西北地区暴雨时空变化及异常年夏季环流特征

利用中国西北地区248个观测站1981-2010年逐日降水量资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对西北地区暴雨的时空变化及环流异常特征进行了分析.结果表明:暴雨主要出现在陕西、甘肃东南部、宁夏东南部,暴雨出现次数依次由东南向西北减少.暴雨的年际差异较大,年内主要集中在7-8月,两个月的暴雨日数占全年的64%,7月最多,8月次之,区域性暴雨7月下旬最多.西北地区大范围暴雨过程偏多年份夏季(7月和8月),西太平洋副热带高压偏强,西脊点伸到110?E附近,亚洲中高纬度多低值系统活动,低层(700 hPa)来自南海的偏东气流与青藏高原南侧的偏西气流合并为偏南气流向北伸展到西北地区东部,将充沛的水汽输送到这一区域,到达35?N附近与西北气流相遇;反之,西北地区大范围暴雨过程偏少年份夏季(7月和8月),西太平洋副热带高压偏弱,远离大陆,亚洲高纬度多高值系统活动,低层是一支偏北气流控制西北地区东部.     

2009年青海海西地震序列的潜热通量异常时空特征

 采用美国国家环境预报中心（NCEP）的地表潜热通量资料,对2009年8月28日青海海西6.4级地震及其余震前的潜热变化过程进行分析发现,① 主震前6d,震中附近开始出现潜热异常,然后异常幅度增强、面积扩大,并向震中迁移;② 余震前也出现了明显的潜热异常,但其时空演化过程不同于主震前的潜热异常;③ 潜热异常位置与震中具有良好的空间对应关系,其中都兰余震前的潜热异常位置与震中位置重合。本案例分析表明,震前地表潜热异常应是地震孕育尤其是临震过程的一种典型的岩石圈-盖层-大气耦合（LCA）效应,进一步的研究有望揭示特定地震区震前及余震序列的潜热通量异常规律,有益于地震监测预报研究与防灾减灾。     

Community Climate Model 3气候模式在东亚季风区产生虚假降水的一种可能原因

通过分析NCAR CCM3气候模式的15年积分结果,从形成降水的垂直运动和水汽供应条件的角度,试图揭示该模式在东亚季风区产生不合理虚假强降水的可能原因.与观测的降水分布相比,CCM3模拟的东亚季风区降水中心位置偏西,雨量偏强,其中对流降水占虚假降水中心总降水量的82%左右.进一步分析发现,对流层上层200 hPa副热带急流南侧的散度季节变化与110°E以西的虚假降水季节变化具有较好的对应关系,急流入口区附近的直接垂直环流上升支位于青藏高原东北部,同时由于急流南侧对流层上层辐散引起的抽吸作用,加强低层的垂直运动,从而为虚假的强对流降水形成提供上升运动条件.分析对流层低层的水汽(比湿)分布和水汽输送表明,模拟的青藏高原地区大气的水汽含量比NCEP/NCAR再分析的水汽含量高,经过高原从孟加拉湾输送到虚假降水中心地区的水汽偏强,从而为虚假的强对流降水形成提供了充足的水汽条件.因此,在改进气候模式对东亚季风区虚假降水的模拟性能时,除了对模式物理过程做改进外,在青藏高原附近地区的水汽分布和水汽输送以及对流层上层西风急流位置和强度模拟的合理性方面也需要引起足够的重视.     

登陆我国的热带风暴近海异常路径的统计分析

对1949—2000年间登陆我国的热带风暴的异常路径及其特征进行统计了分析。结果发现，路径异常热带风暴的偏折点主要出现在海南岛东南部海域、珠江口附近海域及台湾海峡。该类热带风暴多发生于7—9月。其发生频率有明显的年际、年代际变化，以20世纪70—90年代的频率较高。强度(中心风速)较弱和移速较慢的热带风暴易出现异常偏折。     

