| 山西省耕地承载能力预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 张锐波,张丽萍. 山西省耕地承载能力预测模型[J]. 山西师范大学学报：自然科学版, 1993, 0(1) |
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| 作者姓名： | 张锐波 张丽萍 |
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| 作者单位： | 山西师大地理系，山西师大地理系 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文应用灰色系统理论,建立GM(1.1)模型,预测山西省2000年人均耕地、粮食单产,得出人均耕地减少速度大于单产增加速度,人均消费粮食趋于减少的结果。解决这问题的关键是解决人地剪刀差问题及提高粮食单产。
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| 关 键 词： | 人均耕地 粮食单产 灰色系统理论 预测 |
The Prediction Models of Cultivatee land Carrying Capacity in Shanxi Provice |
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| Zhang Ruibo Zhang Liping. The Prediction Models of Cultivatee land Carrying Capacity in Shanxi Provice[J]. Journal of Shanxi Teachers University, 1993, 0(1) |
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| Authors: | Zhang Ruibo Zhang Liping |
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| Affiliation: | Zhang Ruibo Zhang Liping |
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| Abstract: | This paper predicts the amount of cultivated land per person and theyield of cultivated per mu with theory of grey system by building GM(1. 1) models.Then, it reaches a condusion that the speed of decrease in cultivated Land per person willbe faster than the speed of increase in yield of cultivated land per mu, and that the a-mount of consuming grain per person will tend to derease in the 2000year. The key of so-lution for this problem is to solve the problem of population increase and caltiveted landdecrease and to raise the per mu yield. |
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| Keywords: | cultivated Land per person grain yield per unit the theory of grey system prediction. |
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