基于改进对抗解释结构模型和交叉影响矩阵相乘法的多航站区分区运行设计影响因素分析

针对大型民用运输机场多航站楼、多机坪复杂布局形式，为科学确定多航站区分区使用模式。在构建多航站区分区运行影响因素集的基础上，运用模糊集理论对对抗解释结构模型(Adversarial Interpretive Structure Modeling Method, AISM)进行改进，通过模糊可达矩阵对水平截距分布进行深入分析，进而得到多航站区分区运行影响因素的多层级模型。最后结合对抗层级拓扑图以及模糊驱动力-依赖性图对因素之间的关联性和逻辑性进行分析，并以粤港澳大湾区某干线机场的远期规划进行实例验证。结果表明：航空公司年旅客运量和航空公司高峰小时旅客数量驱动力较高而依赖性较低；机位分配与使用策略、分散式航站楼间捷运系统的通达性驱动力较低而依赖性较高。综合对抗层级拓扑图所揭示的表层、中间层、深层影响因素可知，航司年旅客运量和高峰小时旅客数量是影响分区运行设计的最根源和关键的因素。

Analysis of Design Influencing Factors of Multi-terminal Area Operation Based on Improved AISM-MICMAC

For the complex layout of large civil transport airports with multiple terminals and aprons, to scientifically determine the usage pattern of the multi-terminal area, based on the construction of multi-terminal area operation influence factors set, the AISM model is improved by using the Fuzzy Theory, The horizontal intercept distribution is in-depth analyzed by the fuzzy reachable matrix, and then the confrontation hierarchy model of multi-terminal area operation influence factors is obtained. Finally, the correlation and logic between the factors are analyzed by the topology diagram of the adversarial hierarchy and the fuzzy driver-dependency diagram, and the long-term planning of one of the trunk airports of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is used as an example to verify. The results show that the annual airline passenger traffic and the number of airline peak hour passengers have higher driving force and weaker dependence; the airline space allocation and utilization strategy and the accessibility of the decentralized inter-terminal MRT system have lower driving force and higher dependence. Combining the surface, intermediate, and deep influencing factors revealed by the confrontation hierarchy topology diagram, it is clear that annual airline passenger traffic and peak hour passenger count are the most root and critical design influencing factors of zonal operation.