2009年秋季云南降水极端偏少的显著异常气候特征分析

 2009年秋季云南出现了大范围降水极端偏少现象,导致秋季全省库塘蓄水严重不足,成为后期云南出现秋、冬、春和初夏连旱的主要原因之一.因此,通过相关分析和平均值显著性检验方法分析了此次云南秋季降水极端偏少的异常气候特征.结果表明:造成2009年秋季云南大范围降水极端偏少的最主要原因是亚洲极涡显著偏弱,持续偏强偏西的西太平洋副热带高压阻挡了东亚冷空气的向南入侵,使得冷空气明显偏北偏东.而孟加拉湾地区对流层中低层的异常反气旋环流使得赤道索马里附近由南向北的越赤道气流异常偏西偏北,且阻挡了西南气流向云南输送水汽.可见,干燥的对流层大气以及较弱的垂直上升运动是云南区域内高低层大气表现最异常的特征.相关分析还发现,云南秋季降水与南半球极地及中高纬高度场都存在显著的相关关系,与赤道西太平洋地区的对流活动具有显著正相关,且2009年在显著相关区域内高度场和赤道西太平洋对流都表现出不利于云南秋季降水偏多的显著异常气候特征.     

2009/2010年初夏拉萨干旱成因及影响分析

文章从2009/2010年初夏（5/6月）环流指数特征、月平均环流场特征、500hpa环流场以及气象要素变化特征等方面分析了初夏干旱的基本成因。结果表明,造成初夏干旱的主要原因有：青藏高原属高压控制型,即西太平洋热带高压强度偏强,其位置明显偏西,控制高原,高原上盛行偏西气流或偏北气流;高压控制的印度西北部抑制了水汽输送;伊朗高压呈东北西南向,此时西太平洋副热带高压脊线在25毅N左右,位置偏南或强度偏弱。     

云南初春极端冷暖灾害事件的对比分析

利用云南1961～2009年2月的平均气温资料,采用异常指数对云南2008,2009年初春出现的极端低温雨雪冰冻和极端高温少雨干旱灾害事件做了空间分布、历史排位、冷暖异常趋势分析;利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了云南省2008年和2009年初春极端冷暖异常灾害事件天气成因.结果表明:2008年初春是近40年来的最冷年,2009年初春则是有气象记录以来的最暖年;云南初春东部平均气温从20世纪80年代以来有向暖异常演变的趋势,2000年以来,极端暖异常现象十分突出.北半球东亚中高纬500hPa高度距平场2008年2月呈"正负正"、2009年2月呈"负正负"的相反分布.乌山阻高异常偏强,冷空气活动频繁,南支槽异常偏强,导致2008年初春云南极端异常低温冰雪灾害;而乌山阻高偏弱,东亚大槽异常偏东,冷空气主体偏东,印度副高异常偏强,南支槽异常偏弱,导致云南2009年初春极端高温异常干旱灾害.     

青藏高原四季大气热源气候态特征分析

利用NCEP的CFSR再资料分析了青藏高原上空四季大气热源的水平分布和垂直结构特征.结果表明:在水平分布上,春季和夏季,青藏高原上空大气是分布不均匀的热源,而秋季和冬季是比较均匀的弱冷源;在春季(3—5月),青藏高原主体上空呈现不均匀的弱热源,青藏高原东部边缘和西部边缘、南部边缘地区呈现较强热源,在喜马拉雅山脉一带也呈现强度不均匀的热源区;夏季,热源强度略强于春季,在整个亚洲大陆上最强的热源中心不在青藏高原上,而在青藏高原南侧及孟加拉湾中东部一带,另外高原西侧冈底斯山脉附近和喜马拉雅山脉中东部边缘一带还呈现弱冷源;秋季,青藏高原南部边缘及其以南的大陆地区表现为热源,且存在较强的热源中心,青藏高原东侧边缘也存在小范围的弱热源区;冬季,青藏高原上空大气呈现均匀的弱冷源;在青藏高原西部边缘及喜马拉雅山脉北侧呈现弱热源区;仅在冬季,青藏高原上空感热加热呈现为负值;不区分季节的情况下,青藏高原西南部上空的感热加热强于东北部;青藏高原西侧边缘、南部边缘和东南部上空的潜热加热永远强于青藏高原主体,而青藏高原主体长波辐射加热值大于南部边缘及东南部地区.在垂直结构上,春季和夏季大气整体表现为热源层,春季热源层厚度约为冷源层的3倍,夏季热源层厚度大致为冷源层的6倍;秋季,大气总加热在500 hPa层以下表现热源层,而500～150 hPa表现冷源层,且冷源层强度比夏季较强;冬季,大气总加热整体上表现冷源层,只有675 hPa附近到550 hPa层表现很薄的热源层,冷源层的厚度约为热源层的6倍;不分季节,青藏高原上空700～450 hPa感热加热分量项和大气总非绝热加热垂直廓线分布基本一致,而450～100 hPa潜热加热分量项和大气总非绝热加热垂直廓线分布基本类似;除冬季大气总非绝热加热基本表现为弱冷源外,其余季节低层均表现热源,而高层表现弱冷源,但层级的热状况强度方面仍存在明显的季节性差异.     

