基于衰变-Markov模型的沥青路面性能预测研究

为解决在路面使用性能各项指标的预测过程中,预测值与实测值间误差波动较大这一问题,采取同济大学孙立军教授提出的标准衰变方程作为预测模型的基础,充分调查浙江省S101省道嘉兴段现有路况,根据收集的公路路面结构、厚度和交通量轴载数据等资料,对其沥青路面性能变化进行预测,即对路面损坏状况指数PCI和行驶质量指数RQI这两个在路面使用性能指数PQI中占较大权重的指标进行预测,继而采用Markov模型对其预测结果进行修正,建立与养护策略相对应的Markov转移矩阵而得到衰变-Markov预测模型,为之后能准确掌握沥青路面使用性能变化趋势并得到合理的养护决策提供可靠依据.

Pavement Performance Prediction of Highway Based on the Decay-Markov Prediction Model

In the forecasting process of pavement performance indicators,there is usually the error fluctuation between the predicted value and measured value because of using different maintenance methods.In order to solve this problem,the prediction model based on the standard decay equation suggested by Professsor Sun Lijun of Tongji University was taken as the basis of prediction model for forecasting the performance variation of a certain number of sections on the Jiaxing part of S101 provincial road.According to the data about the pavement structure,its thickness and the volume of traffic,the weight values of pavement surface condition index (PCI) and riding quality index (RQI) which are the most dominant among the commonly used pavement quality indices (PQI) were predicted.The predicted data of decay equation were further revised by adopting the Markov transfer matrix method,which provides a reliable basis for the next maintenance decision.