Does the miracle argument embody a base rate fallacy?

One way to reconstruct the miracle argument for scientific realism is to regard it as a statistical inference: since it is exceedingly unlikely that a false theory makes successful predictions, while it is rather likely that an approximately true theory is predictively successful, it is reasonable to infer that a predictively successful theory is at least approximately true. This reconstruction has led to the objection that the argument embodies a base rate fallacy: by focusing on successful theories one ignores the vast number of false theories some of which will be successful by mere chance.In this paper, I shall argue that the cogency of this objection depends on the explanandum of the miracle argument. It is cogent if what is to be explained is the success of a particular theory. If, however, the explanandum of the argument is the distribution of successful predictions among competing theories, the situation is different. Since the distribution of accidentally successful predictions is independent of the base rate, it is possible to assess the base rate by comparing this distribution to the empirically found distribution of successful predictions among competing theories.     

可移动可弯曲输送机转向油缸控制方法研究

以可移动可弯曲输送机为研究对象,对输送机转弯过程中油缸的控制方法进行探讨。建立整机虚拟样机后,依次记录牵引车转弯角度;计算牵引车轨迹;计算各转向油缸对应伸出时间与位移;控制器控制辅助转向;最后完成轨迹跟踪。仿真分析证明该控制方法正确可行。     

Die Wirkung energiereicher Strahlen auf die Atmungsfermentkette

Summary The irradiation sensitivity of the cytochrome system was investigated, using as examples baker's yeast andE. coli. A method is described with which the proportion of reduced cytochrome in cell suspensions could be measured spectrometrically. In contrast to isolated cytochrome, which is easily oxydized by Roentgen rays, the cytochrome of living cells is very stable to Roentgen rays. The electrone transport is not influenced by high energy rays. It is probable that the hydrogen transport is also undisturbed. Only if the cell is so damaged by high doses of rays that every exchange of substances is impossible, i.e. if the cell is dead, is the ferrocytochrome oxydized and perhaps also destroyed. The oxydation is thus a secondary process resulting from death of the cell by rays. It is supposed that the changes in energy metabolism described in the literature, especially the disturbances of oxydative phosphorylation, are also secondary processes.The concepts developed in radiochemistry on the action of high energy rays on organic compounds must therefore be especially tested in each case for their application in the living cell.     

Cell kinetics and radiation pathology

Conclusion Radiation pathology is a general term describing the damage that occurs in tissues after irradiation. After the very low doses, received by the normal working population, no major pathology is seen. There is a hazard of cancer induction if DNA damage that has been inflicted in an individual cell is repaired in such a way that the DNA remains intact but rearranged. This radiation carcinogenesis is however a low risk compared with many chemical carcinogens in the environment and in cancer chemotherapy.The treatment of cancer by radiation is now commonly accepted as one of the most effective forms of treatment. It can kill tumour cells effectively, but the dose that can be given is limited by the normal tissues that are inevitably included in the beam. Cell function is maintained for some time even after very large doses. However normal tissues show a loss of function and structure because the proliferating subcompartment of each tissue is depleted as the radiation injured cells fail to divide and die. The time at which the cell deficit is detected varies from hours in some tissues to months or years in others. It depends upon the normal rate of cell turnover. The apparent sensitivity of each tissue therefore depends upon the time at which the assessment is made. Lung and kidney would appear very resistant at 1–3 months post irradiation, but would seem very radiosensitive at 6–12 months as their latent damage is expressed.The ultimate expression of radiation pathology is the death of the whole animal as the essential organ function fails. The time of this death is only comprehensible if the time sequence and the proliferation kinetics of the target cells are taken into account. It must be recognised that it is initial damage to the clonogenic cells, not to the differentiated cells per se that is important.     