反应器内Taylor涡胞结构的数值研究

采用计算流体力学方法对化学反应器内的Taylor涡胞结构进行了数值模拟,研究了在不同雷诺数Re条件下Taylor涡胞的结构特点及其生长方式受Re的影响规律.研究结果表明,随着Re的增加,Taylor涡胞先从上下两端部产生,并且底部固壁端Taylor涡胞的生成总要先于顶部自由面端部,随后Taylor涡胞由两端逐步向中心生长,直至系统的Re大于临界Re后,整个轴向间隙内均充满Taylor涡胞;轴向Taylor涡胞的强度并不一致,下端部固壁附近Taylor涡胞强于顶部自由面附近的Taylor涡胞,而中心位置的涡胞强度最弱.     

赤道太平洋障碍层的年际演变及其与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动事件的关联

利用2004—2017年BOA_Argo网格数据集系统分析了赤道太平洋障碍层厚度的年际演变及其与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)事件的关联.在年平均意义上,热带太平洋障碍层在暖池区存在明显的年际变动,其厚度变化幅度可达15m以上.多变量经验正交函数分解的主模态表明:西太平洋暖池区降水与障碍层的异常场分布型态吻合,都呈现明显的东(正)西(负)反相位分布,降水的正(负)异常造成了障碍层的正(负)异常;且与ENSO事件高度相关(相关系数0.87),存在显著的2～4年的年际变化主周期信号.针对赤道太平洋障碍层的纬向迁移分析表明:对应于厄尔尼诺(拉尼娜)年,赤道太平洋偏厚的障碍层位置显著东(西)移,且与暖池东部边缘和海表盐度(SSS)锋的纬向迁移大致处于同一位相.在大多数情况下,较厚的障碍层局限于暖池的东部边缘内(170°W以西),位于SSS锋附近或偏西;SSS锋附近的障碍层可能归因于水平平流、强降水及开尔文波.在2015年9月至2016年2月期间,赤道中太平洋的SSS锋消失,对应着厚障碍层的消失,表明厚障碍层的位置与西太平洋暖池东部边缘内SSS锋的纬向位置密切相关.     

Large-scale atmospheric singularities and summer long-cycle droughts-floods abrupt alternation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

The summer droughts and floods in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (MLYRV) have often been one of the basic contents of the pre- cipitation forecasting during the flooding period in China. Lots of studies suggest that summer rainfa…     

Interannual variability of the Meiyu onset over Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley and analyses of its previous strong influence signal

Meiyu onset (MO) over Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley (YHRV) possesses obvious characteristics of interannual variations. Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets, NOAA OLR and ERSST data, the in-terannual variability of MO(IVMO) and its previous strong influence signal (PSIS) are investigated. The possible mechanisms that the PSIS affecting IVMO are also discussed. The results show that the pre-vious CP-ENSO (Central Pacific El Nio/Southern Oscillation) event is the PSIS affecting IVMO and it has a better accu...     

