淮河上游地区降雨径流分析及模拟

为了掌握淮河流域的水情信息，对淮河干流王家坝以上流域的降雨径流进行分析和模拟。采用流域内1985-2007年的站点历史资料对降雨径流进行分析，并且应用分布式SWAT模型，采用SCE-UA算法进行参数自动校准并进行检验，建立降雨径流月尺度模拟模型。分析发现流域年降水量50%集中在6-8月，并且淮南山区息县及潢川子流域的月平均径流和径流系数都大于属于淮北平原区的班台子流域。息县、潢川、班台及王家坝月径流的模拟结果确定性系数分别达到0.77、0.81、0.69和0.80。淮河上游地区的降雨存在明显的季节集中性，并且淮南山区和淮北平原区因地势不同使产流特征不同。流域中水利工程设施的应用对天然降雨径流过程的改变产生很大影响，使班台子流域的模拟结果差于其他子流域。研究区属于径流资料短缺地区，分布式水文模型的建立充分反映了下垫面的已知信息，弥补了径流资料短缺的不足之处。

Rainfall-runoff analysis and simulation for upstream area of Huaihe River

In order to obtain information on the water regime of the Huaihe River Basin, the rainfall and runoff in the catchment upstream of the Wangjiaba sub-basin, in the main stream of the Huaihe River, were analyzed and simulated. Historical data from 1985 to 2007 in the basin were used for rainfall-runoff analysis. The distributed SWAT model was used for monthly rainfall-runoff simulation, and the SCE-UA algorithm was used for automatic calibration of parameters. The results show that 50% of annual rainfall was concentrated in the period from June to August. The mean monthly runoff and runoff coefficients of the Xixian and Huangchuan sub-basins in the southern mountainous area were higher than those of the Bantai sub-basin in the northern plain area. The determination coefficients of the simulation results of monthly runoff in the Xixian, Huangchuan, Bantai, and Wangjiaba sub-basins were 0. 77, 0. 81, 0. 69, and 0. 80, respectively. The rainfall in the upstream area of the Huaihe River areas shows a significantly seasonal centrality. The characteristics of runoff of the southern mountainous area and northern plain area are different due to terrain difference. The water conservancy facilities have significant influence on the change of rainfall-runoff processes, resulting in the simulated results of the Bantai sub-basin being inferior to those of other sub-basins. The study area is a runoff data-deficient area, and the distributed hydrological model adequately reflects the given information of the underlying surface, which can offset this deficiency.