区域降雨的丰枯特性及其补偿特性分析

利用天津市北三河境内18个雨量站、1960--2005年共46年的年降雨量资料，依次对北运河、潮白河、蓟运河流域的年降雨进行了丰枯判别、连丰、连枯概率和稳定概率计算，并利用Kriging插值模型和集对理论对各流域间的降雨补偿特性进行了分析．结果表明：连续两年出现平水年的概率为最大；北运河流域的丰枯交替比其他流域频繁；北三河系各流域间的降雨量基本是正相关的，即遭遇的机会较多，存在一定的丰枯同步性，即自产水不利于补偿调节，易产生区域性的洪涝灾害和干旱缺水问题．

Analysis on Wet-Dry and Compensative Characteristics of Regional Rainfall

Through analysis of the annual rainfall data from 1960 to 2005 of 18 rainfall stations in Beisan River network in Tianjin,wet-dry year was determined ;probabilities of continuous wet years and dry years,and stable probability were calcu- lated;and finally,regional compensative characteristics were analyzed via Kriging model and set pair theory. The result shows that the occurence of two continuous normal years is most probable. The alternation of wet-dry years of Beiyun River Basin is more frequent than those of the other two basins. There is synchronism of precipitation with positive correlation among the three basins ,which means that the self-producing runoff goes against the compensative regulation, and is likely to result in regional flood disaster and water shortage.