基于系统动力学的应急物资调运速度影响因素研究

应急物资调运是应对非常规突发事件的重要环节,本文基于系统动力学,从政府应急管理的视角出发,研究影响应急物资调运速度的主要因素.本文将应急物资按需求分为两类——累积性需求物资和非累积性需求物资,并在此基础上构建了应急物资调运的一般系统动力学模型,并以2005年吉林石化双苯厂爆炸导致的松花江水污染事件为例,以当时最紧缺物资——活性炭的调运进行仿真验证.研究发现:在应急物资的补给过程中,政府对突发事件信息的反应时滞和政府应急物资调度能力起到了决定性作用.研究结果对于政府提高应急物资调运速度进而更好地应对非常规突发事件具有重要参考价值.

System-dynamics-based factor analysis for the speed of emergency materials transportation

Emergency materials transportation is one of the most important parts of unconventional emergency management. Using system dynamic model, this paper conducts the simulation study to identify the key influencing factors for the speed of emergency materials transportation. We firstly classify emergency materials into cumulative part and the non-cumulative part, and then construct a system dynamics analysis model for the emergency materials transportation. For verification, the transportation process of activated carbon in the 2005 Songhua river pollution accident is simulated empirically. Results from the simulation analysis show that the government emergency response delay and the capability of governmental emergency materials transportation are key factors in the process of emergency materials transportation. Work in this paper serves as important reference when the government formulating the policy to improve the speed and efficiency for the emergency materials transportation during the emergency management process.