洪水预报误差置信限与误差评定方法研究

在实时洪水预报调度中，洪水预报误差的统计特性和误差置信限对调度风险的确定影响较大，为此，以三花间伊河卢氏流域为例研究了洪水预报误差的统计特性和误差置信限问题，结果表明，洪水预报误差通常具有有偏概率分布的特点，用现行水情预报精度标准及误差置信限评定方法对其进行评定时可能会出现两种不同的结果，但误差置信限评定方法比现行水情预报精度标准更为严格。

Methods for evaluation of errors and their confidence intervals for flood forecasting

In real-time flood forecasting and regulation, the statistical characteristics of flood forecasting errors and their confidence intervals are of great influence on the determination of risk of flood regulation. By study of the statistic characteristics of flood forecasting errors and their confidence intervals for Nushi watershed at Sanhuajian of the Yellow River and on the basis of a comparison of the precision criterion currently used for flood forecasting with the result of the error confidence interval method, it is concluded that the error of flood forecasting is of the characteristic of skew probability distribution, and that the evaluated results of forecasting errors are different by the above two methods. In the evaluation of forecasting errors, the error confidence interval method is stricter than the precision criterion currently used.