企业退休职工养老金数学模型的研究

本文以山东省职工历年平均工资统计表为依据合理预测了未来25年的平均工资,在此基础上根据2009年该省某企业各年龄段工资分布表和养老金计算公式建立了养老金替代率和养老保险基金缺口数学模型,并计算出了企业职工自2000年起分别从30岁、40岁开始缴养老保险到退休(55岁,60岁,65岁)六种情况下的替代率,以及自2000年起从30岁开始缴养老保险到退休(55岁,60岁,65岁),领取养老金至75岁死亡三种情况下的养老保险缺口和收支平衡领取年数,得出了目前养老金制度下在未来25年不能达到预期替代率和养老基金账户会出现严重缺口的结论。通过模型分析提出了既要达到目标替代率,又要维持养老保险基金收支平衡,应该采取的有效措施。

Study on Pension of Enterprise Retired Staff Model

By using average wage statistics of Shandong Province over the years, the paper draws a reasonable forecast of the salary in the future 25 years. On the basis, we established the models of pension insurance replacement rate and gap of pension insurance funder according to pay slips in each age group of one company and calculation formula of pension. We calculated the replacement rate of six situations which include the enterprise staff at the age of 30 and 40 who paid the pension insurance fee from 2000 until they will retire （ age 55, 60 and 65 ）. We also calculated gap of pension insurance fund and the times of payment balance of pension insurance fund under other three conditions. These conditions include the staff at the age of 30 from 2000 who paid their fees until they will retire （ age 55, 60 and 65 ） and get pension from retirement to age 75. we comes to the conclusion that China won＇t reach to expectant replacement rate and serious gap of fund will appear under current pension system in the future. The paper also advances some effective measures which could reach the target substitute rate and maintain the payment balance of pension insurance funds at the same time.