利率的期限结构与经济增长预期

利率的期限结构是指在某一特定时点不同到期期限利率的集合．经济理论表明利率的期限结构中包含了关于市场对未来利率的预期、货币当局的政策态度、经济增长预期、通货膨胀预期、就业以及经济周期等方面的经济信息．文章根据有关的经济理论研究利率期限结构对未来经济增长的解释和预测能力．实证结果表明，利率期限结构在一定的期间内能够对未来的经济增长做出解释和预测．

Term structure of interest rates and economic growth expectations

The paper studies the information in the term structure of interest rates. Economic theories show that the term structure of interest rates contains the information of prediction of future interest rate of the market, monetary policies of the government, prediction of the economic growth, inflation, employment, economic cycle, etc. Based on these theories, the paper discusses the term structure's forecasting ability for economic growth in the future. Empirical results show that the term structure of interest rates can forecast expected economic growth in certain periods.