改革以来我国国际收支变动的实证分析

改革以来我国国际收支规模不断扩大，内容不断充实，外汇储备迅速上升，并且收支的变动呈现出阶段性特点，改革开放，经济增长和国际收支调节政策是形成上述特点的内部原因，国际环境的变化是其外部原因，在新的经济形势下，国际收支高节政策的目标和手段应有所调整，国际收支未来的发展趋势是规模还将扩大，但空间不限，顺差还会维持，但结构会有所改变。

The Empirical Analysis on Fluctuations of the Balance Payment in China from Reform

With the content onriching , the scale of the balance payment of China increasingly expands, the foreign change reserve fund rapidly rises, and the fluctuations of the balance payment were phased over the period. Reform and open, the economic grow and the adjusting policy are internal cause with the external cause that the international surrourdings change. In a new economic situation ,the targets and means of the adjusting policy should restructure.