中国证券市场泡沫问题实证研究

中国证券市场的泡沫问题一直是各界关注的一个焦点。本文运用剩余价值模型,针对1994~2007年的A股市场,分别从市场整体和行业局部的两个视角对进行了泡沫问题的实证研究,得出了我国证券市场长期以来存在泡沫的结论。从市场角度而言,我国证券市场的内在价值保持相对稳定,而股票价格波动频繁,市场中的泡沫成分较多;从行业角度而言,不同的行业,泡沫成分明显不同。综合两者的共同点,市场泡沫波动频繁时期,行业泡沫亦增多,反之,亦然。

Empirical Research on Bubbles of Chinese Security Market

Bubbles of Chinese security market is a focus by all circles all along.Using the Residual Income Model,the paper measures bubbles of Chinese Ashare market from 1994 to 2007.Under the perspective between the market and the industry,we can both draw the conclusion that there are many bubbles in Chinese Security Market.In the one hand,the result of the market angle shows that the intrinsic value of Chinese A-share market remained stable while the price of stock fluctuated frequently,which mean the A-share mark...