软岩隧道挤压变形的概率模型

软岩隧道的挤压变形是深部高地应力区岩石地下工程中的主要地质灾害之一，对其发生的可能性及其分级的预测是工程建设中必须解决的重大问题。基于概率分析理论，通过研究挤压性围岩大变形破坏机理，建立了软岩隧道挤压变形发生的概率及挤压程度分级模型。影响挤压变形的两个主要因素是岩体单轴抗压强度σcm和初始垂直地应力P0，将强度应力比σcm／p0作为判别因子建立挤压变形概率模型。利用该模型对国内鸟鞘岭隧道工程挤压变形情况进行分析，结果与实际情况符合较好，说明该模型在研究隧道挤压变形发生的可能性及挤压程度分级中具有良好的实用性和有效性。

Probabilistic Model of Squeezing Deformation in Soft Rock Tunnel

The squeezing deformation problem of soft rock tunnel is one of the main geological hazards in rock engi- neering underground in deep high geological stress zone and the prediction of the possibility occurred and the classification of squeezing deformation are important issues to be solved in many engineering constructions. Through studying the mechanism of squeezing deformation and failure in surrounding rock and based on the principle of prob- abilistic analysis,a model for predicting the possibility and classification of squeezing deformation of soft rock tunnel was established. The main control factors of squeezing deformation such as uniaxial compressive strength σcm and initial vertical stress P0 were chosen for the analysis,and the σcm/Po was regarded as the discriminant factor of probabi- listic model. Squeezing deformation of Wuqiaoling tunnel was used for verifying the model and results showed that the model could be used to predict the possibility and classification of squeezing deformation in soft rock tunnel.