洞庭湖区东方田鼠种群数量变化的系统动力学研究

根据系统动力学的原理和方法，运用系统动力学分析软件STELLA，建立了具有年龄结构的东方田鼠（Microtus fortis）种群动态变化模型.通过模拟分析，研究了该种群数量变化的特征，探讨了洞庭湖区东方田鼠种群增长的一般性规律，并对鼠害灾变过程进行模拟.研究结果表明，东方田鼠出生率和死亡率对种群的增长具有较大影响，而初始种群数量不是鼠灾发生的关键因子.提出了采用生物防治的方法，恢复洞庭湖区生物多样性，特别是在洲滩增加东方田鼠的天敌等生态策略是最理想的防控鼠灾措施.

Systematic Dynamical Analysis on the Population Change of Microtus Fortis in Dongting Lake Area

The frequent occurence of rat(Microtus fortis) disaster in Dongting Lake Area induced great loss on agriculture.Based on the ecological theory,the software STELLA for systematic dynamical analysis was used to simulate the rat population change in Dongting Lake area.An age-structured dynamic model for rat population change was constructed.By imitation analysis,the characteristics of rat population change was studied,and the general rules and the catastrophe process of its population dynamics were discussed.The research indicated that the influence of the birth rate and death rate on population growth was significant,but the initial population was not the key factor.Some control strategies of rat disaster in Dongting Lake Area were proposed.We suggested to use biological methods,such as restoring the natural enemies of the rat in the Lake area,to increase the biodiversity,so as to control the rat disaster.