NCEP/NCAR(Ⅰ、Ⅱ)和ERA40再分析加热资料比较

 气候统计和诊断分析常用到NCEP-1、NCEP-2和ERA 40再分析资料。其中的加热资料为C类资料,对其使用常常存疑。对上述3类资料中的垂直积分的总加热率和地表感热通量进行比较,以分析其在亚洲地区特别是在高原和亚洲热带地区的适用性。结果表明：垂直积分的总非绝热加热在空间分布上三套资料基本一致,NCEP两套资料在大值中心的分布上相似,但量值上NCEP-2和ERA-40比较接近,此外ERA-40在青藏高原南缘的加热估算比NCEP大;对于青藏高原区域平均的非绝热加热,无论是季节变化还是年际变率,三套资料在量级以及变化趋势上都有较好的一致性,特别是平均感热通量的年际变化,三者相关系数超过99％甚至99.9%置信度检验,因此对亚洲包括青藏高原地区使用再分析加热率资料,在一定程度上是合理可行的。     

Dust storms and loess accumulation on the Tibetan Plateau：A case study of dust event on 4 March 2003 in Lhasa

Whether the Tibetan Plateau is a significant dust source area is of great importance, because this is related to the understanding of sources, accumulation and environmental effects of dusts on the Tibetan Plateau and inthe Far East-Pacific Ocean regions as well as to the evointion of coupling of the Tibetan Plateau and atmaspbere-oeean-continent exchange. Synoptic dynamics and remote sensing tracing of a dust storm on 3 to 5 March, 2003 in Lhasa onSouth Tibet demonstrate that the Tibetan Plateau possessesall factors and conditions of generating dust storms. Accompanied with this dust storm is a strong ascending stream onthe Plateau which has raised various sizes of durst particlesinto different levels. The lifted coarse particles were largelyfallen down and accumulated as loess on the eastern TibetanPlateau, and the fine particles were translated by the westerly jet and subsided in the northern Pacific Ocean. The spa-tial-temporal distribution of dust-storms between years 1961and 2000 ou the Plateau shows that duststorms mainly occurin winter and early spring with high frequency, and tile pathof dust storm moves gradually from south to north, which isclosely coupled with the northward moving of the westerlyjet from winter to spring over the Tibetan Plateau. Com-pared with other twelve dust source areas in China. the Ti-betan Plateau is one of the key dust souree areas for thelong-distance transport because its high occurring frequencyand elevation cause fine particles easily to be lifted into thezone of the westerly jet.     

Significant relationship between spring AO and the summer rainfall along the Yangtze River

The influence of spring AO on the summer rainfall along the Yangtze River is investigated. The long-term rainfall observations are filtered to remove the low-frequency variations longer than 10 years. The inter-annual components show a high correlation to AO in the last hundred years. The strongest correlation appears for May AO and summer rainfall with a value of -0.39, significant above the 99% confidence level. Associated with one standard deviation stronger May AO index, the rainfall over the Yangtze River to the southern Japan decreases by about 3%-9%, while, at the same time increases by about 3%-6% in the northern China and far-eastern Russia. The coherent changes in rainfall are significantly related to the East Asian summer jet stream in the upper troposphere. When there is stronger AO in spring, the jet stream tends to move polarward in summer, and leads the rainfall-belt to move northward too. That gives rise to a drier condition in the Yangtze River valley, wetter anomalies in northern China. This signal would be helpful for the summer rainfall prediction in China.     

Late Miocene–early Pleistocene paleoproductivity variations of the Lop Nor in the Tarim Basin and its implications on aridification in Asian Interior

Extensive lacustrine deposits in the eastern Tarim Basin provide records of climate change influenced by the westerly winds and the Asian monsoon. To char- acterize the evolution of climate change in this region, we analyze elemental concentrations of barium （Ba） from the Ls2 drill core of Lop Nor, a paleo-lakebed located in the eastern Tarim Basin. Biogenic Ba concentrations from this drill core display a large-amplitude oscillation that gener- ally follows a pattern similar to that of Artemisia content and ostracod assemblages, suggesting that is may serve as an index for climate change experienced in the basin. Our results indicate that biogenic Ba is especially sensitive to precipitation. All climatic proxies served in this study vary significantly over late Miocene to early Pleistocene time period. Strong aridification of eastern Tarim in the late Miocene to the early Pliocene may be attributed to a lati- tudinal shift in the westerly winds, which would have resulted in more moisture transported to southern and eastern Tibet. The growth of the Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau may have acted as an orographic barrier that blocked moisture sourced in the south from the northern margins of the plateau. We link weaker aridification in the late Pliocene to an increased intensity of the Indian Monsoon.     