Simultaneity,convention, and gauge freedom

As is well known from Einstein (1905) the choice of a criterion for distant simultaneity is equivalent to stipulating one-way speeds for the transit of light. It is shown that any choice of non-standard synchrony is equivalent to a Lorentz local time boost. From this and considerations from the hole argument, it follows that there is a non-trivial sense in which distant simultaneity is conventional, at least to the extent that the “gauge freedom” arising in the hole argument is non-trivial.     

基于人眼状态识别的驾驶员疲劳检测方法研究

提出一种基于眼睛状态识别的驾驶员疲劳状态检测的方法。首先通过建立肤色模型分割出人脸区域,再利用搜索连通域的方法实现眼睛区域的定位;然后计算出眼睛区域的垂直积分投影曲线,提取并比较曲线的特征参数,从而识别眼睛的状态;最后以眼睛闭合时间比率为测量标准实现对驾驶员疲劳程度的检测。实验表明,该方法简单、有效、实时性较好,疲劳检测的正确率较高。     

简单导联的非侵入便携式胎儿心电监护系统研究

提出并验证了一种简单导联方式实现的非侵入便携式胎儿心电监护仪的设计方案:以仪表放大器AD8220为核心,构建了母体胸导心电信号和腹壁混合信号的调理电路;通过AD7658实现A/D转换;然后将所得数字信号送入DSP芯片TMS320F28335,井通过USB通信模块CP2101将得到的心电信号数据传送到PC机。设计出了基于径向基函数的神经网络模块;提取出清晰的胎儿心电信号;调用绘图函数实现信号的实时显示。     

Modifications de l'excitabilité des centres vasopresseurs hypothalamiques par des injections locales de catécholamines

Summary The blood pressure is not disturbed by a local injection of norepinephrine into the hypothalamus, but the excitability of vasopressor centres is affected. Often, the excitability of these centres is decreased; sometimes, it is increased, and, more rarely, it is first potentiated and then inhibited. Epinephrine has the same action, but dopamine is less potent; isoprenaline produces both facilitation and inhibition of these centres, but the facilitating effect is more frequent than with norepinephrine.     

Nuclear magnetic resonance studies of the hydration of proteins and DNA

The behaviour of water in the presence of proteins and DNA as elucidated by nuclear magnetic resonance is reviewed. The picture that emerges is that in dilute solution only those water molecules in the interior of the biopolymers or in clefts have their motions substantially affected. In concentrated systems the situation is more complicated because many more motions have to be considered, but there is no evidence of special effects due to the biopolymers being present. The case of nonfreezing water in protein solutions is considered, and it is suggested that this is not evidence for 'bound' water but simply due to the effects of the inhibition of protein precipitation.     

顺煤层水力割缝抽采煤层瓦斯渗流规律数值模拟

为得到顺煤层水力割缝抽采瓦斯渗流规律以及预测水力割缝后瓦斯气体抽采量,结合渗流力学和弹塑性力学理论,建立了水力割缝抽采煤层瓦斯的固流耦合数学模型,同时给出了相应初始条件及边界条件。利用Madab计算得到顺煤层水力割缝后煤体应力场、瓦斯压力场以及瓦斯抽采量变化规律。数值模拟结果显示：水力割缝后,煤体有效体积应力得到释放;沿割缝方向储层卸压效果明显;煤层内裂隙、裂缝数量增加,长度和张开度增大;煤体渗透性能增强;煤层气抽采量较普通钻孔有较大幅度的提高。模拟结果显示了顺煤层水力割缝抽采煤层气的优势。此模拟方法对煤层气增产工业中确定水力割缝工艺参数以及预测瓦斯产量具有重要的指导意义。     

知识创新的Markov控制模型研究

本文在已有的知识创新的相关理论基础上研究知识创新问题。完善了知识创新的机理模型，并对其进行了理论说明，指出知识创新的原理和作用；在对其机理分析的基础上，用Markov模型描述了企业的知识创新过程，分析了影响知识创新的关键因素——隐性知识；并提出了有关知识创新的相应策略框架。     

