基于粗糙集重心理论的公路隧道塌方风险分析

传统的模糊综合评判风险分析中权重确定过分依赖专家打分与主观调查法,且可能造成评判结论模糊.针对这些缺陷,引入粗糙集重心理论计算出客观权重集,并避免了某些小权重因素被“丢失”的现象.结合近15年来120处详实的隧道塌方事故统计资料,确定了包含地质因素、设计施工质量等在内的6大塌方风险因素,应用粗糙集理论中的决策表方法计算各因素的客观权重,并采用模糊重心理论中以正态分布作为各评价因素隶属函数的做法,建立了以粗糙集与模糊重心理论为基础的公路隧道施工期塌方评估方法.最后将该评估方法应用于工程实例中,并与传统的模糊综合评判分析方法和工程实际情况进行了对比,验证了本文方法的适用性与准确性.

Fuzzy Evaluation of Collapse Incidents in Highway Tunnel Construction Based on Rough Set and Barycenter Theory

The conclusion may be blurred and subjective in the traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of risk analysis because of the weight set over-reliance on expert scoring and subjective survey method. In response to these shortcomings, the introduction of rough set theory can help us to calculate the weight of the objective set and to avoid the "lost" phenomenon of the smaller weight factors. With 120 detailed tunnel collapse accident statistics in the past 15 years, we can identify the six major landslides risk factors, including geological factors, design and construction quality and so on. By the application of rough set theory in the decision table method, we can also calculate the factors of the objective weight and use the fuzzy theory to focus on the evaluation factors as normal membership function approach. Then, we can establish tunnel construction period collapse assessment method on the basis of the rough set theory and theory of barycenter of fuzzy set. Finally, using the assessment methods in the engineering project, we find this method can verify the applicability and it is more accurate, compared with the traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and practical engineering analysis method.