| 电力系统短期负荷预测方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵永升,宋丽华,唐新亭.电力系统短期负荷预测方法研究[J].曲阜师范大学学报,2005,31(3):79-82,94. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵永升 宋丽华 唐新亭 |
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| 作者单位： | 鲁东大学计算机科学与技术学院,264025,山东省烟台市;鲁东大学计算机科学与技术学院,264025,山东省烟台市;鲁东大学计算机科学与技术学院,264025,山东省烟台市 |
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| 基金项目： | 鲁东大学校青年基金项目(034101). |
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| 摘 要： | 采用混沌理论进行电力系统短期负荷预测，对利用Lyapunov指数算法进行负荷预测作了介绍，包括用混沌理论实现相空间的重构，以及通过计算关联维得到最优嵌入维数的方法、计算Lyapunov指数的方法和利用Lyapunov指数得到预测负荷数值的过程．实例预测结果，证明了算法的有效性，揭示了采用混沌理论进行短期负荷预测的优越性。
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| 关 键 词： | 混沌 短期负荷预测 Lyapunov指数 人工神经网络 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-5337(2005)03-0079-04 |
Study on Short-Term Load Forecast Method for Power System |
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| ZHAO Yong-sheng,SONG Li-hua,TANG Xin-ting.Study on Short-Term Load Forecast Method for Power System[J].Journal of Qufu Normal University(Natural Science),2005,31(3):79-82,94. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Yong-sheng SONG Li-hua TANG Xin-ting |
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| Abstract: | This paper mainly introduces the method of Short-Term electric power load forecast. The Short-Term Load Forecast (STLF)study for power system is the important basis for the realization of power market. The Chaotic theory is used to forecast the short-term load of power system. The application of Lyapunov index algorithm in load forecast is introduced, including the rebuilding of phrase space by Chaotic, the obtaining of best inserting dimension via relative dimension calculation, the Lyapunov index calculation method and the forecast procedure with the index. The validity of the algorithm is proved by the analysis of practical forecasting results and the advantage of adopting the chaotic theory in STLF is also discussed. |
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| Keywords: | chaotic short-term load forecast (STLF) Lyapunov index artificial nerve network (ANN) |
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