体外预应力加固钢筋混凝土梁式空心板桥的有限元分析

以内蒙古通辽市境内的公德屯桥为工程实例,通过静载荷试验说明桥梁需要加固,采用有限元程序ANSYS进行有限元建模研究和施加横向预应力的仿真计算,把均匀设计理论引入加固设计中.研究了各因素对挠度校验系数、应变校验系数的变化规律,综合考虑确定了优化设计方案.通过对加固前、后主梁跨中截面对比分析可知,采用施加横向预应力的方法来对钢筋混凝土空心板桥进行加固,能有效改善荷载横向分布情况,增加空心板结构间的横向联系,避免单板受力现象,且加固效果明显.     

The physiology of the smooth muscle: an interdisciplinary review—part II

Summary In the guinea pig taenia coli, when glycogen is depleted by repeating Ca-induced contracture in excess K solution containing no glucose, the tension cannot be maintained. The decrease in tension is accompanied by reduction of high energy phosphate compounds and oxygen consumption. When substrate is readmitted to the glycogendepleted preparation in the presence of 2.4 mM Ca and 20 mM K, the first response is hyperpolarization of the membrane and relaxation, and this is followed by depolarization and development of contracture. The latter response is blocked by verapamil, suggesting that energy supply increases the Ca conductance of the plasma membrane. The early response is considered to be due to activation of electrogenic Ca pump, since this is not affected by ouabain as well as removal of Na and K. ATP produced by substrate readmission is probably preferentially utilized for Ca pump activation to reduce the intracellular. Ca. The recovery of tension is likely to be brought about by ATP supply not only to the contractile machinery but also to the plasma membrane to remove inactivation of Ca conductance. It is postulated that as the energy source is depleted, energy consumption is automatically limited by suppressing Ca influx, as a selfdefence mechanism. Since HB is as effective as glucose in the recovery of these processes, and also in the activation of electrogenic Na pump, the matabolic pathway of oxidative phosphorylation alone can support these functions without a contribution of the glycolytic pathway.     

基于数字图像相关方法的剪切带宽度的影响因素分析

将粒子群优化算法引入到数字图像相关方法之中,利用两种相关系数公式,研究了样本子区的尺寸、相邻样本子区中心点在垂直于剪切带方向上的距离、最大迭代次数、剪切带宽度理论值和剪切带的剪切应变对剪切带宽度计算结果的影响.研究发现,随着样本子区尺寸的增加,剪切带宽度的测量结果越来越远离剪切带宽度的理论值；当剪切带的剪切应变较大时,随着样本子区尺寸的增加,剪切带宽度的计算结果变化较大；计算得到的剪切带的宽度通常都小于剪切带宽度的理论值,除非剪切带宽度的理论值或样本子区的尺寸取值较小时.     

Seeking representations of phenomena: Phenomenological models

A distinction is made between theory-driven and phenomenological models. It is argued that phenomenological models are significant means by which theory is applied to phenomena. They act both as sources of knowledge of their target systems and are explanatory of the behaviors of the latter. A version of the shell-model of nuclear structure is analyzed and it is explained why such a model cannot be understood as being subsumed under the theory structure of Quantum Mechanics. Thus its representational capacity does not stem from its close link to theory. It is shown that the shell model yields knowledge about the target and is explanatory of certain behaviors of nuclei. Aspects of the process by which the shell model acquires its representational capacity are analyzed. It is argued that these point to the conclusion that the representational status of the model is a function of its capacity to function as a source of knowledge and its capacity to postulate and explain underlying mechanisms that give rise to the observed behavior of its target.     

