基于群体决策的装备重要性多想定空间分析

为提高对装备论证不确定性因素的定量分析能力，依据未来可能承担任务、应具备能力、拟发展装备间内在逻辑关系，提出了基于群体决策的装备重要性多想定空间分析方法。实例应用表明：对比多个典型想定牵引发展的装备体系能兼顾其未来应用的多种可能，有助于解决应急调整装备建设方案带来的后续难题；突出了体系作战能力在装备需求论证中的纽带作用；对可能受主观因素影响的模型权重、输入变量等进行探索性分析，提高了重点装备选择的科学可信性。

Exploratory analysis on key equipment under multi-scenarios based on group decision

In order to face the increasing uncertainties in the development process of the armament, the paper gives the method of exploratory analysis on key equipment under multi-scenarios based on the logical relationship between the missions, capabilities and equipments. The case study indicates that the weapon system of systems based on multi-scenarios can face many kinds of uncertainties and can help us avoiding the problems coming from the development process of the armament which is forced to be changed when meeting emergencies. The method sticks out the bridge linking of capabilities in the equipment requirement procedure. Exploratory analysis on the variables which may be influenced by subjective experience can increase the credibility of the choice of key equipment.