海洋环境对索马里-印度洋地区海盗活动的影响

为准确评估海洋环境对海盗活动的影响及建立有效的海盗活动预警模型,按照海盗活动分布区域和海洋环境特征将索马里-印度洋海域划分为3个区域,在此基础上借助卫星数据对相关区域9a的海盗活动受海洋环境参数的影响进行了长时间尺度的匹配分析。研究结果表明,海洋中尺度现象(如中尺度涡)及其他特定海洋环境参数对海盗活动的范围和方式有重要影响,尤以有效波高(海况)、海面风速、海表流速及海表温度相关性影响较大。单独评估结果表明:当有效波高大于2.5m时,海盗很难活动;海面风速大于11m/s可确保海盗对商船没有威胁;海表流速小于0.3m/s时较适宜海盗活动。

Impact of oceanographic parameters on piracy activity in Somalia-Indian ocean region

Nine years of Piracy and multi-observation space-based data in Somalia-Indian ocean region were analyzed and investigated in a wide region scale. The aim is to establish the effective piracy warning model and accurate assessment of the impact of oceanographic parameters on the pirate attacks. It is indicated that Indian monsoon is not the only factor that has impacts on the piracy. The mesoscale phenomena, e.g., mesoscale eddies, and other marine environment parameters have significant effect on the range and manner of piracy. It is found that wave height (or sea scale), sea surface wind speed, sea surface current speed and sea surface temperature are the most important parameters for evaluating and predicting the piracy. For the evaluation of individual parameter, it can be concluded that the possibility of piracy is very small once the wave height is above 2.5 m. There are no threats of the piracy when the sea surface wind speeds exceed 11m/s. Moreover, most piracy has took place with the sea surface current speed of less than 0.3 m/s.