳＥ）明显小于 ＬＳ估计β的 ＭＳＥ．从而提高了广义岭估计的拟合精确度．最后给出一实例．     

非线性回归模型线性化后的参数估计精度问题

根据LS估计理论,对非线性回归模型线性化后参数估计精度存在的问题进行了分析,通过变量变换对线性化模型随机误差的方差进行了修正,建立了新参数估计模型.新参数估计模型满足Gauss-Markov假定,保持了LS估计的优良性质.     

基于语义提升HMM的语义标注

语义标注所用标签数目众多,训练数据更为稀疏,用HMM作语义标注面临参数估计不准的难题。不同于传统的解决数据稀疏方法,以《同义词词林》的层次式结构为依据,提出了利用语义层次的提升来改善HMM(hidden Markov model)中参数的估计质量;在算法实现中,采用选择受限策略来解决因语义提升而引起的模型辨别力下降问题。测试表明,在训练数据相对稀疏的情况下,适度调整模型的语义层次可大幅提高语义标注的精度,该方法表现出较好的可塑性。     

一种左心室压力个性化估计模型参数子集选择方法

针对模型估计左心室压力波形的临床个性化需求和大量参数优化计算复杂情况，提出基于灵敏度分析的模型参数子集选择策略.以左心室压力波形特征作为体循环模型的输出，通过自适应稀疏多项式混沌展开算法构建原始模型的元模型，改进索贝尔灵敏度指标计算，选出模型中对左心室压力波形特征有重要影响的参数作为参数子集.本文提出的选择策略可以为左心室压力波形估计中的模型参数临床个性化提供参考依据；参数子集中模型参数数量的减少，可以降低优化空间和参数求解的复杂度.实验结果表明，采用参数子集的左心室压力波形及特征估计与模型的全体参数估计具有很高的一致性.     

多层水泥结构吸波材料设计与测量技术研究

本文研究一种宽带多层水泥结构的吸波材料。通过在水泥材料中加入不同比例的石墨和铁磁粉末材料，并加工形成具有多层夹心结构的结构吸波材料。为了测量该结构吸波材料的等效电磁参数，我们进一步发展了与测量参考面无关的电磁参数测量方法，提出了一个用于参数提取的非线性方程，与原有的方程相比，该函数的数学性质更好，因而在迭代求解中会提高求解的收敛速度。其次，考虑迭代求解非线性方程过程中初值的选择问题，给出了针对该非线性方程的估计置信区域半径的公式。最后，针对该结构吸波材料进行了测量与等效电磁参数的分析计算，得到了有效介电常数和有效磁导率。