| 叠加马尔可夫链模型在雨季强度指数预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 沈永梅,夏乐天. 叠加马尔可夫链模型在雨季强度指数预测中的应用[J]. 河海大学学报(自然科学版), 2006, 34(4): 477-480 |
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| 作者姓名： | 沈永梅 夏乐天 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学理学院,江苏,南京,210098;河海大学理学院,江苏,南京,210098 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据雨季降水过程中的不确定性和非精确性特点,用有序聚类法(即最优分割法)建立华北地区雨季强度指数的状态分类标准,并以1951~1994年华北地区雨季强度指数所处的状态为依据,用叠加马尔可夫链预测方法来预测1995年和1996年华北地区雨季强度指数所处的状态.结果表明,叠加马尔可夫链预测方法计算方便,结果准确,可为雨季强度指数状态预测分析提供一种新的途径.
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| 关 键 词： | 华北地区 雨季强度指数 马尔可夫链模型 有序聚类法 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-1980（2006）04-0477-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-02-20 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-02-20 |
SPMCP model and its application to prediction of rainfall intensity index for rainy season |
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| SHEN Yong-mei,XIA Le-tian. SPMCP model and its application to prediction of rainfall intensity index for rainy season[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences ), 2006, 34(4): 477-480 |
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| Authors: | SHEN Yong-mei XIA Le-tian |
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| Affiliation: | College of Sciences, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China |
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| Abstract: | In consideration of the uncertainty and inaccuracy of precipitation process in the rainy season,a classification standard for rainfall intensity index of the rainy season was established by use of the sequential cluster method.Based on state of rainfall intensity index for the rainy season of North China from 1951 to 1994,the state of the index of North China for 1995 and 1996 was predicted by use of SPMCP model.The results show that SPMCP model is simple and accurate in calculation,and it provides a new way to predict the state of rainfall intensity index for the rainy season. |
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| Keywords: | North China rainfall intensity index of rainy season Markov chain model sequential cluster method |
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