基于涌现鉴别的安全性分析

工程上对系统要素潜在危险交互作用的鉴别方法有迫切需求。论述了工程系统安全性是一种涌现特性，指出应将其作为复杂系统问题来开展研究。综合运用复杂性研究成果、功能模拟原理、目标树-成功树建模技术，提出了基于一体化安全风险模型开展涌现鉴别研究的基本方法。结合“阿波罗15号”飞船案例，验证了基于安全风险模型开展涌现鉴别的适用性。研究成果为解决复杂工程系统安全性问题提供了新的思路和分析手段。

Safety analysis based on emergence identification

It is in urgent need of the new analysis methods that are used to identify the potential hazardous interactions among components in the engineering system. After discussing the engineering system safety as an emergent property, the paper suggests that the research on safety should be viewed as a complex system problem. By means of the complexity theory, functional modeling principle, and goal tree-success tree modeling technique, a method based on the integrated safety risk model is presented for investigating and identifying the emergence. Taking the Apollo 15 spaceship incident as an example, the model is illustrated in the application of identifying emergence. As a result of that, the proposed modeling method is demonstrated to be an alternative way of solving the safety problem in complex engineering systems.