北京地区春季主要园林树木的花期预测研究

近年来，随着春季赏花旅游项目的兴起，使花期预测的重要性，日益突显，本文利用北京地区物候观测资料，选择了始花期分布于初春、仲春、晚春，在北京地区具有代表性、指示意义和一定观赏价值的8种乔灌木，依据物候现象的顺序相关规律，采用回归分析的方法，建立春季观花树木的花期预报模型，通过检验，预报效果良好。

Research on the Forecast of the Gardening Plants Blooming in Spring Time in Beijing Area

In recent years, with the touring booming and the appreciation for flowers, the forecast for flowers blooming time seems to be more and more important. This article is to analyse and tries to establish different blooming time forecast module, with the method of regression analyzing based on the sequence and relative regularities of the phenology phenomenon. We have chose eight different kinds of arbors and shrubs, which are fugurative in Beijing area and their blooming seasons are around the beginning of spring, the mid spring and late spring, and are based on the materials on observations of phenology and its in Beijing area. The outcome of the forecast is quite successful through the on the site measurement and verifications in the year 2004 and also with all the feedbacks we have.