露天矿土-岩复合边坡形态优化及失稳机理研究

针对露天矿土-岩复合边坡构成及失稳破坏模式的复杂多样性,以依兰露天矿为研究背景,应用极限平衡分析法和强度折减法分别对采场、排土场及二者构成的土-岩复合边坡稳定性进行了分析,优化边坡最终形态,研究其滑坡模式与机制。结果表明：当采场边坡角41°,与排土场相距80m时,复合边坡达最优形态,边坡破坏模式为在自重力作用下,坡面向外蠕变引发的圆弧滑动;极限平衡法简单、可靠,其与强度折减法相结合可弥补各自的不足,结果可靠,便于复合边坡的优化设计。     

Possibility of metabolic control of membrane excitation

In the guinea pig taenia coli, when glycogen is depleted by repeating Ca-induced contracture in excess K solution containing no glucose, the tension cannot be maintained. The decrease in tension is accompanied by reduction of high energy phosphate compounds and oxygen consumption. When substrate is readmitted to the glycogen-depleted preparation in the presence of 2.4 mM Ca and 20 mM K, the first response is hyperpolarization of the membrane and relaxation, and this is followed by depolarization and development of contracture. The latter response is blocked by verapamil, suggesting that energy supply increases the Ca conductance of the plasma membrane. The early response is considered to be due to activation of electrogenic Ca pump, since this is not affected by ouabain as well as removal of Na and K. ATP produced by substrate readmission is probably preferentially utilized for Ca pump activation to reduce the intracellular Ca. The recovery of tension is likely to be brought about by ATP supply not only to the contractile machinery but also to the plasma membrane to remove inactivation of Ca conductance. It is postulated that as the energy source is depleted, energy consumption is automatically limited by suppressing Ca influx, as a self-defence mechanism. Since beta HB is as effective as glucose in the recovery of these processes, and also in the activation of electrogenic Na pump, the metabolic pathway of oxidative phosphorylation alone can support these functions without a contribution of the glycolytic pathway.     

基于CCII的一种双采样保持电路的研究与设计

本文设计了一种高性能双采样保持（DSH）电路,在165V的电源电压下,其性能满足12位精度、200MS／s转换速率的流水线型ADC的要求。设计中采用了轨到轨自偏置第二代电流传输器（CCII）提高了S／H电路的可靠性和线性度;采用双采样结构,使得在同样性能的CCII条件下,采样速率成倍提高;对于大带宽自偏置CCII,采用了两个电流跟随器降低了端口的寄生电阻。DSH电路的采样电压幅度达到2V,对于输入为20MHZ的正弦波,测得其平台稳定精度为89μV,平台稳定时间为1．05ns,噪声失真比（SNDR）达到了84dB,满足12位ADC的要求,整个电路的功耗约为3．41mW。     

On the physiology of metazoa

The problem of integration and control of the various processes of the metazoan organism is a major challenge to the physiologist. The traditional research strategy in dealing with the problem is neuron-oriented and its roots extend back into the last century when knowledge of hormones was lacking. In the present article, the traditional strategy is analyzed in the light of available data and its logical basis is questioned. Different levels of communication are supposed to occur in the animal or human body. Circulating hormones are responsible for the highest level of communication that occurs between organs or tissues. The central concept in the article is that regulation of circulating hormones constitutes a higher level of control relative to regulation of intercellular hormones. This is regardless of whether the latter occurs in the nervous system or elsewhere. The approach is utilized in defining the mechanism that integrates and controls the part processes of the body. The mechanism is defined as endothelial; the vascular endothelial system is the controlling part and the nervous system is one of the subordinate parts. Thanks to the new approach, meaningful biological explanations of major psychiatric disorders are now possible.     

非线性薄膜方程的差分迭代求解

对类似于非线性薄膜一类的非线性偏微分方程提出一种新的算法.该法首先略去非线性部分的影响,或给予非线性部分莱一初值,使非线性部分成为已知,从而将原非线性方程转化为线性方程,并按差分法或其它方法求得其线性解.再将所得线性解代入非线性部分使其成为已知,再次求得其解.这样反复迭代直至收敛,进而求得原非线性方程的非线性解.