Relationship between the simulated East Asian westerly jet biases and seasonal evolution of rainbelt over eastern China

Due to the particular geographical location and topog- raphical features, the East Asia exhibits prominent mon- soonal climate with significant seasonal variation and complex spatial distribution of climatic elements. There are many difficulties in simulating and forecasting the weather and climate over East Asia by using climate model system. Generally speaking, the capability and performance of the currently widely-used climate modelsin East Asia are not satisfied. It is of scientific sign…     

Interannual variation of North China rainfall in rainy season and SSTs in the equatorial eastern Pacific

The rainfall in North China during rainy season （July and August （JA）） exhibits a strong interannual variability. In this study, the atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies associated with the interannual variation of JA North China rainfall are examined. It is found that on the interannual timescale, the JA North China rainfall is associated with significant SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and the North China rainfall and SST anomaly in the equatorial eastern Pacific correspond to the similar variation of the upper-level westerly jet stream over East Asia. A possible mechanism is proposed for the influence of the SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific on the North China rainfall.     

The leading correlation of the winter Aleutian Low with surface air temperature during the subsequent summer over the Arctic and its possible mechanism

The variations of surface air temperature(SAT)over the Arctic are closely related to global climate change.Based on reanalysis datasets and a newly defined Aleutian Low intensity index,we found a good correlation between intensity of winter Aleutian Low and the SAT over the Arctic during the subsequent summer.Explanations were given using correlation analysis,composite analysis,and singular value decomposition methods.When intensity of winter Aleutian Low was weaker,sea surface temperature appeared higher in the North Pacific in the subsequent spring and summer,resulting in mean meridional circulation anomalies and 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies in spring and summer.Anomalous upward motion in mid-latitudes and downward motion in high latitudes(Ferrel cell weakening)transported the warmer air to the north from lower layer to the upper layer followed by increases in the SAT over the Arctic.Anomalous downward motion over about 75°N also caused consequent adiabatic warming and contributed to inhibit the heat transportation from surface to upper layer.Negative 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies existed in mid-latitudes and positive anomalies existed in high latitudes.The pattern(low-in-south and high-in-north)benefited from increasing the inflow volume flux of the Bering Strait,which also made the SAT over the Arctic increase.The results of this study reveal the process that the summer SAT over the Arctic was modulated by interannual variability of intensity of winter Aleutian Low.     

Linkage between winter sea surface temperature east of Australia and summer precipitation in the Yangtze River valley and a possible physical mechanism

The relationship between winter sea surface temperature (SST) east of Australia and summer precipitation in the Yangtze River valley and a possibly related physical mechanism were investigated using observation data. It is found that winter SST east of Australia is correlated positively to summer precipitation in the Yangtze River valley. When the SST east of Australia becomes warmer in winter, the western Pacific subtropical high and the East Asian westerly jet tend to shift southward the following summer, concurrent with low-level southwesterly anomalies over eastern China. These conditions favor precipitation increase in the Yangtze River valley, whereas the opposite conditions favor precipitation decrease. The influence of winter SST east of Australia on East Asian summer atmospheric circulations may occur in two ways. First, by an anomalous SST signal east of Australia in winter that persists through the following summer, thus affecting East Asian atmospheric circulations via the inter-hemispheric teleconnection. Second, when the SST east of Australia is warmer in winter, higher SST appears simultaneously in the southwest Indian Ocean and subsequently develops eastward by local air-sea interaction. As a result, the SST in the Maritime Continent increases in summer, which may lead to an anomalous change in East Asian summer atmospheric circulations through its impact on convection.