基于灰色马氏链模型的农村居民消费水平预测

选取2000—2018年全国农村居民消费水平为样本数据,对农村居民消费水平变化趋势进行研究.将灰色模型与马氏链模型相结合,建立灰色马氏链预测模型.通过对比发现,灰色马氏链模型能够提高预测精度,并利用灰色马氏链模型对2019—2025年的农村居民消费水平进行了预测.结果表明:农村居民消费水平有明显的上升趋势.

The Forecast of Consumption Level of Rural Residents Based on Grey Markov Chain Model

In this paper,the authors study the changing trend of rural residents' consumption levels by using the sample data from 2000 to 2018.A gray model and a Markov chain model are combined to establish a gray Markov chain prediction model.Comparatively,the gray Markov chain model can improve prediction accuracy.The gray Markov chain model is used to predict the consumption level of rural residents in 2019-2025.The results show that the consumption level of rural residents has a clear upward trend.